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Today's totals:
bid ....1,041,838 shares
mm' paid .....$455,877.70 for an average price of .438 cents
ask ....1,384,052 shares
retail price ....$614,506.58 for an average price of .444 cents
Today the mm' sold 342,214 more shares than they bought.
--------------------------------------------------------------
(These figures are as close as I can get today guys, my dsl was down for a few minutes. There's another 14,843 shares traded and I don't know how many are bid or ask)
mm' have sold approximately 1,658,200 more shares than the have bought, since 7/12/04
Today's low price would create an opportunity for the mm' to cover short positions (if they had any). If my original hunch is right, maybe they covered some positions today. That would account for the low price and high volume of retail sales.
One other thing that is not easily seen in these numbers - there were three large blocks on the bid side today: 200,000 - 250,000 - 100,000. That's 550,000 shares -- more than half of all the sales recorded today on the bid. The size of these blocks makes me think they are from the 80M. Market Makers "NITE","BEST","SCHB","BAMM" are listed in the bid column for these sales.
On the free level II site, BAMM is listed as owning 25% of today's totals, NITE as having 19%, and SCHB 7%
When these mm' start selling those 550,000 you can bet it will be higher than the .435 cents they paid.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Here's how I see the short and long term:
1. We are done with the announcement of additional shares for sale. (the 6,472,800 shares mentioned in the 424(b)(3) filed today were already in the SB-2/A filed 7/26/04)
----------The fact that we're done with these filings should be a positive thing. Maybe we investors won't be looking over our backs anymore.(At least for anymore toxic debt announcements)
2. The mm' have covered some of their short positions. (Maybe a few more shares covered tomorrow)
----------Hopefully the mm' won't be putting anymore downward pressure on the pps.
3. I think that many of those 80M investors are hanging on for product sales, wanting to get as much money as they can. Also, the price is getting too low to sell.
----------I'm not as confident on this one, especially since some of the investors got their shares for next to nothing.
4. Anticipation of announced Incidence test sales in second week of Aug. Now only 2 weeks away.
----------Investors and traders will want to get in before too long. This is the beginning of the gradual rise in profitability we've all been waiting for.
5. 10Q Aug. 12th
----------This one is going to be flat.... No new sales figures, and a lot of money spent on R&D and travel and equipment and moving to the Rockville plant. I think because investors know all this we may not be hurt too bad.
Based on the above here's what I think will happen:
The pps begins to rise on Mon or Tue of next week.
Then once investors see the low prices disappear, they will pay more for waiting, as a result of this the mm's take advantage and push the pps up through the rest of the week.
Next phase is the poop-out, most have their shares and are not buying anymore. The pps begins to drop some, those who missed out and couldn't get shares for the price they wanted will have to pay more now, this could be their only chance before CDC. As a result pps slight rise.
Slight drop after the late buyers finish.
Then quiet until Aug 12th, the pps stays level.
Right after the 10Q the price begins to go down then levels out.
Next is a long 4th quarter wait.
Toward the end of the year the anticipation of sales in Rapid and any announcement of Incidence sales will be too much for investors to hold back. The pps will rise just on anticipation.
Other affects will be: Possible and real terrorism, election, market fluctuations, AMEX listing, 80M selling etc.
This is oonnnnnnly my opinion so don't take any of this serious.
I've been wrong more times than I want to admit.
hoping for the best...
sower
Sower
When I jumped in was at the time there was the WHO announcement and LOI just happened.. Then the street and SEC…
That was at 1.50, after that there was the auditing change which is usually not a good sign. Then some of the management left. Then Dr. George showed up which is in my opinion the only bright thing that has happened, since after his arrival the events that happened have been relatively successful and very orderly; product development, marketing (some marketing agents being sent around Africa etc.) to test the potential markets etc.
