Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[north40000]

A few press releases about identity of early or late stage customers would help, I think

[westjtter]

There does not appear to be too much correlation between how the overall market(or the Russell 2000 for that matter) trades or that of our beloved little Avid. Right now, especially today, there does not appear to be too much conviction either way on the stock based on the anemic volume, and whether the share price is up $.25 or down $.25 does not really matter.

What does matter is for this management team to get back on track, get the financials restated and then start working on building confidence with investors on this stock as currently there is very little promotional activity taking place that I am aware of!!!

At the same time, we are really just one or two announcements away for this stock to really start heading higher again....maybe not to the heights we were at a couple of years ago, but I think we have a shot at $15 or $16 in a year or two if things start falling into place(which I still believe they will)!

So c'mon Nick, lets get this show moving again!!!

[r622102675]

We will be looking at the Russell rebalancing soon...r

[north40000]

Reported that JNJ is in talks to acquire SWAV; current share price of SWAV is ~ $320/share, CDMO is ~ $6.80/share.

[eb0783]

I might add that there are other weight loss drugs out there and they are all in high demand. Lilly recently, actually, ran an ad asking people who are not diabetics to please not try to get the drug. I've never heard a company ask the world NOT to buy so much of their drug. They can't make enough of it. The point is, CDMO could be a target for the same reason CTLT was, and maybe for a similar price/multiple.

[r622102675]

CTLT was providing the manufacturing component for Novo Nordisk on the injectible portion of their weight loss drug... CTLT just so happened to have the proverbial bucket at the foot of their bed when they hitched their wagon to Novo... Smart move by Novo now controlling the production and eliminating the potential problem of farming it out to a third party when you have a blockbuster drug like they do...imao...r

[tech0200]

Maybe we will be bought like Catalent was. They had some screw ups with their quality control. EPS last quarter were -7.18 which comes to 1.4 billion loss. They had lost over 700M two or three quarters earlier. Haven't looked at their other quarters but it would be hard to imagine that they were profitable. How did Catalent end up being bought for 16.5 billions? It appears that a CDMO is worth a lot more to an acquiring big pharma than to any and all investors or another bigger CDMO.

We ended up with a new loan that has a higher interest rate and will cost us tens of millions more over the life of the loan. The 50 or so more millions in interest should lower the buying price by the same amount and not by 500M or a Billion.

[horselover45]

I find it interesting that the headline for many days of lawyers looking for customers on Schwab Streetsmart edge has disappeared.
I take it as a good sign but then just my personal opinion.

[ElSid18]

4 day trading week........................GLTA....

[ArchieK]

Gosh, I'm happy to wait if they do it RIGHT this time. Speedily correcting big flubs doesn't usually work well...some thoughtfulness, legal/financial advice from top sources, etc.....work better! I think the damage is done, so a client ($) is all that will get us going again. IMHO. GLTA.

[north40000]

Repeat of yesterday—some time same place. Drop in share price to $6.62.

[westjtter]

Legally there is no issue, but I do not understand why the company is taking this much time to restate their financials. This is not complicated unless there is something we do not know and they are somehow checking out some legal avenues??? According to what management has offered to date, there does not appear to be any legal malfeance and just something the company(legal/financial) missed on their convertible terms and so therefore had to negotiate a new financing agreement and of course have a legal obligation to restate the financials.

They have also indicated that once the financials are restated they will have the conference call but not sure if there will be questions allowed or if it will be more of a statement of what happened without going into detail???

As an optimist, I am hoping that this delay in filing the restated financials is to wait as long as possible and perhaps secure some additional contracts based on FDA approval of one or more of their clients drug candidates. So they start with the bad(mess up and $10 mil in additional financing costs) and then end with announcement of new contracts that should allow them to start manufacturing some of their backlog in contracts and perhaps allow them to increase their revenue projections going forward. This would be a good thing...yes???

Now I could be way off here, but like I said...trying to be optimistic!!!

[Papa Dawg]

If CDMO has the same attorney from Coley who handled the previous class action matter, they are in outstanding hands. Koji Fukumra (sp?)
I would rate him 5 stars of out 5.

