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Agreed, and you don't hire CCG and then think a 0 volume day on earnings is acceptable...very disappointing.
So far I would say it feels "silly" more than suspicious.
They've done presentations, shown unaudited returns and done a CC. If there was any doubt they could have asked for a 15 day grace period, they didn't.
I don't know who is auditing the accounts? It could all rely upon Chinese in which case nothing until tomorrow, sigh.
rich
They were a big board stock not too long ago and didnt seem to mind much about being de-listed.
Time for management to step up to the plate and get this sucker back on the big-boards
Wow that's definitely concerning, these guys aren't pink sheet caliber, they need to step their game up, what the heck is CCG investor relations doing for them? Arent they supposed to advise them on this sort of thing along with bring exposure..this is silly
They did not put an NT form in. That means you have 5 days grace to get 10-K filing in. This they haven't done - so we get E airfixed to the name.
I have asked IR to get onto it. We'll see.
rich
Making us more hidden even more than we were before, what's up with all this symbol changing...exhausting
The symbol has been changed to CCLTE.
lmcat
Didn't get the ask at the close.
For some reason, my bid at the $ 8.75 ask wasn't fill so I'll try to fill in in the morning.
I put my money where my mouth is, twice.
Just bought 100 at $ 8.75 in my wife's IRA.
Now bidding 100 at $ 8.70 in my account. If that doesn't fill, I'll hit the ask at the close.
That will be 2 extra shareholders from my end.
Also got 100 CFQCF - so did my bit for both.
Ditto, my buy at 15:19 p.m.
Added some commons to my warrants, so you've got at least 1 more today.
I think it's an excellent idea. It's just the # of bodies that count I guess.
If increase shareholders is needed for an uplisting, why don't we all just buy 100 shares each. We probably could get at least 50 extra shareholders by doing this.
I'm not sure how to handle the float part of the problem though.
HTJ, I probably bought your warrants today. I should have bought them at $ 1, but I've been waiting for the 10-K to commit to CCLTF. My concern was that there is going to be an eventual slowdown in real estate construction all over China by the time CCLTF finally began to gain some coverage in the marketplace, so I've had reservations about dipping my toe in the water.
However, the numbers from the 10-K made me a believer that it the risk may not be as large as I thought. I like the fact that they have a backlog and that their margins are increasing.
Problem still remains that CCLTF needs to hasten their exposure to the general marketplace and institutional investors. I can't see this happening until this goes to the NASDAQ because most institutions don't look at OTCBB stocks at all.
I can see holding these warrants for another 6 to 12 months before we see any price action on them. Hopefully the NASDAQ uplisting will occur sooner than that.
How can I expect the common to get any volume when 95% of my position in this company is in the warrants? Given how undervalued it is, I just do not see any reason to invest in the common versus the warrants. The upside is simply not as large.
On the bright side, the warrants got 290k volume or $464k dollars traded. So there was definitely buying interest.
I probably bought your shares today, or maybe Glen Bradford got them...hehe...
-Fernando
To have zero volume the day before and the day of an earnings release is just bizarre. It was good to see the volume in the warrants, but geez...ZERO volume in the common for two straight days? That was enough for me to sell half of my warrants today.
good volume with the warrants, but 0 on common with earnings release...looks like ill be stuck in the warrants for a while, this wont be discovered any time soon it looks like
So far non-event, as I thought it would be... Listing on the higher exchange could put it on the map. Lots of moves on the BoD.
Updated projections for CCLWF using actual 2009 numbers
Share price: $9.00
Shares o/s: 8.9M
Warrant price: $1.46
Warrant strike price: $7.50
Warrants o/s: 15.55M(will raise $116.5M when converted)
The projections include the cash and use 25.7M o/s(includes the warrants) and are based on announced 2009 numbers:
2009 Net Income = $26.20M($1.02 eps using 25.7M o/s)
$9.00(share price) - $4.57(cash) = $4.43 adjusted share price.
$4.43/$1.02(Expected 2010 eps) = PE of 4.34
Projections(using 2009 eps of $1.02):
PE of 5 = $9.67(intrinsic value of warrants = $2.17)
PE of 6 = $10.69(intrinsic value of warrants = $3.19)
PE of 7 = $11.71(intrinsic value of warrants = $4.21)
PE of 8 = $12.73(intrinsic value of warrants = $5.23)
PE of 9.5 = $14.25(intrinsic value of warrants = $6.75)
Warrant potential:
Share price of $11 = $3.50(140% upside)
Share price of $12 = $4.50(208% upside)
Share price of $13 = $5.50(277% upside)
Share price of $14.25 = $6.75(362% upside)
Summary:
Using the cash method for the warrants it only requires a trailing PE of 9.5(which brings the o/s to 25.7M) to make it to the $14.25 redemption price for the warrants. It currently has a PE of 4.34 on a trailing 2009 basis.
