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Oh boy....I guess I'm wrong here. The lowering of guidance for 2022 and 2023 is pretty disappointing. Not sure what I'm going to do here.
I'm with you Jess. Just going to wait patiently for the suit to settle and the buyout at 20.
Nah Rum, it’s a hiccup. Just three weeks ago, a tute just invested 7/8M shares. They must have seen something or heard something or analyzed something or did due diligence through their tentacles, spies or sources that made them do it. They probably knew or expected this 3rd qtr ER to happen before they invested in it. They probably didn’t know the magnitude of the sell off today. I will bow to BR if his figure comes
Knocking very close…JMHO.
Jess,
It looks like it may be sooner than expected.
rum
and I was heckled for calling peter out for the idiot of a ceo that he is.
I said he only cares about his 110.000.00 dollar monthly paycheck.
heck we are only down 29.00 dollars from our high.
but then again some here are excited losing money
I hope peter gives himself a nice bonus for a job well done for the shorts.
and now we see why some of upper management left
this has turned out to be the perfect example of the peter principle.
PG should be fired for incompetence. Sell the company for 15 and lessons learned.
disappointing quarter for sure. Who will believe anything [Peter says now, getting crushed in PM
Net revenue of $55.8 million for Q3 2022; including $30.0 million milestone from Otsuka related to European Approval of LUPKYNIS® (voclosporin)
Adjusts net product revenue guidance to $100-105 million from sales of LUPKYNIS for 2022
Issues preliminary net product revenue guidance for 2023 in the range of $120-140 million from sales of LUPKYNIS
Approximately $400 million of cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash and investments as of October 31, 2022
I guess you were figuring in the numbers after the "." as in cents.
so at 8.20 that is actually 4 digits
Initially, but just pushed it off to the 3rd.
My apology. Just read the 3rd
GLTA
If Sun wins the suit which I dont think is likely, BR's "fear of the 2's" will become reality. If the suit is settled or otherwise favorably resolved, the sp will be back in the low teens quickly. At that point I think management will accept an offer in the 20's and that will be the end of it. Another tainted victory like Ariad. For those of us with almost 6 years in this one our ROI will still be very good. Not as great as we were hoping for but a lot better than most other investments. Or we might lose most of it here due to management's almost laughable incompetence. I'm with Jess, in it for the duration.
Yes, Neil Solomons.
Wasn't one of the departing guys CMO?
I wonder if they have built up enough unused vacation that they will get paid through the end of the year. That might be a factor in the timing.
Let's see if AUPH just leaves those positions open (which would favor a buyout scenario) or fills them (which would signal they feel they need to continue to advance their science, conduct further trials, etc.).
I'm not going anywhere either.
It could be that they see no chance of Auph being acquired in the near foreseeable future? they are retiring? they want to pursue mysticism in India? they’re going bonkers about PGs body odor? It could be many things. But one thing I’m sure of is I’ll be waiting till this is bought out even if the price goes down to 2 bucks, as BR would hope to.
Thanks for the reply.
That is one POSSIBLE explanation - the best case scenario. The nature of the positions involved (CMO and EVP Research) that are now vacant also suggest that AUPH is not working on further developing their science or IP. It is also doubtful that they both suddenly got new jobs and are leaving on short notice at the same time.
Other than pure cost-cutting, or both of them getting into a spat with PG (why now?) what other explanations are there?
Top executive level employees do depart early before a buyout, convinced or told they will not be retained. Look what happened at TWTR in the last few days--outright firings of CEO, and engineering staff was not retained by Musk..
New13G Filing
2022-10-28 13G Deep Track Capital, LP 7,841,570 shares 5.53 ownership
if that is true than this is not pre run up to ER. Yahoo has them reporting next week 1st to 7th.
What do long term posters make of the AUPH executive departures? Robert Huizinga EVP Research and Neil Solomon CMO are departing at the end of this month. Pretty sudden.
