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IT is something of a metallurgical mystery, but there are now two types of gold - hot gold and cold gold.
The hot stuff is found in West Africa and is being sought by a range of Australian explorers.
While the cold stuff is in Australia and the rest of the world and has attracted much less investor interest.
It is not hard to see why the West African gold rush has captured so much attention, given the returns that modern exploration techniques are bringing when applied to the greenstone belts running through Ghana, Burkina Faso, Mali and Ivory Coast.
And the likes of Adamus, Ampella, Azumah, Gryphon, Perseus, West African Resources, Vital Metals and Papillon Resources, to name a few, are on the ground building up resources to mine.
Naturally the share prices of all of them have been hit by the recent fall in gold prices, but in general the hot gold stocks are still travelling better than many of the cold ones.
Out of the hot field I quite like Perseus, mainly active in Ghana and Ivory Coast. Though it still has plenty of exploration upside, Perseus's Central Ashanti gold project in Ghana is on track to start producing gold in the third quarter of this year.
Initially, that mine should churn out about 220,000 ounces a year, scaling up to 300,000 ounces a year from 2013 with an aspirational company target of 450,000 ounces a year when the Tengrela gold project in Ivory Coast comes online.
Drilling in Ghana is aiming to swell gold reserves from 3.3 million ounces to 4 million ounces to extend mine life and significant drilling is planned at Tengrela, making Perseus a buy for gold bulls.
OUR West African roughie is PMI Gold Corporation which yesterday appointed Thomas Amoah its African exploration manager.
With extensive exploration and project development experience -- most recently with Avocet Mining in Burkina Faso -- Thomas will be trying to push through a pre-feasibility study for the company's Ghana Obotan project (resources of 1.2 million ounces) and continue exploration at the nearby Kubi project (348,000 ounces).
It is obviously early days, but with $35 million in the bank from last year's capital raising and another 70km tenement in a highly prospective gold belt, it is a speculative buy.
THE cold gold companies offer much better value, with Lachlan Star earning a speculative buy.
A huge share register with more than 3.2 billion shares is being cleaned up with a 1-for-60 consolidation that will drag the stock out of its penny-dreadful status.
Unlike many small gold companies, its Compania Minera Dayton mine in Chile is producing about 45,000 ounces a year.
As a low-grade/high-tonnage mine, the more processing, the cheaper the gold.
And an 8 million tonne a year crushing plant is running at only a third of that capacity.
Resources already have risen to 1.4 million ounces with more to come and cash costs of US$840 an ounce should fall.
Some of the hidden value in the company include significant tax losses and some drilling for copper and gold .
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/in-the-black/how-gold-fever-runs-hot-and-cold/story-e6frfinf-1226053621277
Redesign of Super Tax
By Neil Charnock
Jun 16 2010 10:35AM
http://www.goldoz.com.au
Europe is not “all better” by a long shot and the net result will be more turmoil and attraction to gold as a safe haven investment. Volatility is the other most important trend this year as we ebb and flow between risk aversion and risk appetite. Each new “revelation” about German and French bank US$958B, or total European bank US$1.6T exposure to the PIGS of Europe will bring on the volatility. UK has exposed themselves to US$370B in loans to just Spain and Ireland.
What many people fail to understand is that Greek debt has been reduced to junk status meaning that banks have to account for these bonds as 100% risk weighted capital. Their reserves have to match Greek exposure on a one for one basis even if the bonds are trading at below par. This means that banks cannot afford to carry Greek debt. The fall out is again like watching a slow motion train wreck.
Gold is going to keep on keeping on – the rally will continue for years to come. All quality gold stocks have extremely bright futures as long as the new world reality is adjusted to. This adjustment is unwilling and painful because it involves difficult decisions which can only really be forced upon governments in the face of disaster.
Quality gold stocks have great ground positions, long mine life or a highly likely potential of such, robust production, low to zero debt and low to medium cash costs. A quality position is built in such a company during periods of depressed share price which precede an era of strong price appreciation. Gold stocks in Australia are in such a period after gradually awakening in response to higher AUD gold prices from late 2005 as seen below.