-Adam
The sad part is I don't think we will be discovered on that PR, it's not that clear cut...and the spread on this stock is terrible. Would have been nice if they spoke about nasdaq uplisting etc.
2009 EPS: I dont know why everybody keeps using a different non- GAAP eps than the one used by the Company today. I know this all comes from using different FD b/c of the warrants (I was using 8.5M too for 2009)but officially, the Fully Diluted share count as of End 2009 is 6.462M shares. So the "official" non GAAP eps for any future comparative purposes should be = $4.06, not 2.94 or 3.46.
No?
You are right, but the market will probably use $3.46 eps as their number when doing projections.
I personally will use $2.94 eps(8.9M o/s) but that's just me.
No matter which way you cut it China Ceramics is extremely undervalued at present levels :)
-Adam
Redman, I already commented about it on the main board but shouldn't we exclude the one time merger costs in our PE and EPS math? I mean these costs won't come in 2010 so for 2010 the numbers look even better.
2009 EPS $2.94(using current 8.9 O/S)
Even using their current share count of 8.9M it still looks very cheap at 3.1x trailing PE, especially when they are projecting 30% growth going forward.
-Adam
The good: order backlog is up 36% YOY. That helps alleviate the concern over whether there are actually buyers for all the tile that they can make at their new facility.
Well we already knew this as it was written in the march presentation. That's definitely a positive and important to show the street that they have the demand for more production lines.
CCLTF $3.46 eps for a $9 stock....crazy cheap!
The good: order backlog is up 36% YOY. That helps alleviate the concern over whether there are actually buyers for all the tile that they can make at their new facility.
More good: One of the new directors is a retired PWC partner. That adds credibility.
The bad: The other new director is a wet-behind-the-ears lawyer. It looks weak.
They are ready to go for Nasdaq if it wasn't for the tiny float and the shareholders count.
Nothing that really stands out so far. I really like that fact that gross margins are expanding every quarter and were sitting at 36% as of Q4/09, and that the three production lines at the new facility are already being used at full capacity.
They also have appointed two new directors to the board effective April 1st/2010.
-Adam
So the adusted net income was higher than expected (+13%) at $26M rather than $23. They are producing 3 lines from the aquired plant and their expansion plans are on track.
Anything bad?
rich
CCLTF/CCLWF - $3.46 EPS 2009 ($26.2M Net Income)
Net revenue was (US$ 128.7 million), an increase of 13.3% from 2008.
Gross profit was (US$ 43.5 million), an increase of 22.3% from 2008.
Gross profit margin was 33.8%, compared to 31.3% in 2008. Gross margin was 36% in Q4/2009.
Non-GAAP profit before tax excluding the merger costs incurred in Success Winner Limited's reverse recapitalization was RMB 238.6 million (US$ 34.9 million), up 26.2% from RMB 189.1 million in 2008;
Non-GAAP net profit excluding the merger costs incurred in Success Winner Limited's reverse recapitalization was RMB 179.3 million (US$ 26.2 million), up 8.6% from RMB 165.0 million in 2008
Earnings per fully diluted share were RMB 23.65 (US$ 3.46) compared to RMB 28.73 (US$ 4.13) in 2008.
Tiles: 'the average selling price per square meter increased by 5.5% in the fourth quarter of 2009 compared with the same period in 2008.'
Cash and bank balances(as of Dec 31st/2009)were RMB 150.1 million (US$ 22.0 million), compared with RMB 162.3 million (US$ 23.7 million) as of September 30, 2009. The decrease in cash and bank balances was a compound result of RMB 81.4 million (US$ 11.9 million) of cash provided by the reverse recapitalization transaction with China Holdings Acquisition Corp., offset by the partial payment of RMB 145 million (US$ 21.2 million) in the fourth quarter of 2009 for the acquisition of the Gaoan plant.
Bank borrowings have gone down from RMB 34.5 million (US$ 5.0 million) as of September 30, 2009 to RMB 26.5 million (US$ 3.9 million) as of December 31, 2009 due to repayments in the fourth quarter of 2009.
