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******How the market behaves in a recession
Chart by teaparty
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And the techs move first. IMHO
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Apocalypse postponed?
Commentary: Best timers remain more bullish than the worst timers
By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch
Last update: 3:08 p.m. EST Jan. 23, 2008
The U.S. stock market looked over the edge of the cliff on Tuesday and decided not to jump off - thanks to Ben Bernanke and his crisis team of psychologists at the Federal Reserve.
So, what's next?
Did Tuesday morning's low at 11,634.92 on the Dow Jones Industrial Average represent the capitulation low of the correction that began last fall? Or will investors, upon further consideration of what must be so awful in the financial world as to require an emergency Fed rate cut just days before a regularly-scheduled one, decide that happy days are probably not here after all?
For guidance, I decided to turn, as I have on several prior occasions, to the 10 newsletters with the best risk-adjusted market timing performances over the past 10 years. To be sure, you might wonder why I would even bother, since the best timers have, on balance, been wrong over the last three months, clinging to a bullish posture even while the great majority of newsletters were turning more bearish. See Nov. 15 column
But the past three months constitute the exception rather than the rule. If the past is prologue, the best performers are more likely to be right about the market's direction than the worst performers. But no system is perfect; long-term success requires a disciplined adherence to systems that work. So I advise against dumping a system with good long-term success because of a single misstep.
With that thought in mind, here is a synopsis of what the top timers currently are saying, listed in alphabetical order. (I have eliminated from the following list one of the ten top performers because it is a purely mechanical model based on the calendar. Its good performance notwithstanding, its current posture tells us little about the market's term prospects.)
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Blue Chip Investor: Very bullish. Editor Steven Check's equity valuation model is based on the stock market's earnings yield relative to the yield on corporate bonds; that model now classifies stocks to be more undervalued than at any time in the 28-year history Check has for this model. In fact, according to Check's calculations, if corporate earnings neither grow nor contract, and interest rates simply stay where they are currently, then the stock market would have to appreciate 37% just to b ring his equity valuation model back to the midpoint of its historical range. Check's model portfolio currently is 89% invested.
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Bob Brinker's Marketimer: Bullish. In his most recent issue, published in early January, editor Bob Brinker wrote that "the risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not likely to materialize any time soon ... We expect the S&P 500 index to achieve new record highs this year and to reach the 1600's range in the process." Brinker's model portfolios are fully invested.
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Chartist and Chartist Mutual Fund Timer. Bearish. Editor Dan Sullivan turned bearish last week, and moved his model portfolios to a 100% cash position. See Jan. 18 column
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Investors Guide to Closed-End Funds: Moderately bullish. Editor Thomas Herzfeld's "U.S. Equity Funds" model portfolio is around 49% invested.
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Medical Technology Stock Letter: Difficult to classify. It may seem odd to include in this list a newsletter that is oriented more toward the medical technology and biotech sectors than to the overall market. But this letter, edited by John McCamant, deserves to be included for the simple reason that a hypothetical portfolio that was divided between the stock market and cash according to his recommended exposure level is in the top 10 for risk-adjusted timing-only performance over the last decade. McCamant's model portfolio currently is 92% invested, while his "Trader's" portfolio is aggressively bullish at 147% invested (i.e. 47% on margin). This averages out to a recommended exposure level of 119%, even though McCamant says that he believes that the negative "overall tone of the stock market... will continue for the foreseeable future."
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No Load Fund Investor: Neutral. Editor Mark Salzinger writes that he believes "2008 will be a difficult year for the equity markets. Declining growth and moderately rising inflation in the U.S. will keep a lid on the gains of most stocks, though the large-cap and mid-cap "growth" areas of the U.S. and international markets should hold up better than the rest." Salzinger is currently allocating 70% of his "Wealth Builder" portfolio (his most aggressive) to U.S. equities.
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Timer Digest: Bearish. Editor Jim Schmidt bases this newsletter's market timing model on a consensus of the top market timers. His consensus of the top 10n based on performance over the past 52 weeks is bearish, with 2 bulls and 8 bears. His consensus of the top ten for performance over the last two years is bullish, with 5 bulls, 3 bears, and 2 neutral. His composite timing indicator based on these two consensus readings, known as the "5 & 10 Consensus," went bearish last Saturday. The newsletter's model portfolios currently are fully invested in stocks or mutual funds.
