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Awesome as sga improving and ebita positive ahead and on the high end. Good things and bad things... be fair
Revenue flat, while others are growing!
Q1 revenue 60.1M. Q2 revenue 60.5M
All margins DOWN! (medical and consumer)
Q1 all pot margin: 54% Q2 all pot margin: 53%
Q1 med pot margin: 64% Q2 med pot margin: 62%
Q1 consumer pot margin: 32% Q2 consumer pot margin: 24%
Avg sales price down!
Q1:$4.67 Q2: $4.20
Yup, that transition plan is working, Not!
Imagine what it would have been if not for that one-time deal to Israel.
Global Cannabis Net Revenue of $60.6 Million
Adjusted EBITDA Improved by 22% to a loss of $9.0 Million versus Q1 2022
Company Reaffirms Goal of Adjusted EBITDA Profitability by H1/2023
Transformation Plan Ahead of Schedule; Company Now Expects to Realize Upper End of $60 to $80 Million Range in Total Cost Savings by H1/2023; ~$60 Million Annualized Savings Implemented to Date
Company Remains #1 Canadian LP in Global Medical Cannabis; International Cannabis Revenue Increased 24% from Q1 2022
https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/aurora-cannabis-announces-fiscal-2022-second-quarter-results-835243824.html
And the USA us getting pretty close to get this through their senate. My guess is once it's going in for a vote all the Canadian cannabis companies will pop. Not sure if it will hold when it does as it will probably depend on the language and how companies like acb can do its business in the USA.
https://www.reddit.com/r/auroracannabis/comments/sp7kv8/new_this_am_senschumer_senbooker_and_ronwyden/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
Just a reminder earnings are after the bell then the conference call. I'm not sure if I like the media pushing a beat. Investors in cgc seem to he happy with what they released yesterday, who started following acb's business plan on only going after higher margin premiums products as well(instead of making no money on the value brands). I think it's 50/50 we beat earnings as a case could be made on how it could go either way.
Maybe this time it will make it on through the senate. https://www.marijuanamoment.net/house-officially-approves-marijuana-banking-amendment-to-large-scale-bill-set-for-floor-action-on-friday/
So this is the highlights of last quarter. Hopefully we get a nice surprise with that 10m sale to cantek.
Transformation Plan On Track; Actions Taken-to-Date Have Driven Over $33 Million in Annualized Run-Rate Cost Savings
Total Cannabis Net Revenue, Net of Provisions, Grew ~10% to $60.1 million Compared to $54.8 Million in Q4 2021
Adjusted EBITDA Excluding Restructuring Costs Improved by $4.0 million to a loss of $11.5 million versus Q4 2021; Clear Pathway to Adjusted EBITDA Profitability by H1/FY23
Improved Adjusted Gross Margin before FVA of 54% versus 53% in Q4 2021
For what it's worth, I'm seeing this spread around more and more. My angle on it is that if we start seeing medical uses, it pretty much has a benefit to us shareholders as I believe once it's proven it indeed has medical value, it goes against what it's currently scheduled as... not saying legal like alcohol, as it could still be controlled going through pharmacies/prescriptions. ...aka medical marijuana.
And here we go again! Maybe this time it will go all the way through.
https://www.marijuanamoment.net/marijuana-banking-reform-cleared-for-house-floor-again-following-committee-action-on-large-scale-bill/
Awesome seeing the price going up over the last few days. Earnings is coming out on February 10th. In my opinion, if the quarter shows the same positive trends as the last few (keep in mind some here think the high volume no profit is something they should be chasing, which imo is 100% wrong). So for those the actually listen to the Earnings call to explain the numbers, the reasons behind the numbers, and what the transformation plan has been about...this is going to be a key moment in my opinion. If they present numbers that go against their transformation plan...that's going to really suck and add validation to those that poo poo aurora. If the numbers are still trending to what they said and the last few earnings, I think we are in for a good up to a valuation higher than where we sit today.
https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/aurora-cannabis-to-host-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2022-investor-conference-call-859541372.html
"Transformation plan has been on track for the last few quarters and their books show this,"
Hey, that's great. What parts of the financial "books" show this? It certainly isn't revenue, margin, or market share.
