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Please don't focus on me as I'm already overconfident enough with a big ego. As for acb, this new management has a mission that seems logical to me. It's OK we have different opinions, but let's not get personal and keep the focus on the company.
I'm wondering how that strategy is working out?
When the numbers said that EBITDA positive wouldn't happen you said, "But cam said so" and "the midas letter said so." The numbers were right.
Then you said, "but cam really meant the next quarter." (The beginning of the perennial next quarter timeframe.) The numbers were right.
When the numbers said that the new EBITDA positive goal wouldn't happen you said, "But Singer said so." The numbers were right.
When the numbers showed the company was bleeding cash and new ATMs were announced you said, "they'll only use it if they have to, and they don't have to." The numbers were right.
Now you want to imply that somehow, more dilution is something other than what it is. Given the record of the numbers showing the real story and your constant support of "inaccurate" management statements I wonder how that will work out? During that time management has continued to collect huge bonuses but shareholders have lost 98% of their money.
Yup, next quarter, next year.
The numbers tell the real story.
Yeah. People need to listen to the cc to understand the numbers. He was pretty clear .
Outstanding Shares
198,572,414
02/03/2022
For those "half full" people who thought they were finished with selling shares, here is what the company claims they still can sell,
"As of December 31, 2021, the Company has access to the following capital resources available to fund operations and obligations:
• $332.4 million cash and cash equivalents; and
• US$1.0 billion securities registered for sale under the 2021 Shelf Prospectus filed on March 30, 2021 (the “2021 Shelf Prospectus”) for future financings or issuances of securities, including US$300 million available securities for sale under the 2021 at-the-market (ATM) program (the “ATM Program”).
"
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1683541/000127956922000209/ex991.htm
They aren't close to the end of selling shares.
Yup, contrary to what some here claimed, they are not finished selling shares.
Hey but wont they just sell more in the future
Their main product is shares, not pot.
This has been denied by some here but the company admits it clearly in their releases.
"Subsequent to Q2 2022, the Company issued 19,595,000 common shares for gross proceeds of US$89.7 million under the ATM program."
The company's Q2 2022 ended less than 2 months ago. That's $45 million per month selling shares instead of pot.
That far outpaces their pot revenue. But yet, management will be happy with the bonuses.
Oh, and for those who have trouble with the math, the company admits with those sales that their stock is worth no more than $4.50 per share.
If you didn't listen to the conference call, he gave a good summary of the industry here and where ACB sits in it at thus link below. Hope this helps whatever decision you make. I am more pro acb and tilray and try to not be biased to only one side. Simply keep that in mind that in mind I'm a glass 1/2 full and am willing to take on risk where it may take a couple years to pay off.... it's worked for me in the past. I'm not sure if this will do down over the next 9 months, but I believe this market will be heating up alot as all these countries legalize.
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/02/10/were-the-number-one-medical-business-in-canada-aurora-cannabis-ceo-on-earnings.html
It's about time. Nice spike earlier today as well. If we go back up before close, I feel the message was well received by those listeners in the cc and we are moving up! Did you see where their San Raf which they make money on is what their new products are going to be based off in a few weeks? Also, it was pointed out the San Raf is increasing in sales, as expected. So value brands are still junk and they are not chasing it, where their premium products we make money on is increasing in sales numbers. I know you will say overall it's declining, but this is as expected if one listens to the cc. Many of the other LPs will be closing up shop in the rec market over the next few months, where that is when the Rec market should make businesses sense to look at again... that was my take away from the earnings in regards to the next few months on the rec side.
House Marijuana Banking Bill Sponsor Is ‘Confident’ It Will Advance Through Senate Despite Obstacles
February 11, 2022
The fight continues to get the Senate to pass a marijuana banking reform bill, and the measure’s House sponsor says he’s “confident” that the opposite chamber will finally take it up.
Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D-CO) has been trying to get the Secure and Fair Enforcement (SAFE) Banking Act across the finish line for several years now, and his latest attempt is to pass it as part of a large-scale manufacturing and innovation bill to which the cannabis language was recently attached in the House.
