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Ð.....there has been a saying as far back as I can remember, that interestingly has not really held true lately, but worth noting all the same......
Ð......Well here is the obvious reason for the LLY run. People are fat and lazy, the perfect combination for this drug
https://fortworthinc.com/news/powerful-new-obesity-drug-poised-to-upend-weight-loss-care/?oly_enc_id=2137J8767801F5G
Ð.....Shanghai Index is teetering on the edge. I find the story fascinating if not scary.
Ð.....I have a confession....
I have done a truly terrible job over the last year of monitoring my stocks. Since I've switched over to many dividend payers, I've just gotten lazy.
In looking today I'm noticing I've had some big gainers (PFE for example), that I've let them make big runs and didn't notice they've turned into losers. I was up 50% in PFE and am now down 5% (should add in the dividends I've been getting so I guess 4 years of 4% have still made it a positive trade), but it's not the only one I've let get away.
I let a big gain in GOOG turn into a current almost flat. Maybe it's time to consider either more mutual funds or less golf.
Ð.....All the indexes I'm following are sitting flat dab on the support lines. This means, it won't take much of a reversal down to take us in a bearish direction. On the other hand, if you have too much cash lying around, it's a decent time to throw some towards various stocks.
I've got some stocks that have made moves upward lately,
UVE (was going to take my profit this morning, but it is falling fast today) waiting for the bounce back up
LECO
HLN
KO
XOM
LEN
MSI (can't believe how well this has done)
SBUX
WMT
MSFT
Guess I should review my other accounts as well
This isn't to say I don't have some losers at the moment (those are for another post), but anyway the ones above have saved me through last year, and look to be headed upward still.
I probably should go through all my recommendations over the last couple years and update, but I'd be more motivated if I wasn't posting here mostly alone. I guess this is for posterity and my tombstone.
Have I been confused here for over 20 years????
I have just been told by an admin that you aren't allowed to discuss how to trade a stock on that stock board. Looks to me like I've got a new job here, putting in remove posts on 95% of all posts.
Ð....Bought some MDT this morning. Bought just under $90. Short term goal $98.50. If it breaks though there, I'll make it a long term hold.
Ð.....Today I'm considering ODFL. Looks to be continuing on it's long upward trend. Not much dividend but it's something.
Some of these stocks sure have gotten pricey. I miss the days of wild stock splits.
Price currently $348.25. Not sure what would be a decent target price right now, ( thinking around $440?) but I'd probably want a stop loss somewhere under $310 or so.
That's pretty crazy.
Ð....I spoke on the NFLX board about dumping the rest of this stock and taking my few hundred dollars of profit. I didn't. However, the stock still hasn't broken support and considering this stock rides up and down like a roller coaster, this is probably a decent time to add more.....with a very tight stop loss. Currently at $322.82
Ð......I think I'm becoming obsessed.....
Aug. 15
... sometime this summer or early this fall, the government will no longer be able to pay everyone — including bondholders, Social Security recipients and federal employees — on time. The Moody’s team estimates that deadline, known as the X-date, will fall on Aug. 15.
In a scenario where lawmakers’ inaction forced the Treasury Department to miss some required payments in order to make others, the analysis predicted a swift backlash from financial markets, akin to the stock plunge in 2008.
If lawmakers ignored the market warnings and went months without raising the limit, the analysis concluded, “the blow to the economy would be cataclysmic.” Federal spending would plunge, a deep recession would set in and the unemployment rate would spike to more than 8 percent from 3.4 percent.
The bear market was confirmed in June 2008 when the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) had fallen 20% from its October 11, 2007 high. This followed the bull market of 2002–07 and was followed by the bull market of 2009–2020.
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Here.....you want information that the general numbskull on IHUB won't bother reading?....and yes, it IS political...
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/07/us/politics/debt-default-economy.html
Derfie rarely tries to catch a falling knife is how.
I typically look to trade in the meaty middle. I'm happy with a 30% gain on my stocks and will happily sell off enough to cover my cost to buy and keep the rest.
I also prefer a 15% stop loss and thus I only have to be right half as often.
My motto is greed kills.
