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"the margins are just fine. Losses are going down as well, and new markets are coming into reach"
all true. but market share decreasing fast. faster than introduction of new markets. It's all about what's next here..
ACB decreasing TTM revenue:
2021/09 187.63M
2021/06 190.63M
2021/03 194.00M
2020/12 205.32M
2020/09 195.16M
2020/06 200.24M
2020/03 224.55M
2019/12 218.68M
2019/09 217.89M
market share has never has been inline with ACB's market cap (aka expectations?)... only looks worse, international competition growing fast.
ACB market cap... $1B... OVERVALUED.
market cap.. has fallen way slower than the share price last few years..
thanks MR. Green and Pure Sun Farms is the answer I was looking for, as that is Village Farms and they are THE lowest cost producer per Gram in Canada . I seriously doubt that quality product for that price can be beat.
after safe passes the first quarter 22' should be insane ! the street seems to think its a done deal...
Well the market sure beat me up today to have much of a debate here. But the margins are just fine. Losses are going down as well, and new markets are coming into reach. Do you have anything positive about the last few quarters in your eyes? Just curious where you stand in all this.
"standard commoditizing taking place"
very true - the underlying commodity being THC. What's the price of a "standard THC serving" ?
will always be flower, but good weed, bad weed, outdoor mass production weed.. pure THC can always be extracted.. affecting the commodity.
**
legal retail store (in ontario) slightly discounting:
https://puresunfarms.com/strains/jet-fuel-gelato/
seen for sale online OCS at $22.95 ($6.56/g) and can actually range up to 28% apparently.
- or $139.95 ($5.00/g) for 28g
https://ocs.ca/products/jet-fuel-gelato-pure-sunfarms
standard commoditizing taking place . at the end of the day best product at the best price produced at the LOWEST COST per gram wins the cake .
low cost producers will survive and continue to acquire market share from failing LP'S .
mr. green ; what company was selling that 26 % at that price ? TIA .....
At an Ontario store nearby, they were just selling 3.5g @26% THC for $21 ($6/g).. How can low grade ACB weed demand keep up with the continuously falling prices and higher demand of high THC cannabis from other companies? are ACB's premium prices even worth paying for ($9+/gram) ?
ACB, Are revenues... decreasing?
I do not see the new CEO as making good on his plan.
Selling less rec for lower margins, as per the financials, does not show any progress.
Claiming to "target" higher margin markets, does not mean they have been able to sell into them.
Yeap, I believe we all understand booth and cam fleeced us as even I was open about and said. You would think the officer oversight should have been accountable as well. Do you see or not see our new ceo making good on his plan? I was cautious at first but I do see actions vs words. I believe he has a good and conservative plan to keep us on our feet where he is building up a basement before unleashing an aggressive plan. Note that last sentence is my opinion.
Here's some good examples what happens when you listen to words but not results:
1) 13-May-2019, "Reasoning is Cam has been saying they will have a positive EBITDA for months..taking place in this earnings about to be reported to us."
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=148790405
Share price was $99 USD per share. It is down 94% since then. 2 1/2 years later, positive EBITDA has still not been achieved. People were warned the numbers didn't match the words.
2) 13-June-2019, "ACB was diluted by acquisitions which generates revenue, and one of the reasons why we should have a positive EBITDA this quarter. Note I must have misinterpreted one of Cam's interviews as I thought positive EBITDA last quarter...i went back and saw things that did always point to this quarter we are in now. This next earning with ACB IMO is going to be awesome.. so be careful shorting as if they give guidance early you might loose the shirt off your back."
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=149365561
One month after the previous post, and after many additional red flags, not just a prediction of what would happen based on management talk, but a warning to those who saw the truth. Share price was $93 USD per share. It is down 93% since then. I guess the shorts didn't "loose" (sic) their shirts.
There are many more. The point is simple, talk from ACB management doesn't count for anything.
As I said, I go by the numbers and the results. You go by what management decides to tell you, whether it is true or not.
The numbers and share price show which one should be believed.
My response was in regards to the claim in your post that acb wants no part of the rec market. If you want to shift gears to another discussion we can frame that, I was pointing out it was 100% wrong claiming acb is not after the rec market, as in every cc its clear they are simply not going after the value stuff nobody makes money on.