I will keep this simple because a picture is worth a thousand words. Here is a chart of the emerging producers and I want you to compare the recent price action of the chart above to the one below. To state that there has been a ‘disconnect’ or that this is overdone is an understatement. How long this might last and when we should pounce on this opportunity is what we need to cover for the rest of the article.
This article must therefore include a follow up to “Disaster and Opportunity” which I penned last week. Investors should never miss out on a good opportunity. I do not down play the current damage done to the Australian mining industry by our current government; instead I am providing coverage on the investment angle.
Anglogold Ashanti have come out and stated Australia is on the bottom of their list for investment at present. Morgan Stanley has stated that they have remodelled the BHP Olympic Dam Expansion and believe it will not be viable under the tax. This is at the heart of the real problem as long as this proposal is on the table because investment in mining requires stability and certainty.
This hits new projects on Australian soil more than anything as the uncertainty caused by the delay on the final policy format bites. This does force the banks to look at all funding based on the worst case scenario; which would be the current government re-elected and tax in current format passed into legislation.
Last weeks article delved into the opportunity and this week I want to update investors on the developments. Should this proposal fail then we will have a reversal on the depressed share prices for many companies. The major opportunity lies in depressed prices of gold miners that are fully funded and or currently producing. So what chance is there that this tax proposal will ultimately fail?
Let’s put it this way opportunity has already begun to rise like the phoenix from the disastrous policy proposal blunder made by our current Government here in Australia. I am sincerely a non-partisan writer simply because politics is not my field. I have therefore covered the RSPT here from a viewpoint of support for investors and miners and I make no apology for that.
It would seem the Federal Labor Government is going to be forced to back away from the ill fated super tax proposal and water down their plan. I say this even though they are saying they will “tough it out”. There is talk of raising the ludicrous “fair return” threshold from 6% to above 10%. There is also talk in The Australian newspaper about exemptions of whole sectors of the industry and other major changes as this policy farce disintegrates.
After crunching the numbers the government have quickly realized this means almost certain defeat at the next election. The latest WA opinion poll by Westpoll came in as the worst ever of all time for the Federal Labor Party even though they just pledged to spend billions of dollars on infrastructure in the State.
The primary vote was polled at just 26% compared to the opposition’s 52%. There are calls to get rid of the Prime Minister yet this incredibly misguided proposal has been sanctioned and loudly supported by the Deputy PM Julia Gillard, the Treasurer Wayne Swan and Resources Minister Martin Ferguson. In other words they are all responsible.
The PM did a trip to WA to “attempt to put out the fire” however he did no radio interviews, no public appearance, failed to meet the press or even the Premier. Apparently he has won no support back as a result of the visit which is telling as we attempt to analyse if we will actually have to deal with the tax at all.
Would this really weaken mining in Australia if it went ahead, or is the government right? I was talking to an insider in the oil industry today who told me that there has been no local oil exploration since the introduction of the oil tax. The few petroleum engineers that remain employed are mostly in the universities now and there have been no petroleum geologists coming through the system for years. We have gone from self sufficient in oil to an importer. The answer is yes you bet this would weaken mining and exploration and hurt the economy.
Sovereign risk status
There has been talk that our first class sovereign risk status has been irreparably ruined however I would argue that over time we might look back and consider this an important test. I hope the world will soon see that even a misguided Federal Government does not have the power to over rule or even attempt to destroy mining here in Australia because it is literally a major part of our national backbone.
I visit a major investment network forum that briefly put up an advertisement from the government promoting the RSPT however they removed the advertisement due to the uproar from members. This shows a true democracy in action where a company knocks back the government in support of its own clients.
Did this proposal ever have any hope of being approved? Mining has literally formed and shaped Australia’s history and is a hugely important part of our cultural in economic identity. The industry and many special interest sectors of the population were never going to accept any proposal that would weaken mining.
I would argue that Australia could never become a Hugo Chávez led Venezuela with nationalised industry and mining and this is incredibly strong for our sovereign risk status. Imagine if the political system in Venezuela had allowed the people and miners there to stop Chávez in his tracks. This is part of the fail safe mechanism here in Australia and this essential fact should not be overlooked by the international investment and mining communities. In the meantime they will sit back and await the verdict of the next election. They will quite rightly sit back and see what happens.
