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High Short Interest stocks in our space....CCME 50%, RINO 50%, CHBT 40%,
http://www.highshortinterest.com/
resistance and support levels... once one is past, and show as close of day, newer numbers are calculated..
reading the charts.
what do these # mean?
11.56 11.95 13.00 13.21 13.98
retest of 11.40 needs to hold.
nice chart. I see the point and figure chart has just flipped. Now project or predicts a target of 19.5, which seems very reasonable over the foreseeable future.
SA article: "Why I don't think CHBT is a fraud?"
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/566955-yosanti/102095-china-biotics-why-i-don-t-think-chbt-is-a-fraud
Reprint from Yahoo board: 7 reasons to own CHBT
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Business_%26_Finance/Investments/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_C/threadview?bn=75878&tid=7107&mid=7107
Congrats guys! 7th biggest gainer on Nasdaq, more to come for sure.
http://finance.yahoo.com/gainers?e=o
I'm REALLY liking the volume here today........very solid, and supporting this price increase very nicely.
We are a low float company with a huge short position.,,,,,,,,yummy.
Budget
WHEEEEEEE !!!
Goal for next week:........CATCH CCME......!!
Budget
half the float is short. ENJOY. This will make the ccme short squeeze look tame.....they will not be able to get out under 30 bucks a share....hot diggity dog
half the float is short. ENJOY. This will make the ccme short squeeze look tame.....they will not be able to get out under 30 bucks a share....hot diggity dog
Thanks...CHBT easy money....
nice call! Nov 12.5 at 0.90 now.
gang, Nov is a good option month. Expires Nov 19, almost a week after Q2 E/R. I am expecting eps of about 0.45 and ttm eps=1.51 for Q2 with updates about share buyback, new bulk customers after many have tested the samples sent out en masse last Q, updates about the Phase 1 and 2 ramp up at Qingpu as well possible partnerships at Yangling, maybe some partnership with Danisco... In other words, many good news ahead and the spring is tightly coiled right now!
way too deep for me....the charts tell me what others are thinking and I run with the trend....right now the charts suggest we are ready to move back up...that all I need to know....
Somehow I suspect that the company is not doing all it can to get its stock price back up to $15 level where it was at before the short attack. Maybe it wants to buy back more shares at current levels before Q2 results come out mid Nov. It would be easy for them to publish the complete list of its current store addresses that shorts keep hacking at. Or come out with bullish updates about the progress of sample testing or orders by new bulk customers , the status of production rampup, negotiations with Danisco during its CEO's recent meeting with Song...
There's also the issue of Pope. Maybe Mgmt doesnt want the SP to go much above $14.3 (avg cashout price per share for Pope) before Dec 11, so Pope will decide to get cash back($25MM plus interest) instead of converting to shares (2.08MM shares at $12/sh). The shares would probably cost the company much more in the long run than the cash, don't you think? Just a speculative thought here.
Anyone?
Good to hear your opinion on this, Burp !!! I have been getting the November $.55 - $.60 calls also, as they look too good to pass up........thanks for all your option help, by the way...!!
Budget
CHBT $11.40..options options options...been adding more of the $12.50 calls today @ .60..averaging up from .35... CHBT has been held down by all the BS fraud bla bla bla and continued ambulance chaser law firm news about bla bla bla....CHBT is close to shaking this off as the trading range continues to tighen each day....I believe CHBT is ready for a good $1.00+ pop to get a good run into earnings started....
Look at another comparison of 2 seemingly unrelated stocks, CNAM and PUDA (except they are both commodities stocks). If we plot CCME and CHBT which are non-commodities stocks on the same chart, I think we will see also a fairly good correlation.
What this means is that the old saying "a tide lifts/sinks all boats" sometimes overpowers the merits/differences of individual stocks at least wrt to large price fluctuations (>40% or so) while smaller fluctuations (<20%) will probably be determined by the merits and fundamentals of individual stocks. But there are of course always exceptions like SIAF or BORN.
Viking,
Thanks a lot for the feedback. I appreciate it. Amazing how close those two charts are! Strange. Hopefully what's happening with CCME will get mirrored here as well. Not to say there hasn't already been a nice run up with CHBT from its lows. But, obviously, there "ought to be" a lot more. At any event, thanks for the feedback.
