Coffee Holding Company (JVA)

[Canoepaddler]

A post from ymb:

argyle46 • Apr 11, 2014 2:07 PM
2users liked this postsusers disliked this posts1Reply
Perspective
When coffee was $1.20, JVA's net income = $0.22 eps.

4 quarters of that give JVA a P/E ratio of 8.61.

That is almost a worst case scenario. Coffee will NOT be $1.20 the rest of the year and JVA's earnings should only improve with higher prices.

Think about value before freaking out about what one or two shorts tells you is going to happen. Because they are lying to you.

JVA's not only a great momentum stock, it is a value stock too. Realize that with $1.20 coffee and earnings of $0.22 eps per quarter, fair value is $15 (P/E ratio of 15).

[value1008]

Has anyone modeled what kind of EPS JVA could do with coffee averaging $2/lb or $2.50/lb?

I'm trying to get a sense poring thru some SEC filings but if someone has already worked up a realistic model, i'd like to hear about it.

The current trailing twelve-month (ttm) EPS is -0.16 after the unfortunate low coffee prices of last year; if they just repeat the 21 cents (from this past qtr) each of the next few qtrs, the ttm EPS will move up to 0.11, then jump to 0.65, then 0.84 by end of this fiscal year (ending Jan. 2015). But they'll likely be earning much more as outlets and customers stock up on coffee, no?--in advance of likely much higher prices in 2015?

Pro-rating JVA's best EPS qtr of 0.24 (qtr ending Jan. 2012) over 4 qtrs gets to 0.96 EPS for a full year. In 2009 they had a quarter where they made 0.31 EPS, but i assume (perhaps incorrectly) there are more shares since then on dilution, so i won't count that.

The $7.70s s/p on this collapse of the Nasdaq today had me buying 4k shares, but if this is as good an investment as i think it is, i may swing more monies into it.

Thanks in advance to anyone who can present some realistic earnings numbers for JVA on higher coffee prices.

[Canoepaddler]

Got me some today,..even at these coffee prices, this one is worth a bundle. Looking to add more tomorrow.

[swampboots]

Ok some 7.72.

[swampboots]

Took sip 7.72.

[free_bee]

Coffee up again . JVA = Junior PEIX

http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/coffee.aspx

[free_bee]

Brazil drought )..


Coffee Caps Biggest Rally in Six Weeks on Brazil Drought

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-08/coffee-caps-biggest-rally-in-six-weeks-on-brazil-drought.html

Coffee price up a lot since Jan 2014
http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/coffee.aspx

[damondon]

Watching this one ,does anyone know the true O/S

[starbuxsux]

Coffee has been on fire the last few weeks!

[beach_trades]

JVA

[Stressrelief]

They are hedged in a higher prices so it's been killing there bottom line. They stated that they have exited some of there hedging positions so depending on when they did this and how much they are still hedged in will determine there bottom line. Earning Q 4 earning should be out by the end of this month.

[joemont]

It seems like this stock price trends with the price of coffee beans. Currently its down, and it was way up in 2011 when the bean price was high.

Anybody have some insight.

I also like their exposure to China now.

Anybody out there? what do you think.

[joemont]

Can someone tell me if the low coffee bean prices right now will help with profit margins at JVA?

As a roaster company, will they benefit from these bean prices?

Or is their stock going to continue to go down?

[polkamatic]

Coffee Holding Co., Inc. today announced its operating results for the three months ended January 31, 2013.
ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=56760131&symbol=JVA

"We are pleased with our results for the quarter.In the first fiscal quarter of 2012, we recorded record revenue of $56.6 million, which was more than 121% of the first fiscal quarter of 2011 revenue and well in excess of any previous fiscal first quarter and not consistent with our historical growth.We believe this year's level of sales of $31.3 million in the first fiscal quarter of 2013, while below the first fiscal quarter of 2012, is more normalized from a historical perspective. Excluding 2012, our revenue for the first quarter of 2013 well exceeded previous first fiscal quarter results. In the first fiscal quarters of 2011, 2010, 2009, and 2008, we had revenues of $25.6 million, $21.4 million, $18.9 million, $15.0 million, respectively. In addition, during this quarter our gross margins increased on a percentage basis from 7.9% to 11.8% reflecting our efforts to increase our profit margins which we believe will result in greater future profitability for the company. We also believe this is a successful result given the negative impact on our profitability attributable to our withdrawal of our investment in Global Mark during the quarter," noted Andrew Gordon, our President and CEO.