Contrarian opportunity, takeover mania
In the meantime at GoldOz we continue to structure our services to suit the situation because we can see the massive opportunity presented here. If the Australian public actually votes back the incumbent political party, which I seriously have to doubt from current indications and trends, then we get takeover mania and all sorts of chaos. We are preparing for this scenario just in case the unthinkable happens.
We have separated the companies with offshore operations and listed the proportional onshore production for all mining stocks. We have been building an offshore data file on the global industry. We also have some more plans and programs that will be announced once they are complete.
If we get rid of the government and or the tax then some of these stocks will play catch up and represent excellent leverage. We will be presenting this opportunity as part of our normal operation but I want to say this – there are some screaming bargains here in our gold sector.
Offshore investors marvel at how cheap some of these producers are compared to North American stocks. When you look at how far the AUD gold price ran correlated to the movement in the ASX listed gold stocks you can not only see the damage the tax proposal has done you can see the glaring opportunity.
The AUD gold price was up 25% from $1200 to $1500 and now we are consolidating up at the $1430 level which is up around 19%. During this same period the larger producers, emerging producers and juniors are down 8%, 11% and 12.5% respectively. Remember many of these companies are unhedged producers with zero debt or low gearing – join up with us now and examine this situation for yourselves.
This divergence between the AUD price of gold, rising price of USD gold and falling Australian gold stocks will not last. I am urging investors to get educated about this so they can book some exceptional profits when statistical normality eventually returns.
Good trading / investing.
Regards,
Neil Charnock
Rio’s Chief Says Mining Tax Puts Half Its Balance Sheet at Risk
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=afLxcXDqDxHg&pos=5
By Shani Raja
May 31 (Bloomberg) -- Rio Tinto Group, the world’s third- largest mining company, said as much as half its balance sheet is threatened by Australia’s plan to boost taxes on resources producers.
The complexity of the proposal for a 40 percent super profits tax on resource companies makes it difficult to assess its costs precisely, Tom Albanese, Rio’s chief executive officer, said in an interview broadcast yesterday on ABC’s “Inside Business.” He said it may amount to more than 50 percent.
“This is half our balance sheet at risk because we have someone now coming in to say, ‘I want to be your silent partner. I want 40 percent of your pretax profits and largely written-off assets,’” Albanese said. The tax has damaged Australia’s reputation overseas and added to sovereign risk, he said.
The government set aside A$38.5 million ($32.6 million) in its May 11 budget to promote an overhaul of the nation’s tax system, including the resources levy. Mining companies oppose the tax, scheduled to take effect in 2012, and have placed full- page advertisements in Australian newspapers to lobby for changes.
Last week, the government said it will run its own advertising campaign to counter the “misinformation.” Treasurer Wayne Swan said in an e-mailed statement yesterday that the super profits tax, or RSPT, wouldn’t be retroactive.
‘Misleading’ Claims
“There has been much comment from mining companies in recent weeks about the supposed ‘retrospectivity’ of the RSPT,” Swan said. “These claims are clearly misleading, as the RSPT will apply to mining profits from 1 July 2012. It does not apply to past profits.”
Rio’s CEO said it was important to reconsider the proposal and that he’s ready to work with Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s government on a fundamentally different approach. The world’s third-largest mining company is already paying almost 35 percent tax plus royalties, and will publish independently audited data on its tax payments later in the week, he said.
“Albanese left no doubt he’s willing to engage on a long- term, workable solution, arguably a process companies like Rio should have been involved in before the tax was announced,” said Tim Schroeders, a fund manager at Pengana Capital Ltd. in Melbourne.
Core Elements
The government “won’t back away” from the core elements of its proposal, Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner told Channel Ten’s “Meet the Press” program yesterday.
Still, Swan told parliament last week that the government was continuing to consult with industry as criticism of his administration’s proposed advertising campaign mounted.
The Shadow Minister for Employment and Workplace Relations, Eric Abetz, yesterday called for a senate inquiry into the government’s handling of its advertising campaign.
“Labor is breaking its own guidelines in order to run a partisan political campaign,” he said in a media release. “This has all the stench of a desperate government facilitating false excuses to run a political campaign at taxpayers’ expense.”
The government’s use of taxpayer money to get its message across is “a scandalous situation,” billionaire businessman Clive Palmer yesterday said on “Meet the Press.” The super-tax proposal itself is also hurting overseas investment and is likely to damage Australian jobs and livelihoods, he said.
