Ayala Pharmaceuticals Inc (ADXS)

[ignatiusrielly35]

It would make more sense to inquire about Avastin's market share, as opposed to DNDN's flawed product.

[Bourbon_on_my_cornflakes]

WRONG! "If Amgen or anyone else offered to buy this company for $15 a share they would be laughed out of the Advaxis board room."

WRONG! the BOD would be petrified because they could not be sure of surviving such an offer. They would be speed dialing a big investment bank to prepare a defense, and calling every white knight they could think of. Quite frankly, I am not sure they could fight off a $15 offer.

[ignatiusrielly35]

I'm sure their software labels it as a buy or sell, but unless they are doing that for each individual trade it is probably essentially a guess. The computerized trading by the mm's move very quickly so it is very difficult to tell what trade was at the bid and what was at the ask. Or in between. They can also disguise the nature of the trades fairly easily, such as by lowering the ask to the bid? Is that a sell or a buy? Alot of trades fall into a grey area.

[Gantor50]

Another 100K block. These are obviously prearranged. Somebody is moving around shares. No way to really know what it means (yet).

[fbg0316]

Mpreorder, why don't you ask some of the former executives of Dendreon if your assumption that all ADXS constructs will get 50% of the market share of all cancer cases for our targeted caners is a conservative assumption.

[JB-22]

Well why do they have the “B” over the green bar and “S” over the red indicator. It’s at the top not saying it’s correct but that is what they’re indicating.

[ignatiusrielly35]

You and me both, Gantor. I hope they got millions of shares and made alot of money. Just get it the "f" over with already.

[shortridge3w]

The same thing happened yesterday for 147k.

[ignatiusrielly35]

"IHub has it listed as a sell." What do you mean? On the chart the bar is red? That doesn't mean anything. The only way to know with any reasonable certainty is to see it live on Level II. The next best is to compare it to the surrounding trades after-the-fact. It is particularly hard to figure out when a large trade does not come in below or above the market.

[Gantor50]

At this point I am just hoping the entities that drove this into the ground declare mission accomplished, deposit their $10s of Millions in profits in the bank, and are now looking to turn the car around and start driving North to profit in the other direction.

I'll happily ride along as the bug on the windshield.

[JB-22]

Hope it’s a buy so I’ll take Fidelity’s word anyway. Agree amazing how the price doesn’t move because of these prearranged buy/sells. Hope it ends soon

[Gantor50]

Fidelity shows it as a buy. Either way 100+K should result in a bigger move (either way) if it was a normal market trade. During the attack I watched them take it down .60 cents on less than 75K shares.

[fbg0316]

Maybe short covering?

[JB-22]

IHub has it listed as a sell

[Easymoneyman00]

Somethings fishy for sure!

[gajj]

who said?

[Easymoneyman00]

Was that a buy for 100,000 shares?

[ignatiusrielly35]

What are these big fish up to, with these pre-negotiated, off-market trades?

[Gantor50]

100+K block just traded, changed the PPS a penny.

[fbg0316]

Despite the more optimistic side of all of us yearning to get back to $30 or more, I believe if Amgen or anyone put in a tender offer to acquire ADXS for $15 tomorrow, it would easily be accepted by both our Board and our majority of investors, because frankly ADXS has had four years under the recapitalized company to get us to a higher base that would set the stage for a buyout at a higher value but has failed. I don't think our investor base is willing to risk another four years that could be a repeat of the last four in which investors poured more than $200 million into the company at an average $12 price only to see their investment fall to the present level. Some key investors have already bailed such as Broadfin, Pictet and T Rowe.

So our interim-CEO is an M&A guy and he will be the interim CEO for the foreseeable future. Putting the pieces together I bet there's a good chance we never get a permanent CEO and that Lombardo's task is two-fold: 1) first srike a large licensing deal on Europe and/or HER2 and/or HOT to get our valuation up, then 2) sell the company outright say at a 100% premium to the higher base valuation following whatever deal(s) he strikes.

[ignatiusrielly35]

Not sure I'm following you on that one.

"70% ownership in runner up stocks tend to shrink quickly with dilution as value goes up."

[Calcumad]

70% ownership in runner up stocks tend to shrink quickly with dilution as value goes up. I too believe in your suggested valuation but it is not easy to hang on

[attilathehunt]

sell the farm for 15 bills and move on...Im guessing those 15 bills are Hamilton's

[ignatiusrielly35]

"70% ownership by tutes is a good starting point for shorting, especially when some tutes are hedgies. Why clear them of ulterior motives?"

Some may have purchased in order to short. But the majority were riding the wave, a red hot stock in a red hot immuno sector in a raging biotech market. It's easy to question that judgment in hindsight, but at the time everyone was believing AXS should be valued at at least $1.5 billion, based on Aduro alone, and many other similar companies valued in the billions. I, for one, believe ADXS is worth $1.5b today.

[Calcumad]

Yes scott, I always claimed there are posters who can post rings around other posters and objections just fall short. The problem is you never know who the the true prophet is. Never use posts as trading guidelines

[ignatiusrielly35]

Not sure I agree, Bourbon. When the tutes bought in at 19, including Adage, the stock still had alot of upward momentum. I would say that speculators and traders were more to blame for the rise to 30; upward manipulation was not really even necessary. I think some of the tutes, including Adage, decided to short their own shares when the news leaked about the impending FDA hold. Plus, of course, many naked shorts, mainly hedgies and mm's. I still believe that this whole short attack started in earnest when certain parties got notice of the FDA hold (or the possibility of it, meaning the fact of the patient death) well in advance. Of course there was shorting prior to that; it's a clinical biotech. But the hold is what prompted this long and abusive short scheme.