"We experienced growth in key areas compared to the first quarter of fiscal 2012, most importantly on the branded and private label sides of the business. We believe it is the growth in these two areas that will ultimately enable us to achieve the targeted annualized gross profit level of nine percent for our 2013 fiscal year. A more favorable revenue mix is the first step for overall increased margins. We also believe coffee prices will rebound in the second half of 2013, helping to improve both our revenues and profits on the sales of wholesale green coffee. We anticipate a more normalized growth pattern on a going forward basis, while we remain focused on margin expansion and new business opportunities," stated Mr. Gordon.

Results of Operations

The Company had net income of $937,537, or $0.15 per share basic and $0.14 diluted, for the three months ended January 31, 2013 compared to net income of $1,578,345 or $0.25 per share basic and $0.24 diluted, for the three months ended January 31, 2012. The decrease in net income primarily reflects lower sales for the period year over year and the write off involving the Company's investment in Global Mark partially offset by higher gross margins of 11.8% during the three month period.

Net sales totaled $31,318,804 for the three months ended January 31, 2013, a decrease of $25,282,880, or 44.7%, from $56,601,684 for the three months ended January 31, 2012. The decrease in net sales primarily reflects lower coffee prices as well as reduced volumes of wholesale green coffee sales during the three month period.

Cost of sales for the three months ended January 31, 2013 was $27,636,207 or 88.2% of net sales, as compared to $52,151,940 or 92.1% of net sales for the three months ended January 31, 2012. The decrease in cost of sales reflects a shift in our overall business to a higher percentage of roasted coffee sales which tend to be more profitable on a percentage basis than our green coffee.

Total operating expenses increased by $65,686, or 3.6%, to $1,895,178 for the three months ended January 31, 2013 as compared to operating expenses of $1,829,492 for the three months ended January 31, 2012. The increase in operating expenses was due to increases in selling and administrative expense of $82,907 partially offset by a decrease in officers' salaries of $17,221.

About Coffee Holding

Coffee Holding is a leading integrated wholesale coffee roaster and dealer in the United States and one of the few coffee companies that offers a broad array of coffee products across the entire spectrum of consumer tastes, preferences and price points. Coffee Holding has been a family-operated business for three generations and has remained profitable through varying cycles in the coffee industry and the economy. The Company's private label and branded coffee products are sold throughout the United States, Canada and abroad to supermarkets, wholesalers, and individually owned and multi-unit retail customers.

Any statements that are not historical facts contained in this release are "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. We have based these forward-looking statements upon information available to management as of the date of this release and management's expectations and projections about certain future events. It is possible that the assumptions made by management for purposes of such statements may not materialize. Actual results may differ materially from those projected or implied in any forward-looking statements. Such statements may involve risks and uncertainties, including but not limited to those relating to product demand, coffee prices, pricing of our products, market acceptance, the effect of economic conditions, intellectual property rights, the outcome of competitive products, risks in product development, the results of financing efforts, the ability to complete transactions, and other factors discussed from time to time in the Company's Securities and Exchange Commission filings. The Company undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement for events or circumstances after the date on which such statement is made.

[starbuxsux]

Good question...here's a guess?

Total operating expenses increased $262,117, or 3.6%, to $7,607,269 for the fiscal year ended October 31, 2012 from $7,345,152 for the fiscal year ended October 31, 2011. Selling and administrative expenses increased $184,446, or 2.7%, to $6,900,199 for the year ended October 31, 2012 from $6,715,753 for 2011. The increase in selling and administrative expenses reflects several factors, including increases of approximately $120,000 in labor and related taxes, $42,000 in freight costs, $95,000 in insurance cost, $50,000 in travel/show and demo expense, $28,000 in office and computer related costs, and $31,000 in equipment maintenance, partially offset by a decrease of approximately $56,000 in professional fees, $28,000 in advertising costs, $30,000 in packaging development costs, $55,000 in commission expenses and $13,000 in charitable contributions.

