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CHBT BUY CONFIRMED...
http://americanbulls.com/StockPage.asp?CompanyTicker=CHBT&MarketTicker=NASD&TYP=S
Let's hope we get a nice runup to above 15 in the next few days and your Feb 15 may shine again. The stock was above 17 or so a few days before the Citron hitpiece #2 came out (Jan 26 I believe?) and since it has been in a range b/w 14 and 15. I am holding some Feb 12.5 that I got at 0.95, now trading at 1.63.
Citron's first hitpiece came out End of August and caused quite some damage (from 15 to 9) for a few months before the stock recovered to 15. Interesting that the second one barely had any effect. So much to the longetivity of hitpieces. Let's see if Citron has more luck with CCME this time, I strongly doubt it.
CHBT hoping for a good CC feb 9th and then an nice move back north before options expire Feb 18th...today hammer candle is the textbook bullish reversal candle at support of the 50ma...she will go imo...
http://www.fxwords.com/b/bullish-hammer-candlestick.html
CHBT, added some Mar $15 calls today, already have Feb $15 (underwater)
Hi Viking. Thanks for all the feedback. It's encouraging hearing your thoughts as I feel you're on the front lines while I'm back in some cloak room! I won't be selling before earnings as the most dire predictions seem unlikely whereas earnings should be a good catalyst. I tend to be a long term buy and hold type of guy. But I'm beginning to question the wisdom of it given how volatile this space is together with the increase of hit pieces coming over the wires. But since I don't have the time to devote to it, and since this space ought to come back in favor at some point, perhaps in the long run I'm better off just holding tight and, like you, think more in terms of a multi year time frame. At any event, I really appreciate the feedback from you, and am glad to see you haven't been deterred by the hit pieces on CHBT.
Thanks again. And good luck to you and all.
Steve
Hi Steve: good to hear from you again. Yes, the last few weeks I have been very busy following CCME and the amazing fast-paced events that have been unfolding there like SWITOW, insider selling, RegSho, Citron hitpiece... It's the 4th time within the last 5 months that one of my CGS stocks has been hit hard by a short attack, starting with CHBT, then UTA, then TSTC and now CCME. What's next?
I can only share your anger about this getting old and we longs have to watch this game over and over and lose much money in the process while shorts get away with it unpunished and making good money most of the time with their smear job. I agree that it's important that CHBT gets a top 4 auditor like PWC, not sure if that's true though b/c I havent heard any confirmation from Company yet. Hopefully we"ll know more in a week (if not sooner) when they announce Q3 results on a CC.
But unlike you I will not make the PWC issue a condition for me to stay or move on. I am in this stock for the long haul b/c of its outstanding growth prospects that in my opinion far outweigh the other issues, as evidenced by the many recent visits by top brass of other big players to CHBT's headquarter. I think that as a LT investor I can ride the ups and downs that will come along the way but the payoff in this case will be worth it probably in 3 to 4 years (if they don't go private or get bought out before haha...).
Hoping for a nice move next week with earnings..been adding the Feb $15 calls...gulp!
Hi Viking,
I've been so busy that I thought others would have heard something about this issue, but apparently not. I really appreciate the step you've taken--one I obviously could have done if I was more on the ball. Fortunately, the stock now seems to be holding up okay, so waiting for the February date to come and go won't be long nor, hopefully, hazardous. That is, we should know quite soon whether or not the new auditor comment is true or not.
This is really getting old, these hit pieces take away any meaningful gains and bring you right back to where you started. And now CCME. Apparently this is the new reality of this space as the shorts have found a way to make a ton of money by coming up with their own news. Of course, there are a bunch of fraudulent Chinese companies out there. But given the hit pieces absolutely guarantee profits for whomever writes them with a short position on, the line between exposing the truth pure and simple versus making a lot of money is completely blurred. Indeed, I've about had it with CHBT. If the "news" about CHBT hiring new auditors doesn't pan out, I think I'll be moving on. Seeing this stock run up nicely twice and then get shot down twice is starting to look like a pattern. If the company doesn't take meaningful steps to put the issue conclusively behind them, I don't see why the lucrative hit pieces won't keep showing up every time there's a significant rise in share price. It makes me start to wonder why I'm so dump not to figure out the game that's being played and move on accordingly rather than watching the phenomenon repeat itself again in 3-6 months.
Are you still as strong as ever on the stock? Or are you frustrated that the company hasn't taken meaningful steps to prove the falsity of the allegations leveled against it?
Again, thanks for your help,
Steve
Hi Florinda: I have sent an email to Travis Cai about your question. Let's see if I get a response from him. It's a day before Chinese New Year though........
