BIOTA HOLDINGS Australia (fka BTA.AX)

[mlkrborn]

NABI Biopharma: Mangrove Partners agrees to support amended transaction between Nabi Biopharmaceuticals and Biota Holdings (NABI) 1.79 : The Mangrove Partners Fund,one of the largest stockholders of Nabi Biopharmaceuticals (NABI), announced that it is pleased that Nabi Biopharmaceuticals has responded to the concerns of its stockholders by amending the terms of the Transaction between Nabi Biopharmaceuticals and Biota Holdings. The amended Transaction now returns greater cash to Nabi stockholders and provides increased certainty through the use of a collar mechanism to protect against drops in the price of Biota shares. Mangrove believes that the total expected value of the revised transaction is ~$1.99 per share, which is comprised of $1.04 per share in cash and the equivalent value of $0.95 per share based on Biota stock price. They believe that this potentially represents a 17% premium to the terms of the original Transaction using Biota's stock price as of the close on September 18, 2012. In summary, Mangrove says improved transaction terms are in best interest of Nabi Stockholders and will vote in favor of all transaction proposals at upcoming special meeting. Additionally, Mangrove terminates Proxy Solicitation in opposition to the transaction.

[mel55]

any updates on finding a partner for Laninamivir

[BIOTABULL]

Factfile on bird flu
PARIS - Following is an updated factfile on H5N1 avian influenza:

WHAT IS BIRD FLU? Bird flu is also called avian influenza. There are 15 strains of flu that affect birds, but the one behind the global health scare is the H5N1 subtype. The first known cases of bird flu were detected in Hong Kong in 1997 and also involved H5N1.


HOW IT SPREADS TO HUMANS: Almost all the human cases of bird flu have been people who were directly exposed to infected fowl. They made contact with the virus through the birds' saliva, nasal secretions and faeces, which become dry, pulverised and are then inhaled.


THE TOLL: If two new fatalities in Turkey and a 12th death in Indonesia are confirmed as having been caused by H5N1, the strain will have killed 77 people in six countries since it erupted in Southeast Asia in 2003. The World Health Organisation (WHO) website lists 74 deaths from H5N1 out of 142 cases as of December 30. Vietnam, with 42 deaths, has the most.


SYMPTOMS: Bird flu in humans causes symptoms that are like human flu, such as fever, cough, sore throat and muscle aches, conjunctivitis, pneumonia and other severe respiratory diseases.


IS CHICKEN SAFE? Avian flu is not a food-borne virus, so the risk from eating properly-cooked poultry is considered negligible.


THE RISK: At present, H5N1 is not easily transmitted from bird to human. In other words, a person would have to pick up a lot of virus in order to be infected. Nor is it easily passed from human to human: there have been only three suspected cases where this is believed to have happened. The big worry is that H5N1 could pick up genes from conventional human flu viruses, making it both highly lethal and highly infectious. As it would be a radically new pathogen, no one would have any immunity to it. The mutation could occur if H5N1 co-infects a human who already has ordinary flu or the agent is picked up from poultry by an animal such as a pig that can carry bird and regular flu strains.


PAST PANDEMICS: The 20th century saw three flu pandemics, in 1918-19, 1957-58 and 1968-69. The 1918-19 pandemic killed as many as 50 million people -- more than the death toll from AIDS in more than two decades. Jet travel, the world's huge population today and the larger number of people with compromised immune systems (from AIDS and cancer, for instance) as compared with 1918 mean the toll from so-called Spanish flu could be easily surpassed.


ECONOMIC COST: A global pandemic of any scale would cost hundreds of billions of dollars because of the disruption to economic life. The World Bank estimates a bill of 550 billion dollars (465 billion euros) for rich countries alone. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) estimates costs for Asia ranging from 99 to 283 billion dollars. AS a comparison, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), which killed fewer than 800 people in its 2003 outbreak, cost more than 30 billion dollars.