In an interview with Yahoo Finance on Friday, the congressman discussed the prospects of his proposal, which has cleared the House six times in some form now. He said that while Senate leadership has insisted on passing comprehensive legalization first, he still sees opportunities to advance his bipartisan incremental reform.
https://www.marijuanamoment.net/house-marijuana-banking-bill-sponsor-is-confident-it-will-advance-through-senate-despite-obstacles
It was promised 3 years ago, then 2 years ago, and then dangled 1 year ago. But it keeps being pushed out further and further. Now it is still at least 3 quarters away.
Trust the numbers, not the hype.
Next quarter, next year. Those are perpetually moving timeframes. Just remember, "Cam said so."
Depending who you ask. The new ceo who has been doing instead of putting out empty promises, and has been in this ceo position for about 1.6 years. He is the guy that put acb on the path to become stable and not treating ebita positive as a suggestion and taking it seriously among investors.
Looks like things are turning around.
May take a position here.
Thanks for all the great discussions.
It’s time we see that Positive EBITDA as promised last year or was that 2 years ago?
GLTA
I just listened to the cc again. The plan is working, the new brands coming out this spring are based off their brand which is both profitable and growing. 80m vs 60m is huge. I think we end green tomorrow. Guess we find out soon!
While the Canadian adult-use market continues to face challenges, we are focused on introducing a new range of products set to launch this spring," he concluded.
Medical cannabis net revenue1 was $45.7 million, an 18% increase from the prior year period, delivering 76% of Aurora's Q2 2022 consolidated revenue and 89% of adjusted gross profit.
Global cannabis net revenue of $60.6 Million
Adjusted EBITDA improved by 22% to a loss of $9.0 Million versus Q1 2022
Company reaffirms goal of adjusted EBITDA profitability by H1/2023
Transformation plan ahead of schedule; company now expects to realize upper end of $60 to $80 Million range in total cost savings by H1/2023; ~$60 million annualized savings implemented to date
Company remains #1 Canadian LP in global medical cannabis; international cannabis revenue increased 24% from Q1 2022
Fair? You may want to do some homework on Chainsaw Al Dunlap and the lessons of continuously looking to do a turnaround by cutting expenses without growing revenue. I'll give you a hint: massive failure except for management bonuses.
Fair? Aren't you the person who always said "But, Cam said so" when the truth became obvious and while the share price dropped 97% decided it was always "next quarter" when things would be good?
Fair? Management is looking for a buyout and will milk the bonuses as far as they can. They have absolutely no interest in the shareholders.
BTW, the hope of EBITDA positive is at least 3 quarters away according to management. The last time you jumped on the that bandwagon, you were burned badly because you trusted what management said.
Next quarter, next year. Those are perpetually moving timeframes.
I missed his cnbc interview... Hopefully catch it once its up online
Cc call is in 5 minutes! Link is in the earnings and a dozen other places!
Awesome as sga improving and ebita positive ahead and on the high end. Good things and bad things... be fair
Revenue flat, while others are growing!
Q1 revenue 60.1M. Q2 revenue 60.5M
All margins DOWN! (medical and consumer)
Q1 all pot margin: 54% Q2 all pot margin: 53%
Q1 med pot margin: 64% Q2 med pot margin: 62%
Q1 consumer pot margin: 32% Q2 consumer pot margin: 24%
Avg sales price down!
Q1:$4.67 Q2: $4.20
Yup, that transition plan is working, Not!
Imagine what it would have been if not for that one-time deal to Israel.
Global Cannabis Net Revenue of $60.6 Million
Adjusted EBITDA Improved by 22% to a loss of $9.0 Million versus Q1 2022
Company Reaffirms Goal of Adjusted EBITDA Profitability by H1/2023
Transformation Plan Ahead of Schedule; Company Now Expects to Realize Upper End of $60 to $80 Million Range in Total Cost Savings by H1/2023; ~$60 Million Annualized Savings Implemented to Date
Company Remains #1 Canadian LP in Global Medical Cannabis; International Cannabis Revenue Increased 24% from Q1 2022
https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/aurora-cannabis-announces-fiscal-2022-second-quarter-results-835243824.html
And the USA us getting pretty close to get this through their senate. My guess is once it's going in for a vote all the Canadian cannabis companies will pop. Not sure if it will hold when it does as it will probably depend on the language and how companies like acb can do its business in the USA.
https://www.reddit.com/r/auroracannabis/comments/sp7kv8/new_this_am_senschumer_senbooker_and_ronwyden/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
Just a reminder earnings are after the bell then the conference call. I'm not sure if I like the media pushing a beat. Investors in cgc seem to he happy with what they released yesterday, who started following acb's business plan on only going after higher margin premiums products as well(instead of making no money on the value brands). I think it's 50/50 we beat earnings as a case could be made on how it could go either way.