Has anyone heard anything further about CHBT supposedly engaging Price Water House in early February? Traderfan had noted on the CGS board that someone was claiming this. Here's his post:
"I saw this comment here and thought it might be interesting to some here in case it's true what we of course don't know."
"EVERYBODY PAY ATTENTION.
I HAD A CONFERENCE WITH TREVIS CAI CFO OF CHBT.
THEY ARE GOING TO CHANGE AUDITOR AND THE NEWS WILL BE RELESE THE 8 FEBRAURY 2011.
THE NEW AUDITOR WILL BE PRICE WATHER HOUSE.
END OF THE STORY"--post #69992
I find it hard to believe that this kind of information would freely given out by CHBT's CFO before it was made public. Hence, my question.
Thanks,
Steve
yes I have learnt to look at these BS attacks as a gift to longs, eh ?
Nice rebound in the last 30 minutes. I grabbed a few Aug $15 calls when it hit the $13.90 range.
haven't looked through it yet. From what i read on CGS board, seems like a rehash.
Thanks. Just saw it on the CGS board. I haven't looked through it yet - is it just another rehash of the old arguments?
Thanks. Just saw it on the CGS board. I haven't looked through it yet - is it just another rehash of the old arguments?
Any idea/speculation on what's driving today's selloff?
Clayton Reeves-SA article: nice discussion of CHBT
China-Biotics Inc. (CHBT) – China-Biotics is one of the leading Chinese producers of probiotics, which are basically good bacteria for the gastro-intestinal tract. You can research probiotics on your own for more clarity, but it is a booming worldwide business that is estimated to be growing at +20% a year, and sometimes even faster in certain markets. China is one of those markets. As the middle class in China gradually rises up, there will be more demand for health foods and specialty items that could take advantage of probiotics. We already do it here in the United States, with products like Activia. There are also health food movements that use things like kefir and probiotic supplements to help keep the intestines happy. So why choose CHBT?
First, is the tremendous value. By any estimation, it seems that CHBT is vastly undervalued relative to their peers. One of their major competitors were bought by DuPont a few weeks ago for a premium on their share price. This automatically makes everyone else in the industry subject to takeover analysis, although CHBT’s price has yet to reflect this premium. This is a great opportunity to get in on a company that can a) capitalize on the increase in domestic consumption in China and b) provide both a great fundamental and relatively valued investment. There is a huge short position in the stock, amounting to over 30% according to Kapitall, but I am contrarian on that front and believe the shorts will be fruitless. It is only a matter of time before people realize that CHBT is too cheap. As a result of my confidence, I am assigning a price floor of $22 and a ceiling of $45 to CHBT. I think that there is tremendous upside to this stock, and would add it to a Chinese equity portfolio in a heartbeat.
CHBT provides preliminary FY'11 Third Quarter Revenue: the $32 to 33MM rev guidance agrees well with Nevader's estimate of 32.4MM rev for Q3'11. If you look at his article below, he estimated also a Net Inc of 12.96MM and an eps of $.55 for Q3. For FY2011 ending March 2011, his estimates are 118.6MM rev, 43.7MM net inc and $1.87 eps.
Looks like no new bulk customer was added in Dec as the total of 51 is the same as what they reported through Nov'10. I found it interesting that they mentioned in the PR:
Encouraged by the government, both the academia and corporations have been increasing their efforts in expanding the application of probiotics as well as its potential as a replacement for anti-biotics in China. China-Biotics continues to invest in R&D and has increased exchanges with multinational probiotics producers. The company has scheduled to report its fiscal year 2011 third quarter results on Feb 9, 2011.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ChinaBiotics-Inc-Provides-prnews-906899398.html?x=0&.v=1
http://seekingalpha.com/article/242696-china-biotics-my-top-stock-pick-for-2011
you may be right that there may be something else loomimg. The Feb puts are extraordinarily high both in volume and price and outpace calls by a factor of 2 to 10. Even Feb 10 puts traded with over 2000 contracts @ 1.20 with a break even at $8.80 share price! Feb 12.5 puts traded with about 8K contracts (=800K shares) and a closing price of $2.4. That's an insane bet.
To me this looks however like a dead-cat bounce considering the ridiculous arguments and methods used. Rehash of old arguments that nobody believes any more: missing stores, SAIC based tax issues, lie about bulk customers... using a hastily written and poorly translated chinese article. What I smell is Waldo and his shorty buddies have their back now against the wall with their millions of CCME shares short/naked short about to be forced-buy-in in a matter of days. You are talking about an armageddon. Shorts will need $50-100MM in cash to cover the 5MM+ shares within a week or so as CCME is already on RegSho Day 4. They desperately need to come up with quick cash and will not shy from any quick-and-dirty coup to save their a**. The high put volume reminds me much of what happened back in August a few days before Citron released their attack on CHBT: thousands of puts were bought. The stock indeed tanked from $15 to about $8 within weeks thereafter and shorts made tons of money. But that was in September. Do they really believe that they can repeat that act this time? When you are in a black hole, you'll do anything to get out. That's how I see it.