But is it still a massive market for THC production?
"Sales of legal recreational cannabis in Canada totalled $2.6 billion, according to Statistics Canada"
$2.6 billion dollars of cannabis... is really just 520,000kg at $5/g...
Aurora once thought they could be the whole market...
I go by the numbers, not the speculation.
The numbers from the last earnings release showed rec revenue DOWN 44%.
You can claim all you want about them going after the high margin business.
The numbers say different.
The numbers from the last earnings report showed rec margins DOWN 22%.
They talk-the-talk but don't walk-the-walk.
Here is another data point. Not sure why u would think they gave up rec as it's clear they only are really after the rec business one can profit on.
""It's a massive, massive market," Aurora CEO Miguel Martin told Yahoo Finance Canada in a recent interview. "If you look at where the market is trending, and you look at that program being opened up to all 600 [coffeeshops], you get to about a $2.8 billion piece of business, which is about the same as Canada."
Sales of legal recreational cannabis in Canada totalled $2.6 billion in 2020, according to Statistics Canada."
Also wanted to steer you correctly as this here is also in regards to recreational.
Earlier this month, Aurora said it agreed to [color=red][/color]buy a "significant equity stake" in Growery B.V., a Netherlands-based company that won a licen[color=red][/color]ce to participate in the experiment".
First Canada was the savior. It wasn't.
Then Europe was the savior. It wasn't.
Then Mexico was the savior. It wasn't.
Then parts of the US were the saviors. They weren't.
Now Germany is the savior??
When you are compensated to sell shares to the market instead of selling your product, you sell what you are paid for. That isn't cannabis.
Not buying into a short squeeze around the corner being only 32M (15.6%) of the float shorted and doing between 8 to 10M a day in volume. Don't get me wrong as I would love a squeeze but in my opinion it needs to be aheast another 5 to 10% more...
As a disclaimer as well, when I saw aurora was moving out of the value brands I picked up tilray for the run of the mill market.
Just to be more blunt and I'm surprised you say no part. They want no part in the value brands but have been very clear they are big into the premium brands with high margin
Yeap... hiring 150 people as I posted last night! I believe we finally turned things around in September. Hopefully you will see it too if things keep going in the positive direction both in opening markets and share price to follow. They are clearly not going after the value brand that nobody makes money on... I've pointed this is many times and even others are following suit.
Aurora was preparing for this? How can that be when they are clear they want no part of the recreational market?
From the article, "Reports say that the government will set up a system of “controlled distribution of cannabis to adults” for recreational consumption through licenced shops."
Nope, ACB is not a player in this according to their stated direction.
By the way, "Medicinal marijuana has been legal in the EU since 2017." and ACB has not had any significant part in that for 4 years. It seems they are shutout from both ends.
Here comes many more patients as what aurora said has been preparing for! Aka.. the extra 150 employee discussion was probably in anticipation of germany! https://www.rt.com/news/541199-new-german-government-legalize-cannabis/
Yep! I'm an investor! Btw, I was in acb after cgc, I made a huge profit with cgc and acb will be next Germany! Germany just announced!
My cost basis is $6.84 right now. Still dirt cheap if this ever turns a profit. Been messing with this for years. Just got back in the past few days. Price seems low to me.
"The company does not disclose business figures. But one thing is clear: Aurora operates in a growing market. About 20 to 30,000 patients in Germany are currently receiving cannabis as medicine, primarily as a pain reliever drug. There could be ten times as many in the future if you compare Germany with countries in which cannabis has been approved for a long time. Aside from that:"
Sorry for the day the shorts get burned!
"That's why Aurora is hiring. From the current 50 employees, the plan is to grow to 150 by the end of next year, in Berlin and Leuna. The basic requirement for a job at a cannabis producer: a police clearance certificate."
Go find this... it's out there!
Also, just so you know, I did buy more near yesterday's low as I saw yet again the potential here on how the price moved.
This is obviously just my opinion based off what I see happening, but I believe we hit the turning point back in September, but I'm looking for the long term uptrend. Don't get me wrong as i get excited about the pops too and get disappointed when a higher support level doesn't hold for this pop.
How many years is it going to be before anyone makes any money investing in pot stocks other than than the initial run on hype like all stocks do when they IPO.