VETERINARY CONTROLS: These are the time-honoured first line of defence in any outbreak of animal disease. The task is to identify farms where there is an outbreak of H5N1, quarantine the area, kill all fowl suspected to be in contact with it, disinfect machinery, vehicles and clothing, and bar sales of poultry products from the affected region. But these controls are only really dependable if a country has a good surveillance network and responds quickly and effectively to an outbreak. Adequate compensation, too, is essential for encouraging honest reporting by farmers.


COUNTER-MEASURES: A world conference in Geneva last November declared that up to a billion dollars will be needed over the next three years to help poor countries shore up their defences, including 35 million needed over the following six months. The action plan stresses greater veterinary surveillance to detect outbreaks, preventative vaccination of poultry, culling of infected flocks and compensation for farmers. Its other focus is on strengthening health monitoring systems, stockpiling of antiviral drugs to dampen the spread of an outbreak and exercises to train medical personnel and the public.


VACCINE: No definitive vaccine against the viral threat is available as no-one knows the precise shape it will take after mutating to the feared highly contagious form. Several prototypes are being explored. But the risk is that they could be only partially effective or even useless because the virus' genetic shape will have changed and thus will not be recognised by antibodies. If a pandemic does occur, the big concern is about the delay. It could take up to six months to formulate and test the right vaccine, which will only be available in limited quantities immediately thereafter. Traditionally, flu vaccines take up to nine months to manufacture, using egg-based technology, although ways of speeding this up using genetic "reverse engineering" are being intensively explored.


DRUG ARSENAL: The range of antiviral drugs is small, but especially so when it comes to bird flu. Only two are considered effective against H5N1: zanamivir (commercialised as Relenza) and oseltamivir (Tamiflu). These medications are called neuraminidase inhibitors, which block the virus from replicating. If taken within a couple of days of the onset of illness, they can ease the severity of some symptoms and reduce the duration of sickness. The WHO recommends countries stockpile antivirals, but does not give a figure as to how big that stockpile should be. It hopes to have its own stockpile, sufficient for three million people, by early 2006. A looming worry is whether the shifting virus might become resistant to Tamiflu.[/B]


Sources: WHO, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), US National Institutes of Health (NIH), World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE), Nature, British Medical Journal (BMJ), The Lancet, New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM), US Department of Health and Human Resources, news reports.


01/05/2006 12:22 GMT



Published: 1/5/2006

[BIOTABULL]

“Pump and Dump” – Bird Flu Get-Rich-Quick Schemes Target the Unwary
US securities regulator NASD has issued an investor alert, “Bird Flu Stock Scam Could Be Hazardous To Your Financial Health”:



The threat of bird flu is fueling stock scams touting large gains from companies that claim to be poised to capitalize on helping the world avoid a global pandemic. NASD is issuing this Alert to warn investors that fax and email investment scams may come your way trumpeting the promise of large gains for companies with products and services aimed at fighting bird flu.



One fax claimed its company "has the solution for tracking and containing the Bird Flu virus in turn preventing it from spreading." Citing the enormous cost of fighting avian flu, the fax stated the stock was "positioned to gain 250% or more." The fax went on to urge investors not to miss out on a stock that was "clearly missed by Wall Street."



In a press release coinciding with the alert, NASD Vice President of Investor Education John Gannon said: "This is an age-old pump-and-dump scheme with a brand new disguise. Unfortunately, fraudsters are quick to exploit every new crisis or catastrophe to peddle their get-rich-quick scams to unsuspecting investors."

December 29th, 2005



Making Your Blood Go Cold
The global investment firm Citigroup has issued a bird flu report for Australian investors, recommending that in the event of a pandemic they sell shares in companies that depend on people gathering in public places - such as shopping centre operator Westfield, casino owner PBL and betting shop operator Tabcorp – and in airlines and tourism companies. These should be replaced by the shares of companies that will benefit if people are forced to stay at home, such as phone companies, media companies and transportation companies.