Steve
CHBT value line coverage, rated a 2 for timeliness
This week we welcome China-Biotics
to The Value Line Investment Survey. This
Shanghai-based company produces and
markets probiotic dietary supplements in
China. Probiotics are live bacteria that improve
intestinal health and digestion. The
company sells these products over the
counter through the ‘‘Shining’’ brand
name, one of the most recognizable brands
in China. China-Biotics (CHBT) also supplies
its probiotics as bulk additives to the
food industry, specifically the dairy market.
CHBT is expanding (see below) and is
endeavoring to market its proprietary
dietary probiotics to the international
markets, primarily in the U.S.
The company’s annual sales tallies are
ramping up nicely. CHBT posted revenues
of $30 million in 2006, the year it
went public, and is expected to generate a
top line of around $120 million in fiscal
2010 (ends March 31, 2011). About 60% of
sales of probiotics are to the retail sector,
and the remaining 40% are to the bulk additives
industry. The dairy market accounts
for about 70% of the bulk business,
while animal feed customers account for
the rest (30%). China-Biotics has been selling
an increasing volume of its retail product
via the Internet and steadily closing
down its bricks-and-mortar outlets. We
look for the top line to jump another 25%,
in 2011, to around $150 million.
Meantime, share earnings will likely
double to $1.60 this year. Closure of
more retail stores will certainly widen
margins due to cost cuts. Furthermore, the
growing popularity (particularly in the
United States) of consuming more organic
(natural) dietary supplements is boosting
units sold and enabling CHBT to raise its
selling prices.
This stock has a popular following,
with a float of almost 50% of shares outstanding.
Insiders, specifically the
founder, Song Jinan, owns much of the remainder.
Investors should note that the
stock moves quickly, and is more suited to
the investor with a trader’s mentality.
Earnings should continue upward
through 2013-2015. The company appears
to be onto a growing global health
trend, and its bulk probiotic business is
becoming an increasingly solid cash generator.
Jeremy J. Butler
I think shorts are done, stock will be recovering quickly along with many other China stocks with strong fundamentals. Here is a chart of CHBT vs CCME, another stock that has been heavily shorted but not as massively attacked as CHBT:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=CHBT&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=ccme
So what's the verdict? Are people urging their parents and grandparents to load up on CHBT now? Or do people think the shorts are moving towards another scare campaign to drive the price down?
The eye witness reports have been compelling, but are the shorts that easily knock out of the picture? I suppose they've already made a tighty profit knocking it down from above $14 to below $9. And then there's earnings coming out soon which can't be a good thing for shorts. Still, I thought I'd ask to see what others are thinking at this juncture.
Thanks in advance,
Steve
btw this Yahoo poster claims to own 2% of the company now. That's 0.5MM shares ! and still adding.
another strong "eye witness report" from an individual investor (from Yahoo board):
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_C/threadview?m=tm&bn=75878&tid=6085&mid=6128&tof=1&rt=1&frt=2&off=1
Glenn: good point. I have however mixed feelings re. setting a stop loss for any of my China stocks.
I have suffered big losses in the past b/c of stop losses (set even as low as 50% compared to 20 to 25% stops for my US holdings) just to watch the same stocks zoom back to profits a few weeks or months later. So I did away with stop losses this year. If I had kept it at 50% stops, probably 1/2 of my portfolio would have vanished by now. But on some (like XODG and GCHT and options of course) I wish I had those stops in place as many are still deep under water.
just fyi...
most investors don't kill themselves by limiting losses, but by cutting gains. that's at least my sentiment according to reading the market wizards.
Today is first day of a new quarter, so we may see institutional buying intensify from here on as fund managers who have shorted the stock or were on the sideline in recent weeks decide to jump on board without having to worry much about window dressing.
$11.50..Congrats to all who had bigger balls than me this time around....grrrrrrr
Very interesting survey of probiotics usage trends by Euromonitor Global Market Research.
In 2009, China finally overtook Japan as the heaviest consumer of probiotic cultures, reaching over 10,000 tonnes. Euromonitor International predicts that by 2014 this will have risen to almost 18,000 tonnes, accounting for nearly 30% of global consumption.
Apart from China, which racked up a colossal 284% volume increase, Asia- Pacific's most dynamic markets over the 2004-2009 review period were Indonesia and Malaysia, where probiotic culture volumes soared by around 60%.
http://blog.euromonitor.com/2010/09/probiotics-rising-dairy-consumption-and-lactose-intolerance-create-opportunity-in-asia-pacific.html
It wasn't a good day Viking, it was a GREAT day!
