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AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAH.......... Cmcl BROKE thru your Triple Top........... Tell us another one.......
Hi Sherm I'm right here. I have been a CMCL shareholder longer than you have. There was never any doubt that CMCL was & continues to be a massively undervalued gold stock because of the severe Zimbabwe political & economic risks that have caused gold stock investors to avoid CMCL like the plague. Curtis has finally acknowledged, which all CMCL shareholders already knew but was not reflected in the share price, that CMCL is very profitable gold company especially with a gold price over $1450/oz. Even with this earnings announcement by Curtis, CMCL remains very undervalued due to the Zimbabwe political & economic risk. As I have posted many times, to overcome the Zimbabwe political & economic risk & entice new gold investors to buy CMCL, Curtis should immediately significantly raise the dividend, especially now that it is very affordable & would raise the share price quickly. There are many gold stock investors who would love to buy a gold stock where they could receive a way above market dividend & have the upside price appreciation of gold. CMCL is that stock. Raise the dividend now while the terrific earnings news is attracting much higher volume & interest today.
Marc.......... We broke thru the RESISTANCE......... A increase in the Dividend, and a great increase in Stock Price............
http://schrts.co/xAJAYvSB
Marc.......... Where are you???????????
Marc......... Have you sold out yet??????????????
cmcl incred its estimate for 2019 from 1.17 to 1.50-1.75 per share. a couple weeks ago they increased the div.
sherman106,
RE:
Caledonia Mining Corporation CALVF -
Note ex.gratia; E.g., past history;
from Tuesday, 04/10/12 -
sherman106 please, if you are concerned about the past
history; feel free to email Mark Learmonth etc.
TIA
God Bless
NYBOB.......... I would Email Mark Learmonth and get the current details of Nama for your information. It was to be a "HUGE" Cobalt play that never developed. Also, there was Copper in the picture. At the time, Cobalt shot up to around $52.00 and fell back to earth at $10.00 or so, back around 2011/2012....
Check with him for the details. Maybe mentioned to him to bring back a published Annual Report. Calvf stopped publishing it around 2008, or so...................
God Bless................
Bw Business News: Mark Learmonth, CFO & Director of Caledonia Mining -
Jan 3, 2020
sherman106 thank you;
RE"
NY Bob......... Part of this article is NOT up to date. Nama has been
disposed of around 2012.... No longer in the grasp of Cmcl. Management got
rid of it to concentrate on Blanket.
shermaan106, I have not seen that CAL sold it?
Mining companies who do a lot of work on properties are often instead
of cash for ex. taxes and spending money for work etc. for mining
properties exploration can keep them in good standing for often 10yrs or
even longer, it become lease hold and ownership etc.
I do not know current status today of NAMA and if CAL still have
ownership of the mining properties?
God Bless
NY Bob......... Part of this article is NOT up to date. Nama has been disposed of around 2012.... No longer in the grasp of Cmcl. Management got rid of it to concentrate on Blanket.
marcie boy........ You forget that I have a chunk of CMCL at the .03 to .06 levels........ The dividend totals on this investment is a nice bit of change, and it comes every QUARTER........... So between the Appreciation of Stock and the Dividend, there is a good hunk of Profits, my boy.......... It pays to do your DD and stick with it.......... So if Cmcl is not working out for you, it would be smart to SELL and find another Diamond in the Rough............
Good old sherm. Satisfied with the minuscule dividend increase when a much higher dividend, which is in the best interest of all CMCL shareholders, is easily affordable, & would offset the severe Zimbabwe economic & political risk that inhibits gold stock investors from buying CMCL? Happy that 2020 production is stagnant?
Good Ole Marc........ Would be good for you to haunt another Board......... Sell out and relieve your frustrations
Canadian firm purchases 15% stake in Zimbabwe’s Blanket gold mine
21st January 2020 -
Canadian firm purchases 15% stake in Zimbabwe’s Blanket gold mine
Canadian exploration and development firm, Caledonia Mining has
completed the purchase of Fremiro Investments’ 15% shareholding in the
Blanket gold mine in Zimbabwe.
In November 2018, Caledonia Mining initially signed a binding agreement
to purchase a 15% stake in the gold mine, which came after the two
parties signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) for the acquisition
of the stake for US$16.66m in August 2019.
The company reached the initial deal to increase its stake after the
Zimbabwe government amended the Zimbabwean Indigenisation and Economic
Empowerment Act in March 2018.
With the completion of the deal, Caledonia Mining will now have a 64%
interest in the Blanket Mine while Fremiro will own 6.3% of
Caledonia’s issued share capital.
Caledonia issued 727,266 of its new shares at an issue price of $7.15 a
share.
Caledonia Mining Chief Executive Officer, Steve Curtis said, “I am
pleased to report that the company has concluded its transaction with
Fremiro to increase Caledonia’s shareholding in Blanket to 64%.
“I would like to thank Fremiro for its support as a shareholder in
Blanket during the last seven years and am confident that Fremiro, now
as a significant shareholder in the company, will continue to be
supportive of Caledonia’s business going forward.”
In October 2019, Caledonia Mining installed and commissioned an oxygen
plant at the Blanket gold mine.
The company reported a resource upgrade at the mine in September 2018.
According to the update, the total measured and indicated gold ounces at
the mine rose 13% from 714,000oz in August 2017 to 805,000oz as of
July 2018.
The Blanket gold mine produced 54,512oz of gold in 2018.
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/caledonia_mining/news/rns_widget/story/x439eow
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=153266519
http://www.caledoniamining.com
Zimbabwe repealed it's onerous digitization law that required CMCL to divest 51% ownership of Blanket. Since the law has been repealed, why doesn't CMCL have returned to it ALL 51% of the ownership it was forced to divest under a repealed law?
Looks like another triple top has formed. The minuscule increase in the dividend was a slap in the face to all CMCL shareholders by CMCL management A much higher dividend, certainly affordable at $1450 to $1550 gold, is needed to increase the share price & overcome the Zimbabwe economic & political risk that inhibits many gold stock investors from buying CMCL. In addition, the gold production for 2020 was very disappointing.
Right at the point of resistance here at $8.49/$8.50.......... Need some Volume to bang thru this area......
http://schrts.co/xAJAYvSB
Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc Record quarterly gold production at Blanket Mine
St Helier, January 13, 2020 -
Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc ("Caledonia" or the "Company") announces record quarterly gold production from the Blanket Mine ("Blanket") in Zimbabwe for the quarter ended December 31, 2019 ("Q4 2019" or the "Quarter").
Approximately 16,876 ounces of gold were produced during the Quarter, exceeding the previous production record of 16,425 ounces set in the final quarter of 2017. Production in the Quarter was 24 per cent higher than the previous quarter and 13 per cent higher than the corresponding final quarter of 2018.
Total gold production during 2019 was approximately 55,182 ounces, ahead of revised production guidance of 50,000 - 53,000 ounces.
Caledonia advises that gold production for 2020 is expected to be between 53,000 and 56,000 ounces1.
All production numbers are expressed on a 100 per cent basis and are based on mine production data and are therefore subject to adjustment following final assay at the refiners.
Commenting on the announcement, Steve Curtis, Chief Executive Officer, said:
"I am delighted to report a production record at Blanket of 16,867 ounces in the fourth quarter. An improvement in the electricity supply and vigilant focus on grade control and production tonnage have resulted in an excellent production result for the final quarter of which our entire operational staff can be justifiably proud.
"The impressive operational turnaround was achieved without any compromises on safety. This is a commendable achievement given the distractions posed by the challenging conditions experienced by our workers due to the economic environment in Zimbabwe. I join with my fellow directors in expressing our gratitude and congratulations to all Blanket staff on the delivery of safe, profitable gold production.
"I am also pleased to see that we have not lost this momentum as we start 2020 with the mine continuing to perform very well into the new year. With the improved operational performance and the current buoyant gold prices leading to healthy operating margins we expect Caledonia to continue its track record of strong cash generation.
"I expect 2020 to be a landmark year for our business: we look forward to commissioning the Central Shaft later in 2020 which we anticipate will then deliver increased operating cash flows and reduced capital expenditure will follow. In early January 2020 we announced a 9.1 per cent increase in Caledonia's quarterly dividend; the anticipated improvement in free cash flow is expected to enable the Board to review future dividend distributions as appropriate."
Caledonia's Dividend Policy
Caledonia's strategy to maximise shareholder value includes a quarterly dividend policy which the Board of Directors adopted in 2014. Since that time, the Company has paid 24 successive quarterly dividends without interruption and, on 3 January 2020, announced an increase of the quarterly dividend by 9.1% from 6.875c per share to 7.5c per share. The Board will consider future increases in the dividend as appropriate in line with its prudent approach to risk management.
About Caledonia
Caledonia's primary asset is a 49% interest in an operating gold mine in Zimbabwe ("Blanket Mine").
In November 2018, Caledonia announced that it had signed a legally binding sale agreement to increase its holding in Blanket Mine to 64%, subject to receipt of, amongst other things, regulatory approvals.
Caledonia's shares are listed on the NYSE American (symbol: CMCL) and on the Toronto Stock Exchange (symbol: CAL) and depositary interests representing the shares are traded on London's AIM (symbol: CMCL).