As for the "Big Boys" having a better grip or manipulating, I'd say stay away from derivative products that can be easily manipulated, and as for that better grip.....that's what creates the warning signs when charting that I look for. I'm not as sure these big boys manipulate as they do get early information helping them to cheat the game a bit. If you're a gambler who knows the QB in the upcoming game has a bad shoulder and bet accordingly, that's not manipulation, it's inside info. In the past, I have talked with NYers on Wall Street who have known things before I could. However, again, if you watch trading volume and trends, you can be second in line to learn things before the masses notice it.
As to your last question, I have always said knowing when to sell is much more difficult than knowing when to buy.....so....set a mental price target and stick to it, then quit watching the stock in case it goes on a massive run after.....or as mentioned earlier, sell your cost basis and keep the rest.
Lastly, avoiding a recession?? Tough one. Either ride through it if you've got time (you don't),
or put a gas and oil tank in your backyard. Grow vegetables. Butcher your own beef. Raise chickens. Put up a big fence.
Too lengthy of an answer?
A worthless post from someone that has nothing of worth to post.
Thus characterizes my gotmilk posts here on IH.
Is it not true that the Big Boys with massive wealth control the Markets ?
If it is valid that a recession is coming soon, and the Big Boys have a better grip on this than the average Joe, then they can manipulate the following " ...Bitcoin is trending upwards [and] the market moves up in an environment that says it shouldn't [and] seeing Shanghai trending upwards" then they know when the Big Boys will dump all and exit prior to when the average Joe takes notice of the trend to go to cash.
So while the average Joe does the sell high and buy at the dip and repeat this cycle, how does derfie know when to sell and not try and catch that falling knife?
Now if only Churak was available to help derfie :)
Just read this quote and kind'a like it. Maybe it should be one of my siggy's.....
"Not everything that counts can be counted and not everything counted counts"
Ð.....last month Coca Cola ( such an worldwide name. I find it interesting when non-sensical words become such a common part of the vernacular.....Google).
Anyway, they raised their dividend once again, which they do almost every year. The best way to fight recession is through dividends. So many here chasing penny stock dreams, while my goal these days is "find the safe income". I haven't had a great year in the market recently, but I haven't really lost either. I'm still seeking other great dividend companies as Coke isn't my only one, but it is my biggest. Funny how my father had given me this advice long ago and I poo-poohed it.
On a similar thought, I wonder how many of you have written down your nut (your monthly expenses that must be paid). If you've never done this, you really should. Know what your expenses are, create the income to pay them, pad it a little, invest for growth with the rest.
It is not as complicated as you are probably making it.
Ð......Most everything I'm reading these days is predicting recession coming soon. More often than not, the majority is wrong, however, I do notice Bitcoin is trending upward at a decent rate. While I'm not a fan, it is worth noting. When the market moves up in an environment that says it shouldn't, I get cautious.
I'm also seeing Shanghai trending upward.
And I guess watching gold's spike would make it a trifecta.
I would expect that the Chinese government wouldn't want a cryptocurrency any more than the US would, unless of course they find a different way to tax the citizens. I was researching their system of taxing and it doesn't look much different than ours. However, admittedly, I haven't researched the currency exchange rate.
Personal income tax rates
Comprehensive income tax rates
For residents, calculation of IIT on annual comprehensive income is based on progressive tax rates (see Table I below) using the following formula:
(Annual taxable income x Tax rate) - Quick deduction
Table I
Annual taxable income (CNY*) (1) Tax rate (%) Quick deduction (CNY)
0 to 36,000 3 0
Over 36,000 to 144,000 10 2,520
Over 144,000 to 300,000 20 16,920
Over 300,000 to 420,000 25 31,920
Over 420,000 to 660,000 30 52,920
Over 660,000 to 960,000 35 85,920
Over 960,000 45 181,920
Digital Dynasties: How China’s Cryptocurrency Could Unseat the Dollar
https://hir.harvard.edu/digital-dynasties-how-chinas-cryptocurrency-could-unseat-the-dollar/
Although the US dollar remains the world’s dominant fiat currency, an analysis of the geopolitics surrounding the battle for currency hegemony reveals that China’s digital yuan will pose a serious challenge to the dollar status quo as the 21st century unfolds.