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Vantage Point: Moderately bullish. One of the two indicators on which editor John Harris had been basing his bullish posture turned bearish last week. As a result he reduced his recommended equity exposure from 100% to 75%.
Where does this summary leave us? Three of these nine top timers are bearish, and the bullishness of two more of them is less than it was a couple of months ago. The average equity allocation among all nine is 69%. In contrast, the last time I conducted a survey of the top timers, last November, their average equity allocation stood at 83%. And none of the top timers was then bearish.
So there has been a significant deterioration in the bullishness of the average top timer.
Not all hope is lost for the bulls, however. Consider the recommended equity allocations among the 10n market timing records with the very worst records over the last decade. On average they currently are recommending a 13% exposure to the short side of the market. So even though the best timers aren't as bullish as they were a couple of months ago, they remain significantly more optimistic than the worst timers.
The bottom line is a muted bullishness. And this dovetails nicely with the message that emerges from a contrarian analysis of all newsletters, as opposed to just the top and bottom performers. That message has become less bullish as well in recent weeks. Read full story End of Story
Mark Hulbert is the founder of Hulbert Financial Digest in Annandale, Va. He has been tracking the advice of more than 160 financial newsletters since 1980.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/contrast-between-best-worst-timers/story.aspx?guid=%7B9AFB865E%2D97C1%2D4837%2DB77D%2DE389BC7C430F%7D&dist=TNMostRead
VTI_MONTHLY
Now using IHUB to load charts
So they will stay here forever
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No problem...
Yes he did, but he has a Copyright on it
so I can not post it.
Sorry.....
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Someone said he issued a special alert today to subscribers...does anyone know what he said? Is he still a bull??
Brief summary of Bob Brinker's radio show on 1/5/08
(1)Economy will be slower Q4, Q1, and Q2
(2)Fed will reduce rates on 1/30/08
(3)Stock market looks 6 to 7 months ahead.
Translation:
A dip followed by a rise ?
PS: Discloser: I do get Bob Brinker's newsletter,
but not connected to him in any way. I pay $185 /year
for the news letter just like any one else.
You may hate or love BOB BRINKER
but he made a good general market
buy call on 3/11/03
And I feel it is important to know when
he gives a sell (part or whole) in the
future. IMHO.
I cover VTI on the board below.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=11491
Kirk estimated the effect of the maximum recommended QQQQ allocation for October 2000 to March 11, 2003 to be about a 25% reduction in Portfolio I, and his numbers look reasonable to me.
That estimate has been revised upward to 29.5%. I was far too conservative. See http://bobbrinkerfanclub.blogspot.com/2007/09/affect-of-bob-brinkers-qqqq-advice-on.html
for the full details.
Well is Bob getting close to a sell ?
Take a look !
To see if a bulletin is posted.
http://www.bobbrinker.com/secure/mktmrlogin.asp
Update on the QQQQ recommendation's effect on Portfolio I:
Kirk estimated the effect of the maximum recommended QQQQ allocation for October 2000 to March 11, 2003 to be about a 25% reduction in Portfolio I, and his numbers look reasonable to me. At the end of that period Brinker added enough of a QQQQ-equivalent fund to incorporate the QQQQ holdings, so the 25% balance reduction should be valid for all subsequent months.
The current Portfolio I balance shown on Brinker's Web site is $282,059 through June 30, 2007, and the balance that was shown in Marketimer for September 30, 2000 was $139,431. Thus the total reported gain for the period was 102.3%.
Reducing the ending balance by 25% gives $211,544.25, for a total gain of 51.7%
For comparison, Yahoo's historical returns page currently shows the price of SPY adjusted for splits and dividends as follows (these numbers will change as new dividends are reported, but the ratio should stay the same):
29 Jun 2007 - 150.43
29 Sep 2000 - 129.79
Gain = 15.9%
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=SPY&a=05&b=1&c=2007&d=05&e=30&f=2007&g=d
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=SPY&a=08&b=1&c=2000&d=08&e=30&f=2000&g=d
Thus, in spite of the QQQQ blunder, in a tax-deferred account Brinker's P1 would have had more than three times the gain of SPY with dividends.
Detailed summary of Bob Brinker’s QQQQ Advice
http://home.netcom.com/~fanclubs/BobBrinker/QQQQ_Update.html
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Whats Brinkers latest thoughts???????????????????