As at September 30, 2019, Caledonia had cash of approximately US$8.0million.
Blanket Mine plans to increase production from 55,182 ounces of gold in 2019 to approximately 75,000 ounces in 2021 and approximately 80,000 ounces in 2022;
Blanket Mine's target production for 2020 is between 53,000 and 56,000 ounces[1].
Caledonia expects to publish its results for the year to December 31, 2019 on or around March 23, 2020.
For further information please contact:
Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc
Mark Learmonth
Maurice Mason
Tel: +44 1534 679 802
Tel: +44 759 078 1139
WH Ireland
Adrian Hadden/James Sinclair-Ford
Tel: +44 20 7220 1751
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/caledonia_mining/news/rns_widget/story/xqj1d7w
Blytheweigh
Tim Blythe/Camilla Horsfall/Megan Ray
Tel: +44 207 138 3204
Caledonia Mining lifts dividend as gold mine delivers improved financial performance
Better grades, higher output and elevated gold prices are all factors
in Caledonia's improved financial performance.
Caledonia Mining Corporation - Caledonia Mining lifts dividend as gold mine delivers improved financial performance
Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc (LON:CMCL) has announced it is
increasing its dividend thanks to an improved financial performance,
driven by higher production and better gold prices.
The quarterly dividend increases by 9.1% to 6.875 cents per share.
At the same time, the AIM-quoted miner noted that it expects to
commission the Central Shaft at the underground Blanket mine
in Zimbabwe during the fourth quarter, and, it will work towards a
production target of 80,000 ounces of gold per year by 2022.
Chief executive Steve Curtis told investors that the board will continue
to review future dividends as appropriate, as it seeks to strike a
balance between shareholder returns, the pursuit of new growth
opportunities and prudent financial management.
READ: Caledonia Mining production rises as grades pick up
“As we reported in mid-November 2019 when we published the results for
the third quarter of 2019, our financial performance has improved due
to increased production and the continued higher gold price,”
Curtis said in a statement.
“This improvement has continued through the final quarter of 2019.”
"As we approach the end of the five-year investment programme at
Blanket Mine, we anticipate the rate of capital expenditure will begin
to reduce from the middle of 2020, which gives us greater flexibility
to consider deploying some of our cash reserves on an increased
dividend.”
Curtis added: “We expect the Central Shaft to be commissioned
in the fourth quarter of 2020; thereafter we look forward
to further increases in operating cash flow as production
increases to the target rate of 80,000 ounces of gold per annum
from 2022, as capital expenditure falls further and we begin
to realise the operational efficiencies arising from the new shaft.”
Quick facts: Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc
Price: 636 GBX
AIM:CMCL
In GOD We Trust -
https://www.kitco.com/images/live/silver.gif?0.8344882022363285
http://www.kitconet.com/images/live/au0001wb.gif
Gold & Silver is the only REAL Legal Tender -
by The Founding Fathers for your -
Rights, Liberty and Freedom -
http://www.biblebelievers.org.au/monie.htm
God Bless America
Ps.
opinion appreciated
TIA
Happy New Year2020
Caledonia INCREASES DIVIDEND............................ WHAT A GIFT..............
http://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/01/03/1965895/0/en/Caledonia-declares-an-increased-quarterly-dividend.html
Merry Christmas New York Bob........ Oceans of Good Fortune and Good Health in 2020........ I think Cmcl will brighten our Investment picture with the Expansion of Blanket, and who knows what possible new acquisition that may be on the horizon........ The Best to YOU..........
sherman106 Welcome to Caledonia CMCL is a Bargain; Gold Stocks Remain Cheap
sherman106......... Thank you for the important news report on Cmcl..... We certainly have a Cmcl Tiger by the tail........... A future of GROWTH, Profits, Dividends, and Possible Acquisitions......... And NY Bob, NO DEBT............... Any way you look at it with 10 million plus shares outstanding, we are in for a ride......
Thank you for keep the Board up to date.
Gold Stocks Remain Cheap -
Adam Hamilton
December 20, 2019
1
The gold miners’ stocks have suffered a lackluster few months. That’s a disheartening contrast to their powerful summer upleg on gold’s bull-market breakout. While this healthy gold-stock correction likely isn’t over yet, the gold miners remain very undervalued relative to the metal they produce. That means they still have massive upside left in this secular gold bull. Sentiment just needs rebalancing before its next upleg.
In recent months I’ve written a lot about gold’s correction, which is naturally driving a parallel one in the gold miners’ stocks. I’ve explained why speculators’ positioning in gold futures, gold’s dominant primary short-term driver, remains bearish with potential selling vastly outweighing likely buying. I’ve shown how shallow and short gold’s recent correction is compared to bull-market precedent, implying it isn’t mature yet.
This hasn’t changed, gold’s correction is alive and well. Based on their gold-bull-to-date trading ranges, the latest weekly read on specs’ gold futures revealed they have room to buy 59.4k contracts. But that is dwarfed by 6.3x with their potential selling at 372.3k! And at worst so far, gold has only retreated 6.4% in 2.8 months. This secular bull’s prior two corrections following uplegs averaged 15.5% selloffs over 6.0 months.
If gold continues grinding lower as specs’ collective bets are normalized, it will drag down the gold stocks with it. The major gold miners tend to leverage gold’s material moves by 2x to 3x. That is evident in their leading benchmark GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF. Discussing this gold stock correction ( https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/gold-correction-not-over ) in last week’s essay, I pointed out GDX has only lost 15.4% over 1.3 months at worst. That’s 2.4x downside leverage.
But this gold-stock bull’s prior couple corrections directly driven by gold’s averaged 35.4% GDX losses in 11.8 months. That made for 2.3x downside leverage to gold. If gold’s correction isn’t over yet, neither is the gold stocks’. That being understood, speculators and investors need to look past this valley and start preparing for the next ascent. Uplegs and corrections meander in perpetually-alternating cycles in markets.
The major corrections inevitably following major bull-market uplegs are mostly driven by sentiment. The excessive greed generated late in bull uplegs has to be bled away before the next upleg can follow. The only way to kill major-high exuberance is through subsequent selloffs, which ultimately spawn fear. But the broader bull markets containing those individual uplegs and corrections are fueled by fundamentals.
That’s how much profits gold miners are earning compared to their prevailing stock prices. And they are looking fantastic. In mid-November as the latest earnings season ended, I dug into the GDX gold miners’ Q3’19 results. These fundamentals are the strongest they’ve been in years, thanks to gold’s bull-market breakout rally this past summer. Q3’s average gold price of $1474 soared a colossal 21.7% year-over-year!
That drove explosive profits growth unparalleled in all the stock markets. Based on the average all-in sustaining costs of the GDX miners, their earnings catapulted an astounding 68.9% higher YoY! That was awesome 3.2x upside leverage to gold’s gains. And that stupendous earnings growth is likely to persist. With gold’s correction tarrying, Q4’s average gold price so far at $1481 is even a bit better than Q3’s.
I’ve done deep bottom-up analysis on many individual gold miners every quarter for years, which is very data-intensive both to do and explain. That proves the strong relationship between gold-mining profits and prevailing gold prices. Gold stocks are essentially leveraged plays on gold. Thankfully there’s a simple proxy to visualize gold stocks’ valuations relative to gold, the ratio between stock prices and gold’s own price.
The gold stocks as a sector can be measured by GDX. Its daily closes can then be divided by those of the world’s dominant gold ETF, the GLD SPDR Gold shares. The result is the GDX/GLD Ratio, or GGR for short. Charting it over time shows whether gold stocks are gaining or losing ground relative to gold, and more importantly whether they are richly-valued or undervalued compared to the metal they bring to market.
The latter is true today, gold stocks remain very cheap relative to gold. Again that doesn’t mean that their healthy and necessary correction is over. But it does greatly boost the odds the coming gold-stock uplegs in this secular gold bull are going to be outsized. The gold stocks have to power far higher to reasonably reflect these higher prevailing gold prices. The biggest gains of their bull market are almost certainly yet to come.
At best in this entire bull so far, GDX had blasted 151.2% higher by early August 2016. That’s actually still tiny by gold-stock-bull standards! This sector’s last secular bull ran for 10.8 years from November 2000 to September 2011, straddling the birth of GDX. The older benchmark HUI NYSE Arca Gold BUGS index skyrocketed 1664.4% higher over that span! Gold stocks were that decade’s top-performing stock sector.
Like most other indicators, the GGR is still bearish over the near-term. It joins the chorus suggesting this gold-stock correction isn’t finished yet. This first chart superimposes the GGR in blue with its technicals over GDX itself in red during this gold-stock bull. The GGR hasn’t yet retreated low enough to signal a likely bottoming in gold stocks. This key gold-stock valuation metric remains high for a gold-stock correction.
The GGR’s primary value over the short-term is highlighting trends in gold-stock performance versus the metal they mine. When this ratio is rising, the gold stocks are outperforming gold. That usually happens during gold uplegs, when the major gold stocks of GDX again amplify gold’s gains by 2x to 3x. All 3 of this gold-stock bull’s major uplegs saw big GGR gains. Gold stocks were advancing much faster than gold.