Maybe this time it will make it on through the senate. https://www.marijuanamoment.net/house-officially-approves-marijuana-banking-amendment-to-large-scale-bill-set-for-floor-action-on-friday/
So this is the highlights of last quarter. Hopefully we get a nice surprise with that 10m sale to cantek.
Transformation Plan On Track; Actions Taken-to-Date Have Driven Over $33 Million in Annualized Run-Rate Cost Savings
Total Cannabis Net Revenue, Net of Provisions, Grew ~10% to $60.1 million Compared to $54.8 Million in Q4 2021
Adjusted EBITDA Excluding Restructuring Costs Improved by $4.0 million to a loss of $11.5 million versus Q4 2021; Clear Pathway to Adjusted EBITDA Profitability by H1/FY23
Improved Adjusted Gross Margin before FVA of 54% versus 53% in Q4 2021
For what it's worth, I'm seeing this spread around more and more. My angle on it is that if we start seeing medical uses, it pretty much has a benefit to us shareholders as I believe once it's proven it indeed has medical value, it goes against what it's currently scheduled as... not saying legal like alcohol, as it could still be controlled going through pharmacies/prescriptions. ...aka medical marijuana.
And here we go again! Maybe this time it will go all the way through.
https://www.marijuanamoment.net/marijuana-banking-reform-cleared-for-house-floor-again-following-committee-action-on-large-scale-bill/
Awesome seeing the price going up over the last few days. Earnings is coming out on February 10th. In my opinion, if the quarter shows the same positive trends as the last few (keep in mind some here think the high volume no profit is something they should be chasing, which imo is 100% wrong). So for those the actually listen to the Earnings call to explain the numbers, the reasons behind the numbers, and what the transformation plan has been about...this is going to be a key moment in my opinion. If they present numbers that go against their transformation plan...that's going to really suck and add validation to those that poo poo aurora. If the numbers are still trending to what they said and the last few earnings, I think we are in for a good up to a valuation higher than where we sit today.
https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/aurora-cannabis-to-host-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2022-investor-conference-call-859541372.html
"Transformation plan has been on track for the last few quarters and their books show this,"
Hey, that's great. What parts of the financial "books" show this? It certainly isn't revenue, margin, or market share.
"Anyway, the only wrench I can see is maybe the Canadian government with all these covid mandates and regulations might be messing with sales."
Given Isreal, Denmark and Germany have tighter covid mandates and regulations, how can you claim those three countries have positive things for ACB while Canada does not given the statement above?
" the Share price was trending up as credibility was gained after the last earnings(fact)"
A trend lasts a while. The share price was down the 2 days after earnings and up 14% the next 4 days. Since then, it is down 50% over 2 months. The trend is down, big time. You claim it is because "the world economies started collapsing again". Please show what economies collapsed 50% over that time.
I just put a matching limit sale to activate once I hit a 20% profit on Fridays purchase. This is my way of averaging down... my average share price is in the teens if people were wondering. Bagholder some call it, I view it as a believer (yes, very disappointed over the previous management) and risk taker.. most my shares will be long term gains if/when things work out!...aka... investor.. not a trader... but yes, I have traded to average down to these levels. I don't care how others play it, but this is what I do...
Getting excited to see our earnings in a the coming weeks! Transformation plan has been on track for the last few quarters and their books show this, and listening to the quarterly cc parallels the ceo doing his talks on media outlets. We just sold another 10M to Israel, we are one of the largest flowers for Germany, have a licence agreement with cron(owned by 8>) ). And some strategic purchase going into the Danish market. I don't believe they sold one of their larger facilities yet, not sure how that will effect the books. Anyway, the only wrench I can see is maybe the Canadian government with all these covid mandates and regulations might be messing with sales. Other than that. The Transformation plan and the Share price was trending up as credibility was gained after the last earnings(fact), but then the world economies started collapsing again.