‘National Interest’
Rudd told journalists in Melbourne May 29 that the campaign is in the national interest, while Tanner said Australia’s economy could be harmed if misinformation about the tax went unanswered. Wal King, the head of Leighton Holdings Ltd., Australia’s biggest construction company, said builders are also worried about the tax, the Weekend Australian reported May 29. He made the comments in a statement as president of the Australian Constructors Association, the newspaper said.
The mining-tax plan has prompted Rio Tinto to re-evaluate all its projects in Australia, Albanese said in the ABC interview.
“I have said to each of my managers, including during discussions this week while I’ve been in Australia, that every single project in Australia needs to be tested and retested and recalibrated, basically remodeled, on a worst-case tax assumption,” he said.
Minerals Council
The Minerals Council of Australia ran an advertisement on YouTube and began a radio campaign on May 24 against the tax, saying Australian miners will pay a levy of 58 percent, “by far the world’s highest tax on mining.” It compares with the 23 percent paid in Canada, 30 percent in Russia and 33 percent in South Africa, the council said.
Rudd’s government and resources companies are also clashing over the definition of a “super” profit, which the proposed tax sets at returns above the long-term Australian government bond rate of about 6 percent.
Rudd’s Labor party and the Liberal-National opposition coalition led by Tony Abbott are tied in the polls, according to a Newspoll survey of 1,159 people taken between May 14 and 16 and published in the Australian newspaper on May 17. Voter dissatisfaction with Rudd rose to 51 percent, from 40 percent in February, in the lead up to a national ballot that must be called by April.
Rudd would lose an election called now, according to a Herald/Nielsen poll published on May 10.
To contact the reporter on this story: Shani Raja in Sydney at sraja4@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: May 30, 2010 10:01 EDT
$Silver: Bullish price objective per P&F chart: $29.00!!!
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Silver Futures Board:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=13026
Mining boom to drive up interest rates
THE Reserve Bank expects mining investment in Australia to double over the next few years to satisfy Asia's vast appetite for energy and resources.
http://www.perthnow.com.au/business/mining-boom-to-drive-up-interest-rates/story-e6frg2r3-1225833914708
RBA deputy governor Ric Battellino said last night the mining investment would expand to be twice as big as the previous boom.
However, he said the expansion could be at the expense of higher interest rates.
"I don't think it's unreasonable to expect mining investment to rise to 6 per cent of GDP (gross domestic product) over the next few years," Mr Battellino told the Sydney Institute in a question and answer session after his speech.
"That would be about twice as high as it was up to in the previous boom. It's a very big boom."
Mr Battellino addressed the institute after Australian markets closed but the Aussie dollar jumped about 0.5 on his upbeat comments to more than US96.5 before easing later in the evening.
Mr Battellino said a boom began in 2005, was interrupted by the global financial crisis, but had resumed its course and was now attracting strong investment.
"This is again very broad-based across a range of resources, but the core part centres on the large expansion in the iron ore, coal and gas industries," he said.
"It has been, to a large degree, driven by demand for resources by emerging economies, with China being the most significant."
Mr Battellino said demand from China and India was driving a surge in Australia mining that could last more than 15 years.
He said there would not be a lot of room for consumer spending or house building during the next boom.
"There's only so much activity that can take place, and if we want to have all this mining investment and mining output, which is happening, then basically the other part of the economy, for the moment, will have to be restrained somehow. You can't do all these things simultaneously."
Asked how restraint would be applied, Mr Battellino said "through interest rate policy".
He said the Aussie dollar would continue to strengthen on the back of the mining boom, but the rest of the economy would have to be restrained.
"Fundamentally, if the scenario works out the way people think, with all this investment, particularly in the gas industries, there's going to be a huge demand for investment in Australia and a huge demand on resources, which can only be accommodated by a higher exchange rate," he said.
He said inflation was still coming down. "We had that period from the very start of 2005 when inflation started to pick up and by 2007, 2008 inflation pressures here were hitting. Nowhere near to the standards we got during the previous mining boom -- at that stage we were already into double digits."