But gold stocks’ leverage to gold is a double-edged sword, working equally as well on the downside when gold corrects. So the GGR has retreated during this gold bull’s prior couple corrections, showing the gold stocks as measured by GDX were falling faster than gold as measured by GLD. So in other words, gold outperforms its miners’ stocks during corrections by not selling off as much. The GGR nicely quantifies this.
Heading into this gold-stock bull’s initial correction in mostly the second half of 2016, the GGR peaked at 0.244x. A share of GDX was worth almost a quarter of a GLD share. By the time the dust settled, GDX had plummeted 39.4% compared to gold’s milder 17.3% correction! That crushed the GGR back down to 0.176x. This key fundamental indicator plunged by 27.9% or 0.068x absolutely in that utterly brutal selloff.
This gold-stock bull’s second correction began in early 2017, but dragged on way into summer 2018. It hammered GDX 31.1% lower, again much worse than gold’s own 13.6% correction that drove those gold-stock losses. The GGR peaked at 0.216x in the preceding upleg, before plunging to 0.155x by that next correction bottoming. That’s a 28.1% or 0.061x gold-stock-correction GGR retreat, similar to the earlier correction.
So this bull’s previous corrections averaged tight 28.0% or 0.065x GGR slumps. Contrast that to the gold stocks’ current correction. The latest GGR peak hit 0.211x in early September, and at worst so far merely fell back to 0.188x in mid-October. That makes for only an 11.1% or 0.023x GGR retreat at most. Thus odds are the gold miners’ stocks haven’t fallen far enough yet relative to gold to rebalance their sentiment!
Past gold-stock corrections saw the miners’ stocks drop far enough compared to gold to force the GGR under both its 200-day moving average and gold-bull average. Neither has happened yet in this current correction, with these metrics now running 0.191x and 0.186x. The gold stocks aren’t likely to finish their crucial sentiment-rebalancing selloff until this GGR retreat grows larger, more in line with bull-to-date norms.
Given the better prevailing psychology now after gold’s summer bull-market breakout, there’s probably no need for this gold-stock correction to snowball to much-higher bull averages. That’s both in terms of GDX itself and its fundamental relationship to gold as quantified by the GGR. But this gold-stock selling still has to persist long enough and be big enough to largely eradicate greed, which really hasn’t happened yet.
The reason gold-stock prices have stayed relatively high absolutely and compared to gold since their latest upleg toppings in early September is residual greed. Major uplegs generate great greed, complacency, and euphoria as they go terminal. These can only be eradicated and turned to fear, worry, and despair through sizable correction selloffs. That has yet to happen after this latest topping, the downside has been mild.
Regardless of this near-term bearish outlook on gold-stock prices, their longer-term prospects driven by fundamentals instead of sentiment look awesome. An analogy is a spring snow storm. As spring progresses, temperatures are generally warming and daylight lengthens. That’s similar to a secular-bull uptrend in the markets. Spring and summer are coming in gold stocks, after their long winter bear ending in early 2016.
Yet even in the warmest of springs, strong snow storms are always possible. Temps plunge in those, and they make it look like winter is returning. Yet no matter how severe they get, they can only last for short spells. The spring warming trend driven by far-larger factors persists, despite any temporary reversals. There’s no contradiction inherent in expecting near-term gold-stock weakness before a resuming secular bull.
This next chart uses this same GGR data but zooms out to a longer time horizon, since 2007. As GDX was birthed in May 2006, that encompasses nearly its entire lifespan. Despite their near-term correction risks, the gold miners’ stocks remain deeply undervalued relative to the metal they mine. Thus they have massive upside as this gold bull’s future uplegs unfold. Gold stocks still need to mean revert radically higher!
This current young gold-stock bull that has enjoyed some powerful uplegs in recent years still looks tiny in big-picture context. Incredibly its average GGR of 0.186x is so darned low that it is still below the wildly-extreme stock-panic levels from late 2008! That first true stock panic in a century was the biggest market fear event of our lifetimes. It’s crazy that nearly this entire gold-stock bull has drifted below that miserable metric.
Gold stocks traded far higher relative to prevailing gold prices before that panic, with the GGR averaging 0.591x in the preceding 2 years. While that drooped to 0.422x in the 2 years after that panic, that was still far higher than today’s gold bull. For GDX merely to regain those levels relative to GLD, it would have to soar another 114% higher from this week’s levels! Gold stocks remain radically undervalued compared to gold!
A more-conservative post-stock-panic GGR average is the 4-year one from 2009 to 2012. That was after that stock panic, but before 2013 where the Fed epically distorted markets. That year was when its third quantitative-easing bond-monetization campaign peaked. The Fed’s balance sheet skyrocketed 38.7% or $1125.3b higher that year alone, far beyond any precedent! The US stock markets soared 29.6% on that.
Such astounding stock-market gains killed demand for alternative investments led by gold. So the yellow metal plummeted by 27.9% in that peak-QE year, crushing GDX a gut-wrenching 54.5% lower in 2013! Thus the 4 years between those wild events were arguably the last quasi-normal years in the markets. During that span, the GGR averaged 0.381x. GDX would have to soar 93% higher to regain those levels today.
Gold stocks are still super-cheap relative to the metal they mine which drives their profits. That anomaly has to be rectified before this gold bull runs its course. GGR extremes never last, but see sharp mean reversions and subsequent overshoots eventually. That will happen as today’s secular gold bull matures in future years. The gold stocks will far outperform gold’s coming uplegs, regaining much lost ground.
No one knows how big gold’s bull market will ultimately prove, but it’s likely to be very large given the vast monetary inflation the world’s major central banks are spewing into the markets. But even considering the next upleg alone shows how compelling the gold-stock opportunities are. This gold bull has enjoyed 3 major uplegs so far, up 29.9%, 20.4%, and 32.4%. Gold’s next major upleg should prove relatively in-line.
While these bull-to-date upleg gains averaged 27.6%, let’s conservatively assume 20% for the next one. If gold’s correction extends to 10%, much smaller than that 15.5% bull-to-date average, gold will bottom near $1400. A 20% upleg from there would carry gold near $1680. At the current gold-stock bull’s super-low GGR of 0.186x, that implies GDX would rally near $29.50. The gold-price-to-GLD conversion loses 5.8%.
GLD’s managers have big costs storing gold bullion, so they charge investors 0.4% of its net assets each year. Cumulatively since GLD’s late-2004 launch, that adds up to about 5.8%. GDX $29.50 isn’t very exciting though, just 7.5% above this week’s levels. That’s because GDX would leverage a 10% gold correction by 2x to 3x, extending its own correction to 20% to 30%. So GDX’s next upleg would start off lower.
But on balance during secular gold bulls, gold stocks regain ground relative to gold. The longer they’ve generally powered higher in a bull uptrend, the more capital speculators and investors deploy in them to chase this sector’s gains. That leads to much-higher prevailing gold-stock prices. The gold miners’ upside over the coming year if the GGR mean reverts back up to that post-panic 0.381x average is impressive.
At $1680 gold and a 0.381x GGR, GDX would soar near $60.25! That’s about 120% higher from this week’s levels, and a whopping 160% higher than where GDX would bottom if its total correction extends to 25% before gold’s next upleg starts marching. With gold stocks remaining so cheap relative to gold today, their upside potential remains massive. And even these targets are conservative on multiple fronts.
Gold’s secular bull is likely to see at least several more major uplegs in coming years, not just one. And gold stocks not only mean revert in GGR terms, but overshoot proportionally to the high side as euphoria builds late in secular gold bulls. So if you plug in higher gold prices, and higher GGRs, the potential gold-stock upside targets get astoundingly high. Remember gold stocks’ last secular bull saw epic 1664% gains!
So it’s exceedingly important not to make the big mistake most traders do during major corrections. As gold and gold prices grind lower over a few months or more, traders gradually lose interest. Apathy mounts leading to gold-stock selling, which is what’s necessary to rebalance sentiment after a major upleg. By the time gold and gold stocks have bottomed, traders have either moved on or given up on those bulls.
That means they won’t buy low as corrections end, greatly limiting their potential gains in the following uplegs. The only way to overcome these natural human tendencies is to always follow the markets, to keep the big picture in mind no matter what short-term trends are. And while today’s remain bearish for gold stocks over the near-term, their deep undervaluation relative to gold implies their bull is still young.
To multiply your capital in the markets, you have to trade like a contrarian. That means buying low when few others are willing, so you can later sell high when few others can. In the first half of 2019 well before gold stocks soared higher, we recommended buying many fundamentally-superior gold and silver miners in our popular weekly and monthly newsletters. We later realized big gains including 109.7%, 105.8%, and 103.0%!
To profitably trade high-potential gold stocks, you need to stay informed about what’s driving broader gold cycles. Our newsletters are a great way, easy to read and affordable. They draw on my vast experience, knowledge, wisdom, and ongoing research to explain what’s going on in the markets, why, and how to trade them with specific stocks. Subscribe today and take advantage of our 20%-off sale! Get onboard now so you can mirror our coming trades for gold’s next upleg after this correction largely passes.