Two days before bob published his latest I wrote what I thought bob was looking at. You may read it here.
http://investment.suite101.com/article.cfm/bob_brinker_update_for_july_2006
That ones old news anyway Richard....a current update would be better......new issue on the stands! LOL
Oh Richard....I already know! I did subscribe for a number of years until his coverup of QQQQ fiasco but he was gracious enough to send a full refund on that years renewal.....reading his regurgatation about GNMA's also got a wee bit nauseating particularly in view of the fact that he abandoned all stock picks or anything else that even had the remotest chance of risk in his prediction ( excluding his once every 5 yr call).....if you don't recommend anything it's hard to be wrong. I still follow Bobby even though his pounding on the chest gets a bit sickening but I don't like to be in opposite corners since his macro calls are quite prescient....Bob has fallen in love with Bob and if he's not careful he may become double jointed....I won't be buying his letter again in my lifetime but thanks for your advice......keep those treasuries laddered now, ya hear. LOL
buy his newsletter and find out!
I'm hearing Brinker is a buyer at SPX 1250....can anyone confirm?
According to this "January 2006 Marketimer Model Update" at http://home.netcom.com/%7Ekirklindstrom/BB/BobBrinkerS20060103.html he is still bullish
Author: Steve Thompson
Date: January 3, 2006 7:47 PM
BRINKER gave his last sell in a January.
Will he do it again ????
ok keep us posted on the "great one"
Maybe Bob Brinker will give a "percentage" sell in Jan 2006
due to inverted yield curve ?
Welcome to iHub. I see this is your first post and it promotes Bob Brinker. How interesting.
I think that listening to his show is a must for anyone who wants to do a good job managing their money.
I agree that Brinker's show is good to listen to for people who want to learn to manage their own money. Except for when Terry Savage hosts, I don't think anyone is better. Terry doesn't try to sell anything but her books so she doesn't play the wise oracle as Bob does.
There is no question that he is the best. There are others with slightly better track records according the Hulbert Financial Digest but they make many trades per year and IMO that's got to be eating up some of their profits and it's so much more work.
#1 Yes there is no question. He is good, but far from the best. The Prudent Speculator and "No-Load Fund X" are rated much higher in most of Hulbert's categories.
#2 Hulbert's results include trading costs.
#3 I have the latest Hulbert Financial Digest open in front of me. Hulbert lists the top newsletters on pg 8 for the last 5,10,15, 20 and 25 years. Brinker is not listed on any of these lists. He is listed in 5th place on the 10 year list, when adjusted for risk. I doubt he'd have that rating if Hulbert included his QQQQ advice ( QQQQ Summary: http://6URL.com/BRINKERQQQQSUMMARY )
His advice on other financial matters is both honest and intelligent.
I disagree. If he makes a mistake on the show, he won't fess up to it. He also drops coverage of things he has had a buy on without issuing a sell on (TEFQX and his 2000 advice to buy QQQQ when in the $80's are two I have documented proof of) which a new investor would never become aware of.
I agree with both of you.
If you look at the big picture, if bob continues making the right market calls going forward- that is BIG! and a huge asset for his followers. It is difficult to make a believer of those who do not take the time to study cyclical bear and bull markets and do not have the patience to wait for these buy and sell "moments".
rich
There is no question that he is the best. There are others with slightly better track records according the Hulbert Financial Digest but they make many trades per year and IMO that's got to be eating up some of their profits and it's so much more work.
His advice on other financial matters is both honest and intelligent. I think that listening to his show is a must for anyone who wants to do a good job managing their money. Obviously, I am a long time subscriber and profiteer from his advice.
Yep. He's da man. I can't wait for that bulletin!!!
Reading and listening to Bob Brinker.
It seems he remains bullish on the market.
Yep. I get it. He's the best timer out there, imo. When Bob speaks, I listen.
Burk
The last letter was Jan 2005, so I am only
missing Feb 2005. Also, if he gave a sell
signal the newspapers would pick it up in a week or
so. The best part of his newsletter is really the
way he tells you in advance what Funds to buy.
For some one with a flexible IRA, his newsletter is
very helpful. IMHO.
How much is it worth to you to find out? LOL.
;)
rob123
I no longer get his newsletter.