Business Outlook: China Ceramics' nine production lines at the Jinjiang facility and three production lines at the Gaoan facility are all running at full capacity.The current annual production capacity at the Jinjiang facility is 28 million square meters and 10 million square meters at the Gaoan facility. The annual production capacity at the Gaoan facility is expected to reach 42 million square meters by the end of 2011. Mr. Huang added, "Our immediate focus for 2010 is increasing our production capacity to meet growing market demand for our products. We also expect to continue to benefit from the central government's RMB4 trillion stimulus plan and China's continued urbanization." The Company's backlog of orders for delivery in the first quarter was at approximately RMB 242.2 million (US$ 35.5 million), representing a year-over-year revenue growth rate of 35.9% compared to the first quarter of 2009. The expected sales volume is 9.1 million square meters, which would represent a 30.1% year-over-year growth in sales volume from 7.0 million square meters sold in the comparable period of 2009.
"We are pleased to report another strong quarter that exceeds our revenue and net income guidance for the full year," said Mr. Jiadong Huang, Chief Executive Officer of China Ceramics. "Our rapid growth was driven by our ability to increase our production volume to meet continued robust market demand. The majority of our revenues come from the domestic market in China, which we believe will continue to exhibit growth in the quarters ahead."
http://xsltm1.finance.vip.sp2.yahoo.com/news/China-Ceramics-Reports-prnews-3608578805.html?x=0
-Adam
This company is about as under the radar as you can get. There is no analyst coverage and it had ZERO volume the trading day before earnings that should come in at $2.66/share. I think we could see a big move up on Monday.
If they report $2.66 shares the headline alone could be worth a quick $2-$3 move considering how thin CCLTF trades. I have a GTC order to sell my warrants at a much higher price. We'll see how the market reacts on Monday.
Brilliant...such insight...I'm shocked you have zero membermarks LMAO!
That happens with the stocks that had a massive run-up. This one is barely even known to many, so I don't expect a sell-off on the earnings release. Most likely non-event though, since earnings are pretty much expected, unless they surprise big to the upside. What I'm waiting for is the eventual move back to higher exchange. They should have enough shareholders within next 3-4 months timeframe.
China Ceramics Co., Ltd. Schedules Conference Call to Discuss Fourth Quarter 2009 and Year End Results
PR Newswire
JINJIANG, Fujian, China, March 29 /PRNewswire-Asia-FirstCall/ --
China
Ceramics Co., Ltd. (OTC Bulletin Board: CCLTF, CCLWF, CCLUF) ("China Ceramics"
or the "Company"), a leading manufacturer of ceramic tiles, which are used for
exterior siding, interior flooring, and design in residential and commercial
buildings, today announced that it will conduct a conference call at 8:00 a.m.
eastern time on Monday, April 5, 2010 to discuss the fourth quarter 2009 and
year-end financial results.
To participate in the live conference call, please dial the following
number five to ten minutes prior to the scheduled conference call time: +1
(866) 672-3985. International callers should dial +1 (706) 902-4207. When
prompted by the operator, mention conference pass code 64941517.
If you are unable to participate in the call at this time, a replay will
be available for 14 days starting on Monday, April 5, 2010, at 10:00 a.m.
eastern time. To access the replay, please dial +1 (800) 642-1687,
international callers dial +1 (706) 645-9291, and enter the pass code 64941517.
About China Ceramics Co., LTD
China Ceramics Co., Ltd., formerly China Holdings Acquisition Corp., is a
leading manufacturer of ceramic tiles in China. The company's ceramic tiles
are used for exterior siding, interior flooring, and design in residential and
commercial buildings. China Ceramics' products, sold under the Hengda or "HD"
brand, are available in over 2000 styles, colors and sizes combinations and
are distributed through a network of exclusive distributors or directly to
large property developers. For more information, please visit
http://www.hengdatile.com .
For more information, please contact:
China Ceramics Co., Ltd.
Edmund Hen, Chief Financial Officer
Email: info@hengdatile.com
CCG Investor Relations Inc.
Mr. Ed Job, CFA - Account Manager
Phone: +1-646-213-1914
Email: ed.job@ccgir.com
Mr. Bryan Blake, Sr. MI Executive
Phone: +1-646-833-3416
Email: bryan.blake@ccgir.com
Web: http://www.ccgirasia.com
SOURCE China Ceramics Co., Ltd.
Sorry everyone for my error regarding the March 29th release date. I was obviously dilusional when I thought I read that somewhere. Going crazy at 30, not a good sign :(
-Adam
Earnings will be released on April 5th.
Ah, you're right. I can't read english looks like :). I emailed PR, they replied they are looking into it and will let me know soon.
The way I read it the PR they mention will probably be reporting the actual earnings instead of when the earnings release will be.