Here are a few recent articles about our friend Waldo:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-13/texas-short-seller-fights-china-fraud-in-20-billion-u-s-shares.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-13/texas-short-seller-fights-china-fraud-in-20-billion-u-s-shares.html
This drop just smells. I simply can't see how a rehash of the original Citron report could exlain the Feb $12.5 and $15 PUT action, coupled with a 20% drop in the commons. It just feels like there's something else looming.
Like you though, I continue to hold my core position. It was tough today, but I basically just sat on the sidelines and watched, mostly with my jaw on the floor.
it's kinda scary how things can change so fast within a day or two. The stock had a nice runup the whole week and suddenly bamm... 20% down on no real bad news. That chinese article doesnt raise really any serious issue that would justify such a selloff (although it's hard to understand the Google translation... Danisco, the Queen...the 3 big dairies not buying CHBT's products (what are they talking about? those guys were invited to the Investor Day and had nothing but good words for CHBT).
Rato's post said something about this stock being widely traded by Chinese who are concerned about CHBT's tax evasion with its SAIC filing... nothing really new here, Chinese should know about that tax issue better than any of us and CHBT is not the only chinese stock with that issue. So what the deal? Anyway, like most of you longs I lost 20% today on my commons and 40% on my Feb 17.5 calls. Hoefully will get some of that back pretty soon. Like you I hold a core position with the stock for the long haul (2-3 years at least) and try to trade a little with options.
Here is a copy of rato's post on CGS in case some of you has not seen it. Have a nice weekend for now!!
CHBT - That's just a translation. Of course there are weird terms. I talked to a chinese contact and he says the theme of the article is tax evasion and what CHBT's true tax liability is if the SEC earnings are true. He also said that he thinks chinese people trade this stock a lot, so I wouldn't assume that this is just hedge funds bolting or shorts adding or whatever else.
We are getting used to it ... what's 20% in a week like this!
There's not much to say. It's sad that just a few people can take down a company stock like this. 20% in a day is nothing to sneeze at. I quit trying to "trade" around this stock a long time ago and just bought a core position to hold for a few years. In my opinion, this is a $24 stock right now if shorts didn't write negative artciles and lay into it.
how isn't this one getting talked about? that's pretty incredible.
They also wound up being the leader in increased volume on the IBD front page.
To really see the bust out from resistance, check out the chart by MCT.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=58416940
here are CHBT's current IBD ratings (courtesy Natahn Greene). We are Best of Group eps!
IBD Composite: 91
EPS: 90
RS: 77
CHBT's relative strength (RS) is a bit low yet to be so highly rated as CCME, but above 90s in the Composite and EPS is good. CCME is 99, 99, and 91 right now.
PERFORMANCE WITHIN GROUP (CHBT)
CHINA-BIOTICS INC RANK WITHIN THE COSMETICS/PERSONAL CARE GROUP (35 STOCKS)
Composite Rating 91 Rank within Group: 1st
100% Best in Group EPS Rating 90 Rank within Group: 4th
91% Relative Strength Rating 77 Rank within Group: 9th
77% SMR Rating A Rank within Group: 1st
100% Best in Group Acc/Dist. Rating A Rank within Group: 1st
100% Best in Group Composite - Group LeadersCHBT CHINA-BIOTICS INC HLF HERBALIFE LTD EL ESTEE LAUDER COS CL A IFF INTL FLAVORS & FRAGRANCE RDEN ELIZABETH ARDEN INC
Institutional Holdings: Nas has started to update the list for 12/31/10. Looks like we now have 56 tutes with about 5.25MM shares = 23.7% (excellent). Calpert added another 74,901 sh to their holding.
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/holdings.asp?symbol=CHBT&symbol=CCME&selected=CHBT&FormType=Institutional
Sean Wright's SA article: CHBT: Dupont's Next Acquisition Target?
