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So, Good Morning pete807 & jugs!
Just liberated about $5,000 by selling off a little GOOG I bought @ $703/sh. Made money, but sure like our picks here.
With my 20+ NGL in place I am looking at our other candidates.
Do you like EPT, EPD, or DKL? I presently hold 800 DKL, 800 EPD and 600 EPT. I am open to waiting as well, but see our picks moving up steadily (don't want to wait too long and miss the ride) and look to diversify a bit more to income as well.
Thoughts?
If you look at the actions of DKL's largest holders, you'll find patterns that might be very useful.
I listen to nobody in particular when it comes to putting money into a pick. And I always scout around the area before I even consider taking a starter position. But when I see the biggies amassing behind a particular pick mon my short list, that tells me two things:
1. Like yours truly, they also like the pick.
2. They are tied closely to their client lists and they dare not retreat with their legs between their tale. (not tail---I didn't typo here, it's an intentional pun.) As Elsie said in an udder way:
The gurus dare not admit they failed, simple as that. So when you see very gradual diminution happening with respect to their positions, it's a fairly safe bet they are a) possibly disenchanted and disappointed with the pick. Or, b) They've found something else turning them on even more.
I saw such moves this morning in this pick. I'm not suggesting DKL is going down anywhere bad, merely pointing out that you should be more careful in my opinion. Continue on your path but see if you can't be a little gentler as you approach your target accumulations.
There's times to be gentle and cautious, others that call for aggressive strike-out pitches. I love and pretty much live for the strikeout potential but I also recognize the importance of playing it in a cagy way, knowing that when
I get tool aggressive, I unwittingly set myself up for a major fall.
Many at Seeking Alpha have stated clearly and sometimes unclearly that I've got to be a nutcase with money to burn in my stupidity as I track NGL. That's fine by me as I don't give a rat's ass about their validations. I know what I'm doing for myself and it's paying off in spades with diamonds for decoration.
But make no mistake, my young friend and fellow investor:
I've been in NGL since November of 2015. And I'm holding only 700 units of DKL at this stage. 26,000 units in one but 700 min the other/ Doesn't that tell you something?
IF DK elects to follow through on dropdowns, DKL might be seen as a more worthwhile holding. Much will depend on the quality of drops, of course---but also the number, the frequency, the price payable back to DK (acquisition coast as nothing in life is ever free) and the overall potential impact in store for the investor of either entity.
Tacked on another 415 @31.43!!!!GLTA!!!
Picked up enough units to make my minimum position yesterday...Holding 1015 avg 29.1702....GLTA!!!
Distributions are certainly welcome but DKL is going to move higher not due to distributions but because of dramatic changes arising from parent DK-inspired drop-downs to come following the big swallow which should happen shortly. Fatten the MLP up and DKL should move with a significantly larger footprint.
I'm currently holding just 700 units of DKL, myself, have been unable to increase much due to having bolstered my NGL position. But if I should find myself dissatisfied with DK's prospects after the swallow, DKL will be a logical offset, at least in part.
Welcome Alpine!
We anticipate an increase in volume once the deal is done and assets drop to this logistic MLP.
I am long the MLP rebound this quarter, and stay long as MLP's reward investors.
GLTA!
Alright gentlemen, I had such a good time riding along with you on ALDW that I’ve made the plunge into DKL. Managed to scoop 500 up on Friday at 32.80. It sure is thinly traded but likewise I’m optimistic that will improve over time. If history is a guide they should be declaring the distribution on or around Jan 25 (paid around Valentines Day).
At least there is talk of DKL... and talk will open ears and eyes to the tiny volume trading MLP. That would be great! Many SA authors picks included. Here is one from the linked article:
900 @ 28.7290....Would like to round this out to 1000 even...Out of cash so I'll just have to watch it keep rising!!! DRAT!!! GLTA!!!
It's an old theme with me but I can't be quiet about it:
If you've got the cash, sit on it and wait for a pullback in DKL. I couldn't be more convinced it's going to push to $40/unit or at least somewhere near that higher number. mThis pick is yelling at me. Last week I added 100 units on margin, as it was screaming,
"Buy me! Damnit! Whut's it gonna take before you add things up and recognize where I'm going?"