The report allows The Australian newspaper to indulge in some business bashing. Under the headline “Outcry Over Bird Flu Hit List” it publishes the comments of a “business ethicist,” John Sweeney:



"This makes your blood go cold," said Mr Sweeney, leader of the Edmund Rice Business Ethics Initiative. Mr Sweeney also said that market behaviour may need to be regulated in the event of a bird flu pandemic.



The newspaper also quotes a fund manager:



James Thier, who oversees a $380 million portfolio at Australian Ethical Investment, said Citigroup should have kept its advice to "positive stocks" like vaccine makers and pathology. "These people are looking at avian flu and saying that these are potential winners for us. They are looking at the negative side," Mr Thier said. "But this needs to be approached from a positive perspective rather than saying, 'How can we profit from millions of deaths?'."

December 1st, 2005



If Symptoms Persist, Consult Your Stockbroker
Britain’s The Observer newspaper provides bird flu investment guidance, under the headline, “Bird flu: if symptoms persist, consult your stockbroker…”



Research from the global portfolio strategists at giant American finance house Citigroup sums it up in a nutshell - sell British Airways and BP, buy Blockbuster and Nintendo. The lesson is that in the case of a serious outbreak, we will be too frightened to leave our homes.



….On the other hand, the best case scenario leads to a temporary blip - the markets hate uncertainty - but this is, in fact, a buying opportunity, just as happened during the Asian SARS crisis three years ago. Buy telecoms, internet and, of course, drugs companies. “While it is difficult to quantify the likelihood of a human pandemic, our analysis suggests avian flu is a rising risk to the global economic outlook,” says the report.



Or in other words: first see your doctor, then get a second opinion from your stockbroker.

November 21st 2005



Up and Down
Shares in bird flu companies Roche Holding and its Japanese partner Chugai Pharmaceutical fell yesterday after reports that Tamiflu – made by Roche – might have caused two Japanese teenage boys to commit suicide. Roche has said there is no clear evidence that the drug was responsible.



But shares in Avant Immunotherapeutics soared more than 10% on news that it is developing a bird flu vaccine.



Also developing a vaccine is the Russian Flu Research Center, according to the Novosti news agency. It believes it could be ready for commercial production by February or March next year. Just one problem – not enough money.

November 15th, 2005



Hot Stock
Shares in Rockeby Biomed, a tiny Singapore-based company listed on the Australian Stock Exchange, have rocketed on the announcement that it has international distribution rights to two new tests for bird flu. Company management claimed to be surprised by the market reaction.

November 9th, 2005


Flu Shot Long Shots
Forbes magazine reports on four small biotech stocks that could soar in the event of a bird flu pandemic. They are AVI BioPharma, BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Novavax and Sinovac Biotech.

November 1st, 2005



Chiron Analysis
The Motley Fool investor website contains an analysis of Chiron, following the award to the company of a $62.5 million contract to supply bird flu vaccine. The report also mentions other stocks, all well-known to investors – GlaxoSmithKline (which is a Motley Fool recommendation), Sanofi-Aventis and Gilead Sciences. Motley Fool also mentions Chiron’s distributor, Henry Schein.

October 29th, 2005



Novavax Shares Surge
Business Week reports that shares in biotech company Novavax jumped 33% yesterday, following a 10% rise on Monday, on the potential for the company’s vaccine, which reportedly protects animals against avian flu. The shares, which dipped to 70 cents in August, are now trading at $5.53.

October 26th, 2005



Biota – The Little Aussie Bird Flu Battler
A couple of months ago you could have bought Biota Holdings shares for around 50 cents. Last week they hit $2.60.



The reason – bird flu.



For Biota is the pharmaceuticals company behind Relenza (the marketing name for zanamivir), the ground-breaking anti-viral drug that is rated second only to Tamiflu in ability to fight bird flu.



Biota has its headquarters near Monash University, a 15-minute drive down Blackburn Road from my home here in the Eastern suburbs of Melbourne....continue reading Biota – The Little Aussie Bird Flu Battler.