Just IMO

[4OurRetirement]

I Agree, But At Least Am Confident That...

Any Buyout Price Would Be up, Up, UP from Here!

On The Other hand, Investors Need To Keep In Mind That
When You Consider The Previous Stock Splits And Years We Have Invested,
It Belittles The Potential Buyout By One Of Our Customers?!?!?!

All Older StockHOLDERS Should Have Gained More From Their Investments!

But, For New Investors, This Stock Could Represent A Quick Double Or Triple
From Current PPS!

Since Avid Is No Longer A Bio Pharmaceutical With Those Investment Risks,
But MerelyA Bio Manufacturer, Not To Mention, Bavi, Beta Bodies, Etc........
Seem To Have Disappeared With Oncologie/OncXerna Therapeutics,
StockHOLDERS Should No Longer Hold Their Breathes
For Astronomic PPS Buyout prices.

On The Other Hand, Since It Appear Oncologie/OncXerna Therapeutics,
May Have Gone Out Of Business, AND, I Think There Was A Footnote In The
Lease/Sale(?) Of Bavituximab. et al, That May Come In To Play
"IF" Oncologie/OncXerna Therapeutics Has Actually Go out Of Business...

Either Way, Avid's State Of The Art BioManufacturing Facility Capabilities
Is Worth MUCH, MUCH MORE Than The Currently Shorted PPS.

And Those Shorters Were Probably Mainly The Original Senior Note Investors!

ANY Potential BuyOut Would Be MUCH Higher Than Today's PPS!

Yet, If The Contract With Oncologie/OncXerna Therapeutics Had A Footnote
That Allowed For The Return Of The Rights To Bavi, Beta Bodies, Etc,. Etc.
Under Circumstances That Oncologie/OncXerna Therapeutics Failed To Do Certain Things...,
Well, Going Out Of Business Should Return All Those Assets To Avid.
IF ALL that Were True, There Could Feasibly Still Be A Chance For A Greatly Substantially
BuyOut Price Then Currently Seems Feasible.

Hard To Say What May Be Going On Behind Closed Doors!

I For One Am Still Not Selling!!!

Glta Bulls, Watchers, & StockHOLDERS!!!

[djohn]

I also believe that may be the direction we are headed. I only thing that can stop it is a PR saying we signed a major contract with a large Pharma company.
I think wenn Joseph Carleone CoB bought shares at a little under $10 he was putting a floor in for anyone considering. I think if it comes it will be at a 25-40% premium. Look how much our top guys get in a "change of control" situation. It on the last proxy

[horselover45]

Have a hard time understanding how with Nicks solid reputation over the years that such a mess as this happened.
Have to believe that all this is happening to force a sale at a rediculous low price.

[djohn]

These attorneys are just ambulance chasers looking for their next slip and fall IMO
If you called them a said you slipped on the sidewalk in Tustin they would be your best friend

[djohn]

The real question is how much will our stellar manufacturing and regulatory compliance reputation be tarnished by our inept financial and legal follies?
If I was going to place a drug with Avid for development or late stage manufacturing I would want to be assured that the ineptness has been purged from the system. All the way to the top!

[horselover45]

Started falling at 2:27 pm right after this lawyer Hagen Berman put out their release really making Avid look bad.
Really trying to look out for Avid investors.

[north40000]

A shame CDMO couldn’t hold its $7+ position in light of record close of the major indices today

[north40000]

I still wonder whether Eastern Capital/Ken Dart had anything to with what you describe. Money has meant a lot to him, historically.

[westjtter]

Well it seems that the stock market is shrugging off the Avid convertible screw up as the stock has significantly strengthened since the March 6th fall from $8.78 back down into the $5's before holding in the low $6 range. Now since then, we are back over $7 and the stock is trading amazingly well🤞....much better than I thought.

Although one wonders where the stock would be trading at had this screw up not happened...would we be pushing $10 plus??? Even higher??? Well pure speculation, so will leave it at that.

As for how things are going in Tustin, it seems like business as usual...there were several congratulatory comments from senior Avid staff(including Mark Z and Nick G) towards one of their engineers who completed the LA marathon over the week-end....surely if things were dire, top management would not be spending time on Linked in!?