So I added at $31.60, hated paying we4ll above my earlier cost basis.
Well, the re4sults speak for themselves. Currently I'm holding:
DKL: 700 units
Cost basis: $28.88
It doesn't get much better than this. And when the formerly held ALDW assets begin dropping down into DKL by parent DK?
Watch out as volume and valuation both rise strongly.
DKL tends to tack on a dollar or so only to give back half or so over the few days following the rise. Plan your moves accordingly but please keep this pick high on your personal radar. I know I am!
Piper Jaffray analysts called the oil refining companies the “clear winners” from U.S. tax reform.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3316201-oil-refiners-seen-winners-tax-reform-andeavor-plus-2_4-percent-pbf-plus-2_3-percent?uprof=46#email_link
ALDW refinery is one of 4 now operating for DK. DKL should benefit along with them.
The investor presentation has new information including potential buybacks, and asset sale of idle California refineries. The logistics map changes are included. read more:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4129475-delek-us-dk-presents-cowen-7th-annual-energy-and-natural-resources-conference-slideshow
Unless I'm mistaken, DK now becomes the headlining Permian product mover resulting from digesting ALJ. When ALDW is fully digested following the big swallow, DK then moves into center stageage as an asphalt heavyweight, too.
DK is gaining luster as a result of the last few years of acquisitions. Those interested should go to the DK website for done very interesting reads. I'm especially liking the asphalt side of things, believing there's going to be further acquisitions now with the Administration firmly behind rebuilding efforts.
I doubt DK will drop a lot over the next several months making this a solid "hold" in my mind, for now, at least.
I put up a map of the DKL system of pipelines, terminals, crude and product storage tank farms. in the info box here. With the recent acquisition of ALDW this map will change and include assets in the heart of the Permian oil patch. They also show the refineries owned by DK.
I see it as neither, I placed an order this morning for 100 DKL at $27.50.
I'm betting it'll happen sometime, someday soon. I can wait. It just feels like a distinct possibility.
Buyer beware... Is this dip just a gap fill, a buying op? I'm waiting to find out more about assets coming in.
The slide continues today on low volume...
-.80 1 hour into session.
Today is a buy the dip day if you were/are looking to start or add to a position. This morning when it bounced twice in the 27.30's you could have saved $1.50/ unit. Volume is above average today at 55K.
The number of market makers I see is small at this point. My Schwab L2 screen has 3.
There is no news I can find driving this 4% decline so I have to assume the low attention and volume are factors.
Invest accordingly...
GLTA!
Yes! No room for doubt, either. However, we should expect muted trading for awhile as DKL is a relatively new kid on the block only now becoming a poster child for DK. Investors will want to lock in their positions if they're yield hunters. That's not my profile but I, too, am not thinking in terms of selling off to reapply profits. So long as I'm profiting from appreciation and distributions, I find no reason to flirt with other picks unless they hold even greater promise.
I understood about volume this past week and short day, however just as I expect the coming increase will accompany an increase in unit price, new money and some of it institutional, will give investors confidence to open larger positions that freely trade with the appropriate liquidity the volume brings.
Normal average volume of 26,846 (per yahoo) we can assume will increase substantially when the rest of the assets from Big Spring are included here.
We need to keep in mind it was just a half day. And Friday is the day of reconciliation that has short term traders cashing out for food and rent.
Gains were altogether obvious this week and volume numbers across the board were very anemic Thursday---as is to be expected preceding a holiday event.
Well it remains a plan to be longer actually in DK than DKL, unless and until daily volume at the MLP drastically increases. 9k volume for Friday says enough about what we need going forward.
Between you and me, I think we run a risk of siding with DKL when it is nothing without DK steering the lead ship in the convoy.
DKL will grow more quickly in the near term than would have been the case were it not for DK dining on ALJ. It was in that spirit that I took my DLK position...knowing that dropdowns would only reinforce the positives already in place. Unitholder sustainability will come, surely, from the continued high yield low-hanging fruit just sitting there for any to grab and enjoy.