The bottom line is gold stocks remain very undervalued relative to gold. They’ve spent most of this bull languishing under stock-panic extremes, which means they still have vast room to mean revert higher. Such low gold-stock prices compared to prevailing gold levels virtually guarantee the miners will enjoy seriously-outsized gains during future gold uplegs. They can way-outperform gold for years before normalizing.
But that longer-term super-bullish fundamental outlook doesn’t negate the need for periodic corrections to rebalance sentiment. The recent one is likely still underway today, as key gold and gold-stock indicators have shown no signs of bottoming yet. That’s wonderful news if you’re looking to deploy capital in this highest-potential sector, as the next big mid-bull buying opportunity before gold’s next upleg is likely still coming.
Adam Hamilton, CPA
Copyright 2000 - 2019 Zeal LLC (www.ZealLLC.com)
********
1
Adam Hamilton, CPA, is a principal of Zeal LLC, which he co-founded in early 2000 as a pro-free market, pro-capitalism, and pro-laissez faire contrarian investing and speculating Information Age financial-services company. Hamilton is a lifelong contrarian student of the markets who lives for studying and trading them.
Merry Christmas
NY Bob..... I have been involved trading TMRC, Rare Earth Minerals in Texas. It has been very HOT........
Just sold some of my position it seems to me to be over bought, but has an awesome future......
Merry Christmas
NYBOB........ The Cmcl chart looks strong.......
http://schrts.co/jpgsXcvR
Have a good Thanksgiving NYNob. And all on the board.
chevy56
GLTA
sherman106 thank you and to all @ Caledonia Mining Corporation (CMCL)
Great Read.......We are in Good Hands........
Happy Thanksgiving to YOU and Family.........
https://www.caledoniamining.com/operations/blanket-gold-mine/
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=121251694
https://www.caledoniamining.com
God Bless
New York Bob........... Great Read.......We are in Good Hands........ Happy Thanksgiving to YOU and Family.........
NYBob........... So sorry, I could not answer your Post, but I could not get on this site for 2 weeks...... I have to catch up with lost time......... many thanks, Bob
Thank You again NYBob.
chevy56
GLTA
Caledonia Mining reports 'excellent performance' at Blanket has continued into Q4
40 views•Nov 14, 2019
Proactive
20.4K subscribers
sherman106 thank you, Gold Price Surge Helps Caledonia Mining Double Quarterly Profit -
Wed, 13th Nov 2019 11:23Alliance News
(Alliance News) -
Caledonia Mining Corp on Wednesday said a sharp rise in the gold price
helped offset a decline in quarterly production.
During the three months to September, Caledonia's gold production dipped
2.4% year-on-year to 13,646 ounces, held back by lower mining rates and
lower grades. However, the figure was up 7.3% quarter-on-quarter.
All-in sustaining costs were 16% higher, but the average realised gold
price was 23% higher, helping pretax profit more than double to USD10.4
million.
Jersey-based Caledonia, which mines from the Blanket project in
Zimbabwe, registered a 20% increase in revenue to USD20.0 million.
"The third quarter of 2019 can be characterised by two distinct phases.
The first six weeks of the quarter were seriously affected by power
outages and by the continued effects of the unstable economic
conditions in Zimbabwe on our employees; both of these factors had an
adverse effect on production and financial performance," said Chief
Executive Steve Curtis.
"The last six weeks of the quarter showed a substantial improvement as
the electricity supply improved; and measures taken in previous
quarters to improve mining controls began to bear fruit.
Notwithstanding further interruptions to the electricity supply in
October, the excellent performance in the second half of the quarter
has continued into October and early November," Curtis continued.
Looking ahead, Caledonia is confident on meeting 2019 production
guidance of 50,000 ounces to 53,000 ounces of gold. By 2022, it wants
to produce 80,000 ounces a year from Blanket.
The company in August lowered 2019 guidance from 53,000 ounces to
56,000 ounces due in part to power cuts in Zimbabwe.
Production in 2018 was 54,511 ounces.
Shares were 2.2% lower on Wednesday at a price of 610.00 pence each in
London.
By George Collard; georgecollard@alliancenews.com
https://www.lse.co.uk/news/gold-price-surge-helps-caledonia-mining-double-quarterly-profit-c24leuwur7jth9u.html
Caledonia Mining Corporation (CMCL) - sherman106 )
Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc
TSX Exchange | Nov 1, 2019, 5:27 AM EDT | Real-time price
logo
CAL $ 11.10 RT
CHANGE
$0.61 (+5.8151%)
NYBob...... The Cmcl Chart is very bullish. We could see a slight pull back
as it hits highs here, but we can be certain there is growth ahead for the
Company stock.......... And to think of potential ACQUISITIONS
possibly........... I have been in this stock for many years when it was
trading at the .05 level under Stefen Hayden. It has been a long haul, but
now there is air under its wings............ GOOD INVESTING NY BOB
sherman106 thank you -
P/E RATIO: 2. try to find some gold producer with a
lower Price earnings ratio ??? its the best I found -
Mostly if I founf one below 10 it was a real bargain and
a 2. might be a 10 bager? ) with a fair market value -
ex. compare to....
Great Gold & Silver Mines producers with low price earnings ratio
like P/E 21.5 to KL compare to -
ex.
aem 107
abx 46
dgc 27
fnv 63
img 23
k 47
yri 29
It tells me that Kirkland Lake Gold kl 21.5 its undervalued, oversold
and a great bargain
profitable gold producer for investors as me looking for -
Real Money Safety Hard Asset -
Caledonia Mining Corporation (CMCL)
https://www.caledoniamining.com/investors/reports-presentations/#presentations
Company page: https://www.caledoniamining.com
https://www.caledoniamining.com/media/
Gold Price Surge Helps Caledonia Mining Double Quarterly Profit
Wed, 13th Nov 2019 11:23Alliance News
(Alliance News) -
Caledonia Mining Corp on Wednesday said a sharp rise in the gold price
helped offset a decline in quarterly production.
During the three months to September, Caledonia's gold production dipped
2.4% year-on-year to 13,646 ounces, held back by lower mining rates and
lower grades. However, the figure was up 7.3% quarter-on-quarter.
All-in sustaining costs were 16% higher, but the average realised gold
price was 23% higher, helping pretax profit more than double to USD10.4
million.
Jersey-based Caledonia, which mines from the Blanket project in
Zimbabwe, registered a 20% increase in revenue to USD20.0 million.
"The third quarter of 2019 can be characterised by two distinct phases.
The first six weeks of the quarter were seriously affected by power
outages and by the continued effects of the unstable economic
conditions in Zimbabwe on our employees; both of these factors had an
adverse effect on production and financial performance," said Chief
Executive Steve Curtis.
"The last six weeks of the quarter showed a substantial improvement as
the electricity supply improved; and measures taken in previous
quarters to improve mining controls began to bear fruit.
Notwithstanding further interruptions to the electricity supply in
October, the excellent performance in the second half of the quarter
has continued into October and early November," Curtis continued.
Looking ahead, Caledonia is confident on meeting 2019 production
guidance of 50,000 ounces to 53,000 ounces of gold. By 2022, it wants
to produce 80,000 ounces a year from Blanket.
The company in August lowered 2019 guidance from 53,000 ounces to
56,000 ounces due in part to power cuts in Zimbabwe.
Production in 2018 was 54,511 ounces.
Shares were 2.2% lower on Wednesday at a price of 610.00 pence each in
London.
By George Collard; georgecollard@alliancenews.com
https://www.lse.co.uk/news/gold-price-surge-helps-caledonia-mining-double-quarterly-profit-c24leuwur7jth9u.html
Caledonia Mining Corporation (CMCL) - sherman106 )
Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc
TSX Exchange | Nov 1, 2019, 5:27 AM EDT | Real-time price
logo
CAL $ 11.10 RT
CHANGE
$0.61 (+5.8151%)
NYBob...... The Cmcl Chart is very bullish. We could see a slight pull back
as it hits highs here, but we can be certain there is growth ahead for the
Company stock.......... And to think of potential ACQUISITIONS
possibly........... I have been in this stock for many years when it was
trading at the .05 level under Stefen Hayden. It has been a long haul, but
now there is air under its wings............ GOOD INVESTING NY BOB
sherman106 thank you -
P/E RATIO: 2. try to find some gold producer with a
lower Price earnings ratio ??? its the best I found -
Mostly if I founf one below 10 it was a real bargain and
a 2. might be a 10 bager? ) with a fair market value -
ex. compare to....
Great Gold & Silver Mines producers with low price earnings ratio
like P/E 21.5 to KL compare to -
ex.
aem 107
abx 46
dgc 27
fnv 63
img 23
k 47
yri 29
It tells me that Kirkland Lake Gold kl 21.5 its undervalued, oversold
and a great bargain
profitable gold producer for investors as me looking for -
Real Money Safety Hard Asset -
Caledonia Mining Corporation (CMCL)
https://www.caledoniamining.com/investors/reports-presentations/#presentations
Company page: https://www.caledoniamining.com
https://www.caledoniamining.com/media/
thanks again NYBob.
chevy56
GLTUS
NYBOB.......... Many thanks for the Cmcl news and updates..... The company is now getting the World Exposure to it success and potential growth. Needless to say, it is on its way to higher stock prices, especially now, that Price of Gold is expected to increase.