... international sanctions present a unique opportunity for China to showcase the advantages of a currency outside of US control. When Russia invaded Ukraine, one way the United States retaliated was by cutting Russia off from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT). SWIFT is responsible for nearly all international cross-border transactions. As 95 percent of all dollar payments are settled in New York, SWIFT is policed by the US. The White House vowed that without SWIFT, Russia would be reliant on “the telephone or a fax machine” to conduct international business. The digital yuan offers a potential solution. By bypassing SWIFT and executing a secure cross-border transfer using China’s CBDC, Russia could theoretically trade with anyone willing to run afoul of US sanctions. If China itself were the target of widespread sanctions, the digital yuan could be crucial to continuing trade relations with close allies. China could also pitch the digital yuan to any countries seeking to disrupt US hegemony, such as its ally Iran. More support for the digital yuan increases its reach and recognition, in turn boosting the internationalization of the RMB.
also,
China's Crypto Ban
https://worldcoin.org/articles/china-crypto-ban
I think we are talking about two different things. I would think they mean actual currency, not forcing you to finance. When I say I pay in cash, I'm not bringing over a briefcase, I'm writing a check.....although I have found many companies will give me additional discount when I do offer actual cash. When banks stopped paying interest, I decided my wall safe was a better place for much of my cash that was in the bank, so would regularly pull out $9k at a time.
The U.S. has proposed doing away with cash, but then what would the hookers, and strippers do?
From the government's perspective, it all makes sense. So much easier to track and tax your spending. I'm fairly certain this is a large reason why cryptocurrency became in vogue. People believing the government couldn't track it. However, there have been occasions when crypto has been stolen from people's accounts and the government has easily tracked it for them. Wouldn't surprise me if the government created these events just to show people it wasn't a safe place for your money without government intervention and you couldn't hide it from the government.
"paid for everything in cash" Not sure I heard the news story correctly, but in Europe it's illegal to pay in cash over $1,000 (one thousand) as any amount over that must be in a digital money transfer. If true, then that's how the government monitors where you spend your money since every transaction points to what you purchased.
.
I used to be a big believer in credit scores and credit rating. I taught my kids how to get their credit scores up as it not only affects your loans, and your cost of insurance, but now they use it for hiring as well ( I believe this should be illegal).
Anyway, it seems to me the credit bureaus have become a scam whereas they no longer reward you for paying off your bills, but instead for having debt (which is totally counter intuitive to what good credit should be).
I hadn't checked my score in a while because when the interest rates dropped so low that it wasn't worth having money in the bank, I took my money and paid for everything in cash. I paid cash for a house and paid off all my old car loans. I've never had any credit card debt...ever.
Anyway, I noticed the other day when I checked my scores, that they have been dropping monthly....because I have no debt??
Apparently, they have decided that since I have no debt, I must not have any money?
It shouldn't matter to me, but it really does. It's quite apparent they want to motivate me to carry debt and penalize me for paying them off. The way I built such a high score in the first place was by flipping cars every six months. Every time I paid off a loan my score went higher. Not any more.
There really needs to be a sub-committee looking into this, what should be a fraudulent tactic.
Done with my rant.
Now, if we can penalize the use of text speak.
I'd advise it. When I consider how much time I spent on here while my kids were growing up, it ticks me off.
Too many people take IHUB as real life. It isn't, it's much scarier. You get to see what your neighbors are really thinking about you as they nod at you while taking the trash to the street.
I've lost some good friend's relationships due to social media.
As you can see from my history, I've left a couple times for years at a time. Each time was cleansing and each time returning reminded me to come back with the knowledge that none of this here matters.
Italy's government [a] law to penalize use of non-Italian words.
https://www.aol.com/news/mispronouncing-word-bruschetta-could-soon-004936558.html
.. stop using English words that have replaced longer Italian expressions,
instead of the adopted "dispenser," politicians would have to revert to
"dispensatore di liquido igienizzante per le mani."
.
I saw a Gremlin on TV today. Some gameshow. It was smoking
Fung, I think I am going to depart for awhile and slip into darkness
Watching this shit upsets me as bad as watching the damage one man has done to this country in just over 2 years. Actually his dementia has caused I’ll for the whole damn planet
Ð.....One day I have this vision that people will return to this board in droves, recognizing this as one of the few places on IHUB where sanity is still in vogue.
With that in mind, to you future IHUBbers.......
Do you invest in mutual funds or variable annuities? Why?
Do you only buy individual stocks? Why?
Do you buy individual bonds? Why?