However in the end, at the very least, the new convertible will cost Avid in the range of $10 mil in additional financing costs over the life of the old convertible financing which would have matured in 2026. One can again only speculate what position Avid would have been in at that point and where the share price would have been when the older convertible financing matured. Would the share price be high enough to cause some of the debt to be converted to shares? I think not, but you never know...perhaps by 2026 Avid will be running at full capacity??? Again pure speculation. But if they were, the loan could have easily been paid off or renegotiated at much better terms.

So bottom line is that this new convertible will cost us at least $10 mil, and then the question is, will the shares go up enough in price to cause the debt to be converted to shares, or will we(Avid) be stuck with higher interest rates for the entire term of the new financing??? Your guess is as good as mine here.

Finally apparently Nick will be having a CC once the financials have been restated and I for one will be very curious as to exactly how much he will share about this debacle on the convertible and then having the loan called. Something does not make sense here....I cannot believe that this term was missed by our legal team(inside and outside)....I am pretty certain that we were set up by the lenders of the original financing and they were set to win either way.

If the stock went up high enough...they convert and win big....if things were taking longer to fill capacity resulting in slow share price growth, well they had the opportunity to short the hell out of the stock and force the price down(which did happen) and then call the loan when the time was ripe or right based on this term which everyone seemed to have missed...that is everyone from Avid's team anyway.

So the originators of the initial financing won big....made big profits on shorting the stock(again only what I surmise to make sense) and then were able to call the loan and get their principle and interest back knowing it would put Avid in a precarious situation!

And that kids, is how small companies get screwed by savvy financiers!!! Of course this is all in my opinion only.

So Nick....how will you explain this away or what kind of spin will your Finance dept put on this whole mess up???? Inquiring shareholders want to know!!!

All I have left to say, is that I still believe the company will succeed, but the road got a little longer and the share price will never get to where it once was. Hopefully when capacity starts being filled, we will eventually again hit the low teens?????

[north40000]

4 shares traded at 8:55 a.m., after you posted. Ask price is $7.40, bid is $7.07.

[jbainseky]

first time in a long time, no pre-market trades so far. Doesn't bode well for the PPS today.

[ElSid18]

With better than 100% institutional ownership, non-compliance
with NASDAQ is existentially inconceivable....I hope the May 20th
clock is of no consequence to Nick and team however crummy the
report..............GLTA........

[jbainseky]

Interesting that the reason for restatement does not include a different interest rate, unless that is somehow included/implied by the classification as a long-term liabilities issue. I would be willing to bet the holder(s) of the 2026 notes were short CDMO.

FFTT
JBAIN

[DrRocker57]

This company can’t do anything right? Cant file required documents, Geez.

This is not a new or additional screw up on top of the convertible note default but a direct consequence from it. Not giving the company a pass here but let's not make things sound worse than they are.

The company previously reported in its Form 12b-25 filed with the SEC on March 12, 2024 that the company was unable to file the Form 10-Q within the prescribed time period due to the need to restate and file certain prior period financial statements as a result of the continued classification of the company’s 1.250% Exchangeable Senior Notes due 2026 as long-term liabilities following an event of default, as more fully described in the company’s Current Report on Form 8-K filed with the SEC on March 12, 2024.

Under Nasdaq rules, the company has 60 calendar days from the receipt of the Notice, or until May 20, 2024, to submit a plan to regain compliance with the Rule.

[jbainseky]

Looks like one MM is not at work today!

[Threes]

Even with the cluster of ineptitude the stock is moving up.
Somewhere in this pile of dung they are seeing diamonds.
I still contend the 7 or so late stage drugs in the pipeline we have reason for optimism.

[Jerald1]

This company can’t do anything right? Cant file required documents, Geez.

[4OurRetirement]

"Pre-market stock trading in the United States commonly...

runs between 4:00 a.m. and 9:30 a.m. EST and after-hours trading occurs from 4:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m. EST."

link:

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/extended_trading.asp

[cheynew]

Sorry, I didn’t find it. There was a 242K trade around 5 pm yesterday.