Then we had the Bangkok, a perfect venue to sell potential customers, again Dr. George had the quick after conference CC, overall positive thing. Where he also said talk to me about shares and Amex… during August CC, which again is fine…
So on one hand we have quick changeovers of financial(auditing firm,, not good) and CEO type management, then the funding appears from lenders who do not want to pay more then .40 per share. What the MM;s agenda is, is anyone’s guess.
So here we are again, products, thanks to Dr. George are believable and seem to be very good, and getting better. The SEC has given it a pass, at this time, as they say, so that’s better then what we had just few months ago. Also the CDC is a positive connection/history with Dr. George.
On the other hand we have 160M total shares(i belive) and I guess 80M ready to be unloaded(guess). That’s a lot of shares to get from a company with no sales as of yet and obviously burning cash for development.
Therefore, I really don’t know what will happen next, I don’t know when the sales may happen and what the real demand/profit is out there for these services. At some other time they mentioned a “big” interest in CDC incident test, which maybe on sale sooner then other products.
Guess after my tirade , I wonder at the end of the day,what the market demand will be for these products. Will they absorb 80M shares...Its not a question it’s an ongoing concern, as they say,…
But guess one thing is for sure, hopefully someone will call onto that CC coming up and thank Dr. George for pulling this off, someone needs to say thanks to that guy. Be it this thing takes of or not , that was a lot of negative current to swim against.
Long… and all that…
Chucker...
Thanks for the information on JP.
I'll have to post a note to him, on the NEOM boad.
sower
Today's totals:
bid....213,683 shares
mm' paid.......$104,738.33 average price /share =.49 cents
ask....168,078 shares
retail price.......$83,138.19 average price /share =.495 cents
Today the mm' bought 45,605 more shares than they sold.
-----------------------------------------
mm' have sold 1,315,986 more shares than they have purchased since 7/12/04, two days after the announcement of an additional 80M shares for sale.
We still haven't seen much selling from the 80M. Really there is no way to know if any of the share sold since the filing are from those stock holders. Any large block is suspect, in my mind.
A total of 6,267,071 since 7/12/04.
The highest prints on the bid today were 2 @ 15,000 shares each.
These 80M stockholders "had" and maybe "have" a close contact with Calypte and as such can see the future is up.
The majority of them may be long.
If that is true, maybe in the short term the 80M will not have an adverse affect on the pps.
It may only exist as an immediate threat in the minds of the rest of us.
Just my opinion...
sower
Sower. J Petronic can usually be found on the NEOM and the NNOS boards. See my post on this board numbers 93 and 95. Smartbiz95 started this board but he never posted again. I have seen that handle on other boards, again maybe on NEOM and NNOS. CYPT had a good bounce yesterday and let's hope it continues.
Chuckerfmfla
flavius
You asked a good question...
Who else is on this board?
I just recently found out about InvestorsHub CYPT.
Do you know if JPetroInc is still an assistant here?
I know that O-B-F is on the RB board. I wonder if he knows about this place? Is there anyway you could tell him without letting the others know?
If it wasn't for you I'd be talking to myself. You ask questions that I haven't thought of. It's good to have people to bounce things off of, especially if they have a stake in this.
sower
flavius...
I don't think the company can manipulate the stock like we saw today. If they could they would have made it rise much higher than this, especially when they are trying to get on the AMEX.
There's a section in the SB-2 on offering price:
"Determination of Offering Price
This prospectus may be used from time to time by the selling shareholders who offer the common stock in transactions (which may include block transactions)at prevailing market prices at the time of sale, at prices related to the prevailing market prices, or at other negotiated prices. The selling shareholders will act independently in determining the offering price of each sale."
I don't know if that helps answer your question or not. I may have to talk to Tim to find out more details.
They always make these forms so complicated with this lawyer "talk". I wish they would just come out and say what they mean.
sower
The Shares,
Stupid question I'm sure.
With th 80M shares, is the company trying to make money for the
registered shares by third party investors, by lenders selling the shares as soon as they get in high .5 or .7s vs trying to increase the share value for this 3rd party investors by making sure they have market and products to sell...