Do you trust Wall Street as a fair place for your investments? Or do you believe the very wealthy are given advantages?
I believe it was from overbuilding. Their government made the same mistakes we have, which was create too much cash flow, then tried to reign it back in by raising interest rates, which caused their market to crumble.
I know they've had major issues with building buildings that no one wants to rent.
For some reason, they want to be where the US is.
Ð.....well, how long have I been preaching this now?! Too late...the Shanghai index is in full breakout mode now. Where's Godzilla when you need him?....oh wait, that was Japan.
Talk about going back in time....I guess that open minded thing didn't last.
I'm reminiscing. I guess DVN would have been an interesting ride over the last 20 years.
Arkansas Derby 2023....want to save this for the Kentucky Derby
2023 Arkansas Derby G1
[Edit]
Date / Track:
04/01/2023, Oaklawn Park
Post Time:
07:50 PM ET
Distance:
1 1/8 m (Dirt)
Age / Sex:
3 M
NEW > Get a $150 bonus from AmWager! (recommended) + cash rewards daily!
Gulfstream Park entries and results | Aqueduct entries and results
Fin Silks Horse / Sire Rating Trainer / Jockey Last Start / Next Start HRN
1 Horse Silk Angel Of Empire Angel Of Empire
Classic Empire 5.40 Brad H. Cox
Flavien Prat 1st, 2023 Arkansas Derby G1 9-2
2 Horse Silk King Russell King Russell
Creative Cause 3.79 Ron Moquett
Rafael Bejarano 2nd, 2023 Arkansas Derby G1 30-1
3 Horse Silk Reincarnate Reincarnate
Good Magic 6.72 Tim Yakteen
John R. Velazquez 3rd, 2023 Arkansas Derby G1 5-2
4 Horse Silk Rocket Can Rocket Can
Into Mischief 6.02 William I. Mott
Junior Alvarado 4th, 2023 Arkansas Derby G1 4-1
5 Horse Silk Airtime Airtime
American Freedom 3.79 Robertino Diodoro
Cristian A. Torres 5th, 2023 Arkansas Derby G1 15-1
6 Horse Silk Red Route One Red Route One
Gun Runner 5.88 Steven M. Asmussen
Tyler Gaffalione 6th, 2023 Arkansas Derby G1 3-1
7 Horse Silk Two Eagles River Two Eagles River
Cloud Computing 5.12 Chris A. Hartman
Nik Juarez 7th, 2023 Arkansas Derby G1 10-1
8 Horse Silk Interlock Empire Interlock Empire
Classic Empire 0.00 Kenneth G. McPeek
David Cabrera 8th, 2023 Arkansas Derby G1 20-1
9 Horse Silk Harlocap Harlocap
Justify 5.47 Steven M. Asmussen
Ricardo Santana, Jr. 9th, 2023 Arkansas Derby G1 15-1
10 Horse Silk Bourbon Bash Bourbon Bash
City of Light 5.84 D. Wayne Lukas
Reylu Gutierrez 10th, 2023 Arkansas Derby G1 15-1
Funny, I've always imagined you more of a Gremlin guy.
plenty of jobs and cheap housing
10 U.S. cities
https://www.aol.com/finance/10-us-cities-plenty-jobs-190028784.html
______City _____________Typical home value ___Typical rent
Birmingham, Alabama __________ 90,289 ___.______ 1,184
Montgomery, Alabama ________ 127,789 __________ 1,168
Evansville, Indiana ___________ 168,401 ___________ 826
Milwaukee, Wisconsin ____.____ 173,931 _____._____ 1,160
Fort Wayne, Indiana _________ 202,934 __________ 1,121
Springfield, Missouri _________ 213,892 __________ 1,227
Indianapolis, Indiana _________ 216,351 __________ 1,307
Huntsville, Alabama __________ 257,800 _________ 1,434
Lincoln, Nebraska ___________ 259,208 _________ 1,199
Sioux Falls, South Dakota _____ 302,956 _________ 1,178
.
I’d take a free pinto
First off...
did you graduate at age 8?? Dang you're old!
secondly, I recall as a kid figuring out that the average annual income stayed pretty much in line through the years as the price of a Cadillac or Corvette.
At the time I didn't understand why you'd buy a Cadillac if you could have a Corvette?