However, DK is and will remain the parent of DKL and that tells me it would be an enormous mistake to let go of DK once the blush has left the rose that DK is. I continue to hold about half of my ALDW position for this reason and have encouraged others to do so as well.
Just as DK has brought ALJ into the fold and now ALJ's child ALDW is facing the big swallow thus finalizing the acquisition, there's no doubt in my mind but that there will be other big deals in the offing once this one is fully digested.
DK is a holdings company. It will cease to exist profitably unless it can continue on the acquisitive path. I expect that it will continue on the acquisitive trail, enlarging its footprint as it moves to become the behemoth it envisions.....that we all might envision. It is that vision that I'm really buying into, and not the quarterly allowance paid to supporters. I'm a supporter, myself.
Just don't call me Jacques.
lol
I have started positions here and at the parent DK, and will hold on for the market to catch up with the changes we followed.
My post about volume was errantly posted on the parent site and it belongs here. DKL will be an even bigger investment for us and should also rise as the daily volume doubles or more from the mergers and coming drop downs.
DKL will gain more attention as more catch on to the drop downs and consolidation of strong Permian assets that include the asphalt and distribution side of both Krotz Springs and Big Spring refineries.
GLTA!
Article covers both the MLP and the parent DK:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4127249-19-straight-distribution-hikes-10-percent-yield-will-coverage-improve-lp?auth_param=i4ud:1d1j02f:dba78d9b2ae2cee2b5fd5156bd783379&uprof=46
DKL is interesting for me especially inasmuch as I'm not confident yet that I have a realistic handle on how it trades.
On the plus side, though...
1. It pays a great yield.
2. It's been a very steady payer from the start.
3. Stands to benefit from the DK & ALDW merger in the works now.
4. DK, DKL's parent (!) has pledged to "drop down" assets from the merger into DKL. This has to translate into a positive for unitholders as it increases the footprint, logistically speaking. We need to keep in mind that there's always been enough energy around for all of us on the planet. The problem has been that not all communities were in position to avail themselves of supplies when the demand side was outstripping local sources.
Logistics embraces that issue as it provides terminals for ready transportational facilities and docking stations plus straight-ahead storage facilities plus supplies commercial markets with carbon-based product including retail plus pipeline space plus a whole host of other pieces of profit orientation.
Now, then---add in likely strengthening of ALL OF THE ABOVE and you'll immediately see the treasure-trove opportunity we have when ALDW is finally digested by DK and subsequently DKL. I'm convinced that fat yield-based distributions are very low hanging fruit for us with a strong possibility that we'll doubly benefit from the pending big swallow coupled with the removal of one formerly key player in the logistics arena---ALDW.
There promise to be exciting times for us energy hounds.
Happy Turkey Day!
Nice move up this morning...
DKL will be a player and the 10% distribution will give it momentum.
Still thinking the daily trading volume is low so it will move without much resistance.
What I plan for DKL:
Add on the dips and keep the position factored by the trading volume.
My goal this year is adding 1000 units and stopping with 1500. Next year I will hopefully double that, or more if the drop downs do as expected, and the trading volume increases by that factor also.
We followers of DKL are ahead of the pack and must be patient for the herd to catch up.
GLTA!
Like jugs I am happy to have helped you both see the EPD light and you have already returned the favor(s). GLTus!
I bought DKL at the last moment today and made $118.80 in that one minute on the trade... had to use a market order to paint the tape. 500@27.15. When all is said and done at DKL I realized with jugs help the daily volume will rise. Still I was not talking big numbers anyway in my positions..... yet, lol.
-pete
Me too! Not meant to be funny, just trying to keep things real. We did great today on our in-common picks. NGL rose a little but I think it's going to show fatigue over the next month to a month and a half. I want to jump on it.
ALDW has been most incredible, changing lives, I'd imagine. I'm happiest when riding a wave of excitement such as happened with ALDW. I need a major commitment like that and NGL is my next pick to star on the investment stage.
I figure we're early to the game. Being an extremely small group here, I doubt many are even aware that NGL exists. But we are aware and more and more of us are jumping onto the platform, hoping to gain passage before the train departs for higher terrain.