-Adam
:)..only info I could find says before end of march, but also says they will have a PR out before. wierd, nothing out yet.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/China-Ceramics-Co-Ltd-prnews-1794471604.html?x=0&.v=62
The Company expects to hold a conference call to discuss audited results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2009 at the end of March 2010. Prior to the call the Company will issue an earnings press release and provide dial in information for investors wishing to participate on the call.
I think I must have dreamt that earnings were today because I was the one who posted about it but cannot for the life of me find where I read it. Sorry for the 'possible' misinformation, but I'm still holding out that I did read it somewhere otherwise I may be going crazy ;0
Doesn't matter a lot anyways since it will be by Wednesday at the latest.
-Adam
Is the earnings release after market today? Cannot find info anywhere. Thx.
That's fine, to each their own, but your concerns aren't happening overnight and this isnt a long term investment...they can announce the intention of a redemption any day. Good luck to you though! We are both going to be very happy with CCLWF I think!
I wasn't considering the cashless redemption when determining the breakeven point. Using that redemption method I do see how it's possible to get a cost basis below $4.
So then the decision is whether you believe they will use a cashless redemption or a $5 redemption when they make the warrants effective.
I personally will still stay on the sidelines because of my initial reasons of not liking the business model and also the inherent risk of being at the whim of casino management. My major concern is that AERCF will start to do well and the casinos take notice and either ask for a larger cut, or create their own departments and stop outsourcing to AERCF. Gamblers can be greedy and I just can't put it past them that some of the casinos won't attempt an oust in the foreseeable future. They may not, but I'm not about to risk my hard-earned money fighting the nature of the beast and since I consider this a possibility it's impossible for me to discern the future cash flow potential of AERCF.
I'm sure you will do well with this investment, it's just not for me.
-Adam
Thanks for clarifying the cashless option. It would be great for warrant holders to convert w/o paying anything extra at a cost basis of max 3.92! In this case, the "half" diluted O/S will be approx.:
12.5M + (14.6M/2) = 19.8 M shares (instead of fully diluted= 27.1M shares)
and the 2010 eps at earnout will be:
36.8 / 19.8 = $1.86 (instead of $1.36)
Assuming a share price of $15, the adj. PE will be:
15/1.86= 8 (cashless option)
For comparison, a PE of 8 in the fully diluted case (warrants redeemed for $5/sh) would yield a share price of only $13.6. Thus cashless means faster price appreciation since the diluted eps will be comparatively greater. Now I see why you said Mgmt may prefer the cashless option since they dont really need the extra cash.
On #2....no that isn't the case...because if they reedeem and you get your warrants converted over...your cost basis per share is less...
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=48275896
So, let's assume possible cashless exercise and the best scenario for the company, that would mean the minimal dilution. That would be when common are traded at around $8.50 for the last 3 days before redemption.
Then, the formula for calculating the common shares all warrant holders will receive when exercising would be as following:
N [warrants] = N * (current_common_price - exercise_price) / current_common_price [shares]
10k warrants = 10k * (8.50 - 5.00) / 8.50 = 4,117 shares
So, your 10k warrants get exchanged for 4,117 shares without any cash from you, assuming the price of common is at 8.50 at a time of redemption call. The higher the price, the more shares you will receive.
Company doesn't get any cash for it, but the dilution is minimal. With normal redemption, they would get cash ($5 for each warrant), but all 10k will be added to O/S.
If the common stays at 9.50, then for your 10k warrants you get 10k * (9.50 - 5.00) / 9.50 = 4,736 shares.
Again, the formula depends only on common_price prior to redemption and exercise price.
-------------------------------------
So let's say you bought 10k at $1.65 that's $16,500 cash outlay
Now after the conversion let's say you get 4200 shares that means to break even your cost basis is $3.92 for the common...
You see what I'm saying now? The risk/reward is fantastic IMO especially since they got to that 20 day above $8.50 requirement already.
AERCF - Redemption
1) Probably is the right word and you may be right, I just have trouble getting my mind around the business model. To many uncertainties for me. But again that's me, you may know things I don't which justifies this investment. You are right you may be able to sell the warrants before conversion but everyone else might be thinking the same thing which will dampen the warrant price, so you may never see $3.
2) If you spend $1.65 for the warrant and $5 for the conversion, it will cost you $6.65 in total cash outlay, so breakeven is $6.65. You may be buying more value than that but the total cash contribution will be $6.65/per common.
1) Huh? If the company announces they wish to reedeem, the warrants will probably jump past $3 and you can sell the warrants before any conversion.
2) Furthermore, if you do hold your basis price would not be $6.65 edj on the other board figured it out, I think its something like the cost basis would be in the high $3's...so I wouldn't worry about it.
-Adam
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