China Unlimited

[surfer44]

Rolling Stones have a lot of mood swings. As do investors. lol

" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=

[surfer44]

One reason I like drybulk and oil tankers over containerships is that drybulk and tankers are fragmented with a lot of small players (more severe valuations) and containers have 5 big companies (but they can also have great valuations). What would move first, I'm not sure.

So what I've learned over 13 years. Have 1 or 2 midcaps in the portfolio. Microcaps can sit there forever but midcaps will not.

Enjoy the ride up!

[surfer44]

China-made COVID-19 vaccines safe, effective: FM spokesperson

Some people will believe this. Some will not. Where do you stand?

" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=

[surfer44]

I look at drybulkers and oil tankers, never containers. Since shipping is so cyclical I think atm drybulk (neutral), oil tankers (bullish), containers (neutral). However ZIM looks cheap. I'll take a closer look and if they have long term contracts I might be bullish on the company. And we may get a reopening trade to boot.. Nice find!

On BDCO and ITUP I'll let you guys handle it. It's more analysis than what I do (which is cursory).

[RealDutch]

Aren't you into shipping companies? ZIM looks cheap but don't know much about it. And it's still not too late to buy BDCO. Stock will rally at some point.

[surfer44]

Bought some PDD. A large cap, who would have thought. Customers save 80% on their purchases through group buying. In tier 3-4 cities, involved in agricultural. Video below is a pretty good summary. I don't think BABA and JD are going to pursue, China frowns on monopolies. PEG ratio shows undervaluation.

" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=

[surfer44]

Coal is zooming up again. China coming online? Should be good for drybulk shippers.

[surfer44]

The Doors - Break On Through. Aka KWEB.

" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=

[surfer44]

The West Is The Best - Jim Morrison. Sorry Jim, not this week.

" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=

[RealDutch]

I bought some more for $1.20. Still trading close to a P/E of only 0.5
Too bad HERB hasn't delivered yet (either). They should have.

[MaterialMind]

I see, hope you still made some decent profits on the way.

[RealDutch]

FENG is getting cheap again.
Someone has been dumping stock the past 2 days.
I don't think it will go below $2.
Unfortunately I can't buy it on margin because brokers are assholes.

[RealDutch]

Last chance to buy HERB today.
They said they will file tonight.

We may very well get the CBD as well (that they were secretly working on in 2015)

[tbirdman]

;)

[surfer44]

Correction. HUYA is not an education stock.

[surfer44]

I guess China wants some easy living too. Doesn't everyone????

" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=

[surfer44]

Wow. KWEB up 10% today! BABA anyone????

Probably short covering.

[surfer44]

China education stocks catching a bid. HUYA, GOTU, TAL, EDU. Ton of cash on their balance sheets. Had to adjust to education reforms.

[RealDutch]

You didn't miss much.

[MaterialMind]

No dividend from Laxmi, no BDCO.

[RealDutch]

Yes, we all have a pretty good idea which company to invest in.
Unless you have been asleep for the past 6 months.

[NewJerichoMan]

If this diesel shortage in the US is real, any guesses on which companies to ride here?

[surfer44]

Microsoft to surpass target of 10,000 Chinese employees. Wow...

" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=

[RealDutch]

Shell sees 2024 aviation fuel demand recovering to pre-pandemic levels
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/shell-sees-2024-global-demand-aviation-fuel-return-level-before-pandemic-2022-09-27/

[RealDutch]

Jet fuel = 3.31/gallon = $139/barrel
https://www.airlines.org/dataset/argus-us-jet-fuel-index/
Brent oil = $86/barrel
=> Profit Margin = $53/barrel.
Historically this has been below $20

There aren't many oil companies, even fewer refineries, that produce jet fuel.
You need special equipment for that.

[surfer44]

"The West Is The Best" Jim Morrison 1943-1971

" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=

[surfer44]

BOAT etf for dividends and a play on global trade. Grains, oil, lng, containers, cars, and more all covered in one etf

[surfer44]

Of course, next year could be a deep economic crisis in large parts of the western world, maybe price of oil will come down again.

Asia will pick up the slack. Populations in millions....

China 1,427
India 1,352
US 327
Indonesia 267
Pakistan 212
Brazil 209
Nigeria 195
Russia 145
Germany 83
Ukraine 44
Taiwan 23

[MaterialMind]

Alright, sounds good!

You seemed a little negative on the BDCO board recently, so wanted to ask about your thoughts.

EPS $2.70 brings the P/E close to 0.45... Sounds a bit too good to be true. Of course, next year could be a deep economic crisis in large parts of the western world, maybe price of oil will come down again.

[RealDutch]

Good plan. Expecting EPS $0.80 for Q3 and EPS $2.70 for FY 2022.
It's cheaper than most Chinese stocks.
All the rest is noise.
They should have enough money already to fix the defaults.

[MaterialMind]

BDCO. Every dollar you can invest, could be worth 10 in a couple of months.