I do have to say, the Executive of Cmcl I think that paved the way for this excellent expansion for the company is Mr. Leigh Wilson, CEO. He came aboard I believe in 2013 in the middle of the Mugabe lunacy period......... It has been uphill for Cmcl since...........
Caledonia Mining Corporation (CMCL) - sherman106 )
Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc
TSX Exchange | Nov 1, 2019, 5:27 AM EDT | Real-time price
logo
CAL $ 11.10 RT
CHANGE
$0.61 (+5.8151%)
NYBob...... The Cmcl Chart is very bullish. We could see a slight pull back
as it hits highs here, but we can be certain there is growth ahead for the
Company stock.......... And to think of potential ACQUISITIONS
possibly........... I have been in this stock for many years when it was
trading at the .05 level under Stefen Hayden. It has been a long haul, but
now there is air under its wings............ GOOD INVESTING NY BOB
sherman106 thank you -
P/E RATIO: 2. try to find some gold producer with a
lower Price earnings ratio ??? its the best I found -
Mostly if I founf one below 10 it was a real bargain and
a 2. might be a 10 bager? ) with a fair market value -
ex. compare to....
Great Gold & Silver Mines producers with low price earnings ratio
like P/E 21.5 to KL compare to -
ex.
aem 107
abx 46
dgc 27
fnv 63
img 23
k 47
yri 29
It tells me that Kirkland Lake Gold kl 21.5 its undervalued, oversold
and a great bargain
profitable gold producer for investors as me looking for -
Real Money Safety Hard Asset -
Caledonia Mining Corporation (CMCL)
https://www.caledoniamining.com/investors/reports-presentations/#presentations
Company page: https://www.caledoniamining.com
https://www.caledoniamining.com/media/
NYBob...... The Cmcl Chart is very bullish. We could see a slight pull back as it hits highs here, but we can be certain there is growth ahead for the Company stock.......... And to think of potential ACQUISITIONS possibly........... I have been in this stock for many years when it was trading at the .05 level under Stefen Hayden. It has been a long haul, but now there is air under its wings............ GOOD INVESTING NY BOB
http://schrts.co/TBHXpIng
NY Bob......... Thank you for the important news report on Cmcl..... We certainly have a Cmcl Tiger by the tail........... A future of GROWTH, Profits, Dividends, and Possible Acquisitions......... And NY Bob, NO DEBT............... Any way you look at it with 10 million plus shares outstanding, we are in for a ride......
Thank you for keep the Board up to date.
Caledonia Mining: A Growing Gold Miner Currently At A 3-4X PE
Oct. 30, 2019 12:00 PM ET|5 comments |
About: Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc (CMCL)
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4300328-caledonia-mining-growing-gold-miner-currently-3minus-4x-pe
Summary
With technical signals on gold prices looking strong again, it may be one of the last moments where investors can invest at historically low prices.
Small miner stocks offer significantly higher potential rewards to diligent investors.
A very small company, Caledonia Mining, is perhaps the most profitable and least expense gold mining stock in the business with 50% margins at a "P/E" of 3-4X.
The company also has low debt, positive working capital, and is growing output at a rate much faster than the market expects.
My discounted earnings analysis suggests that the fair value of the company without an increase in gold prices is at least $15.
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(Source - Pexels)
The primary focus on my research and writing over the past week has been precious metals. I was lucky enough to take profits on most of my precious metal's portfolio in late August and have been waiting for short-term technical signals to look green again.
Following the recent 7% pullback in the price of gold and 10% on silver, now looks like a great time to get back in. While technical signals are highly fallible, they do suggest another 20%+ move in gold and even more in silver. As you can see below, silver (SLV) is just starting to break higher in a "bull flag" type pattern:
ChartData by YCharts
A few days ago in "SILJ: Precious Metals Correction Looks Over, Time To Make A Leveraged Play" I explain why junior precious metal miners are probably the best (and riskier) way to take advantage of the trend. In the article, I also explain my $1850/oz price target for gold and $40 target for silver based on the trends/my expectations regarding real interest rates. Of course, many gold investors including myself are expecting the metal to rise to $5000/oz or more, but I'll stay on the safe side.
Caledonia Mining Corporation (CMCL) is a great company to take advantage of this. It is an extremely small gold miner in Africa that has huge margins, high growth, a good management team, and comes at a "P/E" of 3-4X. After looking through over one hundred mining companies, Caledonia is the best one I found.
Caledonia Mining Corporation
There is a lot to like about Caledonia. Chiefly, the company has flown under the radar of investors despite very high profitability and in spite of low gold prices. It is a "nano-cap" stock with a market cap of only $82M, so it is less liquid and more volatile than many of its peers. That said because many institutions can't consider a company that small and that lacks analyst coverage, huge mispricings often occur.
Such is true with Caledonia who has not been covered by SA in over three years. So much has changed for the company over that period. Of its U.S ADR's, only 1.5% are owned by institutions.
Most of Caledonia's revenue comes from a mine they control in Zimbabwe called the "Blanket Mine". They bought the mine in 2006 and have steadily increased output since, despite political and economic unrest in Zimbabwe. This mine is also one of the world's most profitable with an all-in-sustaining-cost at $800/oz. This is far lower than the $1100-$1400 industry average and has enabled the company to recently operate at a 50%+ net margin. Considering many miners barely breakeven today, that is an incredibly high figure.
The management team also looks solid. They have managed to increase recovery rates from 85% to 94% and continue to search for ways to increase output while keeping costs low. Importantly, I did not find any typical red-flags regarding overpaid management in their financial reports. Mining companies often enrich management before shareholders; Caledonia appears to have great shareholder orientation.
As another example, take a look at how their mine's indicated contained ounces have grown in recent years:
(Caledonia Q2 2019 Report)
Of course, the most important metric is proven holdings, but it is likely that they hold around 800K contained oz worth of gold after removing the speculative "inferred" amount but including indicated amounts. Since I generally trust their reported expectations, I will use 800K as my base case but offer alternative valuations using their lower and higher estimates.
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
Luckily, the operations of such a company are relatively straightforward and make for an easy DCF analysis. They also have low debt and a lot of cash on hand, so they will likely have very little need to dilute shareholders.
The company currently produces 50K ounces of gold per year and has infrastructural projects in place to grow that figure to 80K by 2022. As noted in the linked presentation, they aim to grow that figure to 100K by 2023 and eventually 250K. Because 250K would require over 800K in gold, I will not include that target in my base-case. I will also assume that gold and production costs per oz grow at 3% per year. Of course, I expect much more for gold, but this will be my base case analysis.
Using my base estimate of 800K in mineable gold, this should keep them operating the current mine until 2027. (I'll also give a DCF using other estimates).
(Self Sourced, production targets sourced from Sept. CMCL presentation)
The company has historically brought home 60% of its EBITDA to its bottom line so I'll keep it simple and assume earnings will be 60% of EBITDA. This gives me the following income projection:
Importantly, I'm not going to take depreciation out of my analysis since depreciation is a real cost for mining companies.
With 10.7M in shares outstanding, this implies a $2 EPS this year that expands to just over $5 by 2027. Using a 10% cost of the capital discount rate (typical in mining), this implies a share price of $22.80. Even without a change to the gold price, this implies a 2X return on the stock. Of course, the fact that they're focusing on one mine in Zimbabwe makes it a bit riskier, but even at an extremely high cost of capital of 20%, a $16.29 share price is implied (120% return).
From here on out I'll use both the normal 10% figure and 20%. 20% may be more accurate due to the nature of the company's geography. Labor problems could certainly occur as they have in the past in Zimbabwe and put a pause on operations. Even more, the country has a record of violating property rights. I personally believe the worst is behind Zimbabwe but will use a 20% discount rate to account for these risks.
A Note On How I'm Calculating This
If you're curious how I'm making these calculations, what I'm doing is translating gold prices to probable revenue and then taking out production and overhead costs to get net income. From there, I divide by shares outstanding to get an EPS forecast.
I could then sum up all the future EPS's to get total expected returns, but I want today's fair price, so I discount those cash flows by 10-20% per year and add them up. Because Zimbabwe is a riskier place of business, a higher discount rate is appropriate.
To illustrate, take a look at this chart:
(Self Sourced)
Date EPS Forecast 10% Cost of Equity Discounting 20% Cost of Equity Discounting
2019 $ 2.02 $ 2.02 $ 2.02
2020 $ 2.50 $ 2.27 $ 2.08
2021 $ 3.00 $ 2.48 $ 2.09
2022 $ 3.53 $ 2.66 $ 2.05
2023 $ 4.10 $ 2.80 $ 1.98
2024 $ 4.69 $ 2.91 $ 1.88
2025 $ 4.83 $ 2.73 $ 1.62
2026 $ 4.97 $ 2.55 $ 1.39
2027 $ 5.12 $ 2.39 $ 1.19
Sum $ 34.76 $ 22.80 $ 16.29
A Note on Currency Exposure
In case you are wondering why my $2 EPS estimate is much lower than the company's reported $3.5 TTM EPS, it is because I am assuming no exchange rate impacts. The company made a staggering $25M (roughly half of its total earnings) on U.S-Zimbabwean Dollar hedges due to the recent devaluation which temporarily boosted EPS over the past twelve months.
