Ayala Pharmaceuticals Inc (ADXS)

[Gantor50]

FBG, we may now share a similar belief today about what the company should consider, but we each got here taking very different roads.

Unlike you I am (was) not afraid of dilution that was used to finance organic growth of the company into a mostly stand alone entity. I understood what DOC was trying to do. But his plan was DOA once the short cartel drove the PPS below $10 and never let it up from there. Whatever mistakes DOC made, none of them justified the ultra low PPS and constant suppression mode that started in June of 2015 and never ended, extending all the way thru last week.

For example you keep blaming DOC for the collapse after Amgen because he gave a direct placement to Fidelity. But you continue to confuse the symptom with the cause. The attack on the PPS was already over a year old by then.

I am certain they would have taken the PPS back down after Amgen regardless. Why? Because somebody shorted a big chunk of shares around June 2015 at $20ish. Whoever that entity is, they appear to have been determined...and oddly enough...supremely confident they were going to be successful driving the PPS into the ground and being able to lock in massive profits on their short position at some point.

[gajj]

who said AT-014 will not be approved?

[mpreorder]

I had a thought while reading this. What if the forced selling of our constructs isn't just the result of the manipulation. What if it is the intended effect of it?
Conspiracy theory I know, but it sheds a different light on who may be behind all this manipulation. Instead of some hedge fund, it's some BP.

[mpreorder]

The Company's cash balance declined to $15.01 million as on July 31, 2017, from $112.75 million at the close of books on October 31, 2016.

Errrr...dont' think this is accurate...lol

[longx]

If the program were that good, ADXS would be planning additional trials, not looking to out-license it.

If HER2 trials weren't that good, should Lombardo simply discard the program rather than talking licensing it out? Perhaps you would agree that a typical man with age in the 70s would care more of building his legacy rather than on financial gain by lying.

I'm buying a bunch more ADXS shares at this level.

[ignatiusrielly35]

Gantor, you and I agree on one issue: I would rather have the company sold than to issue a single share at this price. Where I disagree is regarding the likely effect of Lombardo raising enough non-dilutive cash to get us through EMA. The possibility of dilution is inhibiting some tutes from buying in and taking a shot at a huge profit upon EMA approval. At the same time, the short cabal is taking advantage of the possibility of dilution by easily manipulating the stock in a low demand environment. Plus, they hope that any dilution would cause some to sell out, which is their goal. Alternatively, the big shorts may hope to get a piece of any offering in order to cover.

Re the next short number, I'm not convinced that the cabal will not somehow manipulate the number to make it appear that there is less covering than there really has been. For example, shorting to themselves or a conspirator, in a no-risk position.

[ignatiusrielly35]

Fbg, back at you. My disagreement with your view is not personal. To clarify, I have conceded that the one significant mistake that DOC made was not recognizing that the pps suppression made his "retain rights and issue shares" strategy untenable, even if it was the correct strategy when the stock was much higher. However, that does not excuse, and neither does it warrant, the grossly exaggerated decline in share price, which is the result of manipulation, and nothing more. The manipulation is malicious and not warranted. And the current pps is completely unwarranted. The way out of this is simple: Lombardo must either bring in non-dilutive cash or sell the company. If they dilute now, then a significant part of the company will have been effectively stolen. It would be better to sell out than to dilute, in my opinion. But I am confident that Lombardo will raise enough cash to get through the EMA process, which is key.

[fbg0316]

Good post Gantor. Yes, given the erosion of the share price, higher cash burn and now solid late stage pipeline, it may be the best outcome to sell the company outeight now unless they can strike a EU deal with significant upfront non dillutive cash.

[Gantor50]

Iggy obviously I agree, but again this brings us back to...

- Who and why? Even those 2 answers may be less important than when does it end or what is the endgame? I am hoping we potentially get more clarity from the 10/10 short report.