Thats something that I dont have resolved yet... Guess we'll know on the 12th...
thanks for level II's
not sure how many people are on here..
Peace
Today's totals:
bid....1,163,317 shares
mm' paid.......$589,505.76 average price /share =.507 cents
ask....1,457,600 shares
retail price.......$747,072.84 average price /share =.513 cents
Today the mm' bought 294,283 more shares than they sold.
--------------------------------------------------------------
mm' have sold more that 6M shares since 7/12/04 two days after the 424(b)(3) filing. (includes today's figures)
The largest print for bid...200,000 shares, someone received .465 cents = $93,000.00 (if he had waited for the close he would have made $105,000, an extra $12,000 dollars. I bet he's sick!)
The largest print for ask... 90,000 shares, someone paid .47 cents = $42,300.00 (this is the eleventh trade of the morning. I think this started the ball rolling. After this trade, people began to buy. My guess is, he's probably very happy he bought when he did. His shares are worth an extra $4,950.00)
IMO.. today's move was a result of investors waiting to get in again. They were watching for a price drop before the next meeting on Aug. 12th. This 90,000 shares started things rolling, more people began to buy, the mm's took advantage of the increased demand to make a little more profit.
Again...just my opinion
Wow! what a day...
sower
Today's totals:
bid....172,416 shares
mm' paid.......$78,752.51 average price /share =.457 cents
ask....156,228 shares
retail price.......$72,411.83 average price /share =.464 cents
mm' bought 16,185 more shares than they sold.
Interesting...the mm' bought more shares than they sold and the price went up from Friday' totals.
--------------------------------------------------------------
Today' volumn is the lowest since the 424(b)(3) came out.
It only took .02 tenths of a percent of the outstanding shares to move the stock up 1.7 percent from Fridays close.
sower
Hey,
Thanks for the free LII,
Good point on th MM's, thats a whole different game.
Markets are being bad these days...
Its only going to get more volatile by Novemeber,
also, the 10k coming up will show probably bad financing probably very little if any revenu no profit, and probably high expenses for plants and marketing etc...
So that might depress the stock down further, especially since Dr George may not be able to tweek the % of accuracy up by the time of the 10k...
But, what could be good is a list of verifiable signed project deliveries in Africa Asia, well...
Peace
Today's totals:
bid....389050 shares
mm' paid.......$175,050.50 average price /share =.449 cents
ask....511,665 shares
retail price.......$234,818.70 average price /share =.459 cents
mm' sold 122,615 more shares than they bought.
--------------------------------------------------------------
Approximate totals from Monday 7/12/04 two days after the 424(b)(3) filing. (includes today's figures)
bid....4,717,658 shares
mm' paid......$2,375,455.09
ask....5,801,151 shares
retail price.......$3,005,002.02
mm' sold 1,083,493 more shares than they bought.
They're using up inventory or they are borrowing the shares. (if borrowing, they will have to pay them back)
My question is...
At what price will they pay them back, higher, equal or lower price than they sold em?
If they can manipulate the stock price, (I believe they can manipulate pricing, to some degree) the only direction that is profitable for them is down.
sower
If you want to use a free version of Level II (it's not streaming) go to:
www. otcbbpulse.com/
Just type in the symbol..
sower
LEVEL II
well yeah i was wondering about that, I dont have access to that yet... not making enough loot to justify..
anways, seems there arent many people here.
so there is an 10k coming up in august,
Dr. George did not want to talk about Amex and Registered shares...
Thats could be good or bad...
peace
Today's totals:
bid....347,801 shares
mm paid.......$160,126.71 average price /share =.46 cents
ask....447,730 shares
retail price...$209,430.35 average price /share =.468 cents
mm's sold 99,929 more shares than they bought.