October 25th, 2005


The Flu-Resistant Investment Portfolio
Reuters presents “ways to make investment portfolios at least partly flu resistant”. Here are some of the suggestions:



"People are not going to be congregating where other people are. So I would think that eBay Inc. and companies that sell on-line would probably do very well because people just aren't going to go to the mall to do shopping," said Jim Huguet, president and co-CEO of Great Companies LLC. Huguet also suggested companies that make home entertainment equipment and video games could benefit from a stay-at-home mentality. "It sounds gruesome but I guess you could invest in the funeral services companies. Obviously they would see a significant increase in business," added Huguet, mentioning Stewart Enterprises and Service Corp International.



If flu vaccines are to be produced the conventional way, a potential beneficiary could be egg producers, such as Cal-Maine Foods, noted Steve Brozak, president of WBB Securities….Should the worst case scenario pan out and a survivalist bunker mentality take hold, suggested Brozak, with tongue in cheek, "the best bets may be canned goods and shotgun shells."



Thomas Lydon, president of Global Trends Investments…said "hard currency or precious metals are the safe areas. In protecting yourself, maybe gold makes sense." That sentiment was echoed by Peter Schiff, President of Euro Pacific Capital, especially if Asia is the epicenter of a flu crisis as predicted. "Asia is where everything is getting produced. If Asia was less productive they'd ask for their money back from the United States and the result could be a selling-off of the dollar," Schiff said. "Gold should do well. If the dollar goes down, gold goes up automatically," Schiff added.

October 25th, 2005



Stock Market News
The Associated Press reports:



Shares of Quidel Corp. jumped Friday after the medical test maker said its QuickVue flu test not only showed high rates of accuracy in a recent study but can also detect the virus that causes avian flu….The company said an Australian study of its 10-minute QuickVue Influenza A+B test over the continent's summer flu season accurately diagnosed the presence of Type A flu virus 96 percent of the time and the absence of flu virus 97 percent of the time. In an earlier study conducted in Hong Kong and Japan, the test was shown to be able to detect the H5N1 virus.

October 22nd, 2005



Investor’s Guide to Bird Flu
MSN Money has presented an investor’s guide to bird flu, with a list of “flu” stocks and details on each. They are: Crucell, Novavax, Gilead Sciences, Roche, Biota, GlaxoSmithKline, BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, AIM Global Health Care Fund, Sanofi-Aventis, MedImmune, Acambis, Chiron and Novartis.

October 20th, 2005



Looking for Profits in Bird Flu
Reuters features an article on currency traders and their outlook on how a bird flu panic might affect currency movements. The main points:



"Speculators are already looking at this," said Craig Russell, senior foreign exchange dealer at Alaron FX in Chicago. "Negative news is a chance to make a profit. People will short the currency." Shorting is where an investor borrows a currency and sells it, betting he will be able to profit by repaying the loan with currency bought at a lower price….



The expectation is for an initial knee-jerk reaction in the currency of a country where any human epidemic breaks out, but that afterwards the currencies of countries most dependent on international trade and travel would be hit hardest. "I can't imagine it's good for any currency but the Aussie and kiwi dollars bear the brunt of global risk events," said Michael Jansen, currency strategist at National Australia Bank in New York. Investors see the fortunes of the Australian and New Zealand dollars as sensitive to even slight changes in global economic growth as they are commodity-based currencies, whose economies are heavily reliant on international trade….



"Since it is impossible to predict when and with what magnitude such a pandemic would hit, the only thing that would be fairly certain is that the market would experience increased volatility until the uncertainty of the situation wore off," said Global Forex Trading chief currency dealer Kurt Hoeksema….



If a bird flu virus were to infect significant proportions of the global population even safe-haven currencies and securities like the Swiss franc and U.S. Treasury bonds might come under pressure, analysts said. Then "we could potentially see an outflow from currency markets and into commodities such as gold for a short period of time as they could potentially be viewed as a currency substitute/store of value," said George Davis, chief technical analyst at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto.



The Motley Fool investor website also carries a report (registration – which is free – is required) on stocks that could benefit. They are Roche Holdings, Gilead Sciences, Biota Holdings, GlaxoSmithKline and Sanofi-Aventis. No surprises there.