All the stocks have gone down 97% since your claims of "Cam said so"?
You might want to do your homework.
How about your claim the "turnaround" is working? Back that up with facts. Show us your data. My "homework" says the margins and revenue have declined. (It's from the financial documents if you need some help.) Where's your "homework"?
You make claims that you don't back up.
Start with this one: You claim, "Many investors were very pleased with the last few earnings". Please back that up with facts. The share price doesn't reflect it. What other factual measurement are you using to make such a claim? it is you who haven't done your homework.
I've done my homework. I present numbers and facts. This is a space to also share facts. I know some don't like that.
Hers is a good one about this industry that seems like you might like reading! Talks to your point of view... but also the fact it's not just acb that went down.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/cannabis-investing-in-2022-might-be-dead-money-analyst-warns-1.1712339
Go back and read. I don't need to do your homework. The facts are the hole canadian cannabis market recalibrated as well as the market is recalibrating. Do some research on your own and you can figure it out. Please understand this is a space to share points of views.
They aren't "points of view." I state facts and ask you to back up your claims with facts. You never do.
For example, you are now claiming this, "Many investors were very pleased with the last few earnings". Please back that up with facts. The share price doesn't reflect it. What other factual measurement are you using to make such a claim?
Sadly I purchased more shares on Friday! I increased my position quite a bit with the whole market spiraling down over the last few weeks. I've never been any good calling a bottom. Player was right about the bubble a couple years ago, but we are in a different situation.
Love our different point of views btw. The reality is probably down the middle somewhere. Many investors were very pleased with the last few earnings and are in the same camp I am about going after things that make money.
I'm sure they probably are in some way. Once I got out of college and made real money I discovered the quality of wines and beers and never went back. It should be the same here. Once the dust settles and the value brand market stabilizes, maybe it will make sense then for acb to get back in at that time? I'm not on their board so I obviously don't know their strategic vision internally, but if you listen and watch his last few videos, he makes a good point about today's situation. He never said they won't ever go back one day.
Perhaps this is becoming a trading stock again?
I'm in wait..
"Revenue and higher margins are what they are moving to"
Based on what measure? Their revenues and margins have continued to decline. They may say they are "moving to" anything they want. The financials tell the whole story.
" the transformation plan which is and has been working"
Based on what measure? By every financial measure there is, it isn't working. Oh yeah, except the management bonuses for selling shares.
"Obviously acb is trending with the Canadian cannabis market(down),"
How can you claim this is obvious when all along the claim has been that the turnaround "was working", was coming the the "next quarter"?
What is working out "OK in the end"? Based on what? The stock price is down 97% since the "cam said so" days. In the meantime, the bonuses and repriced options continue to flow.
I will be interested to see the financials to back up your statements. It would seem the market is missing all of them.
Revenue and higher margins are what they are moving to, not the value brands nobody makes money on. You know this as it was a recent discussion we already had.. and you know I know some disagree and some don't understand the transformation plan which is and has been working. Obviously acb is trending with the Canadian cannabis market(down), and as I look at the big picture, since you asked my opinion, I think it's going to work out OK in the end... I've said this many times to you as well here. I would love to make a zillion dollars overnight but we obviously know those days with the Canadian cannabis companies stalled out back on 2017. Just as the last earnings, let's see where we land with this next one which is just weeks away now. I believe those not shorting the market or shorting acb directly will be pleased. Do I wish I shorted the market with what I know now? Yessss. If I was a zillionair I wouldn't be here talking about investments.
"they feel market share is more important right now"
That's very selective of you. You seem to forget about revenue and margins. But hey, you've been pushing this since the "cam said so" days.
How's that working out for you?
Yeap.. should have waited for an uptick
Well maybe it was a dumb move, but with the rsi so low, the fact they had 400M in the bank. assuming the share structure hasn't changed... along with the new 52 week low, I just averaged down. This next earnings should be better than the last and show the good trending progress continues to be made (some here disagree as they feel market share is more important right now). Note! It's not just acb getting beat up but all the Canadian cannabis companies...as I'm in this and tilray...watching both... they both have a little different vision and feel both will work out in time.
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