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What a burn on canadian cannabis companies. The market just doesn't seem to like them.
Yep. And acb has a relationship with that company. Originally I thought a bigger plan existed with his move to benefit shareholders... being he was so active with us. Then acb's old management colors became much clearer and what a train wreck. Martin, who we have now, doesn't so much to get investors excited outside of earning which sucks, but it's probably better to keep rebuilding confidence and not over promise
Cam moved down to Australia and started up Australis Capital (AUSAF)
Yeah, I reviewed some old midas letters the old management made up. I tend to believe Cam was a tool and when he realized he was misleading, he was in too deep and went along for the ride knowing it was wrong. My opinion obviously. I kinda wonder if he was advised to leave Canada.
Anyway, it was smart of you to get out in hindsight. Hopefully confidence keeps growing with this new leadership and the path they are taking...where you find an entry point you are happy with over the next quarter or two.
Merry Christmas!
sorry i'am not an Aurora investor,
i bailed in 2020
You said the same thing 9 months ago. Since then, revenues and margins have declined even more and the share price is down 40%. You were warned what was happening and ignored it.
But keep telling everyone that it isn't management who is responsible.
Wasted time on two peas in a pod. Always the same. Focus on your research and what you believe. The diamond duo ring leaders are long gone. Messes take time to clean up.... and they created a big one.
"this new ceo is gaining confidence and trust"
Based on what?:
Reduced revenue?
Reduced margins?
Reduced market share?
Reduced stock price?
Oh yeah, I forgot, he's "chasing" lower revenue and higher margins. Except the only thing he has caught has been the lower revenue since the margins are also down.
Bull, they are bonused on their cash position. Their cash position is increased by doing only one thing, selling shares.
Of course it's "tight lipped" about "good things." The share price tells the story.
The share price is down over 95% since you started posting about management promises and talk. None of those promises or statements ever came true.
Bonuses based on diluting shareholders and not selling product, yup, that's pretty close to a scam. Just ask your previous two buddies who were running the company.
I'm pretty happy on how they turned things around and believe they have a more conservative approach than say tilray, which I am also invested in. It's all high risk with any of these canadian companies, and it's clear how every one of them did bad things imo. I ate the candy they had and didn't listen to you as much as I should have back then. But I don't believe you see the bigger picture they have going on...and this new ceo is gaining confidence and trust
I know that may sound like a cool way to express frustrations, as I too am frustrated. But we both know the reality is not that they get paid to sell shares. That implies aurora would be a scam, which is completely false, unfounded, and unfortunate that is repeated here. I do agree with some of your perspectives, and when I ask what good things can be said for acb it seems it's a bit tight lipped.
Also, that's awesome to see as it again pointe out why it was a good move for Aurora not chasing that market! Low volume high profit things. Did you see the article where big pharma is now buying medical canabis companies? I didn't look over the details...might be bad or good, but that sale was for 4 billion just a couple days ago.
....so good for acb not chasing this crap.
"Meanwhile, business is getting tougher back in Canada where a glut of licenses has led to overproduction. Indoor cultivation now covers 18.7 million square feet, enough to supply 200% of the country’s demand, according to a recent report by brokerage Stifel. More than 500 marijuana companies are now slugging it out for market share, making it harder for Canada’s heavily loss-making cannabis companies to become profitable."
They don't care. ACB management doesn't get compensated for selling product. They get compensated for selling shares.
Yeah, all the Canadian cannabis companies don't seem to really know this.
Perfect country/island showing how overvalued THC really is...
if all 500,000 population wanted to consume 1g/day worth of THC...
the islands total yearly consumption would be just under 200,000kg..
Can't one small company / greenhouse produce this much a year?
or just 200 outdoor acres at 1,000kg/acre?
aren't most still super profitable even if we dropped to $1/g??
as domestic production grows, and global prices decline, probably wont even
be worth it for many companies to ship it here - as such for the rest of Europe.
Prices declined 30% since CAD legalization, trend expected to continue much farther..
ACB market share and potential future revenue on the constant decline.
Overvalued
https://sec.report/Document/0001279569-21-001800/
EDMONTON, AB, Dec. 14, 2021 /CNW/ - Aurora Cannabis Inc. (NASDAQ: ACB) (TSX: ACB) ("Aurora"), the Canadian company defining the future of cannabinoids worldwide, together with 22nd Century Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: XXII) ("22nd Century") announced today a three-way non-exclusive agreement to license biosynthesis intellectual property to Cronos Group Inc. (NASDAQ: CRON) (TSX: CRON) ("Cronos Group"), intended to assist in the advancement of research and development on the biosynthesis of cannabinoids.