More gains like this are likely since the currency has continued to fall since their last report. To explain, the company said:
If the Zimbabwe currency remains at the current level against the US Dollar, Caledonia shareholders will eventually benefit from the devaluation, but only when the underlying liability falls due for settlement
Now, this can mean substantial profits for Caledonia, but if inflation gets out of control as it did in the late 2000s, it will harm the company's growth. The mine was temporarily shut down from 2008 to 2009 due to hyperinflation, so the ongoing devaluation does pose a material risk and is partly why I am using a 20% discount rate.
Best Case Scenario Valuations
My expected scenario implies high returns, but DCF valuations have very high exposure to underlying assumptions. Often, those assumptions miss the reality, even if they are in-line with management's guidance.
Personally, I believe that gold is headed back to $1800 over the next year and possibly as high as $2600 by 2025. If we assume that gold rises to $1800 by 2020 and continues all the way to $2600 by 2025 while AISC (cost per oz) maintains a 3% growth rate, we get to roughly $9 EPS by 2027. Using a 10% discount rate we come to a valuation of $37.5 and $26 using a 20% discount rate. Personally, this is the scenario that I expect the most and implies a return of 2.5X-4X.
Of course, if we make the likely assumption that they eventually find more gold, the story is even better. The company believes they potentially are able to pull 1800K ounces out of the ground. If that is true and we assume AISC grows at 3% with gold after 2025 and 60% of EBITDA goes to profits, we get a valuation of $38-$68 using a 10%-20% cost of equity or a 4X-8X price return.
Worst Case Scenario
I think the upside is pretty clear on Caledonia. It depends a lot on assumptions, but I think it is fair to say that the stock is very undervalued.
That said, Caledonia is a riskier mining company and if my assumptions prove to be false, the stock could certainly fall from here. They only currently have 130K in proven gold. It is almost certain that they have more, but I'll use that figure as an absolute 'worst-case scenario' valuation.
Even then, the worst-case-scenario downside looks to be limited. If we assume that gold stays at a 3% growth rate with AISC and that they only can mine 130K more in gold we get an EPS of $2 this year, $2.50 in 2020, and $1.29 in 2021 when proven gold runs out. This gives us a per-share valuation of $5.00-$5.36 depending on a 10%-20% discount rate. Thus, we arrive at a worst-case loss of 20%-30% which, to me, is certainly worth the risk.
Now, if gold prices fall back to 2019 lows then it could be more ugly. That said, the company has such a low cost of production that gold would essentially need to fall by 40% from here for the company to be in trouble.
In the absolute worst-case scenario where the company has both no non-proven gold and gold falls back to $1200 per oz, we estimate a share price minimum of $2.8-$3.0. Of course, nobody wants a 50% loss, but the odds of this event are extremely low. In my opinion, the probability of the absolute best-case scenario is higher than this scenario.
The Bottom Line
It is worth noting that the company is also currently trading 30% below book value and $15M in positive working capital ($8 in million cash and the rest in inventory). Per-share, this working capital implies another $1.4 in value that I have left off of my previous valuations.
In summary, the true fundamental value of Caledonia is likely at least $15 so long as their indicated, probable, and proven contained ounce expectations are accurate. If their indicated level turns out to be non-existent, the company is likely around its fair value. Of course, if their "inferred" level pans out, then the stock is worth around $35.
The company checks all the boxes and has great cash flows. I will stick with my base case valuation which puts the company at a fair value of $18, even without a significant increase in gold prices. That said, if gold prices continue higher then I'll happily hold until the company is overvalued.
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Disclosure: I am/we are long CMCL. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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Comments 5 • Sort by
Value On The Street
Comments1907 | + Follow
Did you account for the fact that shareholders only own 49% of the mine? It doesn't appear that you did.
30 Oct 2019, 01:13 PMReply2Like
Le Sugre
Comments27 | + Follow
I was about to comment exactly the same ....
30 Oct 2019, 06:24 PMReply0Like
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Caledonia Mining on track to hit full year guidance as grades improve
563 views•Oct 15, 2019
Proactive
19.9K subscribers
Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc Blanket Electricity Situation Improving
ST HELIER, Jersey, Oct. 16, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) --
Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc (NYSE AMERICAN: CMCL; AIM: CMCL; TSX: CAL) (“Caledonia”) announces that the electricity supply situation at the Blanket Mine (“Blanket”) has improved substantially in late August and September thanks largely to a timely and coordinated response from the Chamber of Mines, the Ministry of Mines, the Ministry of Energy and Power Development and the Zimbabwean Energy Regulatory Authority (“ZERA”) which introduced a new electricity pricing schedule for the mining industry to support the funding of imported electricity which is used exclusively to supply participating mining companies.
Electricity is now priced in US Dollars at a cost which is slightly lower than the pricing structure prior to the recent monetary devaluation. The electricity supply authorities have also implemented an uninterrupted power supply agreement for the mining industry in an effort to support the sector and electricity supply has stabilised following these changes.
Caledonia does note recent media commentary regarding the electricity supply and pricing situation in Zimbabwe as a whole but notwithstanding this, Blanket continues to operate normally and electricity pricing in US dollar terms is stable and not affected by the increases recently announced.
As previously disclosed, Blanket did experience electricity disruptions during the month of July and in early August and relied heavily on its installed diesel generator back-up capacity. Prior to this time, Blanket had installed back-up generator capacity of approximately 12.5 megawatts (MW), sufficient to run the entire mine at full capacity but insufficient to sustain both the mine and the Central Shaft project. In response to the increased risk of electricity supply outages Blanket has purchased an additional 6 MW of diesel generator capacity. The additional generators are on site and are currently being installed and are expected to be operational within the month of October after which Blanket’s operations will be fully insulated from the risk of unstable electricity supply.
Caledonia is also in the advanced stages of evaluating a project to install solar photovoltaic generating capacity at Blanket to further reduce dependence on the electricity grid, reduce operating costs and ensure a more environmentally sustainable electricity supply. Advanced engineering work is underway and Caledonia is in the process of applying for the relevant regulatory approvals and will shortly embark on a tender process from interested parties to build and operate the project. Caledonia expects to fund the project itself but the tender process will also invite proposals from potential funders who may be able to offer a more cost effective funding structure.
In the future, Caledonia anticipates that Blanket will have a blended electricity supply from grid, solar and back-up diesel generators which will deliver greater levels of operational reliability, lower operating costs and improved environmental sustainability.
Commenting on the electricity situation, Steve Curtis, Chief Executive Officer, said:
“The disruptions we experienced early in the third quarter necessitated a larger than normal utilization of our diesel generator back-up. We have been pleased by the rapid and decisive response from both government and industry which has resulted in the alleviation of the supply shortages and a more stable US Dollar based pricing structure.
“The arrival of an additional 6 MW of back-up diesel generators on site is also a positive development for our business and will ensure future reliability in the face of a potentially difficult electricity supply situation in the Southern African region in the medium to long-term. We look forward to their commissioning which will help sustain the pace of the Central Shaft project which is key to the achievement of our long-term production target of 80,000 ounces by 20221.
“Moreover, Caledonia is at an advanced stage in the evaluation of a Solar PV plant which could supply Blanket’s baseload demand during peak sunlight hours. Engagements are commencing with potential equipment suppliers and regulatory authorities and the engineering and financial evaluation work on this project is well advanced.
“I would like to take this opportunity to thank our technical staff both at the mine and in support functions who have managed to maintain operations during a disruptive period and have, as usual, delivered technical solutions to ensure our future business resilience.”
For further information please contact:
Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc
Mark Learmonth
Maurice Mason Tel: +44 1534 679 802
Tel: +44 759 078 1139
http://crweworld.com/article/news-provided-by-globenewswire/1272604/caledonia-mining-corporation-plc-q3-2019-production-update
http://www.caledoniamining.com
WH Ireland
Adrian Hadden/ James Sinclair-Ford Tel: +44 20 7220 1751
Blytheweigh
Tim Blythe/Camilla Horsfall/Megan Ray Tel: +44 207 138 3204
Note: This announcement contains inside information which is disclosed in accordance with the Market Abuse Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014.
Cautionary Note Concerning Forward-Looking Information
Information and statements contained in this news release that are not historical facts are “forward-looking information” ....and also supervised the preparation of the technical information contained in this news release.
Thanks for update..
chevy56
GLTUS
Caledonia Mining Corp - Making money in Zimbabwe growing gold fields -
11 Oct 2019
CRUX Investor
5.2K subscribers
Interview with Steve Curtis, CEO of gold miner Caledonia Mining Corp.
(TSX:CAL, NYSE:CMCL, AIM: CMCL)
Start of the straw.https://www.kitco.com/news/2019-10-07/Russia-dumps-U-S-dollar-Country-s-top-oil-producer-chooses-euro-for-all-future-deals.html
chevy56
GLTUS
Zimdollar drops 135,7% – NewsDay Zimbabwe October 4, 2019
BY MISHMA CHAKANYUKA
"THE Zimdollar has devalued by 135,7% to $15,25 against the greenback on the interbank market since it was declared the sole legal tender on June 24, owing to persistent foreign currency shortages and the deteriorating economic environment.