- In my opinion the Amgen deal was a very solid collaboration, although I wish DOC had gotten cash instead of the commitment to purchase $30M in stock. But since that Amgen deal (including best ever GOG results, SPA, etc, etc) was all manipulated away as nothing, even with $150M-$160M in the war chest at the time, I'm not sure we can assume any deal announced by Lombardo will significantly increase the PPS. I sincerely hope I am wrong.

- In theory I have always agreed with DOC's go it alone strategy vs breaking up and selling off pieces of franchises. The company and technology valuation would be far greater eventually if they successfully made it as a stand alone entity. But interestingly enough the relentless attack on the PPS seems to have now prevented that. The company needs cash and will almost be forced to accept less now instead of more later (if successful).

- IMO DOC's vision of a future $6B valuation for ADXS was probably legit...but only IF they succeeded as a stand alone. Breaking it up seems to lessen the overall value. My belief is they may never recover from the damage done to them by taking away their currency (PPS level) to finance their own organic growth. It's why I believe the ADXS BOD should consider a sale of the company now, before they break it up into blocks.

[Easymoneyman00]

Dew, so what your saying is ADXS's Her2 trials were bad and that's why we're shelving it for now? That it's not because we need to conserve "CASH" at this time? Boy I read it differently than you. I thought we shelved HER2 because we needed to preserve cash for our lead construct so we wouldn't have to dilute down here at these suppressed share pricing? You said if they were good they would be planning new trials to go ahead with Her2 ? Was Lombardo then lying to all of us? Please explain your remarks here. Your saying just the opposite of our CEO. Do you know more than us here? Are trials not that good on HER2? Are we in a big lie here? Is Lombardo not telling us the truth? Inquirying minds would like to know! Dew too many here respect your opinions and to say that our Her2 trials weren't that good or we would be planning more trials is quite a testimonial to our platform and that Lombardo isn't telling us the whole truth with Her2 trials. Please explain why you think that.

[fbg0316]

He's not taking about PETX, which still expects approval this year. He's talking about ADXS licensing HER2 human construct which is different than the vet construct.

[fbg0316]

Blue, agreed, Lombardo seems to have a great M&A background, just what ADXS needs at this juncture.

[blueyedcatch]

While I have to agree with on that,I still say that you harp on the same talking points to the point of making true longs sick to their stomach`s. Dan`s gone man,,please move on to something positive for our new CEO`s sake. Let`s give him the fair shake he deserves as he rights the pasts missteps to achieve our ROI. You have a large presence here and it could be used for good instead of what you`re doing on here for the last year and a half. I,and many other longs really want to see you adjust your posts to highlight the promising future now,rather than continuing to rehash the past negatives,,,time for you to change back to the poster for Adxs that you used to be because the new CEO is a totally different man than our last. Oh,and please stop with the low ball buyout nonsense,,forget the buyout talk for right now,,talk about the ridiculously low market cap. Minus cash and the stock`s valuing Adxs`s everything for around 2 bucks a share..Even you understand how much of a joke that is,and you should be telling everyone you know to buy down here,because this share price won`t be here for long,,it might be gone this week. We should be getting more analyst upgrades soon,as well as getting news of new institutional ownership.

[Easymoneyman00]

So our PETX deal isn't going to happen now? No USDA approval? I thought those trials were going good? Her2 was going to cost too much money to continue trial is what I think. I believe Lombardo is setting Her2 aside for now so we can focus on our lead construct AXAL. Since it's our leading candidate to be approved before anything else. I think it was the smartest thing our CEO has done since becoming the interm CEO. Preserving cash for our most needed trials to date that he feels will bring in revenues that will allow us to not DILUTE and settle for mediocrity in our share pricing. Those trials were going good it's not like we quit because they were not giving good results we just need the cash right now for our closest approved vaccine which is AXAL . Trust me we actually have someone at the helm that is fiscally responsible and actually wants to add value to ADXS rather than dilute us into oblivion! Quote: If the trials were that good we would be planning additional trials instead of licensing it out? Dew I totally disagree with you assumption on our Her2 trials. I totally agree with Lombardo on backing off on so many trials in our pipeline! It's very exspensive and we need our cash to bring our lead vaccine to EMA approval. Everyone is entitled to there opinion but preserving capital at this time is a must unless your short and want DILUTION. Lombardo has ruffled some feathers lately and a couple of entities are not one bit too happy about it! Dan made some promises he wasn't able to fulfill and Lombardo isn't going to help them either! Manipulation is well thought out on there part but Lombardo is doing what he can to create shareholder value inspite of these attacks! We in a battle and this battle won't quit until we get some kinda of approval on AXAL .

