Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[north40000]

Good suggestion for corp. You and I had that experience that you related a few years ago.

[djohn]

Hi corp,
Since you own many shares I would encourage you to attend the ASM. You can't say that you listen to everything unless you do attend. After the initial presentation the mic goes off for the broadcasted part of the meeting and the meeting is over for the people listening online.
The floor then opens to the shareholders who attend and they can ask any board member or management member any questions. I think every board member except one was there and every top management member was there and many middle management members.
You don't just sit there and look them in the eyes.
You interact! Talk to them, ask questions, see how they react to your questions.
How much do you know about the board members other than reading their Bio's?
How much do you know about Dan Hart, Drew Brennan, Nick Furguson other than their Bio's on the webpage. I talked to Nick Furguson head of IT. This guy knows what he is doing and what a motivated guy. I think everyone can tell by the excellent quality of Avids webpage. My conversation with Nick Green was invaluable in my decision to continue my investment and add more at these lower prices.

IMO, If you would attend a ASM I think it would give you a whole new understanding of the company, the people at the company, what motivates them and the company culture. Things you can't get reading listening to what available online.

[swg_tdr]

corporalagarn, thanks for sharing.

[Preciouslife1]

HGEN: Looks like that high volume selling at the end of the
day was because of a rebalancing. A whole bunch of stocks tanked starting at 3:50pm EST. HGEN went from 1.1 million volume to 3 million volume in 10 minutes with 895,277 shares being sold right at 4:00pm EST.

[djohn]

A couple hundred thousand shares trade in the last few minutes again today and almost everyday in the last few months.
Can anyone explain how this happens?
Are the shares really traded all day and then go through as one large block at the end of the day?

[djohn]

Good deduction. lol

https://ir.avidbio.com/news-releases/news-release-details/avid-bioservices-announces-expansion-viral-vector-development

Oct 24 2021 seven months ago

"The new facility’s analytical and process development laboratories are expected to come online more rapidly, with the potential to be operational within six-to-eight months."

[Protector]

4OurRetirement, yes I added one phrase 3min after the initial post with the 12,96$ remark.

[Protector]

eb0783, probably because part of it would be opened before the main production part was going to be opened.

Actually a smart move to start the preparatory work early so that if the facility is read and you can immediately start doing all the production line stuff and FDA line approvals.

AIMO

[eb0783]

It looks like 11 of them are specific to the new viral vector facility. We are ramping up.

[cheynew]

30 jobs listed up from 18 a couple of weeks ago.

https://avidbio.applicantpro.com/jobs/

[4OurRetirement]

Approaching New HighOfDay! Happy/Safe Memorial Weekend. glta,eom.

[4OurRetirement]

Let's Close OVER $14.00 And Trigger BreakOut AfterHours...

Giving More Reason To Celebrate This Memorial Weekend!

Anyone Up For Grilled Bear "Short"Ribs

Glta $CDMO Bulls, Watchers, & StockHOLDERS!
Be Safe & Have A Relaxing 3 Day Weekend...

[4OurRetirement]

Institutional Shares (Long) 74,761,137=121.08% (ex13D/G) glta.eom.

[4OurRetirement]

Up & Over $14! glta,eom.

[Protector]

EndoTarget, well your broker isn't in a hurry when he triggers a margin call :)

I only had one in my live, by a mistake on my behalf, and I had 48H to solve it myself before the Prime Broker would solve it with the Executive Broker and just sell whatever they saw fit.

And I think that 48H was a lot of leeway thanks to an otherwise perfect account situation.

By the way: We needed to break through 12,96$ to start the beginning of elasticity :)

AIMO

[4OurRetirement]

Hoping You Got More Then $13.49/Share! Glta,eom.

[4OurRetirement]

Let's Jump OVER $14.00 And Land Running! glta,eom.

[EndoTarget]

MM are cautious.

Raising cent by cent and with really low volume avoiding too brutal spike but just wait for the elastic effect... It's gonna be spectacular.

[ElSid18]

IF the S&P breaks 3810 all bets are off ....I doubt that will happen !!
So, for CDMO,13.00 is a great entry point for all longs...technically I see us approaching
22.00 before a corrective pull-back....the next CC should give us answers regarding the plant build-out as well as future contract projections....GLTA...