"Three analysts have made estimates for Aurora Cannabis' earnings, with the lowest EPS estimate coming in at ($0.15) and the highest estimate coming in at ($0.14). Aurora Cannabis reported earnings of ($0.28) per share in the same quarter last year, which suggests a positive year over year growth rate of 46.4%. The business is scheduled to announce its next quarterly earnings report on Thursday, February 10th."
So those here that remember Peltz, at one point he seemed to talk to the tune of using hemp for packaging and it was a huge market. ..well her ny is looking at it. https://www.marijuanamoment.net/new-york-bill-would-encourage-marijuana-packaging-made-from-hemp-as-a-sustainable-plastic-alternative/
So how are you relating this to acb and it's valuation?
So I wonder what this means if anything between aurora and coke. https://www.newsbreak.com/news/2441946535212/monster-beverage-exploring-deal-with-constellation-brands-source
Don't know what their deal is. They left then came back in the spring. Maybe they are playing the same tune of what they did last year. https://thedeepdive.ca/bofa-terminates-coverage-on-tilray-aurora-cannabis/
Yep. I was in CGC back when Bruce was there and sold into a big partnership. When they started buying massive greenhouses and had crop failures is what alerted me to move over to aurora. Cam Batley had an Alegence to Terry Booth had no fiscal responsibility that didn't unfold until after they ran and hid in another country and protections of a corporation. I hope they both get exposed and properly held accountable. I believe in aurora and the tech. Our new ceo, I was not too sure about and felt he was just doing his time to get the rest of his $ from the relive deal made with aurora. He is proving he is in this to win. He had to gut the company because of the damage the previous officers did, and Mike Singer did get caught up in the high quantity no profit products. So this is what people need to understand why we are not pulling in as much as, as we moved to a market we can make money on. The bears say we were doing bankrupt. Well, that's not even on the table anymore. Things ate turned around and we have a path, this new ceo actually created a trend others are starting to follow. We just need to keep the lead. We appear to be positioned nicely in Europe which is happening before the USA. I averaged down over time, but I do believe we will make a come back as excitement will and is coming back as new markets come online. I believe over 20 usd is not far off, as for the people posting over 50, that imo will be more of a distant future based on the USA. I have a core position I plan to hold till after the USA legalization happens and will make choices then.
a far bigger market for CBD than I would have ever guessed .
that is ....BTW the best looking avatar I have ever seen.
Aurora will be profitable in another year. Then with the worldwide legalization in the next five years or so this company will do really well. The question is do you want to wait that long.
So I missed this video. It is a great summary of my take away from the earnings ca and also shows even the people tracking this market are starting to believe in our ceo.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/aurora-cannabis-reports-mixed-q1-results~2318874?jwsource=cl
Details specific to acb! You will like this one. https://prohibitionpartners.com/2021/11/19/poland-receives-its-largest-ever-shipment-of-medical-cannabis/
Turning a CBD farming byproduct into feed for cows, chickens and sheep
https://www.opb.org/article/2021/11/16/processed-hemp-cbd-as-feed-for-livestock/
Demand for CBD Edibles Spurs due to Legalization and Acceptance of Cannabis & Hemp Consumption; Market to Reach US$ 34.15 Bn By 2031, States TMR Report
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/demand-cbd-edibles-spurs-due-113000914.html
Luxembourg Set To Become First European Country To Legalize Marijuana Following Government Recommendation https://www.marijuanamoment.net/luxembourg-set-to-become-first-european-country-to-legalize-marijuana-following-government-recommendation/
Biden’s FDA Pick Prescribed Cannabinoid Medicine And Recognized Marijuana’s Therapeutic Potential https://www.marijuanamoment.net/bidens-fda-pick-prescribed-cannabinoid-medicine-and-recognized-marijuanas-therapeutic-potential/
Ok. I thought you were saying another round was going or actively taking place. Yeah, I know they did that..was announced twice.. one for both instances a with only a few months apart...
Had to use Google to translate, but I did read we should hear more on all this next week.
Ampelparteien einigen sich auf Legalisierung von Cannabis
https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/ampel-parteien-einigen-sich-auf-legalisierung-von-cannabis-a-216b328b-5746-4eb8-afe6-034ea7a05269 $ACB
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