The tide is turning and people are starting to notice the investment opportunities in the chinese names. Just look at CCME, NEP, SIAF, and TPI, along with CHBT. All continue to post solid earnings results.
Only one way to go and that's up as far as I'm concerned.
Congrats to y'all for sticking it out, great day for CHBT and many other CGS stocks today :)
Thanks right back at you Steve, that's indeed a very interesting post. The glroy days of the SEC-SAIC issue should be over by now and after Monday and today, I really hope, but also think, that this could finally be the turn we all have been waiting for.
Share buyback, open books and confirmed cash, articles from 3rd parties about possible new JV factory, it's all there. And not only in the case of CHBT, but with our little Chinese in general.
I am positioned and watching, CCME, CHBT, GFRE, LPH, CKGT, NEWN, SIAF should be doing well. All well positioned, good cashflow, we will see :)
Thanks for posting that link, Rayhuh. I liked the comments from the poster "Professional Sceptic":
I am an auditor for D&T in the U.S., I've performed dozens of audits for large public companies. The steps taken by CHBT to provide greater transparency to its investors and the due diligence by Mr. Nevader and many other serious CHBT investors resemble the same procedures my engagement team would use in the field. Such as confirming cash balances with bank confirmations or bank statements (as an alternative procedure), developing an expectation of revenue for the firm's largest customers, and observing the client's facilities to gain an understanding of the business. These examples all fall under Generally Accepted Auditing Standards (GAAS) issued by the Auditing Standards Board of the AICPA in the US. Whether you personally believe there are over 100 retail outlets or not, the fact remains that the auditor's report gives credibility to information stated in the financial statements not some analyst who may have his own agenda to short the stock. The auditors, as a group independent of management, have an objective view and can report on a company's activites without bias or conflict of interest for the benefit of stockholders and any other interested outside party. In my opinion, the combination of meticulous due diligence from investors and an auditor's "unqualified opinion" provides sufficient support towards management's analysis and conclusions regarding presentation and/or disclosure of CHBT's financial statements. After weeks of research and an in-depth investor's day, the attacks towards CHBT appear to have no basis or merit and fundamentals will eventually prevail. Keep up the good work Jason and I will remain long on CHBT
Sean Wright: "our Next 5x Investment" SA article
http://seekingalpha.com/article/227548-china-biotics-your-next-5x-investment?source=yahoo
China-Biotics: Operations are Very Impressive
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/691175-jason-nevader/96700-china-biotics-operations-are-very-impressive
New article from Jason Nevader posted on his instablog at SeekingAlpha
Thanks Viking
because of your posting this.I got back in at 9.37
Thanks Buddy
Robert Hsu reiterates Buy on CHBT:
http://www.investorplace.com/stock-picks/top-5-china-stocks-to-buy-now.html
Sean Wright's SA Investor Day notes (SA article):
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/671911-sean-wright/95795-chbt-what-really-happened-at-the-investor-day
My remarks : Since bulk sales will be CHBT's main revenue growth engine in the future, it's important to see what some of their large bulk customers say about them. Here is what Bright Dairy (top 3 dairy producer in China) said about CHBT:
Bright Dairy: Values the product’s stability, safety, and price competitiveness. The price competitiveness is unparalleled. The product’s stability and quality is the same level as Danisco. CHBT is very good in five areas: (i) a professional and fast-reacting team of technicians, (ii) a well-trained sales and marketing staff, (iii) on-time delivery, (iv) low prices, (v) flexible customization based on request. CHBT has a great future and the cooperation between Bright Dairy and CHBT will accelerate.
It's also interesting to see how CHBT's officials valuate their bulk sales potential based on current market pricing.
Dr. Ma Kai: Production and Quality Control. Dr. Kai spoke fluent English. He said at 150 tons Phase I will be the largest probiotics facility in China and should produce 750m RMB of revenue. That translates into 112mm USD for 150mt bulk which will be reached at Qingpu Phase 1 by End of 2011, or an ASP of $745/kg.
CEO: We want to grow very fast but we must pace ourselves. In 1-2 years we will be producing 300 tons per annum.