[fbg0316]

Two companies, CTMX and ADXS, with two near identical deals with Amgen. One of these companies is back above its 2015 high while the other is sitting near a multi year low. The company sitting near a multi year low is a Phase III company while the company sitting at a multi year high and valued over 4x the Phase III company is only a Phase I company.

Fact or fiction? Hard to believe it is fact.

[fbg0316]

Igantius, you seem like an articulate smart person. What's surprising to me is that you never once acknowledge mis-steps by management and that there have been problems with the way that the company was managed under O'Connor that itself contributed to shorts taking such an interest in manipulating ADXS. At the end of the day the CEO is responsible for the performance of the company, which is why O'Connor is no longer with ADXS. It's simplistic and naive to constantly claim the only reason for the poor stock performance is manipulation.

[fbg0316]

Raja, he's saying sell it for $15 share price.

[ignatiusrielly35]

Allow me to answer for FBG. It's because DOC did an offering after Amgen. You see, 5% dilution causes a 70% decline in stock value. Hogwash. The correct answer: manipulation.

[ignatiusrielly35]

Good guess, Keith. I too believe that this continued attack is to find shares. They probably have wanted to get an offering to cover for a while now, if not all along.

[runcaly]

Dont know if posted already
3.October 2017
Earnings Review and Free Research Report: Advaxis Reported its Q3 FY17 Results

LONDON, UK / ACCESSWIRE / October 3, 2017 / Pro-Trader Daily has just published a free post-earnings coverage on Advaxis, Inc. (NASDAQ: ADXS), which can be viewed by registering at http://protraderdaily.com/optin/?symbol=ADXS, following the Company's disclosure of its financial results on September 11, 2017, for the third quarter fiscal 2017 (Q3 FY17). The Princeton, New Jersey-based Company posted revenues during the reported quarter. Our daily stock reports are accessible for free, and with those to look forward today you also will be signing up for a complimentary member's account at:

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At Pro-TD, we make it our mission to bring you news that matter about the stock you follow. Today, our research desk covers a blog story on ADXS. With the links below you can directly download the report of your stock of interest free of charge at:

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Earnings Reviewed

In Q3 FY17, Advaxis' total revenues were $3.05 million, while it did not record any revenue for the three months ended July 31, 2016. The Company's Q3 FY17 recognized revenues were primarily related to the collaboration agreement with Amgen related to amortization of the upfront fees received.

The late-stage biotechnology Company reported net loss of $32.63 million, or $0.80 loss per diluted share, during Q3 FY17 compared to net loss of $16.49 million, or $0.48 loss per diluted share, in Q3 FY16. The increase in the net loss during the reported quarter was largely due to increased research and development (R&D) expenses.

Operating Metrics

During the reported period, Advaxis spent $18.06 million on R&D costs compared to $6.42 million incurred in Q3 FY16. The increase in R&D cost during the reported quarter was largely due to the increase in clinical trial expense and technical operation support, primarily related to HPV-franchise.

The Company's general and administrative (G&A) expense increased to $18.06 million during Q3 FY17 from $6.42 million in Q3 FY16, the difference in G&A expense during the two-comparable periods is primarily attributed to stock and cash compensation expense for past employees, of which approximately $9.5 million was a non-cash expense. The Company posted loss from operations of $32.81 million in Q3 FY17 compared to loss from operations of $16.57 million in Q3 FY16.