Fascinating perspective imo
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/671911-sean-wright/128042-china-biotics-dupont-s-next-acquisition-target
2 Top China for 2011- CHBT and LLEN: wow we're right on top!
http://www.investorplace.com/27894/china-biotics-chbt-l-and-l-energy-llen/
CHBT short interest 12/31/2010
Settlement Date Short Interest Percent Change Average Daily Share Volume Days to Cover
12/31/2010 3,325,342 (7.57) 335,175 9.92
Dupont acquires Danisco for 5.8 Billions:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/40994501
YMB = yahoo message board
yes, trading today on Nasdaq GS :))
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=chbt
Re. the post on YMB= Yahoo Message board, it's one of Massomiwa's replies:
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_C/threadview?m=tm&bn=75878&tid=10904&mid=11216&tof=5&rt=1&frt=2&off=1
I received a short notification from my broker (IB = Interactive Brokers) stating that CHBT is now listed on NASDAQ GS.
Here is the message:
2011/01/01
23:02:42
CHBT@NMS has announced a change in listing exchange. Effective Jan 03, 2011, the security will move from NQLX to NASDAQ GS.
Can you provide a link to this news on IB? What is IB?
What does YMB stand for? Where can I find that quote from YMB?
Thanks
A late Happy and Prosperous New Year to y'all!
Just back from an extended Xmas/New Year vacation, I found this post from YMB which best reflects my current opinion on CHBT:
Keep your eye on this link. When the next CHBT quarterly report comes out, don't be surprised to find the projections were conservative. This quarter should be very good for CHBT. Qingpu ramp up confirmation, retail sales bolstered by Chinese New Year purchases, more insight into Yingling plans, further news about online and added retail distribution news, and obviously net earnings and cash balances. Happy New Year and Gong Xi Fa Cai(May Prosperity Be With You). everyone!
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/691175-jason-nevader/122112-china-biotics-my-top-stock-pick-for-2011
CHBT moving up to Nasdaq Global Select
I got a message today from IB that CHBT will be listed on NASDAQ GS and joining fellow Gulf Resources and China MediaExpress!
I have a long position as well. Just trying to use some options to make a few extra bucks.
I'm not a chartist at all, just relying on the fundamentals here for a long term play. Great balance sheet, solid growth...I like it
BoC: I picked up some Jan 15s yesterday as the chart for CHBT looks very bullish. I'm not a TA officianado by any stretch of the imagination, but each TA site I've visited (StockTA, AmericanBulls, & Finviz) are all bullish. Finviz indicates that there's an inverse head and shoulder pattern at the moment.
Thanks for the email this morning "chrich12". Unfortunately I'm not an IHUB member so I'll have to reply here.
I still think CHBT is heading north and the single best way to play it is the Jan 2012 $10.00 calls. They're trading at just over $5.00! They're over a year out and almost in the money already!
1. China-Biotics offers many different probiotics strains and cultures as shown on the bulk business website:
http://www.growingbt.com/en/Products.asp
http://www.growingbt.com/en/Products_1.asp
2. China-Biotics has a very high CFU count as shown on their corporate website that is as good or better than the competition.
http://www.chn-biotics.com/c4428/c4453/
3. China-Biotics has a patent on Microencapsulation Technology (patent registration number ZL 01 1 09063.4), which increases the vitality rate, maintaining large quantities of active bacterium. This allows the capsules to survive deliver the probiotics to the intestines.
It is good to see the short interest down again in CHBT for the 5th bi-weekly reporting period in a row. It has decreased another 4.4% from 11/30 to 12/15, and a decrease of 19.3% since 9/30.
CHBT short interest 12/15/2010
China-Biotics, Inc. (CHBT) Short Interest
CHBT
Settlement Date Short Interest Avg Daily Share Volume Days To Cover
12/15/2010 3,597,684 279,405 12.876233
http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/shortinterests.aspx?symbol=CHBT
Thanks for the response. I'm still very much long this company, but something to think about.
Ok Ill explain a little briefly.
1. A probiotics must contain at least 10 different stains of friendly bacteria. the intestines have over 500 different types, so a standalone like bifidus, or acidofulis wont do you any good.
2. Must contain a minimum of 15-30 billion organisms per serving.
3. Must be time release capsules or pill. a probiotic does its work in the intestines. If the product is not time release, then the bacteria would be destoyed by stomach acid.
Also the product can be rendered useless depending on the processing method.
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China-Biotics, Inc. ("China-Biotics," "the Company"), a leading manufacturer of biotechnology products and supplements, engages in the research, development, marketing and distribution of probiotics dietary supplements. Through its wholly owned subsidiary, Shanghai Shining Biotechnology Co., Ltd., the Company has operations in Shanghai. Its proprietary product portfolio contains live microbial nutritional supplements under the "Shining" brand. Currently, the products are sold OTC through large distributors to pharmacies and supermarkets in Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang. China-Biotics plans to launch 300 Shining brand retail outlets in major cities in China. Currently, China-Biotics is strategically expanding its production capacity of probiotics to meet growing demand in the bulk additive market. For more information, please visit http://www.chn-biotics.com
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