With about $10,000 coming in next week from ALDW distributions, I'm planning on putting nearly all of it to work in NGL. I won't let it burn a hole in my pocket.
A note here: Today and yesterday have me wondering if I'm being altogether realistic in waiting for $11.50 in NGL? Frankly, I don't know, it may be too low a market sentiment-in-the-making. $12 may be a more correct number.
For now, though, I'm planning on waiting as Pete807 and I tend to come in close when it comes to projections. We'd projected $14.50 to $15 for ALDW by the end of November so we hit that one as close as we could have. So now I'm waiting to see $11.50 in NGL but if it's not showing weakness, I'll maybe pay $12 when the ALDW money comes in. But I will not use more than half of the cash just in case my $11.50 proves to have been valid.
Lots of questions left unanswered but these are wonderful moments, great successes each of us can point to and there's so much more to relish along the way to discovery.
Have a great weekend, everybody! And sell a zillion crepes, Shawn!
Taking time to do some research and I am wondering if the anyone sees any reason why the div for DKL should change.
Providing a bit of detail, on what is driving my question, I looked back 5 years and regardless if they hit or miss on earnings estimates (and they have usually missed in the last couple of years), they have never missed a div payment and, it is always goes up from previous div payments. Quarter after quarter the dive goes up .01 or .02.
another 100 shares, bought them at 27.60. Good enough for now. Will take Jugs advice and wait for the right price to get NGL.
No tax advice will be given by me as it's not my area of expertise.
I hear what you're saying and while it makes sense to me, the fact remains that you will be paying on those taxable gains eventually. I intensely dislike mortgaging my future.
This is not the board to discuss DK, by the way. Let's use the DK board for that, please.
DKL is a different story. It's at $28.40 now and I'm expecting it to rise in the near term. DK's planned ALDW dropdowns must play into the future of DKL and for that reason I'm holding 600 units of DKL. Too, it stands to reason that DK will be protective of DKL as it is the latter's General Partner and stands to reap the quarterly harvest that we do as holders of both.
Jugs,
So in a 401K which is where I hold mine, since tax is sheltered, I could sell more ALDW and buy more DK now, at over $14 it does make sense, doesn't it?
In your previous post you asked about the possibility of DK swallowing DKL and the latter then goes the way of the dino-sOur. I responded in a separate post that got swallowed itself by sighber space, herself.
Again, then.....
DKL is the child of DK. As such, it becomes the ideal place for dropdowns that don't fit the core focus of Mummy and Daddy. It opens doors to more effective ledger work and in the final analysis, DK stands to benefit more than any other unitholder as it is the General Partner which I read as the prevailing PIP* This means DK will be enjoying quarterly paydays at the same 10% yield basis that we stand to receive.
I'm liking DKL more and more as I become more comfortable with it. I dismiss the yield for the most part as I expect to do better than that via appreciation but many investors depend upon yields and I need to remain sensitive to that reality.
Another item here:
Logistics is not DK's only focal point. But it is central to DKL. Look at a basic brokerage representation of each company's fundamentals and you'll be better able to assign your own value to various parts of those assets now on the table owing to ALON's pending swallow. I do this, myself, repeatedly--throughout each day as this is my fulltime job.
I hope this helps you.
*Partner in power
Initially I wasn't even considering taking a position, but then I realized that the DKL we're seeing today is not the DKL to emerge following DK's (Daddy's) drop-downs yet to come. There's no way to predict size but the MLP will definitely be growing larger.
I'm at 600 units of DKL myself and if they retreat below my cost basis which is just over $28.42, I'll be adding---but carefully, as I'm readying myself for a bunch more of NGL which I'm expecting to drop to $11.50 and under.
DKL is like a petty cash drawer---full of a sweet 10% yield yet not representing so much money that I'll find myself hamstrung due to insufficient liquidity as other more exciting opportunities arise.
Still, when the dropdowns do occur, I'm expecting a strong surge in DKL. If something else is screaming at me to buy it? I'll be going to DKL for cash. It should be noted here that I won't be a buyer of anything with former DKL money unless I see very clearly that my proposed action will yield a far greater return than DKL's 10% yield provides.