...“During 2012, we saw major growth in sales of our flagship brand, Café Caribe, and we believe we will be able to build upon such growth during 2013. In addition, we made our first sales of green coffee into China, validating our belief that this can be a promising new avenue for revenue growth. Our wholesale green coffee and private label sales also remained strong in spite of the volatility in both the coffee market and the macro environment,” added Mr. Gordon.

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1007019/000135448813000336/jva_ex991.htm

[CallmeBull]

Great earnings report why the big sell off today?

[Marketwise]

Fundamentally and technically, the stock is looking like an attractive investment again. GLTA

[starbuxsux]

JVA - Hello old friend...lol

[kel3]

Green Mountain stocks up inventory on demand bet

http://articles.marketwatch.com/2012-08-01/industries/32977918_1_green-mountain-single-serve-coffee-market-keurig-brewers

GMCR Insider Buying
http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2012/08/10/a-flurry-of-insider-buying-at-gmcr/?mod=yahoobarrons

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/GMCR/2014249498x0xS909954-12-57/909954/909954-12-57.pdf

http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/gmcr/insider-trades

JVA Inside Buying at the Begining of Q3,He Already Had the Inside Track then from GMCRs Ordering
http://biz.yahoo.com/t/90/6828.html

[invest2win]

Indeed. GL

[polkamatic]

Nice turn here today!

GL

[invest2win]

This stock moves fast.

[invest2win]

Just about at our 52 week low. Can't go wrong buying here IMO

[invest2win]

Should be back on an upswing soon.

[invest2win]

3 Reasons to Buy Coffee Holding Company

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2012/07/14/3-reasons-to-buy-coffee-holding-company.aspx#.UAMttpH9xJs

[invest2win]

And yet back down again. Moves great but can't seem to hold gains.

[polkamatic]

I mentioned it to admin. I think it might be fixed so here's to iHub service!

GL

[johnsou]

Same thing on etrade

[invest2win]

I think they are a little late. These analysts kill me. If it goes down for 2 days they'll downgrade it. I think being a stock analyst is as good as being a weatherman these days. Speaking of which it was supposed to hit 70 degrees today where I am in NY and it's 40. Case closed!

[chukbee]

UPGRADE for JVA from The Street See Link Strong Buy http://www.thestreet.com/story/11458376/1/coffee-holding-company-inc-stock-upgraded-jva.html

[MONEYMADE]

,,,,,,,Open gapper...Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeee $13--MONEYMADE

[conversekidz]

Looks like a decaf day today, need to bring the full leaded cup tomorrow.

[MONEYMADE]

JVA...grab your baskets anny $11's

[conversekidz]

Looks like the rocket is running out of gas

[polkamatic]

Wrong company...that is for Asantae which uses ticker JVA on the Toronto exchange. Their news alerts are getting cross-listed here as a result.

GL

[Green17]

Looking good...!

[MONEYMADE]

Yes,,,,they tried a fade near the close but my daytraders held STRONG HAHAAA!

MONEYMADE

[MONEYMADE]

Nice base $14...will test $15

[Troy Lando]

The RealW8 white paper can be found at http://bit.ly/wGwdek (choose 'save', or
'save as')

[Troy Lando]

The Fox News interview with Dr. Lundell can be found
http://video.foxnews.com/v/1503058626001/

[invest2win]

Awesome day yesterday! Wow.

[Green17]

What's for tomo...??

[MONEYMADE]

[JVA] $12'S...FOR GAP UP

[MONEYMADE]

$13.55 TAKING BREATHER

[MONEYMADE]

1M SHORT....$13 WILL GO SOON--MM

[MONEYMADE]

,,,,,,,Here comes $13 shorts Weeeeeeeeeeee!--MONEYMADE

[MONEYMADE]

JVA Investors Looking For $30 After Strong Earnings

After Coffee Holding Company (JVA) posted its quarterly results, on Friday, the stock blew up and the Yahoo! Message Board hasn't been quite the same since. During the six months prior, JVA had traded lower by nearly 60%, but on Friday after announcing earnings the stock jumped a massive 35%. A gain such as this should be enough to satisfy investors, but this particular group of investors is hard to please. Because after all, JVA is a stock that was trading as high as $30 back in July 2011, not to mention, it maintained a level above $15 for 30% of last year. Therefore, investors have particularly high expectations when it comes to JVA, regardless if expectations are too high.

