Coffee Holding Company (JVA)

[value1008]

Has anyone modeled what kind of EPS JVA could do with coffee averaging $2/lb or $2.50/lb?

I'm trying to get a sense poring thru some SEC filings but if someone has already worked up a realistic model, i'd like to hear about it.

The current trailing twelve-month (ttm) EPS is -0.16 after the unfortunate low coffee prices of last year; if they just repeat the 21 cents (from this past qtr) each of the next few qtrs, the ttm EPS will move up to 0.11, then jump to 0.65, then 0.84 by end of this fiscal year (ending Jan. 2015). But they'll likely be earning much more as outlets and customers stock up on coffee, no?--in advance of likely much higher prices in 2015?

Pro-rating JVA's best EPS qtr of 0.24 (qtr ending Jan. 2012) over 4 qtrs gets to 0.96 EPS for a full year. In 2009 they had a quarter where they made 0.31 EPS, but i assume (perhaps incorrectly) there are more shares since then on dilution, so i won't count that.

The $7.70s s/p on this collapse of the Nasdaq today had me buying 4k shares, but if this is as good an investment as i think it is, i may swing more monies into it.

Thanks in advance to anyone who can present some realistic earnings numbers for JVA on higher coffee prices.