"Anyway, the only wrench I can see is maybe the Canadian government with all these covid mandates and regulations might be messing with sales."
Given Isreal, Denmark and Germany have tighter covid mandates and regulations, how can you claim those three countries have positive things for ACB while Canada does not given the statement above?
" the Share price was trending up as credibility was gained after the last earnings(fact)"
A trend lasts a while. The share price was down the 2 days after earnings and up 14% the next 4 days. Since then, it is down 50% over 2 months. The trend is down, big time. You claim it is because "the world economies started collapsing again". Please show what economies collapsed 50% over that time.
I just put a matching limit sale to activate once I hit a 20% profit on Fridays purchase. This is my way of averaging down... my average share price is in the teens if people were wondering. Bagholder some call it, I view it as a believer (yes, very disappointed over the previous management) and risk taker.. most my shares will be long term gains if/when things work out!...aka... investor.. not a trader... but yes, I have traded to average down to these levels. I don't care how others play it, but this is what I do...
Getting excited to see our earnings in a the coming weeks! Transformation plan has been on track for the last few quarters and their books show this, and listening to the quarterly cc parallels the ceo doing his talks on media outlets. We just sold another 10M to Israel, we are one of the largest flowers for Germany, have a licence agreement with cron(owned by 8>) ). And some strategic purchase going into the Danish market. I don't believe they sold one of their larger facilities yet, not sure how that will effect the books. Anyway, the only wrench I can see is maybe the Canadian government with all these covid mandates and regulations might be messing with sales. Other than that. The Transformation plan and the Share price was trending up as credibility was gained after the last earnings(fact), but then the world economies started collapsing again.
All the stocks have gone down 97% since your claims of "Cam said so"?
You might want to do your homework.
How about your claim the "turnaround" is working? Back that up with facts. Show us your data. My "homework" says the margins and revenue have declined. (It's from the financial documents if you need some help.) Where's your "homework"?
You make claims that you don't back up.
Start with this one: You claim, "Many investors were very pleased with the last few earnings". Please back that up with facts. The share price doesn't reflect it. What other factual measurement are you using to make such a claim? it is you who haven't done your homework.
I've done my homework. I present numbers and facts. This is a space to also share facts. I know some don't like that.
Hers is a good one about this industry that seems like you might like reading! Talks to your point of view... but also the fact it's not just acb that went down.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/cannabis-investing-in-2022-might-be-dead-money-analyst-warns-1.1712339
Go back and read. I don't need to do your homework. The facts are the hole canadian cannabis market recalibrated as well as the market is recalibrating. Do some research on your own and you can figure it out. Please understand this is a space to share points of views.
They aren't "points of view." I state facts and ask you to back up your claims with facts. You never do.
For example, you are now claiming this, "Many investors were very pleased with the last few earnings". Please back that up with facts. The share price doesn't reflect it. What other factual measurement are you using to make such a claim?
Sadly I purchased more shares on Friday! I increased my position quite a bit with the whole market spiraling down over the last few weeks. I've never been any good calling a bottom. Player was right about the bubble a couple years ago, but we are in a different situation.
Love our different point of views btw. The reality is probably down the middle somewhere. Many investors were very pleased with the last few earnings and are in the same camp I am about going after things that make money.
I'm sure they probably are in some way. Once I got out of college and made real money I discovered the quality of wines and beers and never went back. It should be the same here. Once the dust settles and the value brand market stabilizes, maybe it will make sense then for acb to get back in at that time? I'm not on their board so I obviously don't know their strategic vision internally, but if you listen and watch his last few videos, he makes a good point about today's situation. He never said they won't ever go back one day.