[EndoTarget]

Will raise my ASK to 23

[cheynew]

Short interest dropped 450K

CDMO Short Interest
SETTLEMENT DATE SHORT INTEREST AVG. DAILY SHARE VOLUME DAYS TO COVER
05/13/2022 5,690,114 902,350 6.305884
04/29/2022 6,140,786 598,982 10.252038
04/14/2022 5,372,582 537,012 10.004585
03/31/2022 5,187,666 536,756 9.66485
03/15/2022 5,459,629 590,291 9.249047
02/28/2022 5,825,799 526,026 11.075116
02/15/2022 6,025,704 582,399 10.34635
01/31/2022 5,902,381 698,778 8.446718
01/14/2022 5,487,777 624,520 8.787192
12/31/2021 5,858,206 718,834 8.149595

[Protector]

EndoTarget, in such occasions just put them their with the AON flag set (all or nothing) and if you are aligned with the current PPS they will be gone quickly).

AIMO

Oops the message is from yesterday noon already. We closed at 12,75$ so I figure your problem is solved.

[EndoTarget]

or 35.18

[EndoTarget]

Not filled...
Too bad!
Let's try tomorrow @19

[EndoTarget]

I need a buyer for 91,000@13.49 need to cover margin call.

Anyone?

[EndoTarget]

Put some at 14.47
No one interested...

[4OurRetirement]

Recent DownGAP Still Needs Filled: $19.50~$19.40 From Apr-06-2022…

Glta $CDMO Bulls, Watchers, & StockHOLDERS
link:
http://www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/analysis.pl?symb=CDMO&cobrand=&mode=stock

[horselover45]

Has anyone noticed that the short only has gone down the last two days from 10 to 9 yesterday and now it is 8.
Seems that some shorts are covering.

[djohn]

Yes, disregard. My mistake. That's what I get for doing something before coffee.

[Protector]

djohn, don't confuse the cat.

Knowing the whereabouts of shares is not the same as owning them all myself!

I don't smoke (at all) :)

AIMO

[north40000]

ASH is an oncology related convention. ASM is a shareholder meeting. Do you really want to compare attendance at those meetings or does ASH represent a typo I should disregard?

[corporalagarn]

I agree that there is little retail ownership here, but I would say it's in the 3%-5% range, 2-3m shares.

I don't see attendance at the ASM as a good barometer. If you're right on retail ownership then I own about 20% of total retail shares. I have never attended an ASM and never really considered going. I read and listen into everything that I believe matters. I never felt the need to look into the eyes of management as I don't believe it would help me personally on my investment. Touring the facility would be nice I guess but I'm certainly not qualified to know what I'm looking at.

The exact amount of retails shares doesn't really matter, but it is certainly low.

[djohn]

So, you're telling me an individual with $2 million invested in a small cap company wouldn't attend that company's ASM?
What are you smoking?
Face it, there is little retail interest in Avid and no evidence there is.

[Protector]

djohn, I don't think ASM attendance of CDMO now can be compared with attendance when still PPHM. Other type of business. I have never attended a CDMO ASM, yet I still have my shares. But OK, that is only a single example.

probably COVID will also have played a role, not sure.

I wouldn't be surprised that on this board, all together, we have at least 3%. I know the whereabouts of near 1%. And I know that there are a few 100K+ position posting here on this board.

AIMO

[swg_tdr]

thanks, guys. Interesting stories. As to shorting, any margin acct held shares can be lent by broker (fine print) -- and shorts carry voting privilege, too. (But shorter has to pay you the dividend due).

[eb0783]

I would have been there with you in 2021 but there was still too much covid around and self-focused anti-maskers/anti-vaxers for me to want to fly yet.

[djohn]

I have attended the last 5 ASM and retail attendance has decreased as II ownership has increased. EB remember the enormous retail turn out at the 2019 ASH You, Me and one other couple. 2021 top that at 1. Just Me.
Stephanie, being the liaison between retail investors and Avid management/BOD received zero questions in advance from retail investors for management or the BOD at the 2021 ASH. If I remember she said that was very odd compared to prior years. Attendance at ASM, no retail investors engaging, the low number is people on this board and percent owned by II's, certainly points to very low retail investment in Avid.
But that's my opinion

[cheynew]

Looks like AIM bought over 170K this morning. II now 120.46% up from 120.20% yesterday.

2022-05-24 NP AIM VARIABLE INSURANCE FUNDS (INVESCO VARIABLE INSURANCE FUNDS) - Invesco Oppenheimer V.I. Main Street Small Cap Fund Series II 341,070 53.84 6,948 7.39

[Protector]

jbainseky, I cant answer for "those so enamored with %II" but I can answer for myself as one of them.

The II% did NOT remain the same. It was in constant evolution since 18 Months. II trading with II? So some IIs take a loss to give other IIs an entry? I don't think so, well not massively anyway. If that would be the case we would see it in the list of IIs, it would continuously dramatically change. And it doesn't. It changes at it always did. A little in a little out.