Burn The Banks
The Daily Reckoning Australia
Baltimore, Maryland - Melbourne, Australia
Friday, 26 February 2010 In This Issue:
From Murray Dawes in St. Kilda:
-- Yesterday we watched the market open up 41 points on the back of a positive lead from the US markets. By 10:30am the high was in and the ASX200 turned down and sold off in a straight line for 100 points closing down 58 points at 4594.
-- Asian markets also came in for a belting with Japan down 2.4% and Hong Kong down 1.5% over the day and the release of Toll Holdings results at Midday only saw an acceleration of the selling pressure with Toll closing the day down 18% after missing earnings expectations by a long shot.
-- An article in the UK Telegraph stated that Greece's Deputy PM had lashed out at Germany over war-time atrocities and accused Italy of cooking its books. This seems like a fairly dumb thing to do when you are hoping that Germany might hand over some cash to help you out of the hole you've dug yourself.
-- But no, instead of grovelling the deputy PM said "They (the Nazis) took away the gold that was in the bank of Greece, and they never gave it back. They shouldn't complain so much about stealing and not being very specific about economic dealings". Nice one.
-- I'm guessing the Germans aren't going to be too impressed by the 'Nazi' reference.
-- The Australian Dollar also came under pressure which points to offshore funds possibly unwinding the carry trade which would have added to the selling pressure here.
-- The most interesting thing I read this week was about the beginnings of capital flight out of Greece. According to the Wall Street Journal, wealthy Greeks are moving their cash out of Greece and sending it offshore due to their fear of increased government scrutiny on assets and the possibility of a run on the banks should Greece be forced to go cap-in-hand to the IMF.
-- $8 Billion Euro has moved out of Greece to accounts abroad since December, which is a substantial chunk of the $30 Billion Euro under management in Greeks private banks.
-- I'm thinking this is probably not a good sign...
-- Also in Greece the general strike has spilled over into violence, with clashes between hooded youths and riot police in Athens. Chants of "burn the banks" were heard. All of this before Greece has even started tightening their belt.
-- In other news during the week we have seen American consumer confidence fall off a cliff and new home sales plummet 11% on the month in the U.S. This fall is due to the end of the $8,000 credit given to home buyers. Sound familiar?
-- This news is not the sign of an economy on the mend. The US markets were hit by this news but recovered later in the week unlike our market which has continued to sell off.
-- Technically, In the ASX200 The downtrend from January appears to be reasserting itself after retracing 50% of the sell-off in the last couple of weeks and this makes the next few weeks price action very important.
ASX200 daily chart
Click on ASX200 daily chart to zoom in
http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/images/20100226asx200chart1.png
-- If you look at the chart you can see our market has been in a long sideways consolidation for the past 5 months. We have had 2 false breaks of either edge of the range; with the most recent being the false break of the 4500 low from early November. This false break has seen a rally back to the midpoint of the range which I call the Point of control of the whole structure at 4700. This is a very important point and is often resistance or support before an attempt to break out of the range.
-- If the market were to turn back up and take out this 4700 area on good volume, you could be confident that the uptrend of the past year had reasserted itself and you could expect a move to the high of the distribution at 4950 and from there potentially a rally to new highs for this uptrend.
-- Conversely, if the market were to continue to sell-off over the next few weeks and then bust through the recent lows around 4464, there is the potential that this could signal the failure of the last 5 months range and also the end of the uptrend that has been in place for the past year.
-- The 10 day/35 day moving average is showing an intermediate downtrend for only the second time since the rally began a year ago. The first time was a false signal but this time may be different.
-- If we do sell-off below 4464 we could see some dramatic panic selling as any new long positions of the past 5 months are cleared out and the long term downtrend of the past few years rears its head. There is no reason why the market couldn't start a downtrend from there that heads towards the lows from March 2008.
-- Fundamentally I believe this is what should ultimately occur and with the news that's floating around at the moment there is no reason why this won't be the case.
-- Where the catalyst will come from to reignite the fear in the market is anyone's guess, but there are so many to choose from now, in my opinion it's only a matter of time.
-- For example the front page of the Wall Street Journal said that "Spain is the real test case for the Euro". With 19% unemployment and a couple of years of negative growth in a row it doesn't take much imagination to see that Spain is in a lot of trouble. The cracks in the Euro are getting bigger and bigger by the day.