Cash Flow & Balance Sheet

During the year ended July 31, 2017, the Company's net cash used in operating activities was $58.53 million compared to net cash used by operating activities of $31.14 million in the year-ago same period. The Company's cash balance declined to $15.01 million as on July 31, 2017, from $112.75 million at the close of books on October 31, 2016. Furthermore, the Company has an accumulated deficit of $277.88 million as on July 31, 2017, compared to the accumulated deficit of $207.71 million as on October 31, 2016.

Change of Guard

On July 06, 2017, the company announced Anthony (Tony) Lombardo as the interim Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of the company, after the then CEO Daniel J. O'Connor announced his resignation from the Company and its Board of Directors.

Stock Performance

At the close of trading session on Monday, October 02, 2017, Advaxis' stock price jumped 7.18% to end the day at $4.48. A total volume of 828.71 thousand shares were exchanged during the session, which was above the 3-month average volume of 680.59 thousand shares. At Monday's closing price, the stock's net capitalization stands at $187.44 million.

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[pitching51]

CTMX and Amgen collaboration (different product but same payment structure). Someone tell me how CTMX is valued at $1B

[hdwrsft]

Here's the current ground-hog day nightmare:

The market continues to rage higher and this goes nowhere....

..like standing wide-eyed outside, knee-deep in the snow, while looking thru a frosty plate-glass window at the peeps inside who avoided the ground-hog day nightmare, party like rock-stars.

[raja48185]

European pipe dream before year end and sell the farm for 15 billion ?

That would be a great way to move on after so many years

Can I get that scenario in my dream tonight?

[island man]

Lombardo says no dilution so from the horse in charge we're good till 2019.
Now this european pipe dream better happen before year end.I still like the sell the farm for 15 bills and move on......

[Keithz]

My guess.....broken promises of another offering....

[ignatiusrielly35]

That is the billion dollar question. What is their real motivation? All clinical biotechs get shorted and manipulated, but this one is a virtual vendetta. Amazing and protracted. It's really the manipulation that is the culprit, not the shorting. If it was just the shorting then the short interest would keep going up, but it really hasn't, all the way down from the 20's. And if the shorts were just betting on an end fail there really is no compelling reason to keep manipulating it down. There is something more to the story that we don't know, and may never know.

[maplestory]

Sleeping with enemies. Dan & Adage & Hedges. imo

[Gantor50]

Mostly agreed. ADXS being under $500 million for so long certainly helped their ability to manipulate the stock. However you do have to wonder what it is about this specific company and this specific stock that seems to have attracted such a coordinated and extended attack? While true that ADXS made some mistakes, that still doesn't fully explain what we have experienced here for 2 1/2 years.

[ignatiusrielly35]

CTMX does not have a short cartel fixated on it. Yet. That is the real difference.

[tx_farmer]

I see it happening similar to the end of the movie 'Training Day" where Denzel goes off and proclaims to his peons " I am King Kong aint nobody got shyte on me" (to the same level but in the corporate world and down played just a bit ). Same ending though

[Keithz]

Exactly, it just doesn't add up.......

[mypekeispooped]

From what I can see, they only have two P1 trials at the moment. We should be far ahead of their PPS.

[fbg0316]

It appears CTMX had a $700 million valuation before this deal, now the valuation will be over $900 million.

Looking at it from a slightly different perspective, CTMX's deal with Amgen is very similar to our deal with Amgen but our terms were actually slightly better. The impact of our Amgen deal was short-lived on ADXS' valuation due to Dan's post deal dilution and implicit helping the shorts. By contrast, the afterhours appreciation of CTMX following their Amgen deal is an increase of more than $200 million to its market cap, so this single deal CTMX struck with Amgen that is nearly identical to our deal with Amgen is adding incremental value to CTMX's market value in an amount MORE THAN ADXS' ENTIRE COMPANY MARKET VALUE.

Lesson learned over the last four years as an ADXS investor...management matters and poor management can destroy shareholder value significantly even if clinical trials are progressing positively. Hoping for better days ahead with Lombardo.