How is this one developing? I took a peek at the message board and the 10-Q, but cannot make sense of it. Do you still think it will turn around soon? They defaulted even though they are making a profit?

I was thinking about putting the ITUP dividend into BDCO...

[surfer44]

I like this news. It could solve a big problem.

UPDATE 2-Moderna open to supplying COVID vaccines to China, CEO says

Wed, September 14, 2022 at 12:22 AM·1 min read


TOKYO, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Moderna Inc has held talks with the Chinese government about supplying COVID-19 vaccines, but no decision has yet been made, CEO Stephane Bancel told Reuters on Wednesday.

As the rest of the world gradually lifts COVID restrictions, China continues to lock down enormous parts of society and conduct mass testing to eradicate the coronavirus. It has not approved any foreign COVID vaccines and relies on several domestically developed shots.

"We are open, we have the capacity", Bancel told Reuters on the sidelines of a media conference in Tokyo about supplying its mRNA-based shots to China, declining to say whether Moderna had submitted its vaccine for approval there.

A Moderna spokesperson said those discussions had happened in the past and it could not comment on whether those talks were still ongoing.

There is about a 20% probability that a "problematic" variant of the virus could emerge this winter, Bancel said, adding it was not his base case scenario.

"We should just always be humble about biology," he said.

Bancel, speaking in Tokyo, said Moderna was considering building facilities in Japan to produce mRNA-derived products.

Japan on Monday approved vaccine boosters from Moderna and Pfizer Inc that target the Omicron variant of the coronavirus.

Moderna sued Pfizer Inc and its partner BioNTech SE last month for patent infringement in the development of the first COVID vaccine approved in the United States.

Moderna believed from the beginning of the outbreak that BioNTech was using its technology and patents, but decided to wait until the pandemic subsided to file suit, Bancel said. (Reporting by Rocky Swift; editing by Tom Hogue, Jason Neely and Bernadette Baum)

[surfer44]

Important Catalyst to Watch!

" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=

[surfer44]

Scott Ritter and Friends talk about Mikhail Gorbachev

" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=

[surfer44]

Gorbachev was a reformer. Rest in peace.

" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=

[surfer44]

The devil is in the details. One thing for sure is that anything that China deems national security will be on the prohibited list. And rightfully so. The U.S and Europe will do the same thing.

[MaterialMind]

That's too bad, I hope they will extend it to all Chinese companies.

[surfer44]

I think it's about delisting from the big boards NYSE and NASDAQ. I don't think OTC stocks apply.

[MaterialMind]

I guess this will be applied to all Chinese companies listed in the US? Even companies like HERB?

Since HERB has been saying they have to keep the plantations off balance sheet, due to the sensitive nature or something, I guess this will really force their hand in that case. Pushing them to complete whatever they have going on with the preferred stock dividend etc.

[surfer44]

Commentary from Kraneshares regarding the audit agreement.

HFCAA First Step Audit Agreement Reached

This morning, the SEC, PCAOB, and CSRC, in conjunction with the Ministry of Finance, released statements announcing the signing of a Statement of Protocol allowing the PCAOB to conduct full audit reviews of US-listed Chinese companies. The deal is the first step as the audit reviews still need to take place. Considering all of the companies are audited by the "Big Four" accounting firms' China arms, this should not be a big deal.

The voluntary delisting of five State Owned Enterprises' (SOEs) US ADRs was a significant signal of a deal as these companies do have sensitive information that could be seen in an audit review. Non-SOEs, on the other hand, have nothing to hide, as many have publicly stated. This is significant news as the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act (HFCAA) has been an overhang on the space.

Active emerging market mutual funds have an average of 2% underweight to China as they have been hesitant to buy Chinese internet stocks due to potentially bad HFCAA news coming out. These managers are at significant risk of underperforming if the stocks rebound.

Considering the significant valuation discount due to the HFCAA, one should hope for a significant rebound on re-rating. Hong Kong short sellers have been pressing their bets on the stocks, as evidenced by Hong Kong short sale turnover, which has increased +50% in the last six months versus the 10-year average. Today, Hong Kong's short sale turnover increased +8% from yesterday, which is 83% of its 1-year average, versus total turnover, which was only 78% of its 1-year average. 23% of Tencent’s trading was short today, 24% of Meituan's trading, 15% of Alibaba's, and 21% of JD.com's. 47% of the largest Hong Kong-listed ETF was short volume today! Shorts have pressed their bets based on light summer volumes, knowing that many investors are on vacation or unwilling to step in and defend the stocks due to HFCAA. A strong short squeeze accompanied by institutional buying should be a strong catalyst. Fingers crossed!

Congratulations the SEC, PCAOB, CSRC, and MoF for their hard work and efforts! $2 trillion of US investors' savings was put at risk due to the HFCAA.

[surfer44]

The weeds are being removed from the garden. Only took a decade.

[surfer44]

China, U.S sign deal on audit dispute in a step to avert delistings
Fri, August 26, 2022 at 1:46 AM
HONG KONG (Reuters) -The U.S. audit regulator said on Friday it has signed an agreement with Chinese regulators, taking a first step toward inspecting and investigating registered accounting firms in China and Hong Kong.

The Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) said it was the most detailed and prescriptive agreement the regulator has ever reached with China.

U.S. regulators have for long been demanding access to audit papers of Chinese companies listed in the United States, but Beijing has been reluctant to let overseas regulators inspect accounting firms, citing security concerns..

The decision marks a major thaw in U.S.-China business relations and will be a huge relief for hundreds of Chinese companies and investors who have invested billions of dollars in the firms that have a chance to retain access to the world's deepest capital markets.

By Friday, 163 companies, including Alibaba Group, JD.Com Inc, and NIO INC had been identified by the U.S. regulator as facing trading prohibition risks for not complying with audit requirements.

In a statement, the PCAOB said the agreement would allow it "sole discretion to select the firms, audit engagements and potential violations it inspects and investigates – without consultation with, nor input from, Chinese authorities."

The U.S. regulator added its inspectors would be able to "view complete audit work papers with all information included and for the PCAOB to retain information as needed."

"The PCAOB has direct access to interview and take testimony from all personnel associated with the audits the PCAOB inspects or investigates," it said.

China's Securities Regulatory Commission said the agreement was an important step towards addressing the auditing issue.

It added keeping Chinese companies listed in the United States benefited investors, companies and both countries.

The signing of the protocol between China and the U.S. signals that both sides have "made a crucial step to solve the audit regulatory issue of U.S. listed Chinese companies through enhanced cooperation", according to the CSRC statement.

"It is in line with the hope and expectation of the markets…if cooperation afterwards satisfies each side’s regulatory needs, there is hope that the audit issue will be resolved, and passive delisting will be avoided."

Current U.S. rules stipulate that Chinese companies that are not in compliance with audit working papers requests will be suspended from U.S. trading in early 2024, but that deadline could get brought forward.

Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) chairman Gary Gensler said Chinese companies still faced delisting if their accounts could not be accessed by U.S. authorities.

"Make no mistake, though: The proof will be in the pudding," he said.

"This agreement will be meaningful only if the PCAOB actually can inspect and investigate completely audit firms in China."

Major Chinese companies listed in the United States rose in premarket trading, with Alibaba Group Holdings up 2.6%, Pinduoduo gaining nearly 6% and Baidu Inc up 3.3%.

"This is seen as a positive first step. However, things are not fully cast in stone yet, as seen from the various sudden reversals in the past," said Samuel Siew, market specialist at CGS-CIMB.

(Reporting by Samuel Shen in Shanghai, Xie Yu, Julie Zhu and Selena Li in Hong Kong, Michelle Price in Washington, Tom Westbrook in Singapore. Writing by Scott Murdoch. Editing by Himani Sarkar, Raissa Kasolowsky and Tomasz Janowski)

[surfer44]

"The German In Venice" exploring Amsterdam...

" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=

[surfer44]

A little off topic. Here "The German In Venice" is in Venice Beach, California, about 30 miles from where I live. I'll post a video of him visiting Europe also.

" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=

[surfer44]

OTOH Apple doesn't have the worst balance sheet. Could be a slow grind down instead of a crash.

[surfer44]

I'd rather buy KWEB than QQQ. Not that I'm buying either one.

KWEB P/B 4.3 P/S .55
QQQ P/B 8.9 P/S 4.6

QQQ P/S is 8X higher than KWEB.

[surfer44]

Chart of Apple is ridiculous. Especially since the company has almost a $3 TRILLION mktcap. Potential for a crash here.

[RealDutch]

Above record levels now. They will open up the gasfield in Dutch Groningen, wait and see. It's just a matter of enough people pressuring the government to act. And the crowd is beginning to panic. Pitchforks are next. lol.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-06-09/netherlands-groningen-gas-field-offers-opportunity-to-loosen-putin-energy-grip

[RealDutch]

Natgas prices close to record levels now. Very extreme. Due to several "summer" factors. It's not even winter yet. lol.

Some Dutch guy commented on it like this (translated)

Last week, gas experts calculated for the umpteenth time in the Dagblad van het Noorden that the gas crisis can be solved in a simple way. Gas tap in Groningen temporarily wide open, not to the levels of the 1980s, but to 30 billion cubic meters per year. This solves the gas shortage in the Netherlands and neighboring countries, immediately drops the gas price and deprives Putin of his main weapon to push the European economies into recession. Provides the Dutch treasury with 40 billion euros per year, which means that the government deficit that is running out of control is solved in one fell swoop and there is still a considerable surplus left to compensate the people of Groningen for the damage.
Unfortunately, our directors do not understand or do not want to understand the total cost-benefit analysis, bury their heads in the sand and cause untold economic and social damage through their delay. Meanwhile, Putin is laughing his ass off.

[RealDutch]

WTF have I been telling you guys about PCTL?
You deserve to lose every penny on this stock.

At least with BDCO you have a fighting chance in this friggin market.
We are trading far below a P/E of 1 after all.