I'd imagine you're seeing this in similar fashion as you know how to steer your ship.
Happy hunting!
What is everyone's thought on the EPS in spite of the revenue increase?
Thanks for your evaluation. I saw the WF report and noted that a few others have DK as a Hold...one has DK as Outperform! I think a lot of the 3Q numbers, and certainly the forward projections, include revenues from ALDW strongly factored in, and decreased expenses from elimination of overlapping functions...i.e. the "combined synergies".
I agree a bird in the hand..... I put in a sell for my position tonight just slightly north of $14. My thinking is that I will likely put those proceeds into DK, DKL or both. (I dipped my toes into EPD in August and will add as I am able. I'd also like to add more KMI, but I'm not sure where the bottom is...I thought it was at $18) I'm just not sure where the better play is for me. I add to my positions as funds become available after the bills are paid. I still have one in college - freshman - and I may be financing an overseas trip for him in a few months, so I have to be careful on my investment decisions, as we all should be.
Risk versus reward.
I am willing to tolerate some risk, and I don't sense a great risk with any of these potential choices. More like trying to get the timing right and catch the right star(s) on the rise.
Being as I'm on the phone and not at the computer, I'll respond in the morning as there's a lot at stake for you and I want to tackle all pertinent points.
One point I dare not ignore, though:
We don't know how DK will recognize ALDW units upon conversion in terms of tax liability. It'd be great if it were as simple as a near 2:1 @.49. But we have no way of knowing there'll be a step up.
Many of us have elected to liquidate half of our previously held ALDW holdings as this limits our tax exposure to 50%. But that may not be how it works. As of this time we can't know. DK may announce that our units of ALDW are to be credited with a value LESS consideration of gains accrued priorly. This would effectively screw those expecting a step up and for this reason I sold half my units.
Half of something is worth more than all of nothing.
Continuing on this path... my sense all week has been that DK would soon be rising, a result of the really fine quarterly report. I immediately started buying and announced so on the board. Over the first three days of this week I built a 2100 share position.
The give-away was the report itself which I studied, knowing my responses would be guiding me as the big swallow is in processing mode and I had to move on things to protect my interests. It was clear there'd soon be analyst upgrades.
It was Tuesday, I believe, when the flurry of analyst announcements landed and I topped off the tank immediately. Later that day Wells Fargo came out with their +47% projection amounting to a $40 share. At that point I felt I had to push people hard or the opportunity would fizzle. So I campaigned and prodded.
My 2100 shares are nearly $2,000 ahead already. Before WF spoke of $40 I'd come up with my own $38-$39 based on studying the quarterly, looking at the prior several years of earnings and capex and especially the fact that the company had been able to execute fairly well despite difficult times in the energy sector.
Adding it all up I figured that while I may be exposing myself to a lot of taxation by selling half of ALDW, that gives me the cash to redeploy in DK. Further, I get to buy DK now on the cheap. When the swallow happens, DK may be several dollars higher in valuation and that might trigger a different accounting procedure affecting the 0.49 basis.
NOT buying into DK now is a mistake in my eyes as I see a rising valuation ahead. Holding ALDW may seem very profitable but January brings a new tax year and I wouldn't want to be in the revolving doors come the first of the year.
A lot of people don't know about DK but this will surely change. Brokerages will promote it as they want their clients to make money and this pick is going to do that.
Waiting to learn the final terms of the swallow and doing nothing is like not living until we know how we will die. This is the ideal time to act! Waiting could quickly add $5 to the cost of a share whereas acting now eliminates concern. At the worst, you'll end up with shares you hadn't considered, shares probably containing unexpected gains while in the womb awaiting the big swallow.
I hope this helps you, please let me know.
Since I'm to lazy to figure my average I waited for Scottrade to do it for me...Bought 500 DKL yesterday at 27.8839...and 500 Dk at 27.2367 So I'm in and out of cash til the 22nd...Back to eating peanut butter sandwiches...and yes I remember Jugs likes peanut butter sandwiches...But I'm looking forward to steak and lobster I see in our future...GLTA!!!