When the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe scrapped the use of a basket of other foreign currencies, the Zimdollar was trading at US$1:2,5, but as of yesterday, the interbank rate stood at US$1:$15,25.
The interbank foreign exchange market was introduced in February this year to allow companies to trade forex, but access to foreign currency has remained challenging for businesses.
On the parallel market, the local currency was trading at 1:$17 against the greenback, a testimony of serious hard currency scarcities battering the economy.
This comes after the International Monetary Fund team which was in the country for the Article IV Consultation that coincided with the first review of the Staff-Monitored Programme last month told authorities that there was need to contain fiscal spending consistent with non-inflationary financing, tighten monetary policy to stabilise the exchange rate and start rebuilding confidence in the national currency.
The Washington-based Bretton Wood institution noted that weakening confidence, policy uncertainty, a continuation of foreign exchange market distortions and a recent expansionary monetary stance has increased pressure on the exchange rate.
Economist John Robertson said the country should increase its exports to generate more foreign currency and have an increased ability to create its own money.
“We need to increase our exports by increasing production in order to earn more foreign currency and reduce our imports. We also need to increase the ability to create our own money so that we will not have to rely more on using foreign currency,” Robertson said.
He added that the prevailing economic environment is not conducive for investors because it kills market confidence.
“We are not getting any investors in the country because this environment is hostile to investors. We have created an economy that is harmful to ourselves. Some people are saying money is losing value, hence they are taking their money and banking it somewhere else which is not in this country, hence we still have cash shortages.”
Last week, the RBZ issued a directive to all banks to freeze the accounts of companies suspected of engaging in money-laundering activities and fuelling the foreign currency parallel market.
Before lifting the prohibition order, the central bank also banned all cash-in, cash-out and cash-back transactions, in a bid to eliminate the buying and selling of cash at a premium.
All these efforts have proven fruitless as the hard cash and foreign currency shortages persist"...................Zimbabwe is a basket case with sky high political & economic risks & the incompetent, low skilled CMCL management team of Steve Curtis, Dana Roets & Mark Learmonth have married CMCL shareholders to Zimbabwe, the most scorned country in the world by most gold stock investors.
Citizens must prepare for Zimbabwe’s economic Armageddon
October 4, 2019 8:25 PM
Source: Citizens must prepare for Zimbabwe’s economic Armageddon – The Zimbabwean
For the past fourteen months, since election 2018, we’ve been paralyzed, helplessly witnessing the government converting our US dollars into useless Zim dollars, watching the loss of our savings, erosion of our incomes, soaring inflation and a new frenzy of looting and corruption. Hunger is knocking on Zimbabwe’s door this October 2019.
Some of it we can blame on last season’s drought but we also have to apportion responsibility to the latest ‘missing billions’ story from Zimbabwe. We don’t do corruption in thousands or hundreds of thousands in Zimbabwe anymore, now it’s always in the millions and billions of disappeared US dollars. Parliament is still waiting for answers as to what happened to US$3 billion allocated for agriculture which can’t be accounted for since the government’s Command Agriculture scheme started in 2016. The missing billions didn’t translate into the grain in our silos so where did it go? Mansions? Luxury cars? Foreign bank accounts? And before we even get the answers to all that missing money or Mr Mugabe’s self-confessed missing US$15 billion or ZINARA’s missing $25 billion, President Mnangagwa just announced an additional injection of ZW$1.8 billion and US$51 million into this year’s Command Agriculture programme. More seed and fertilizer or more mansions and cars?
Last week the US Ambassador to Zimbabwe, Brian Nichols, exposed the one simple fact about our agricultural capability which we all know; a fact which should be cause for national shame twenty years after Zanu PF’s seized all commercial farmland in Zimbabwe. Ambassador Nichols said: “In the 1990s, there was a deep drought in the region and all Southern African nations were fed by Zimbabwe, but now this country requires food aid to feed half of its rural population.”
With just a couple of weeks to go until our main planting season, the stacks of seed maize are piled high in the supermarkets but no one can afford to buy it. This morning in my home town seed maize is selling for ZW$389 for 10 kgs and Compound D fertilizer is ZW$500 for 50 kgs. ZW$900 to plant one acre of maize is more than a lecturer earns in a month, more than a domestic or garden worker earns in five months. Desperate to try and survive the ravages of inflation which international economist Steve Hanke puts at over 800% a year, people are left with no choice but to plant maize pips left from last year’s harvest and just hope for the best. Even more alarming are the current huge empty gaps on supermarket shelves where the staple maize meal usually is; the price sticker is there: ZW$59.89 for 10 kgs but there has been nothing to buy for the past fortnight or more.
With such a massive food disaster in the making and at a time when almost half the population need international food aid, the Zimbabwe government have been diverting our attention with a rash of new financial regulations and Statutory Instruments, just as they did at the height of the last economic crash in 2008. It is now illegal to display, quote, charge, sell, pay for or receipt goods and services in US dollars or any currency other than ZWL dollars. Large fines have been tagged on to the latest rash of financial constraints which look very much like sending us headlong back to the days of empty shelves as the government takes control of every single US dollar out there and businesses are left with nothing to use to import the goods they require.
A fortnight ago the Reserve Bank announced that Bureau de Change could not pay out more than 7% of the bank stipulated rate when buying currency. Two days ago they dropped the rate again to between 3 and 5%. At the beginning of this week the Reserve Bank banned all cash in, cash out and cashback transactions offered by the country’s mobile phone money operator, Ecocash saying they were trying to protect consumers from abuse and profiteering. In a country where banks don’t have any money and 90% of the population don’t have bank accounts, Ecocash has become the lifeblood of Zimbabwe. An uproar ensued and within three days the Reserve Bank backtracked on the ban.
Frankly, it’s a nightmare trying to understand and keep up with all these rules, regulations and iron fist policies and these words from ZCTU President Peter Mutasa offer the best summary of the current situation: “What the RBZ is doing is not new; the same institution blamed everyone but itself in 2007-2008. It went on the same spree and churned out Statutory Instruments weekly… but failed to reverse hyperinflation. … It is wasting time and burying the head in the sand…. These arbitrary policies are going to destroy the few remaining companies and jobs.” Mutasa concluded with the chilling words: “Citizens must prepare for the 2008 financial and economic Armageddon.”
GOLD FORUM AMERICAS / XPL-DEV 2019 -
Caledonia Mining Corp. WEBCAST -
Denver, CO
Denver Gold Forum presented by The Denver Gold Group, Inc. on
behalf the world's precious metal producers.
https://wsw.com/webcast/dgf19/cal.to/?lobby=true&day=3
Caledonia eyes 75 000 ounces gold output -
Blanket Mine
Business Reporter
CALEDONIA Mining Corporation, which owns Blanket Mine in Matabeleland South province, targets to increase gold output to 75 000 ounces in 2021 as the mine has begun focusing on increasing output.
Last year, Blanket Mine produced 54 511oz of the yellow metal and this year, the gold miner targets production ranging between 50 000 and 53 000oz.
“Blanket Mine plans to increase production from 54 511oz of gold in 2018 to approximately 75 000oz in 2021 and approximately 80 000oz in 2022,” said Caledonia in a statement announcing the appointment of Mr Nick Clarke as an independent non-executive director.
Mr Clarke, who is also chairman of Central Asia Metals PLC, is a highly experienced Chartered Engineer with 45 years in the mining industry. He has held senior positions in several resource companies and is well known as a successful executive in the sector having been involved in the construction of major mining projects and conducted several fundraising initiatives on the stock markets.
The group’s chairman, Mr Leigh Wilson, was quoted as saying: “As we enter the equipping phase of the Central Shaft project at Blanket Mine, having completed shaft sinking in July, Caledonia’s management team and board continue also to focus on new opportunities as Blanket Mine begins to ramp up to its target of 80 000oz of gold per year from 2022 onwards.
“Mr Clarke’s experience will provide further support in evaluating and implementing these opportunities, with Blanket Mine’s ongoing mining operations acting as the catalyst in furtherance of the company’s growth and development”.
On his appointment as an independent non-executive director of Caledonia, Mr Clarke said he was delighted to join Caledonia’s board at an exciting time in the company’s development.
“It is testament to the strength of Caledonia’s management team that, in what has been a turbulent period in Zimbabwe, the Blanket Mine has operated successfully, Caledonia has continued to pay a regular quarterly dividend and the Central Shaft project is nearing completion.
“I look forward to being part of Caledonia’s board and working with my fellow directors and Caledonia’s management team to support Caledonia’s profitable growth,” he said.
In July this year, the mining group, which owns 49 percent interest in Blanket Mine, announced that it had completed shaft sinking at the new Central Shaft at the mine under an estimated $44 million investment.
Meanwhile, gold output at Blanket Mine improved by 6,4 percent to 12 712oz in the second quarter ended June 30, 2019 compared to 11 948oz in the previous quarter. Gold output for the quarter under review was slightly below target, but ahead of the comparable quarter in 2018, where the projection was 12 657oz.