-- China is the other big area of concern. Joint research by Holdways and Knight Frank showed the average prices of new homes in urban Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen were up 66%, 68% and 51% respectively in November, from a year earlier. This sounds a lot like a bubble to me. And when it pops Australia is going to hear it loud and clear.
-- The US has a huge problem brewing in their commercial real estate. The Congressional Oversight Panel released a report into "Commercial Real Estate Losses and the Risk to Financial Stability". In it they said that "over the next few years, a wave of commercial real estate loan failures could threaten America's already weakened financial system. Between 2010 and 2014, about $1.4 trillion in commercial real estate loans will reach the end of their terms. Nearly half are at present "underwater". Losses at banks alone could range as high as $200-$300 billion. The stress tests conducted last year for 19 major financial institutions examined their capital reserves only through the end of 2010."
-- "A significant wave of commercial mortgage defaults would trigger economic damage that could touch the lives of nearly every American. Empty office complexes, hotels, and retail stores could lead directly to lost jobs. Foreclosures on apartment complexes could push families out of their residences, even if they had never missed a rent payment. Banks that suffer, or are afraid of suffering, commercial mortgage losses could grow even more reluctant to lend, which could in turn further reduce access to credit for more businesses and families and accelerate a negative economic cycle".
-- When looking at the situation this way it's hard to come up with an argument about how the world is going to muddle through from here without suffering another crisis and another dip back into recession.
-- This rally has always had a time limit on it and we have said over and over again that it was due to government intervention anyway. The Keynesian game of borrowing more and more money to prop up the economy cannot possibly go on ad infinitum. None of the politicians will ever admit this of course because it is in their interests to borrow against your future to make themselves look like heroes and so they can act like they are "doing" something to help us.
-- But people, by and large, aren't stupid. They know what's going on. And the really clever ones are moving now to protect themselves before the music stops.
Murray Dawes
Editor, Slipstream Trader
for The Daily Reckoning Australia
Newcrest mining:
Newcrest is a leading international gold company and one of the world's lowest cost gold producers.
The company is Australia's largest gold producer and a global top 10 gold mining company.
Fact sheet: http://www.newcrest.com.au//pdf/FINAL_Newcrest_Fact_Sheet.pdf
web site: http://www.newcrest.com.au/
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Aussie Mining stocks -
All welcome -
Commentary on Australasian mining / exploration in Australia and all other parts of the world -
Investors doing DD -
Stocks trading on the ASX -
Newcrest Mining Limited:
Newcrest is a leading international gold company and one of the world's lowest cost gold producers.
The company is Australia's largest gold producer and a global top 10 gold mining company.
Fact sheet: http://www.newcrest.com.au//pdf/FINAL_Newcrest_Fact_Sheet.pdf
Web site: http://www.newcrest.com.au/
OceanaGold Corporation (OceanaGold) is a significant Pacific Rim gold producer, with a diverse portfolio of operating, development and exploration assets.
Assets are located on the South Island of New Zealand and the Philippines, with a corporate office based in Melbourne, Australia.
The Company is listed on the Toronto, Australian and New Zealand Stock Exchanges under the stock code "OGC".
www.citigold.com/Statistics.asp
| Australian Stock Exchange | "CTO", listed 1993 | |
| Frankfurt Stock Exchange | "CHP", Listed 2008 | |
| Category | Gold | |
| Market Capitalisation A$ | A$127 Million @ 14c | |
| Shares Issued | 908,565,634 | |
| Options Issued | 35,672,854 |
Image Resources NI
(ASX: IMA) (PNK: IMREF) is an active, innovative, Australian-based mineral explorer with a substantial portfolio of gold, nickel and mineral sand prospects in Western Australia.
Incorporated in 1994, Image was formed to utilise an extensive Australian aeromagnetic database compiled over many years by the Company's founders.
Image has used this powerful and unique data set, together with the experience and interpretive skills of its management, to acquire a range of prospects with high mineral potential. http://www.imageres.com.au/
AZS, AZURE MINERALS ORD -
Azure Minerals Limited (ASX: AZS) is an Australian mineral exploration company focused on developing precious and base metal mining projects in the richly mineralised Sierra Madre Occidental mining province in northern Mexico.
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