And why would NEW IIs get in anyway if there was a fundamental problem with CDMO. Oh, yes, because Nick is going to sell us out, right!

AIMO

[Protector]

djohn, certainly not.

I know the whereabouts of about 1% of shares in retailers hands. And that is just me without all of you on this board and without employees, etc.

If Nick counts for a share count in case he received an acquisition offer then whatever game is played falls as a card house even BEFORE he decides to bring the offer to shareholders or not. because all shorts will have to be reversed.

So it will all depend on whether Nick wants to be taken over at a law price or not, but ONE SINGLE SIGNED letter to Nick, by one share holder, attracting his attention on the problem would FORCE him to do so. If not he becomes liable.

AIMO

[Protector]

EndoTarget, and NO company will take over MORE then the issued outstanding shares.

So if we have (say) 60Milj issued outstanding shares and there are 72 to 80Milj share in rotation due to short selling and 'lending on lending', then when Nick bring an acquisition offer he CANNOT bring it for more then 60Milj shares when he devides the price by the number of shares.

So one can see the problem! An off, say 60Mil, would mean 1$ per share. However, to get that dollar EVERY lender must cancel the related lending contract. That means every shorter must close its position an BUY the shares. But below 1$ that will be impossible. So they will need to up the price for REAL shareholders to sell. hence the price will go UP above 1$. Then Nick cannot sell at 1$ a share when the price at market would be 1.5$. etc, etc, etc.

AIMO

[ArchieK]

I have a good chunk of my financial future wrapped up here so while I haven't flown to CA I read, investigate, research, connect and try to understand every aspect of this company, industry and their leaders that I can. You all help me so much, thank you. Also, a post like yours EB makes me feel far less crazy. Knowing there's at least two of us makes me realize I won't be lonely in my pup tent on the street one day. LOL

[eb0783]

I peaked at over 100,000 shares (0.3% of CDMO at that time), all in a number of family accounts, but slowly peeled over 80% of that off last year between $17 and $26. CDMO is now my 2nd largest holding behind HGEN. ALL my companies except CDMO are now in the red…. So I’m not real happy but that goes with owning biotech, which is the large majority of mine. There are many times when you just sit and wait for a number of years

That being said, I can see that you are much more diversified than I am…..much wiser. I still invest like a 30 year old….not much diversity and going for home runs instead of singles. That probably is not good for an over-70 year old.

On the other hand, I try to attend the ASMs of my largest holdings to “look into their eyes,” watch body language, listen to sidebars, and often take tours of their facilities. I got to tour CDMO facilities (Myford) in 2015 (before Myford was certified), 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019 (new PD lab). ). Also, I obviously listen to any webcast, look at every presentation, and read all the research on my companies that you and the others bring to the boards. Thank you ALL very much! That all keeps me very close to my investments. So, I get to feel comfortable with my long waits for profit. I know you do the same thing.

[EndoTarget]

I agree.
1% would be only around 600,000 shares.

[ArchieK]

I'm with you 100% on there being a small percentage of ownership left in the hands of retail but 200-300k is not even remotely close to the number.

[djohn]

I'm sorry but IMO there is very little retail left in CDMO.
One percent would be pushing it.

[ArchieK]

There is NO WAY those guesses are remotely close to correct, I'm sorry...

Not posting my number but it makes me SURE they're wrong.

[Preciouslife1]

Look at the biotech indices YTD:

^IXIC
-24.54%

^NBI
-23.90%

^SPSIBI
-38.58%

THE BIOTECH ROUT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE BOARD AND DEVASTATING TO MANY COMPANIES WHOM ARE DOING WELL AND PROSPERING WITH EARNINGS AND BACKLOGS, SO WHICH ARE NOW OVERSOLD AND GREAT PROSPECTS GOING FORWARD IMHO ... THIS GREAT LIL BURGEONING, GROWING CDMO WILL REBOUND UNLESS UNFORESEEN CIRCUMSTANCES, DERAIL THE GROWTH PROSPECTS ... THE CC WILL BRING GREAT REVELATION HOPEFULLY!

[ElSid18]

Volume looks interesting this morning.....someone wants shares and is bucking
the market to get them..............this is what building a bottom looks like !!
Could we get to 1,000,000 today? GLTA...

[jbainseky]

Why does to those so enamored with %II think institutions do not trade and that means illiquidity? Fund managers are always changing the composition of funds and what they own. A %II that remains fairly constant simply shows II are trading with II.

FFTT

JBAIN