Despite gold output in the quarter under review being lower than the previous comparable period, Caledonia maintains its 2019 full year production guidance of 53 000 to 56 000oz and remains on track with progress towards its 2022 target.
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Presentation welcome to CALVF -
CALVF's A target production rate of 100,000 oz per annum -
http://www.caledoniamining.com/blanket4test2.php
CALVF's BLANKET GOLD MINE Production Au 40,000 oz/year
http://www.caledoniamining.com/pdfs/CALPres05262011.pdf
http://www.caledoniamining.com/pdfs/CALPres05192011.pdf
http://www.caledoniamining.com/blanket2test2.php
http://www.caledoniamining.com/blanket3test2.php
CALEDONIA MINING CORP.
A Profitable Gold Miner! (CAL:TSE) (CALVF:US) (AIM,LONDON:CMCL)
http://www.caledoniamining.com/blanket.php
CALVF Production Cost Au $585.-- per ounce -
79th Minesite Forum - Caledonia Mining Corporation - Mark Learmonth -- 19/05/2011
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GsyJrcDDsEw
http://www.caledoniamining.com/pdfs/Pres_01282011a.pdf
http://www.caledoniamining.com/pdfs/Pres_01282011b.pdf
http://www.caledoniamining.com/pdfs/Pres_09102010.pdf
CALEDONIA MINING CORPORATION
Blanket Gold MineBackgroundLocated in the south-west of Zimbabwe Blanket Mine is wholly owned and operated by Caledonia, having been acquired from Kinross Gold Corporation in June 2006. The mine is 560 kms from Harare, the capital city and 150 kms from Bulawayo, the country's second largest city. The provincial capital of Matabeleland South, Gwanda town is 16 kms from the mine.Access to the mine is by an all-weather tarred road to Gwanda, which is linked to Bulawayo by a national highway. | Blanket Gold Mine - Zimbabwe | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The main railway line from South Africa passes through Gwanda. An airstrip on the outskirts of Gwanda caters for light aircraft. Blanket mine has been producing gold since the time of the ancients. However recorded production started in 1904. Early workers tended to pick the native gold "eyes" from the pay shoots. Significant production milestones were in 1965 when Falconbridge acquired the property and immediately introduced a production culture commensurate with multinational corporations by increasing gold production to some 45 kgs/month on average and in 1993 when Kinross took over the property and built a CIL plant to add the treatment of the tailings pile to the run-of-mine ore. Gold production peaked at an average of 110 kg/month during the tailings treatment years from 1995. However tailings treatment is now completed. To date in excess of 1 million ounces of gold have been produced from the property. HistoryAfter being worked by the ancients before the 19th century, the Blanket claims were acquired by the Matabele Reefs and Estate Company who subsequently mined no less than 128 000t from 1906 to the end of 1911. From 1912 to 1916, the Forbes Rhodesia Syndicate mined some 23,000t. The period from 1917 to 1941 has no reliable records. It is possible the mine lay dormant as this was a period of geopolitical instability. In 1941, F.D.A. Payne resumed mining activities accounting for some 214,000t before selling the property to Falconbridge in 1964. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The property became a significant producer from 1965 when the then new owners, Falconbridge, introduced a production culture commensurate with multinationals producing some four million tonnes of ore up to the end of September 1993, when Kinross Gold Corporation, took over the property. Kinross immediately put into place a program of further increasing production by adding the treatment of the tailings dumps to the run-of-mine stream. By the end of 2005 the property had produced in excess of 1 million ozs of gold since records were kept. Caledonia Mining Corporation acquired the Blanket Mine effective as at April 1, 2006. Property GeologyThe geology consists of a basal felsic unit of no known mineralisation presence. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
It is generally on this lithology type that the various tailings disposal sites are located. Above this unit are the ultramafics that include the banded iron formations hosting the eastern dormant cluster and the ore bodies of the nearby Vubachikwe complex. The active Blanket ore bodies are found in the next unit, the mafics. | #1 Conveyor feeding the two Surface Primary Jaw Crushers | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The tables below summarize the RESERVES AND RESOURCES at December 31, 2008 Cautionary Note to U.S. Investors - the United States Securities and Exchange Commission permits U.S. mining companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only those mineral deposits that a company can economically and legally extract or produce. Caledonia uses certain terms in this website - and in some cases press releases - such as "measured", "indicated", and "inferred" "resources", which the SEC guidelines generally prohibit U.S. registered companies from including in their filings with the SEC. U.S. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F which may be secured from Caledonia, or on the SEC website at: http://www.sec.gov/edgar.shtml.
(i) 1 tonne = 1,000 kilograms = 2,204.6 pounds Some numbers may not add due to rounding Mr. David Grant, C. Geol., FGS, Pr. Sci. Nat., an independent consultant is the "Independent Qualified Person" for Blanket's reserves and resources as required by National Instrument 43-101 of the Canadian Securities Administrators. Mr Grant's Independent Report on Caledonia's acquisition of the Blanket Mine as required by NI 43-101 is available in the "Investor Centre-Technical Reports" section of this website. This report has also been filed on SEDAR and is available at www.sedar.com.
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Blanket Gold Mines -
has been producing gold since the time of the ancients time since
before King Solomon's Mines :
Blanket Gold Mines commenced the production ramp-up to
the targeted annualized rate of 40,000 ounces of gold
by the end of 2010.
http://www.caledoniamining.com/pdfs/01242011.pdf
http://www.caledoniamining.com/
Caledonia Mining Corporation (CAL)
Exchange: Toronto Stock Exchange
http://tmx.quotemedia.com/quote.php?qm_symbol=CAL
http://www.caledoniamining.com/overview.php
Golden Valley
http://www.docstoc.com/docs/32719706/EERSTELING-GOLD-MINING-COMPANY-LIMITED
Eersteling Gold Mine
Background
The 100% owned Eersteling Gold Mining Company Limited ("Eersteling") is located 36 km south of the city of Polokwane in Limpopo Province of the Republic of South Africa, 300 km north of Johannesburg.
100% interest in Eersteling gold mine located 36 kilometers from the town of Polokwane in the rolling terrain of the Northern Province of the Republic of South Africa.
As of the December 31, 2005, the company had a gold resource estimate of 597,500 tonnes in the Eersteling Mine property
Location of the Eersteling Gold Mine on the map
21
http://edgar.brand.edgar-online.com/EFX_dll/EDGARpro.dll?FetchFilingHtmlSection1?SectionID=6185226-977-370822&SessionID=_-RfHS0AHfsw027Goedgevonden - South Africa
The Corporation holds prospecting rights over the Goedgevonden diamond bearing kimberlite pipe and surrounding area. This property is located approximately 20km north of the Stilfontein gold mine in the Klerksdorp district of the North West Province in South Africa and 200km south west of Johannesburg.
In April 2005 an application for conversion of these rights was submitted in terms of the Mineral and Petroleum Resources Development Act ("MPRDA") and the rights were granted in December 2006. An additional application for New Order Prospecting rights was submitted over an adjoining farm, Eleazar in June 2005. It is expected that this application will be granted shortly as soon as documentary proof of BEE participation has been presented.
Previous prospecting activities carried out in the mid 1970's on Goedgevonden indicate that the pipe is oval in shape and covers a surface area of approximately 0.27 hectares. This work also confirms that the pipe was drill intersected at a depth of 425 meters, and that further down-dip extensions remain undefined. Previous drilling reported an average diamond content of 35 to 45 carats per hundred tonnes of material ("cpht"), with one hole yielding 65 cpht. The Corporation has not completed the work necessary to estimate a resource in terms of NI 43-101 for the Goedgevonden property.
A preliminary drilling program conducted in 2002 consisted of 7", 8" and 12" diameter reverse circulation drill holes, followed by the collection of the drill samples and diamond recovery. Four holes were drilled in the centre of the pipe, three to a depth of 150 meters, and the other to 120 meters. The three remaining holes were drilled to delineate the pipe in more detail. All of the seven holes drilled entered the kimberlite at a depth of about 6 meters, and the four centrally-located holes were stopped whilst still in the kimberlite. A total of about 56 tonnes of drilling sample was collected and processed through a Van Eck and Lurie dense-media separation ("DMS") plant and wet Sortex machine. From the diamond recoveries it was confirmed that the Goedgevonden pipe was diamondiferous, and sufficient gem-quality diamonds were recovered to warrant a larger bulk sample. Geological interpretive work as well as detailed ground gravity and magnetometer surveys were completed during 2003 but there was no further exploration activity on this property as corporate resources were concentrated on the Corporation's other projects which were considered to be of higher priority in adding shareholder value.
Granting of the New Order Prospecting Rights (not yet signed) gives the Company security of tenure. Discussions are in progress with other parties with a view to realizing value by joint venture or disposal of the properties in the Goedgevonden Diamond Project.
Blanket has claims and exploration permits in the vicinity of the existing mine operations.
Blanket intends to undertake exploration on these areas to assess their suitability for further
development as potential satellite operations, feeding crushed ore into the existing
Blanket milling and CIL plant.
Blanket claim incl. many past gold producing gold mines operations ...
Higher target ;)
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