So I do not know for sure.
Buy I think his buy of Mar 2003 is still on via his radio program.
What's Brinker's current position. Is his buy signal still on?
Exactly. Great MT two days ago, huh?? I'm sure glad I know what he's saying. You, too, Larry?? ;)
We will let them read about it when it comes out in the newspaper(g)
What do you mean? His info is proprietary. ;)
Must keep an eye on Bob Brinker here. IMHO.
We have an iHub board for CACS here http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=1460 that I started when CACS was selling for under 50¢ in late 2002 after the bear market bottomed in October 2002. (CACS is currently at $6.77)
The two flaws you see with CACS are mistakes in your data. Hopefully I can clear things up for you.
#1. "Management owns over 10M of the 33.7M shares outstanding."
See
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/mh?s=CACS and http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=CACS
Roger Koenig is the founder and CEO. IT shows he owns 10.2M shares.
Nancy Pierce is his wife and an officer in the company. It shows she owns 12M shares. I believe this counts the overlap of the shares she holds jointly with Roger and is shown in KELD LLC.
Thus I believe together they hold 12M of the 33.7M shares outstanding which is 36%
They owned over 50% of the shares until they had a 6M share secondary at $12.25 earlier this year to raise roughly $72M in cash after expenses and they sold some of their holdings above the offering price as shown here http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=CACS
With 36% of the shares in the hands of the two that run the company, I think we are safe from insiders using options to enrich insiders at the expense of shareholders. I believe this is a large reason there has been management turnover; they run a tight ship when it comes to the balance sheet.
#2. "It is almost- or nearing a Penny Stock value.
It is in risk of bankruptcy."
CACS finished 2002 at 38¢ a share. I added significantly to my IRA and ROTH at that time since they had 93¢ a share of cash on the balance sheet and a book value of several dollars. I also added shares to my newsletter portfolio. Their customers were going bankrupt and they were cutting expenses as fast as they could to preserve stockholder equity. They did a good job.
Today CACS has about $3.60 a share of cash on the books with no debt.
They are generating cash every quarter, have real income with a TTM P/E of 26 and a forward P/E of 12
and they are selling a leading product in a market that is growing at a huge rate.
VALUATION MEASURES
Market Cap (intraday): 227.96M
Enterprise Value (31-Aug-04)³: 109.28M
Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 25.84
Forward P/E (fye 31-Dec-05)¹: 11.88
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)¹: 0.73
Price/Sales (ttm): 2.35
Price/Book (mrq): 1.32
Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)³: 1.11
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)³: 12.75
.
Balance Sheet
Total Cash (mrq): 122.05M
Total Cash Per Share (mrq): 3.62
Total Debt (mrq)²: 0
Total Debt/Equity (mrq): 0
Current Ratio (mrq): 11.441
Book Value Per Share (mrq): 5.205
frog
You wrote
"Why are you in love with this stock?"
Comment:
(1)Do not own this stock.
(2)Used this stock to show difference Kirk's newsletter
(which buys risky stocks)and Brinker's newsletter
(Models 1,2 and 3 which spreads risk over funds)
Update 6/9/09
I am looking for return data for the "Brinker Fixed Income Advisor." I have data from Mark Hulbert but nothing from the Brinkers
They don't publish a table of return data by year for either Marketimer or "Brinker Fixed Income Advisor" so I'd like to make one here. If you have the data, send it to me and I'll add it here.
2008 Data
Mark Hulbert says Brinker's "fixed income advisor" model portfolio #1 lost 21.7% last year, 2008.
Mark Hulbert says Brinker's "fixed income advisor" model portfolio #2 lost 11.5% last year, 2008.
Mark Hulbert says Brinker's "fixed income advisor" model portfolio #3 lost 5.2% last year, 2008.
Brinker's "Marketimer" model portfolio #1 lost 39.7% last year, 2008.
Brinker's "Marketimer" model portfolio #2 lost 37.4% last year, 2008.
Brinker's "Marketimer" model portfolio #3 lost 23.9% last year, 2008.
Vanguard's Total Bond fund made 5.1% last year, 2008
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0084&FundIntExt=INT#hist=tab%3A1a
Vanguard's Total Stock Market fund lost 37.0% last year, 2008
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0085&FundIntExt=INT#hist=tab%3A1a
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