Maybe Merk will team with us now. If I recall we have one of them on out board.
Someone would have to validate if interested
https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cannabis/21/12/24574979/how-pfizer-is-getting-into-cannabis-with-6-7b-arena-pharma-deal
Nice! Things are definitely turned around. Sadly the share price has not.
Sp this is good. I wish they would look at it in a way player her mentioned who is handling their ATM, setting price targets higher. Keep in mid I believe we are undervalued by 3 to 5x, but I guess we find out who is right over the next year.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/us-doj-launches-expansive-probe-into-short-selling-bloomberg-news-2021-12-10/
"1B valuation is multiples less than others"
While companies who's valuations are multiples less than ACB's are capable of producing the same revenue.
ACB's $200M/year revenue really could just be 50,000kg @ $4/g.
Hundreds of companies capable of 50,000kg production and they don't need ACB's $2.1B in assets..
share price in this industry is all about the market as a whole.
that market is still changing quickly.. only to get worse for stocks like ACB.
I agree competition is growing, but 1B valuation is multiples less than others. Short interest has also gone down, so the trend has changed in my opinion. The recent drop is due to the market as a whole, nothing to do with a lack of progress on acb's part.
"the margins are just fine. Losses are going down as well, and new markets are coming into reach"
all true. but market share decreasing fast. faster than introduction of new markets. It's all about what's next here..
ACB decreasing TTM revenue:
2021/09 187.63M
2021/06 190.63M
2021/03 194.00M
2020/12 205.32M
2020/09 195.16M
2020/06 200.24M
2020/03 224.55M
2019/12 218.68M
2019/09 217.89M
market share has never has been inline with ACB's market cap (aka expectations?)... only looks worse, international competition growing fast.
ACB market cap... $1B... OVERVALUED.
market cap.. has fallen way slower than the share price last few years..
thanks MR. Green and Pure Sun Farms is the answer I was looking for, as that is Village Farms and they are THE lowest cost producer per Gram in Canada . I seriously doubt that quality product for that price can be beat.
after safe passes the first quarter 22' should be insane ! the street seems to think its a done deal...
Well the market sure beat me up today to have much of a debate here. But the margins are just fine. Losses are going down as well, and new markets are coming into reach. Do you have anything positive about the last few quarters in your eyes? Just curious where you stand in all this.
"standard commoditizing taking place"
very true - the underlying commodity being THC. What's the price of a "standard THC serving" ?
will always be flower, but good weed, bad weed, outdoor mass production weed.. pure THC can always be extracted.. affecting the commodity.
**
legal retail store (in ontario) slightly discounting:
https://puresunfarms.com/strains/jet-fuel-gelato/
seen for sale online OCS at $22.95 ($6.56/g) and can actually range up to 28% apparently.
- or $139.95 ($5.00/g) for 28g
https://ocs.ca/products/jet-fuel-gelato-pure-sunfarms
standard commoditizing taking place . at the end of the day best product at the best price produced at the LOWEST COST per gram wins the cake .
low cost producers will survive and continue to acquire market share from failing LP'S .
mr. green ; what company was selling that 26 % at that price ? TIA .....
At an Ontario store nearby, they were just selling 3.5g @26% THC for $21 ($6/g).. How can low grade ACB weed demand keep up with the continuously falling prices and higher demand of high THC cannabis from other companies? are ACB's premium prices even worth paying for ($9+/gram) ?
ACB, Are revenues... decreasing?
I do not see the new CEO as making good on his plan.
Selling less rec for lower margins, as per the financials, does not show any progress.
Claiming to "target" higher margin markets, does not mean they have been able to sell into them.
Yeap, I believe we all understand booth and cam fleeced us as even I was open about and said. You would think the officer oversight should have been accountable as well. Do you see or not see our new ceo making good on his plan? I was cautious at first but I do see actions vs words. I believe he has a good and conservative plan to keep us on our feet where he is building up a basement before unleashing an aggressive plan. Note that last sentence is my opinion.
Here's some good examples what happens when you listen to words but not results:
1) 13-May-2019, "Reasoning is Cam has been saying they will have a positive EBITDA for months..taking place in this earnings about to be reported to us."
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=148790405
Share price was $99 USD per share. It is down 94% since then. 2 1/2 years later, positive EBITDA has still not been achieved. People were warned the numbers didn't match the words.