[north40000]

Can you, 4OurR or Gwen confirm a trade of ~ 130,000 CDMO shares that appeared on my TD Ameritrade screen around 3:00 a.m. Eastern Time this morning? I don’t recall the share price.

[4OurRetirement]

Can $CDMO Touch $7 Before Close? Glta, eom.

[jbainseky]

Enhanze might be part of the play, but it doesn't look like any of their pipeline is part of our near-term backlog since nothing seems to filed. Nick was pretty clear filings have taken place.

[north40000]

Stockrafter post #8410, and read all posts from that date to today for other links and discussion. A few may be worthless, like cubflyer here.

[jbainseky]

Link?

[north40000]

Take a look at HALO’s pipeline. There are some slides, including a slide from the gov’t, that appeared on the IHub HALO board yesterday, I think. Enhanze at work among clients.

[jbainseky]

Relatively low volume with several large trades indicates MM accumulating for someone and transferring the shares in the large trades. Goes back to earlier this year when the PPS stopped for quite a while in this area. Solid base being formed.

FFTT
JBAIN

[djohn]

There you have it, from someone who flies broken planes for a living

[Cubflyer1946]

Jewel? More like Cubic Zirconia!

[horselover45]

Just curios if we get some news and clarification this week on what the hell is happening in our "jewel"
That was quite a big sell Friday PM.

[westjtter]

Well one of the reasons for todays volume was that it was triple witching day....always get plenty of volume!

And while I am at it and still holding my breath...apparently once the financials are revised/restated to reflect the increased interest charges, the company will still have a CC....which I think is a real positive!

Should not be too long!

[ElSid18]

FOR ONCE, it looks like the buyers were back today....I bought a few thousand shares
at this closing price back in mid November......we wouldn't be here if not for the "screwup"
over the agreement !! GLTA...hoping for some follow-through Monday.........

[cheynew]

The last regular trade was over 1.3 mil shares.

Date/Time Price Shares Exch/Mkt
03/15/2024 16:01:33 EDT P 6.29 791 NDD
03/15/2024 16:01:25 EDT P 6.29 5020 NDD
03/15/2024 16:01:17 EDT P 6.29 368 NDD
03/15/2024 16:00:36 EDT I 6.29 5 NDD
03/15/2024 16:00:36 EDT P 6.29 936 NDD
03/15/2024 16:00:36 EDT P 6.29 4357 NDD
03/15/2024 16:00:36 EDT P 6.29 2752 NDD
03/15/2024 16:00:36 EDT P 6.29 18887 NDD
03/15/2024 16:00:36 EDT P 6.29 4330 NDD
03/15/2024 16:00:36 EDT P 6.29 11323 NDD
03/15/2024 16:00:36 EDT I 6.29 6 NDD
03/15/2024 16:00:11 EDT I 6.29 2 NDD
03/15/2024 16:00:10 EDT I 6.29 2 NDD
03/15/2024 16:00:07 EDT W 6.29 2035 NDD
03/15/2024 16:00:07 EDT W 6.29 3520 NDD
03/15/2024 16:00:01 EDT T 6.29 533 NDD
03/15/2024 16:00:00 EDT I 6.29 1 NDD
03/15/2024 16:00:00 EDT X 6.29 1331702

[djohn]

We’ve traded around 26 million shares in the last 7 trading sessions and no 13g filed?
Over 40% of the outstanding shares?

[north40000]

And I thought the vet bills and subsequent urgent care bills for imaging our cat with a cat hospital stay of 3 days and nights were high. She was morose and ate nothing for quite a few days. Some surgery and appetite stimulating cream applied to her ears did wonders. Our cat is back home now happily eating/snacking and sleeping away. The vets at those 2 locations know what they’re doing.

[r622102675]

Got the hospital charge submitted for my wife’s biopsy for her lung mass(pet scan was indeterminate)…altogether $50k..wow…r

[Preciouslife1]

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/how-protect-yourself-forgotten-disease-coming-across-border

[Threes]

I don't think they are looking that hard for new business. I think they have there eggs in the basket of several late stage drugs they have in the pipeline.
I believe the insider buys were not to just show a good faith with shareholders.