(just checked the numbers for 2022)
When I graduated from high school in 1963...
The median income of all families in 1963 was about $6,200; but for families headed by college graduates, the median was $9,700.
But a high school graduate working under a strong labor union, for example General Electric or one of those major steel producing companies, could be hired at the lowest pay (clean floor & take out the garbage) and make more than a typical collage graduate working in a company without any labor union.
.
I have got to wonder if the powers that be, intentionally did a poor job of seeding the teams for the NCAA basketball tournament this year. Absolutely no chance for anyone to have a perfect bracket and they weren't even close on the seedings!
After the first day, there was only one perfect bracket left, after day two there were none.
It does make for more interesting viewing to see "long shots" winning though.
FWIW, I won all the brackets I competed in. Although my secret sauce was just copying verbatim from some guy on ESPN or somewhere. He didn't do great, but apparently he did better than everyone else.
I finished about 250,000th nationally....out of 29 million entries I think.
Consider that! 29 people around the world with nothing better to do with their time than fill out brackets.
FWIW, there are still just a few left who picked all four Final Four teams correctly. I've got to believe those people filled out at least a thousand brackets. Who picks FAU in the final four??!!
FWIW, they all have UConn to win it all. Lets see.
I think you are right....except I'm sure my grandparents said the same when we were kids.
I recall one of my grandfathers just losing his mind when the Beatles were first on Ed Sullivan.
I listened for about 20 minutes. Didn't realize how long that was.
I'd say she's right and wrong.
The market isn't overvalued, it's overfunded.
Let's take for example Viet Nam. The currency exchange rate for the dollar is somewhere around 23,000 dong per dollar.
So, lets say, a few years ago I told you that you could retire on 23,000,000,000 dong per year. Sounds great...but that's currently about $10k US per year.
And THIS is what the Fed has done.
So this woman is saying Pensions will fail, I think the opposite. Pensions and insurance companies have just been bailed out (if they don't screw up their own investing process).
Retirees who left their jobs 3 years ago with $1 million dollars now have about $600k in spendable dollars.
That's not over-valuation, that's inflation.
FWIW, high interest rates are bad for corporate growth, but good for retirees. Problem is, too many retirees got greedy and invested wrong. I think most of them are here on IHUB buying penny stocks.
Anyway, while the woman said pensions are in trouble for being underfunded (which isn't untrue by the way), the guy then spoke of how having a pension is worth a lot more than having cash....which I've also said for quite some time. Except I didn't factor in the Gov't printing cash hilly nilly. My bad.
I always take it back to The Game of Life (by Milton Bradley).....there is not an easier example of how inflation makes all your plans moot.
One last rant.....there is something called the Monte Carlo simulation for investing. Don't buy into it. It has always been a ridiculous farce and any financial guy who uses it for planning is pretty much useless.
The only true strategy for completely successful investing is to die in less than 10 years from the time you switch from income to outgo. That or live way beneath your means. (which has always been my motto).
"Because that's the style."
It's understood by all teenage girls "Don't throw away any cloths out of style because eventually they will come back in style."
Somehow teenage girls equate "in style" cloths as a way to be attractive to boys.
Boys of course are completely imperturbable (need Churak to check if this is a real word) if the cloths girls wear are in or out of style, except when the in style cloths are completely stupid, as was the case when all girl's shirts had football style shoulder pads which alerted the boys not to mention the idiotic nature of what the girls were wearing. Whenever I walked behind such fashion my brain correctly signaled that if the girl's shoulder was indeed formed that way from birth, it was a deformity at birth needing corrective action by a doctor.
Don't ask Susie about this as she will get violent towards you.
fung the world has lost its mind, much like Brandon
Ð.....I hate looking back at the stocks I've sold. Too often, while I felt like a genius (or lucky) at the time, I'm now kicking myself.
Recent observation is GIS. I made 22% on it in 8 months and should be happy, right? Bought at $60, sold at $73. It's currently $83.84 and pays a very nice dividend.
I'm buying it back if it gets under $81 again shortly.
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A place to discuss stocks based on technical analysis, with a slant towards the laid back. Not a place for penny stock picks as earnings are kind of important!
Kick your shoes off, but watch out for guano!
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So much for freedom of censorship. Pics must go. Stock scammers get to stay. The new world order.
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