Bob Brinker Data

[Math Junkie]

Update on the QQQQ recommendation's effect on Portfolio I:

Kirk estimated the effect of the maximum recommended QQQQ allocation for October 2000 to March 11, 2003 to be about a 25% reduction in Portfolio I, and his numbers look reasonable to me. At the end of that period Brinker added enough of a QQQQ-equivalent fund to incorporate the QQQQ holdings, so the 25% balance reduction should be valid for all subsequent months.

The current Portfolio I balance shown on Brinker's Web site is $282,059 through June 30, 2007, and the balance that was shown in Marketimer for September 30, 2000 was $139,431. Thus the total reported gain for the period was 102.3%.

Reducing the ending balance by 25% gives $211,544.25, for a total gain of 51.7%

For comparison, Yahoo's historical returns page currently shows the price of SPY adjusted for splits and dividends as follows (these numbers will change as new dividends are reported, but the ratio should stay the same):

29 Jun 2007 - 150.43
29 Sep 2000 - 129.79

Gain = 15.9%

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=SPY&a=05&b=1&c=2007&d=05&e=30&f=2007&g=d

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=SPY&a=08&b=1&c=2000&d=08&e=30&f=2000&g=d

Thus, in spite of the QQQQ blunder, in a tax-deferred account Brinker's P1 would have had more than three times the gain of SPY with dividends.