Perhaps this is becoming a trading stock again?
I'm in wait..
"Revenue and higher margins are what they are moving to"
Based on what measure? Their revenues and margins have continued to decline. They may say they are "moving to" anything they want. The financials tell the whole story.
" the transformation plan which is and has been working"
Based on what measure? By every financial measure there is, it isn't working. Oh yeah, except the management bonuses for selling shares.
"Obviously acb is trending with the Canadian cannabis market(down),"
How can you claim this is obvious when all along the claim has been that the turnaround "was working", was coming the the "next quarter"?
What is working out "OK in the end"? Based on what? The stock price is down 97% since the "cam said so" days. In the meantime, the bonuses and repriced options continue to flow.
I will be interested to see the financials to back up your statements. It would seem the market is missing all of them.
Revenue and higher margins are what they are moving to, not the value brands nobody makes money on. You know this as it was a recent discussion we already had.. and you know I know some disagree and some don't understand the transformation plan which is and has been working. Obviously acb is trending with the Canadian cannabis market(down), and as I look at the big picture, since you asked my opinion, I think it's going to work out OK in the end... I've said this many times to you as well here. I would love to make a zillion dollars overnight but we obviously know those days with the Canadian cannabis companies stalled out back on 2017. Just as the last earnings, let's see where we land with this next one which is just weeks away now. I believe those not shorting the market or shorting acb directly will be pleased. Do I wish I shorted the market with what I know now? Yessss. If I was a zillionair I wouldn't be here talking about investments.
"they feel market share is more important right now"
That's very selective of you. You seem to forget about revenue and margins. But hey, you've been pushing this since the "cam said so" days.
How's that working out for you?
Yeap.. should have waited for an uptick
Well maybe it was a dumb move, but with the rsi so low, the fact they had 400M in the bank. assuming the share structure hasn't changed... along with the new 52 week low, I just averaged down. This next earnings should be better than the last and show the good trending progress continues to be made (some here disagree as they feel market share is more important right now). Note! It's not just acb getting beat up but all the Canadian cannabis companies...as I'm in this and tilray...watching both... they both have a little different vision and feel both will work out in time.
" I see no reason why ACB cannot have the same valuation as Tilray and cgc as being all Canadian based companies. "
A simple look at the numbers tells the story.
Tilray 2021 revenue was 209% of ACB's.
CGC 2021 revenue was 223% of ACB's.
Tilray's 2021 revenue was a 27% GROWTH over their 2020 revenue.
CGC's 2021 revenue was a 37% GROWTH over their 2020 revenue.
ACB's 2021 revenue was a 8.7% DECLINEover their 2020 revenue.
Revenue growth vs revenue decline.
ACB's less revenue for less margin strategy isn't working right now. Maybe next quarter, next year.
Maybe so. Tilray has a current Market Cap of $3.33 Billion where ACB is 1.14 Billion. We just went through a corrected in the cannabis space. I see a things that gives me confidence in both these companies turning into great long term plays, as I am in both as well.,Contrary to some opinions here I believe ACB is way undervalued at its current price. I see no reason why ACB cannot have the same valuation as Tilray and cgc as being all Canadian based companies. My guess is CGC and Tilray simply appear to have a better footing in the USA.. hence why the higher multiple.
Thoughts?
The money euphoria on pot stocks is long gone.
Just an update to where things stand with our market in Germany. I did read some camabis startups are forming there but hopefully with us being more established it works out in our favor.
https://www.marijuanamoment.net/german-officials-preview-marijuana-legalization-plan-details/
Great to know that it's all about me! Btw, this explains why all the Canadian stocks are getting chopped...well, at least one more reason. https://mjbizdaily.com/analysts-cut-hundreds-of-millions-from-tilray-canopy-aurora-marijuana-sales-forecasts/
You are the one who believed all the lies. I posted about the lies, you belittled the facts and were part of the "Cam said so" crowd. How'd that work out for you?