October 18th, 2005



Bird Flu and the Stock Market
The Wall Street Journal has presented an investor’s guide to stocks that might benefit from their exposure to bird flu. The obvious name is, of course, Swiss company Roche Holdings, which makes Tamiflu, and whose shares have climbed 15% in three months. However, the article has put the spotlight on the small Australian company Biota Holdings, which makes the anti-viral drug Relenza. Biota shares have quadrupled in three months. Two other companies involved in bird flu vaccine developments are Sanofi-Aventis SA and Chiron Corporation. Also mentioned in the article is Gilead Sciences, which developed Tamiflu with Roche. Finally, the article highlights Korean kimchi (hot pickled cabbage) manufacturer Pulmuone. Some reports suggest that kimchi might help ward off flu infections.

October 14th, 2005

[BIOTABULL]

Biota goes up as France stockpiles flu drugs
By Stephen McMahon
November 12, 2005


Bird flu fears are pushing up Biota Holdings' share price.
Photo: Reuters

AdvertisementAdvertisement
AVIAN flu fears propelled Melbourne drug company Biota Holdings' share price up 36 per cent yesterday, after the French Government confirmed a significant order for its drug.

The French order of 9 million units of Biota's Relenza, which is a preventative and curative measure against the latest strain of bird flu, is three times the global sales of the product since it was launched in 1999.

Biota chief executive Peter Molloy is positive this order is just the start of a stockpiling of Relenza by governments: "We would expect this is the start of a list of substantial orders over the next year or so that we are going to be able to report."

A major order in August from the German Government for 1.7 million units of the drug, combined with an article in The Lancet medical journal calling on governments to consider stockpiling Relenza — as well as rival product Tamiflu — as part of their pandemic planning, caused a surge in Biota's share price from 50¢ to a high of $2.48 in mid-October. It fell to $1.36 on Wednesday.

The announcement yesterday helped Biota's share price to finish trading up 51.5¢, at $1.94.5, with more than 31 million shares changing hands.

Matthijs Smith, biotechnology analyst at stockbroker Patersons Securities, said that while the deal was good news for Biota, the market response was an overreaction.

"The stockpiling of drugs is a temporary thing and the market is overreacting," he said.

"The more panic there is about avian flu, the more the stockmarket overreacts to news like this."

Biota is seeking to confirm the value of the French Government order as it is involved in litigation with the drugs licensee, GlaxoSmithKline.

Relenza normally sells for between $25 and $30 a unit and Biota receives a 7 per cent royalty payment, but no details are available about the new deal.

Biota is seeking damages from GSK, claiming its lackadaisical marketing efforts allowed rival product Tamiflu to corner the global market. The company has valued its claim at $308-$430 million. GSK is defending the case.

GSK chief executive Dr JP Garnier said that production of Relenza was increasing due to a surge in demand: "The ramp-up of our production is going to really have a major effect next year and even more the year after, but we start from a very low base in 2005."

Biota made an operating loss of $24.8 million for last year, but is confident it will be successful in its litigation against GSK. Mediation broke down this week and a directional court hearing is scheduled for Friday.

[BIOTABULL]

That post was originally posted by me on STOCKHOUSE.COM bullboard, when the stock was only 44 cents.

http://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards/viewmessage.asp?no=9273219&t=0&all=0&TableID=2

Today it is around A$1.50. As predicted the shares have gone up dramatically since then. Now I look forward to a much higher stock price in 2006.