[attilathehunt]

Maybe that was why Dan was let go....He most likely went to BOD and asked for more dilution and they realized WTF and decided enough is enough...time for major partner(s) and they anointed Lombardo.

[attilathehunt]

Thank you for the reply.

I'm very positive on Lombardo. I think in the end he will surprise us all. I also don't think we will hear any significant news on EU submission and/or EU partner until November some time.

[maplestory]

CTMX up 35% today

[fbg0316]

Dew, what do you think about HOT? Do you think it's likely Amgen could step and an do a similar deal with ADXS on HOT as the NEO deal?

[CATTDOGG12347]

Kind of similar but Amgen is paying for the whole trial with Advaxis plus we kept manufacturing.

[DewDiligence]

ADXS got similar—but slightly better—financial terms in the NEO deal than CTMX got in the bi-specific-mAb collaboration with AMGN announced today:

http://ir.cytomx.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=254195&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2304423

Under the terms of the agreement, Amgen and CytomX will co-develop a Probody T-cell engaging bispecific against EGFRxCD3 with CytomX leading early development. Amgen will lead later development and commercialization with global late-stage development costs shared between the two companies.

Amgen will make an upfront payment of $40 million and purchase $20 million of CytomX common stock. CytomX will be eligible to receive up to $455 million in development, regulatory and commercial milestones for the EGFR program.

It’s curious how similar the financial terms of the two deals are.

[CATTDOGG12347]

We didn’t give a dang thing up in the Sellas deal though, they came to us and asked us to produce a vaccine with our platform and we get 400 million in milestone payments for it plus 10 percent of their profits. That’s a no brained!

[fbg0316]

Amgen deal also included $40 million upfront cash and another $25 million equity investment. The Sellas deal was less attractive as ADXS didn't get anything upfront, like all of Dan's other "regional" deals.

[CATTDOGG12347]

The Amgen deal was a true partnership. 500 million in milestone payments with Advaxis getting 10%royalties. They also keep manufacturing which could be extremely profitable for the company. To top it all off the whole trial is paid for. That was a pretty good deal!

I like the Sellas deal as well!

[CATTDOGG12347]

AA very early into P3 with anal cancer type results.

[CATTDOGG12347]

P3 mirroring GOG results or besting them since AXAL is being used much earlier first line and AA to go with it.

[Bourbon_on_my_cornflakes]

So what would be the order of test results that would get this stock moving up?
When can we expect new data?
Anyone got a feeling for the timelines here?

[CATTDOGG12347]

It was smart to sell MINE, it’s the more awkward cumbersome ugly twin of HOT. HOT can be given off the shelf without sampling a tumor and will probably be even more effective than MINE. No need to hoard duplicate less effective tech. We should have learned that with the first gen vaccines. Aduro got that right away.

[CATTDOGG12347]

I don’t think the irons are cold. Everyone needs to remember we probably still own about half of the return on mine as we retained manufacturing, get somewhere around 10 percent royalties and the trial paid for. Not too bad IMO.
We will also get milestones to the tune of 400 million from sellas plus 10% of the profits off that.
I agree we need to make deals for all the first gen vaccines. Sell those to Checkpoint companies. Hopefully they keep HOT or get a few hundred million up front for it along with profit sharing.

[raja48185]

Too many irons in the fire since a long time and now the fire is no longer hot and the irons are getting cold.

When a company has raised capital to the tune of 100 of millions and has no revenue coming in, how can they be involved in so many trials over such a long period of time, not realizing that they will run out of money before making any money.

So where do they find the coal to light up a new fire (pun intended)- raise more money, or sell HER2 or get a partner who will hopefully make a nice upfront payment with EU approval in mind.

[ignatiusrielly35]

Lombardo's primary value will be to make deals. Period. I'm sure he is more than capable of overseeing the team engaged in the other issues, such as regulatory processes, which are in good hands, in my opinion.

[ignatiusrielly35]

Not necessarily so. It could have been, and reportedly was, a business decision based on prioritizing, an attempt to streamline the development program.