[maplestory]

Yep. We sucker into justice & china & Dan Oconor & pumpers.

Now only hope left is Mr. Lombardo.

[Calcumad]

70% ownership by tutes is a good starting point for sorting, especially when some tutes are hedgies
Why clear them of ulterior motives?

[scottmiyadi]

Yup,for those that don't remember or weren't around, there was a poster who had garnered great following and fanfare and was POUNDING table running banner type posting after posting declaring "20 bagger was imminent, tutes trying to steal our shares, don't let them," etc.; I believe this stayed many a LTSH (I know I'm guilty of not taking anything off table) from taking profits during the run to $30+.

[Bourbon_on_my_cornflakes]

Never said it was "all" manipulation. Tutes bought as high as $19. But I would bet from there to $30 it was mostly manipulation, as it fell like a stone from that height. Certainly was an extra $11 of profit for shorts.

Feel sorry for anyone who got suckered in at that price. They got nuked.

[ignatiusrielly35]

The run to 30 was not all manipulation. Tutes ownership went from 10% to 70% during that period.

[ignatiusrielly35]

I agree, the short interest has declined. The question is by how much, and is the number accurate.

[Bourbon_on_my_cornflakes]

This stock was manipulated both ways....the rise to $30 was fake, as is the current suppression at $4. Neither reflects what a normal market would have valued the Company at. By jacking it up with J&E (most likely a hedge fund employee) stoking enthusiasm with legit tech info while warning us not to sell as it tanked and the short position was built at the highest price. Then the numerous assaults, including knowing about the hold ahead of time, but ultimately knowing that they had the stock or warrants to ride it down and cover while all along keeping the long position. Never seen anything played like this in 30 years of investing.

I am hoping the desperate situation of the company has management focused on getting the stock price up, or just getting the Company sold, so this endless price destruction can finally end and longs can get a decent return.

[shortridge3w]

I guess the shorts covered 1/3.

[maplestory]

I agree. 9/30 short interest should be around 7 million

[fbg0316]

Seeing the huge uptick in volume after the 15th coupled with Adage' s sale arguably to use to cover a short position, I expect we will see a decrease in short interest for the period ending Sept 30.

[ignatiusrielly35]

Gantor, it certainly does seem as if the short cabal has always expected to be able to get out of their position, perhaps with an offering that never materialized, resulting in a prolonged suppression due to an inability to find sufficient shares elsewhere. Could also be Adage, fully hedged by warrants and/or options, as you suggest. But I get the feeling that if they are not hedged then something has to "give" sometime soon. And I'm betting that if Lombo can remove dilution from the equation at least through the EMA process, this may be a breaking point.

[fbg0316]

The original post from Dew was not talking about HER2 with PETX.

[mypekeispooped]

"So our PETX deal isn't going to happen now? No USDA approval?" He is talking about PETX.

[ignatiusrielly35]

Evidence that perhaps Kroll started shorting when ADXS decided to let Adage in instead.

[sandman44]

17,600 hours worked a month and sitting below $5 while the EMPLOYEES COLLECT A BIG PAYCHECK ???? Anybody else see SOMETHING WRONG WITH THIS PICTURE ???????? ADXS WOW

[Gantor50]

Tin, I don't really disagree in principle. Even if events weren't so clean and linear there definitely appears to have been a planning and implementation aspect to this (IMO).

But I see it as 2 stages. Stage 1 was the Build (late 2014 - June 2015). Stage 2 was the Protection of that position and drive towards monetizing it (June 2015 - Current day).

[sandman44]

COME ON $6.58 !!!!! ADXS

[tinfoillurker]

It didn't start in June 2015, it started in December 2014. Look closely, the "suppression" was here all along, it just wasn't evident during the run to $30 because euphoria outweighed the damping effect.

Look closely at the short interest from Dec 2014 through Mar 2014 especially. It's a real eye opener. Particularly in Dec and Jan before Pearson, there is no explanation for the enormous jumps in short interest. Also compare November 2014 with December 2014.

(Yeah, I said I wasn't posting anymore. I feel this point is important enough to do so anyway.)

[Gantor50]

Mpreorder, all I can say is that nothing would surprise me at this point. I can't logically explain what I have watched over the last 3 years.

[Gantor50]

I mentioned in my last post to FBG about the supreme, almost odd, level of confidence that the suppressing entity appeared to have demonstrated on an almost 2 1/2 run that was mostly a straight down slope.

It was the kind of confidence expressed by an entity that almost knew with absolute conviction they couldn't lose and had 0% chance of failure.

The kind of conviction expressed say by an entity who knew they were playing with a free money position insured by a boatload of warrants? Perhaps even some access to a certain level of insight on what moves ADXS was or wasn't likely to make?

Again I don't have answers to my questions, but the circumstances here since 2015 certainly raise many for me.

[ignatiusrielly35]

Exactly, HER2 was put on hold due to the high cost-benefit of pursuing it. It has not even really begun yet, and so it is a long way off and will cost alot of money. So they de-prioritized it. But if a BP wants to license it and fund all development, ADXS will do that. Or sell it.

[huskercatman123]

Trying to wrap my brain around the HER-2 EU patent that was filed last year?

http://ir.advaxis.com/press-releases/detail/1197/advaxis-expands-intellectual-property-for-lm-technology

[longx]

Thanks very much for the info.
I'm new to ADXS :)

[mpreorder]

The only trials with HER2 with results are the canine osteosarcoma trials, which were successful and should lead to approval later this year.

There was a trial planned that is listed as "not recruiting" for HER2 expressing solid tumors on clinicaltrials.gov. So to my knowledge there haven't been any trials in humans using HER2.
Lombardo seems to be selling or licensing this construct to raise capital for other uses.