Jugs, I'm considering liquidating my ALDW if I can get over $14/unit for it....but I'm conflicted. If DK stays where it is, or rises, which I suspect it will, I'd rather keep my ALDW and let it convert at .49 for DK shares in 1Q2018.....all who do instantly walk into positive gains.....
That said, I could still grab some crumbs of DK or DKL.....I've just started doing some research, but I'm curious what your thoughts are on DKL unitholders getting the short end. I don't mean to suggest that ALDW unitholders are getting screwed - I'm not - but since DKL is wholly owned by DK, why wouldn't DK eliminate DKL and keep the cash flow in DK for capital growth?
You're luckier than I as I'm still waiting. It's stalled at $28.35, needs to drop a nickel. We're in the middle of the NYC alcoholic lunch session so anything could happen. I might even have to spring for the nickel.
Horrors!
Yep! I placed an order for 150 more at $28.30 after selling 300 ALDW in the wife's regular IRA about a half hour ago. I figure it to execute but this thing is sooooooo slow!
More later. You keep us posted, too!
Got them, now we are all in it together
Put in an order 200 @ 28.30. We will see
As things settle in on my addled brain, I'm thinking I may have been too abrupt in putting DKL on the proverbial back burner.
True, trading volume is paltry, at best. But that need not mean I shouldn't hold a position. I just need to scale position size to what will become executable, should the need arise.
That said, I picked up another 100 units today and now hold 200 units of DKL with a cost basis of $28.50 or a dime above the prevailing price/unit.
Something we might want to think about is the bottom line effect of dropping down assets into DKL, an event-in-waiting already announced by DK, the General Partner for DKL. There should be no doubt as to this becoming instantly accretive to DKL's bottom line. With that in mind I'm expecting to continue adding here, knowing full well that I may elect to tap out should NGL go on fire sale level or some other pick do so. DKL, for the moment, represents a petty cash drawer.
It can't possibly hurt me to place a smallish amount of cash into this pick paying about 10% yield. The active investor engaging in frequent trades could do far worse than taking a position in DKL.
Is it money being placed into a passive fund of sorts? Sure, it most certainly is. So what? Is that bad?
I think not. None of us can be sharp or smart all of the time. Having a bit of a cushion sitting in the background undisturbed will probably result in some nice distribution money accumulating. This frees me up for dealing with far larger positions in other picks. And a position of just over a few hundred units is most likely going to fetch about $1,000 annually with more to come following the dropdowns from ALDW.
This is interesting and I'm thinking I may have been hasty in not reserving a place for a very modest outlay of cash.
Ponder, everybody.
Well, I've gone and done it! Started a position, just a starter with 100 units at $28.70. I'll probably add another like amount if it drops closer to $28. It's looking like it will be the case.
Meanwhile, I'm now feeling justified in being a moderator here and less like a visiting alien.
My wife will insist I'm an alien, though. But I'm please to say she's not asked me to go back to that other galaxy. lol
I feel better now---was feeling like a kid from the other side of the tracks trying to keep up with the big boys.
$1,000 a share?
Nooooooohhhhh, not me! lol
Thanks for clearing it up.
Now, then---go fetch grandpa a diaper, huh?
I meant DKL, not MKL. Yikes, thanks for pointing out.
You make a lot of sense.
You might look over your results YTD and determine where your gains have come from. If the pendulum swings more from divvies, then you might look at why.
I make my gains from appreciation although distributions from NGL are handing me $35,000/yr so that works, too.
Because I do better via appreciation, I decided today to launch a small position in DKL much as you're doing. I'll wait for a serious dip before doing so.
Jugs...Since DKL is so lightly traded I think 500 units will be tops for me...Probably can get out if needed...I like the disbursments....So maybe I'll get capital appreciation from DK and nice disbursements from DKL!!! The best of both worlds!!! GLTA!!!
MKL is running over $1,000/share.
Are you sure you posted the correct symbol? It's definitely too rich for me and pays out no distributions.
Ouch!
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