Price has gone from 45 cents in July 2005 to a peak of A$2.40 in October 2005 (..though today around A$1.50). Some years back it did reach $9.00-.. and I will not be surprised in the least if it recovered that level in future. This is just my opinion, please do your own due diligence!

http://www.biota.com.au/

[BIOTABULL]

Anyhow, the important and now interesting scenario is that there is room in the market for another serious contender (against Roche's Tamiflu). tHE SITUATION will likely become exciting If/When there is flu pandemic, and Biota is almost ready with a newly developed long acting drug...
Here is some info.:-

Relenza Lawsuit Boosted by UK Flu Stockpiling

MELBOURNE, Australia, March 4 /PRNewswire/ -- Biota Holdings Limited
(ASX: BTA) announced that the recent decision by the UK Government to
stockpile nearly GBP200 million of flu antivirals again overlooked
Relenza(TM), and further demonstrates the potential that Biota's antiviral
Relenza would have if properly supported by its licensee GlaxoSmithKline
(GSK). It also boosts the potential market for a new generation of flu drugs,
which are currently in development by Biota.
On 1 March, the UK Government indicated its intention to purchase
14.6 million units of oseltamivir (Tamiflu(TM)) over two years. The decision
was in response to growing fears about bird flu and the increasing risk of a
global flu pandemic.
"The UK stockpiling decision reinforces our claim against GSK for damages
associated with their failure to support Relenza," said Biota CEO, Peter
Molloy. "Relenza is an effective drug that was first to market, but was
shelved by Biota's marketing partner despite their commitment to support the
product."
Biota licensed zanamivir exclusively to Glaxo, now GSK, which launched the
drug in 1999 under the tradename Relenza. However, after its merger with
SmithKlineBeecham in 2000, GSK curtailed support for Biota's drug and the
product's market share declined dramatically. Relenza currently holds less
than 1% of the world market for flu antivirals. Both Relenza and its
competitor, Tamiflu, are considered to be effective against avian flu strains
and both have been recommended by health authorities for use in the management
of pandemic influenza.
In May 2004, Biota filed a lawsuit against GSK in the Supreme Court of
Victoria in Australia, claiming that their failure to support Relenza caused
Biota substantial losses, especially in the face of the now growing flu
antivirals market. Following a preliminary discovery phase in the second half
of 2004, Biota filed its amended Statement of Claim in December 2004. In
January 2005, the Court laid down a timetable for the suit, stipulating
completion of full discovery by the end of June 2005 and mediation in November
2005. If the case is not settled by mediation, a trial could follow during
2006.
In conjunction with Sankyo Co Ltd of Japan, Biota is also developing a
second generation of flu antivirals called LANI (longacting neuraminidase
inhibitors) for the treatment and prevention of influenza. Recently, Biota
received a US$5.6 million grant from the US National Institutes of Health
(NIH) to accelerate the development of LANI because of the drug's perceived
potential as a first line of defence against bird flu and other potential
pandemic flu strains. The UK stockpiling decision should boost the prospects
for LANI.
"The UK order significantly increases the size of the global market for
flu antivirals," said Biota CEO, Peter Molloy. "It augurs well for the
prospects of our new long-acting flu drugs."
The world market for the flu antivirals was previously estimated by Biota
at approximately A$500 million (GBP200 million) pa. The UK order suggests the
potential world market could be much larger.

About Biota
Biota is a world-leading antiviral drug discovery company with its
headquarters in Melbourne, Australia. Biota was responsible for zanamivir, a
neuraminidase inhibitor, subsequently launched by GSK as Relenza in 1999 for
the treatment of influenza. In partnership with Sankyo, Biota is developing
second generation flu antivirals (LANI or Long Acting Neuraminidase
Inhibitors), and has discovery and development programs aimed at therapies for
diseases caused by Human Rhinovirus (common cold), RSV (Respiratory Syncytial
Virus), HIV, and hepatitis C. In partnership with Thermo Electron, Biota also
markets the FLU OIA(R) diagnostics range for the rapid detection of influenza.


SOURCE Biota Holdings Limited

[BIOTABULL]

Tamiflu found ineffective in bird flu treatment
Updated Wed. Dec. 21 2005 11:08 PM ET

CTV.ca News Staff

The drug most of the world is counting on to prevent an avian flu pandemic may not be a failsafe defence, according to a New England Journal of Medicine report.

The authors say they have found evidence the H5N1 virus can mutate into a form unaffected by Tamiflu -- rendering the world's ever-growing stockpiles of the drug ineffective if the mutated strain were to spread.