--------------------------------------------------------------
Approximate totals from Monday 7/12/04 two days after the 424(b)(3) filing. (includes today's figures)
bid....4,328,608 shares
mm paid......$2,200,404.59
ask....5,289,486 shares
retail price...$2,770,183.32
mm's sold 960,878 more share than they bought.
they are using up inventory or they are borrowing the shares.
flavius22
How do I come up with these figures? The only way I know.....
Using Excel and hand typing data from a level II screen with time & sales
sower
CC Rapids
so thats what we all wanted to hear pretty much..
now last r/s and LOI's had this at ~ 1.8-2
now we have 80M to unload with products and sales of something
4th and 1st qtr with tweeked 4 product types
just seems to easy, I mean wow good product line,virtually unlimited customer base, possible secure revenue sources available through governments etc..
whats the down side? 80M shares and r/s to get to AMEX if thats the goal... cometition ...
i donno just rambling, by the way where do you get the shares traded sold or bought information...
good luck
oy
We have a lot of difficult things behind us...
Calypte was about to close the doors - Marr sees the potential and makes a huge investment.
Ourstreet.com - you can fool me once but not twice.
A highly respected very capable managment / scientific team at the helm.
"Going Concern" - no longer in the way of AMEX.
SEC informal investigation - cleared by SEC
Alameda office closed - savings of $500,000.00 to 1M per year.
Toxic debt - partially paid (i know, we are the one's who are paying for this along with Marr and all the other stockholders, but once those lose hands finally let go, it will be behind us)
Research and development of rapid - product is developed and perfected for sales.
Manufacturing facility in Thailand
Manufacturing partnership with one of China's leading drug makers (they also know how to get government approval from the SDA)
I wish I could remember more.
Now we just need sales to make all this work pay off.
You can't get a crop unless the soil is prepared and the seed is planted.
sower
Thanks for the info.
Tommorrow I think it will be all good. Dr. George does well.
Same to you good luck..
flavius
The way I understand it, the CDC test does not require FDA approval.
They are saying "possible" 3rd. qtr. sales for CDC.
Dr. George said in the last CC that the world market is 10 times bigger than the U.S.A. and they can get approval to sell the rapid much sooner than here in the Sates. That is why they are directing all their energy toward International sales.
They are saying "possible" 4th qtr. international sales of rapid.
The OTC rapid tests probably won't be approved by the FDA until 2006. (they still have to apply)
We will get more info tomorrow...
all the best
sower
Sales,? And CC tommorrow
In AMERICA? Is that latin America?
They cant sell rapid oral fluid and urine here cause no application? Unless the blood one carries over?
They could sell CDC incidents does that have to be FDA approved?
Personally id want them to sell even their office furniture this .435 is pathethic, what will happen when the 80M shares get unloaded? They will do an R/S?
Anyways news tommorrow, hope its not a shameless pump toward those 80M.
after-hours PR: Conference call tomorrow. . .
(PR NEWSWIRE) Calypte Biomedical To Host Conference Call
Calypte Biomedical To Host Conference Call
CEO to Discuss The International AIDS Conference and
Recent Clinical Data Disclosed at Event
Conference Call Scheduled for Tomorrow, Thursday, July 22, 2004
at 11:00AM EDT. Dial-In Number is 1-800-915-4836. Simultaneous Webcast With
Moderator Activated Slide Presentation at
http://www.shareholder.com/calypte/medialist.cfm
Sorry for being negative just don’t want to get obliterated…
Peace
flavius22...
Just talked to Tim Clemensen. I wanted to find out about the price of the test kits. He said the pricing has not been determined yet for each country but the range is anywhere from $1.00 to $5.00, depending on the location. He said in Africa the kit can't be any higher than $2.00. In America the kit might be priced around $5.00 for the OTC deluxe package.
Profits for each kit could range from 50% to 80% (depends on location of sales)
Possible CDC sales end of 3rd qtr.
Possible intrenational sales of rapid end of 4th qtr.