2) 13-June-2019, "ACB was diluted by acquisitions which generates revenue, and one of the reasons why we should have a positive EBITDA this quarter. Note I must have misinterpreted one of Cam's interviews as I thought positive EBITDA last quarter...i went back and saw things that did always point to this quarter we are in now. This next earning with ACB IMO is going to be awesome.. so be careful shorting as if they give guidance early you might loose the shirt off your back."
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=149365561
One month after the previous post, and after many additional red flags, not just a prediction of what would happen based on management talk, but a warning to those who saw the truth. Share price was $93 USD per share. It is down 93% since then. I guess the shorts didn't "loose" (sic) their shirts.
There are many more. The point is simple, talk from ACB management doesn't count for anything.
As I said, I go by the numbers and the results. You go by what management decides to tell you, whether it is true or not.
The numbers and share price show which one should be believed.
My response was in regards to the claim in your post that acb wants no part of the rec market. If you want to shift gears to another discussion we can frame that, I was pointing out it was 100% wrong claiming acb is not after the rec market, as in every cc its clear they are simply not going after the value stuff nobody makes money on.
But is it still a massive market for THC production?
"Sales of legal recreational cannabis in Canada totalled $2.6 billion, according to Statistics Canada"
$2.6 billion dollars of cannabis... is really just 520,000kg at $5/g...
Aurora once thought they could be the whole market...
I go by the numbers, not the speculation.
The numbers from the last earnings release showed rec revenue DOWN 44%.
You can claim all you want about them going after the high margin business.
The numbers say different.
The numbers from the last earnings report showed rec margins DOWN 22%.
They talk-the-talk but don't walk-the-walk.
Here is another data point. Not sure why u would think they gave up rec as it's clear they only are really after the rec business one can profit on.
""It's a massive, massive market," Aurora CEO Miguel Martin told Yahoo Finance Canada in a recent interview. "If you look at where the market is trending, and you look at that program being opened up to all 600 [coffeeshops], you get to about a $2.8 billion piece of business, which is about the same as Canada."
Sales of legal recreational cannabis in Canada totalled $2.6 billion in 2020, according to Statistics Canada."
Also wanted to steer you correctly as this here is also in regards to recreational.
Earlier this month, Aurora said it agreed to [color=red][/color]buy a "significant equity stake" in Growery B.V., a Netherlands-based company that won a licen[color=red][/color]ce to participate in the experiment".
First Canada was the savior. It wasn't.
Then Europe was the savior. It wasn't.
Then Mexico was the savior. It wasn't.
Then parts of the US were the saviors. They weren't.
Now Germany is the savior??
When you are compensated to sell shares to the market instead of selling your product, you sell what you are paid for. That isn't cannabis.
Not buying into a short squeeze around the corner being only 32M (15.6%) of the float shorted and doing between 8 to 10M a day in volume. Don't get me wrong as I would love a squeeze but in my opinion it needs to be aheast another 5 to 10% more...
As a disclaimer as well, when I saw aurora was moving out of the value brands I picked up tilray for the run of the mill market.
Just to be more blunt and I'm surprised you say no part. They want no part in the value brands but have been very clear they are big into the premium brands with high margin
Yeap... hiring 150 people as I posted last night! I believe we finally turned things around in September. Hopefully you will see it too if things keep going in the positive direction both in opening markets and share price to follow. They are clearly not going after the value brand that nobody makes money on... I've pointed this is many times and even others are following suit.
Aurora was preparing for this? How can that be when they are clear they want no part of the recreational market?
From the article, "Reports say that the government will set up a system of “controlled distribution of cannabis to adults” for recreational consumption through licenced shops."
Nope, ACB is not a player in this according to their stated direction.
By the way, "Medicinal marijuana has been legal in the EU since 2017." and ACB has not had any significant part in that for 4 years. It seems they are shutout from both ends.
Here comes many more patients as what aurora said has been preparing for! Aka.. the extra 150 employee discussion was probably in anticipation of germany! https://www.rt.com/news/541199-new-german-government-legalize-cannabis/
Yep! I'm an investor! Btw, I was in acb after cgc, I made a huge profit with cgc and acb will be next Germany! Germany just announced!
My cost basis is $6.84 right now. Still dirt cheap if this ever turns a profit. Been messing with this for years. Just got back in the past few days. Price seems low to me.
"The company does not disclose business figures. But one thing is clear: Aurora operates in a growing market. About 20 to 30,000 patients in Germany are currently receiving cannabis as medicine, primarily as a pain reliever drug. There could be ten times as many in the future if you compare Germany with countries in which cannabis has been approved for a long time. Aside from that:"
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