According to the study, completed by Dr. Menno de Jong at the Hospital for Tropical Diseases in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, four out of eight avian flu patients who were given the medication died despite the treatment.

This has many health care experts worried, since many predict bird flu will be the world's next major pandemic.

Toronto infectious disease consultant Dr. Neil Rau says the study has serious implications.

"Here you have the optimal situations, the right dose, the right duration, the right timing and administration and yet you have a bad outcome. That's not a good thing to see," Rau told CTV News.

The drug's maker, Swiss firm Roche AG, said it's trying to figure out why it doesn't work in some patients, and is looking at whether severe cases should be given a higher dose or longer duration of treatment.

Another article in the same journal cautions doctors against prescribing the drug for patients to stockpile. It says if not administered in a large enough dose, the chemical structure of Tamiflu could allow the virus to develop a resistance to the treatment.

Dr. Allison McGeer thinks this should remind doctors and researchers to keep looking for new solutions.

"There's one other drug, GlaxoSmithKline's Relenza, that is licensed that people are starting to talk about stockpiling," said McGeer, a Toronto infectious disease microbiologist. "There are also some other drugs in development. It really tells us that we need to move those drugs in development forward as fast as possible."

While drugs such as Tamiflu don't cure bird flu, experts hope they will help reduce its severity if taken early enough.

Bird flu has not yet appeared in North America and there is no proof that it can spread from person to person. But officials worry that if the virus mutates, it could become as contagious as the annual flu, but much more deadly.

Since 2004, the H5N1 virus has killed at least 71 people in Asia. According to figures updated by the World Health Organization on Dec. 16, there have been at least 139 human cases, including 95 this year alone.

More than 200 companies and governments have asked Roche if they can help manufacture Tamiflu. So far, Roche has allowed Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines to produce the drug without paying compensation. Tamiflu is not patent protected in those countries.

Counterfeits

Now, consumers are starting to have to deal with questions about Tamiflu's authenticity as well as its efficacy.

The Canadian Press report that British authorities have identified 18 websites -- including two in Canada -- selling what they believe are counterfeit products sold under the Tamiflu brand.

But Health Canada spokeswoman Jirina Vlk said the drug supplied by the Canadian sites in question is, in fact, Tamiflu, and not counterfeit medication.

"(British authorities) may think it's counterfeit because it may not meet their labelling (standards), but they're legitimate Roche products," she said.

The other sites the British authorities flagged are based in the U.S., Britain, Switzerland, Bahrain, the Channel Island of Jersey, Cyprus, Singapore and Malta.

The British Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency launched the investigation over concerns that a shortage of the drug in the public market has fueled sales of bogus Tamiflu over the Internet. Test purchases were made from the sites and the drugs are being tested to determine if they are really Tamiflu.

U.S. customs officials recently seized a shipment of counterfeit Tamiflu in San Francisco.

Vlk said even though the Canadian drugs were not counterfeits, would-be Tamiflu buyers should beware.

"Buying drugs from Internet pharmacies that do not provide a street address and telephone number can pose serious concerns. Patients have no way of knowing where the company is located, where it gets its drugs, what is in the drugs, and how to reach the pharmacy if there is a problem,'' she said.

[BIOTABULL]

Lucrative Biota deal 16dec05
SHARES in Biota Holdings rose more that 4 per cent yesterday on news of a deal with U.S. firm MedImmune Inc to develop a compound to prevent and treat respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection.

The agreement with the U.S. company will give Biota $6.63 million immediately and reimburse future research and development expenses on the collaborative RSV program.

Biota says it could receive up to $US107.5 million based on certain clinical and regulatory milestones and a royalty on sales of a future licensed product brought to market by MedImmune.

Biota will have exclusive marketing rights in Australia, New Zealand, China, South-East Asia, India and Pakistan for potential products developed as a result of the agreement.

[BIOTABULL]

2005 sees pandemic threat explode on public radar; planning traction ensues

TORONTO (CP) - Though she'd been steeped in pandemic flu response scenarios for the last quarter century, Dr. Susan Tamblyn was taken aback when U.S. President George W. Bush touched off a tidal wave of concern in late September over the threat of a flu pandemic.