Using the above ASP of $745/kg, the CEO's prediction of 300 mt/y in 1-2 years translates into 224mm USD of bulk sales (only from Qingpu). For comparison, JNevader used ASP=600 and 750/kg for Phase 1 and Phase 2 (Qingpu) bulk pricing in his most recent model and projected 188mm bulk sales for Qingpu at 300mt annual production for FY2013. This doesnt however include any sales from Pudong plant (12mt), retail sales and bulk sales from the Yangling plant, latter was projected by Nevader to be 155mm USD in FY '13. This is just to show that Nevader's projections are about 16% low compared to Mgnmt's view of bulk sales pricing for Qingpu products. So there's plenty of upside here for Nevaders' "optimistic" projection if things fare out the way the Company has planned it.
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/691175-jason-nevader/93680-china-biotics-the-next-billion-dollar-food-ingredients-company
Here are some more notes of the Investor Day (by Patel_1146, Yahoo board) fyi:
Part 1:
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_C/threadview?m=te&bn=75878&tid=5187&mid=5187&tof=3&frt=2#5187
Part 2:
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_C/threadview?m=te&bn=75878&tid=5188&mid=5188&tof=2&frt=2#5188
PS: I personnaly am more curious to see what kind of cooperation CHBT will settle on with Danisco from the VP's visit on Sep 30. That's more important to me than all this noise over the past few weeks that SHALL pass imo.
Roth must be under intense pressure from all the funds that participated in the $75mm raise in Oct 2009 at $15/share (Roth was the underwriter). At $10/sh before the Roth downgrade, these guys who bought over 5m shares in 2009 lost over $25m. One theory is they want to recover their loss by shorting the shares they own and need somebody to further drive the price down to $8 so they can cover. Who else can do that if shorts' bashing has lost most teeth after the Investor Day? (Nevader reported on Yahoo that the Roth analyst appeared very nervous all day on the Investor Day and was looking for any possible flaw to dig in. He was also looking for another job!).
Another theory is these funds needed another catalyst to push the stock down so they can further lend their shares to shorts at a hefty 20%+ fee. If the stock goes down to $8, the speculation is somebody could buy CHBT out or do a M&A at say $21/sh (8x FY2011 eps plus cash=6.50/sh) that would force shorts to return the shares to the lenders that stand to reap a win/win. Anyway the Roth downgrade seems very suspect with very weak reasoning.
Just thinking gout loud.
Regarding your thoughts on future institutional ownership...
If CHBT buys up the float at current prices, they can reissue the shares in private placements to the institutions at more favorable pricing at a later date. Maybe even include a lock-up period.
I'd hate for them to take the company 100% private. We'd miss out on all the future growth!
I tend not to be an active shareholder and don't get involved with the IR people. Feel free to pass it along though. Also, you can copy my post onto the China Growth message board if you want(I'm not a member of IH so I can't do it).
Big: I think that's a great idea. Why don't send it to Travis Cai?
OK..so here's a radical idea...
It's obvious the shorts are just keeping at this company. So what can CHBT do to counter it?
According to yahoo finance, there's about 9.35 million shares in the float. At $9.00 a share, that's just over $84 million in shares. CHBT has about $160 million in cash.
So here's an idea for the company; spend the cash. Forget the $20 million buyback, just buy up the entire float or as much as the company can get its hands on. Any stock holder that doesn't want to sell doesn't have to.
You want to see shorts run for cover and the share price skyrocket to $17 or so a share? That's how they can do it.
Long term investors rewarded, short term traders screwed.
And there you have it....
Interesting: looking to compete with Danone and Hansen on international markets? Quote from PR that came out today:
We have established our international sales team to pursue global market opportunities, as we are confident in our product quality and pricing competitiveness. Our long-term corporate strategic direction remains to focus on growing our business in China and eventually diversifying our revenue source to overseas market.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Growing-Bioengineering-to-prnews-620326301.html?x=0&.v=31
adding.
i forgot the principle: if analysts knew what they were doing they'd be hedge fund managers/retired.
they lower guidance at bottoms and upgrade at tops. nothing to see here.
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China-Biotics, Inc. ("China-Biotics," "the Company"), a leading manufacturer of biotechnology products and supplements, engages in the research, development, marketing and distribution of probiotics dietary supplements. Through its wholly owned subsidiary, Shanghai Shining Biotechnology Co., Ltd., the Company has operations in Shanghai. Its proprietary product portfolio contains live microbial nutritional supplements under the "Shining" brand. Currently, the products are sold OTC through large distributors to pharmacies and supermarkets in Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang. China-Biotics plans to launch 300 Shining brand retail outlets in major cities in China. Currently, China-Biotics is strategically expanding its production capacity of probiotics to meet growing demand in the bulk additive market. For more information, please visit http://www.chn-biotics.com
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