"the new management has things turned around and doing what he said he was going to do"
By what measure?
Revenue? Nope.
Margins? Nope.
Market share? Nope.
Shareholder value? Nope.
Oh yeah, he did change the bonus structure so management was compensated on selling shares instead of product. He has been successful at that.
I know, I know. Next quarter, next year. Timeframes that never arrive. Someday there may be success. But, at this point, they have to prove it before it is believed.
K. I guess they damaged your confidence to the point it's hard to trust the new management has things turned around and doing what he said he was going to do. I like the fact we have an American CEO heading all thus up as well, as it seems the American side knows what it takes to do instead of bringing dreamy. Another 10 mill!
http://crweworld.com/article/news-provided-by-pr-newswire/2246487/aurora-cannabis-delivers-10-million-shipment-of-medical-cannabis-to-israel
Ronald Funk, Chairman of Aurora Cannabis stated, "It is with great excitement that we begin the new year by welcoming Chitwant to our Board of Directors. He offers a tremendous wealth of knowledge and executive leadership experience in the banking sector which will help further accelerate Aurora's sustainable, long-term growth. With his expertise in finance and accounting, costing and profitability, real estate, operations and performance management, Chitwant will be instrumental to our progressive agenda, lending his deep experience that is needed as we progress on our business transformation plan."
Mr. Kohli possesses over eight years of board experience including Chair of The Board of Directors at Exchange Bank of Canada, and Board Member at Trillium Health Partners, Currency Exchange International and Moneris Inc. He is a Chartered Professional Accountant (CPA, CMA), holds a Master of Laws (GPLLM) and ICD.D from University of Toronto and a Master of Business Administration (MBA).
In addition, Theresa Firestone, appointed Independent Director in July 2021 will take on the role of Committee Chair for the Human Resources and Compensation Committee (HRCC), effective today.
No need to. While others were saying, "Cam said so" I was posting about the reality and investing appropriately.
Have you started/ hopped on the class action lawsuits they have going on? I'd be curious if you know if things settled out of court.
What good? They lied. You believed the lies.
How do you view the good and bad ?
Are you saying you believe that, as the Chief Corporate Officer, he knew nothing about the deceptions, lies, and exaggerations?
Are you also saying that when he learning about the deceptions he continued the scam?
What a burn on canadian cannabis companies. The market just doesn't seem to like them.
Yep. And acb has a relationship with that company. Originally I thought a bigger plan existed with his move to benefit shareholders... being he was so active with us. Then acb's old management colors became much clearer and what a train wreck. Martin, who we have now, doesn't so much to get investors excited outside of earning which sucks, but it's probably better to keep rebuilding confidence and not over promise
Cam moved down to Australia and started up Australis Capital (AUSAF)
Yeah, I reviewed some old midas letters the old management made up. I tend to believe Cam was a tool and when he realized he was misleading, he was in too deep and went along for the ride knowing it was wrong. My opinion obviously. I kinda wonder if he was advised to leave Canada.
Anyway, it was smart of you to get out in hindsight. Hopefully confidence keeps growing with this new leadership and the path they are taking...where you find an entry point you are happy with over the next quarter or two.
Merry Christmas!
sorry i'am not an Aurora investor,
i bailed in 2020
You said the same thing 9 months ago. Since then, revenues and margins have declined even more and the share price is down 40%. You were warned what was happening and ignored it.
But keep telling everyone that it isn't management who is responsible.
Wasted time on two peas in a pod. Always the same. Focus on your research and what you believe. The diamond duo ring leaders are long gone. Messes take time to clean up.... and they created a big one.
"this new ceo is gaining confidence and trust"
Based on what?:
Reduced revenue?
Reduced margins?
Reduced market share?
Reduced stock price?
Oh yeah, I forgot, he's "chasing" lower revenue and higher margins. Except the only thing he has caught has been the lower revenue since the margins are also down.
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