For years, a too-small cadre of public health stalwarts like Tamblyn had been working diligently to devise plans aimed at helping countries, provinces, cities or towns weather an inevitable but unpredictable flu pandemic that can be expected to cause illness, death and social disruption.

And since the H5N1 avian flu virus started rampaging across Southeast Asia in late 2003, worried public health officials and infectious disease experts had been doing their best to raise the alarm. The inevitable might well be unfolding in the dying poultry flocks, they warned.

The world seemed unimpressed. That is until a vicious tempest named Katrina taught a humbled American administration how little it could do to mitigate the crushing impact of Mother Nature's wrath.

Suddenly the experts' warning - there's no greater potential natural disaster than a bad flu pandemic - began to resonate with frightening clarity.

And just about then, migratory birds began to die on the fringes of Europe, stricken by the same virus that had sickened nearly 120 people in four Asian countries, killing roughly half those who fell ill. A month later, the world's most populous country, China, admitted it had joined the list of nations - now numbering five - with confirmed human cases of H5N1 infection.


UN Secretary General Kofi Annan appointed a pandemic czar, Dr. David Nabarro, to co-ordinate preparedness efforts across the United Nations' vast network. Bush convened an emergency meeting of vaccine and antiviral drug makers at the White House. Canada's health minister, Ujjal Dosanjh, gathered counterparts from about 30 developed and developing countries to plot strategy.


Priorities for 2006 including drawing the public into discussions about who will have first access to antiviral drugs and later vaccine. Urging the business community to prepare contingency plans. Diversifying the cache of antiviral drugs to add Relenza to the stores of Tamiflu.

http://www.brandonsun.com/story.php?story_id=14494

[BIOTABULL]

Biota Confirms Relenza Stockpiling in Germany
Biota Announces the Appointment of New CFO
Reported Relenza Stockpiling in Germany
ASX Appendix 3B, 5 August 2005
Biota Values Claim against GSK at $308 to $430 million, 27 July 2005
Date Change for Damages Filing in GSK Suit, 21 July 2005
Biota Bulletin, Issue 7, July 2005
Biota unveils RSV candidate drugs
Biota & Aerogen sign flu development agreement
Biota Bulletin, Issue 6, March 2005
Biota boosted by UK flu stockpiling
Biota releases half year results
Firm timetable for Biota litigation against GSK, 02 Feb 05

[BIOTABULL]

The year ahead looks particularly exciting for BIOTA Holdings Ltd., because:
[1] New long acting flu drug (LANI) developments progress with Sankyo Japan.

[2] Positive outcome of suit against Glaxo GSK.

[3] Expectation of vicious influenza pandemic in near future!


http://www.biota.com.au/investors/newsletters/index.html

[BIOTABULL]

Moderator: BIOTABULL
Assistants: None
Created: 1/5/2006 7:48:02 AM

A Flu Pandemic is very likely to erupt in the near future - it's well overdue given the flu cycles of the last century. Several years ago, BIOTA Holdings Ltd of Australia [BTA] developed the highly effective anti-viral drug Relenza (Zanamavir). But their licensing partners GSK (Glaxo..) let them down, and instead the drug Tamiflu developed by Roche has succeeded phenomenally in the world-wide market. GSK are being sued by BTA for compensation. A recent (March 2005) announcement by the British government that they have ordered stockpile of Tamiflu for around GBP 200 Million (US$400 million) reflects the huge market potential for anti-flu drugs.

Meanwhile Relenza, which currently accounts for less than 1% of the world anti-flu drug, has been refined and developed further by BTA and is proven to act against Bird Flu virus as well.. In my opinion BTA will benefit immensely from the forthcoming vicious influenza pandemic! Currently the stock is trading @ AUD$0.44 (having a reached a speculative high of AUD$9.00 in 2001). By 2006 I feel, in my opinion it should be trading at much higher levels again.

www.biota.au.com