He has high regard for Dr. George.
best wishes
sower
Correction 300M kits at .50 not .05
sower
flavius22...
Orasure has a valuation of .919341 /share based on 03 sales of 40.5M.
Calypte would have to have sales of 150M per year to have the same valuation.
You would have to sell roughly 300M kits at .05 ea. to accomplish that.
sower
Sower..
No actually that is great info to have ...
My concer is that there is total of 160M shares, with these 80M that were registered.
As you say dampen good news... but also market and history of the stock dampend good news.
The other thing, how many $ 0.50 kits do they have to sell, to cover all the costs for manufacturing /licencing etc. to cover up this fairly large share amount...
The key will be the sales. Now last cc they had people going to africa, thailand is obviously big... India as well.
Hopefully there will be large interest in it, we are going to hear about the reception at the Bangkok, all the major suppliers buyers were there im sure...
The interest in their product there should be a decent indicator of overall direction of sales for their products...
The 4th quorter should be interesting...
Sorry for misspelling...
flavius22...
Looking at the totals for the last 7 days, I don't think you could say we've had a mass exodus from this stock. There have only been 3.5 m shares sold in that time frame. What is really strange is that five out of seven days there were more buyers than sellers.
The only conclusion I can think of is that the 80 m shares have dampend the good news and even though they don't seem to be selling very many of those shares, no one wants to start buying until they're sold or product sales begin.
Before the 424(b)(3) filing, mms were jumping into the bid to store up for future profits. Now they're not wanting to store up shares, they're matching up shares on the bid and ask making 1 or 2 cents per share. That way they don't hold shares at a loss.
All this is my opinion...
for what it's worth
sower
Hey, w totals...
Are they unloading those 80M shares.. is that what is kicking the price down...
Today's totals:
bid....279,455 shares
mm paid.......$134,788.53 average price /share =.482 cents
ask....392,980 shares
retail price...$191,757.01 average price /share =.488 cents
mm's sold 113,525 more shares than they bought.
Todays apprximate profit for mm's $56,966.48
net result on pps = down .02 cents
--------------------------------------------------------------
Approximate totals from Monday 7/12/04 two days after the 424(b)(3) filing. (includes today's figures)
bid....3,498,835 shares
mm paid......$1,816,831.15 average price /share =.519 cents
ask....4,458,792 shares
retail price...$2,381,002.64 average price /share =.534 cents
mm's sold 959,957 more share than they bought.
Approximate profit for mm's to date. $564,171.49
net result on pps = down .14 cents
sower
flavius22...I hope so...and soon. I would like to see all the bashers on the RB board disapear when sales begin. Although, I'm not sure they will. Seems like their always around the stocks I own.
goin for the double/triple
sower
thanks
so next the sales?
Today's totals:
bid...753620 shares $382,709.87
ask...556822 shares $288,259.45
Approximate Totals from Monday 7/12/04 two days after the 424(b)(3) filing.
bid...3,216,380 shares
cost to mm's............ $1,646,042.32
ask...4,065,812
cost to retail investors $2,189,245.63
sower
... well ...
no sales no stock move, that 74-84M shares are keeping things down..
probably long ways to go if everything is perfect...
I guess we wait... for sales end of 2004,
peace
Anyone who sells this stock after a double or a triple from here is, in my opinion, foolish. If sales begin in the 4th quarter as indicated, I think we should be approaching $1,50 by the enad of the second calendar quarter, 2005. Then with the dollars coming in from sales the company can then look at
" the other events"
Chuckerc
Chuckerc. How this works out will be interesting. The company sold all those shares way back when the risk was very high and the investment was relatively low. Now the investors have a nice profit. Will they sell right away and take their money or will they stay in because the company is on the verge of selling rapid products?
So far the volume for selling has been low when you consider there are over 70 mil listed in the latest filing.
I don't like this toxic debt situation but if CYPT sales begin soon maybe that 70 mil. will be absorbed over a longer period of time. If that happens the pps may clime at a slower rate.