On Friday, JVA blindsided the investment community with its incredible earnings report, after posting previous reports to insinuate operational troubles. The company posted revenue growth of 120% year-over-year with $56.5 million in sales. The company added a 50% increase in net income and an EPS of $0.25 compared to $0.19 in 2010. The strong earnings were driven by an increase in coffee prices (which did not affect demand) and an increase in sales of green coffee. The company also experienced an increase in private & branded label sales; and added its popular Cafe Caribe to four additional supermarket chains, since the start of 2012, which could be huge.

As a result of such strong earnings the stock posted a massive gain, and investors are already setting limit orders for $30. Back on June 6, 2011 the stock was priced at just $7 but after a very strong quarterly report and a major increase in momentum the stock jumped over 300% in just one month's time. The setting is very similar for shares of JVA, which were priced at $7.83, to close on Thursday. The stock had been trading with pessimism, but with another quarter of strong earnings, and profitability, investors feel as though it could spark another round of momentum, and a price of $30.

Despite the striking similarities between now and June 2011 there are still several issues within the company. The company continues to post a decline in margins, due to higher costs. During its recent quarter, operating costs increased 8.5% despite a decrease in officer salaries. The company's CEO Andrew Gordon mentioned this problem and said, "higher increases in sales of green coffee as compared to increases in private label and branded sales have impacted our overall gross margins." He then added "we will always take growth as long as it is profitable." I agree with Gordon and believe that as long as the company is profitable its margins aren't necessarily affecting the company. However, it's a problem that investors must watch, and with margins that are much lower than last year some investors may not be so willing to jump on the JVA band wagon, making it more difficult to reach the $30 milestone.

In addition to a decline in margins the momentum that was once present in coffee stocks has declined. Unfortunately, JVA doesn't trade on a similar trend as Starbucks (SBUX), but it does trade very similar to Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR). During the first half of 2011, both GMCR and JVA were momentum stocks, and I believe the success of GMCR paved the way for JVA to trade higher. But when GMCR fell off its ledge, as did JVA, and neither stock has been able to successfully recover.

In the past, JVA has traded somewhat close to GMCR, therefore Friday was encouraging to investors. Starbucks had announced that it would be pushing itself into the single serve coffee market, which could directly impact GMCR's Keurig. As a result, GMCR lost nearly 16% of its value on Friday, as fear that Starbucks would take market share and no longer provide single serve K-Cups. Obviously, it was a bad day for GMCR investors, but the negative movement did not affect JVA, which is a sign of encouragement.

Overall, the company posted a great quarter with major increases in sales and income. However, there are still issues with margins and the momentum within the coffee industry has somewhat diminished, besides Starbucks. As an investor, be happy with $10.60, and don't necessarily be counting on $30. I am not saying its impossible, JVA could easily build up enough momentum to become a $40 stock, but its crash would be very hard.

One positive note regarding JVA is that it does have a large number of investors who believe in the company. I myself was long JVA, before selling the stock after declining margins and fear of net loss led me to take a loss. Therefore, I was overwhelmed with excitement when the company posted such strong earnings, as were other investors evident by its 1,700% increase in volume.

I think the majority of Friday's rally was a result of investors such as myself. I have always kept JVA on my "watchlist" and I pay attention to any developments that may create new optimism within its shares.

On Friday, after earnings were announced, I purchased just 275 shares for a price of $9.21 at 9:09 ET (according to my broker). I wasn't willing to enter a large position, but still felt as though it was presenting a good opportunity with such a strong report. I believe there are a large number of JVA investors such as myself, who are slowly entering the water rather than diving off the board. It will be interesting to see how JVA plays out over the next few weeks. If the stock can overcome GMCR's troubles, and any investor pessimism regarding margins, then it could be very special. But as an investor, I am happy with $10.60, and will take it day-by-day, if the stock trades to $30 then I will be ecstatic, but for longs, it may be better if the stock is slow and steady.

Disclosure: I am long JVA.

[High Roller]

Yeah buddy rolling hard!

[MONEYMADE]

6M os....$30???I believe!!!!!!--MONEYMADE

[High Roller]

Yeszzzzzzzz!! Money!