One thing I'm certain of, when the profits start showing up from the CDC test along with the rapid, investors will be getting in again. That's what we all want to see.
All the best.
sower
Sower. Actually I am watching the pps drop and will try to add more NOT sell. I am in this one for the long run and only have 40,000 shares now.
Good luck to all.
Chuckerc
Well my last post, for today..
You have written 2 posts today and have 1 posts remaining.
Compose your reply here
Thats actually a good question. Overall I am suprised the Chicoms would want to save people... since they have Billion of them...
At any rate. No i dont know what the requirment is. Except they have no way to penetrated their rural decrepid areas to set up mobil labs etc...
So same as any other rural area 99.6% or oral 99.8% I would think would be adequate... plus, DR George may tweek those number higher...
My concers are dilution, the toxic funding alleged, and no product per say for sale yet...
hopefully it will all come together soon...
peace
flavius22...
Do you know what percent of accuracy the Chinese Govt. requires before product can be sold there?
sower
Validation...
They have agents going through Africa. Where the rapid testing demand was requested from various previous CC.
This is where the infemous LOI happend. But with DR. George and
30 yr CDC experience. I really think if this is going to succede it will be because of him and other people.
At any rate, yes they would be crazy no to ride the wave of the AIDS and other media BLITZ on aids problem...
So yes, the product I belive is being crancked out as we speak.
Dr George hoped to have some kind of sale by 4th qtr 2004.
They have to have product to sell, to have 4th Qtr sales...
Anywho...
Oy
Quote from Dr. George.."Even though we have other validation studies either in progress or pending and we continue to improve these assays, this study validates our decision to begin manufacturing and commercialization of these assays for the international market."
IMO when he said "Even though" he means we are not going to wait for these studies to be complete to begin the manufacturing and commercialization, we are moving ahead now.
comments from anybody?
sower
Well, 80M shares registered.
out of total of 140M something like that
Possibly ready to roll out product of some kind??
The 0.40 registered st/warrants etc, are going to be snapped up by whom?
Institutions?
Retail Investors?
After the $ 1.60 LOI's how many of us retail goofs are going to bite...
The van by the river is mortgaged. I'm sure everyone knows, the sales is the only thing that will move this in a positive way...
oy
IMO, the news is very good, but, the price is now where we started at the begining of the day @50 cents. I think people are numb from all the promises made. The only thing that will help is sales....
sower
Chuckerc... I called Tim on Monday. He said the shareholders in the Thursday SEC filings were responsible for the drop in price. I decided to check the sales starting on Monday. So far to date there have only been a little over 1.6 mil sold. It's a small amount when you consider there are over 70 mil. ready to sell. My thought is that they are waiting for pps to rise on news, then sell. We may be seeing this sort of thing for a while.
sower
Not from France. Born in the U.S.A. of French -Canadian parents. I would love to know who is hitting this stock so hard to drive the pps down. Someone using the the Private Placement as a means to shake the trees????
Chuckerc
Hey Chuckerfmfla, Bastille Day is a French Holiday, are you from France?
chuckerfmfla... IMO Friday's drop was a result of the SEC 424B3. A few of the traders on Investors Hub were in the stock just prior to the report coming out. One of the traders named "Omnitrader" uses realtime fillings for SEC reports so the minute the report came out... I think he and the rest bailed at that point. I'm not sure how many shares they were buying but there was a lot of shares traded on Friday. I don't know enough about the recent filings to be able to tell what exactly is happening, but some dilution in the increased number of shares comes to mind.
Thanks for responding to my message.
I've been with CYPT since around .13 cents, went through the thing with ourstreet sold all my shares. I've been buying the stock since then and now I'm looking forward to good things.
sower
Sower. Looks like no replys. I am out of town and hate typing on this laptop. Will be back on July 14th
( bastile Day ) I would love to know why we dropped 5.5 cents on Friday.
Chuckerc
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