No sir, the 14th
GLTU
are they reporting tuesday?
Double digits by 11-1
Smart $$ definitely buying into pre-earnings run-up Saud…
Seems our biggest catalysts, like those two BIG 3X ONES, during Dec 2019 and Mar 2017, showed a “concentrated re-inflation” of AUPH’s daily share price…leading right up to the Actual Catalyst. The hedge funds & other short-minded players “Share-Price Compression Strategy” only works… until the day that they “Lose Control”.
As many have mentioned here, and also on Twits, the AUPH Analysts have us pegged in the upper $20’s…. Why wouldn’t Smart Money take a chance on gaining earnings of over 300%? Anybody out there have a line on a possible short-term 300% gain investment?
I’m sure a few of us retailers are, right now, selling some of our “dog stocks”, just to take a chance on another possible 3-bagger again. Not saying this Q3 earnings report by itself will trigger 300%, but upcoming buyout will.
are we getting a little pre earnings runup?
Auph presentation on the safety and efficacy of Voclosporin…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/aurinia-pharmaceuticals-announces-presentations-american-160000019.html
Just be patient. The revenue will be going up, the share price will go up as well. Slow and steady... up and to the right.
RMB: When I first heard about the 'Time is Nephrons' website/campaign etc., I assumed they were going to be very aggressively marketing Lupkysis as the way to stave off/delay the need for beginning dialysis.
I've been surprised they didn't do that and instead chose such a 'relaxed' sales campaign.
Hard to figure why they chose the course they did.
Thanks for posting MD.
Aurinia launches 'uncomfortable' kidney health campaign as it details the realities of lupus nephritis
https://www.fiercepharma.com/marketing/aurinia-launches-uncomfortable-kidney-health-campaign-it-details-realities-lupus
Hopefully M&A activity in the space is beginning to start up again. Of course if we were to get lucky and get an offer it won't be the pie-in-the-sky type but if we get close to a 3 to 4 billion offer that would save the day.
Maybe this past year has shown PG that it ain't so easy.
i would like to see a few things revisited
like peter stating that shareholder value was one of his top concerns.
I guess he was just practicing being a stand up comedian.
Yes, I would like that author to revisit the story a year and a half later, and see if a follow up would be as glowing.
that article is over a year old. and we had rapid growth and even more rapid decline. thank you peter. the only thing going up is peters paycheck
Remember, these two plus Michael Martin are the ones who sold at the top last year, low 30s.
What's PG supposed to say?
rosemountbomber No real idea, but someone mentioned option expiration, and I thought that sounded plausible.
So the rise yesterday was attributed to this:
"On Thursday, Aurinia (AUPH) shares spiked as investors highlighted the purported takeover approach made by pharma giant Bristol Myers (BMY) exactly a year ago. "
What does that really mean? The stock went up yesterday because it was the one year anniversary?
From SA: Aurinia announces resignations of medical chief and senior research executive
Aurinia defended at H.C. Wainwright after key resignations
Oct. 21, 2022 3:30 PM ET Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AUPH)
By: Dulan Lokuwithana, SA News Editor
Just a day after a 13% rise, Canadian biotech Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:AUPH) is back in the red even as H.C. Wainwright moved to address questions surrounding the departures of the company's Chief Medical Officer and Executive Vice President of Research.
The resignation of medical chief Neil Solomons and research EVP Robert Huizinga was not due to any disagreement with the company management, the analyst Ed Arce remarked, citing AUPH's Chief Executive Peter Greenleaf.
"After speaking with CEO Peter Greenleaf, we are confident that their leaving does not involve any disagreements with the company or management," the analyst wrote, reiterating the Buy rating and $26 per share target on the stock.
Noting "their extraordinarily long development stewardship of voclosporin from discovery to approvals," Arce rules out concerns over the timing of the resignation, which came after the European approval for the lupus nephritis therapy.
Citing its "long-tenured professionals, as well as a number of recent hires over the last couple of years," the analyst also pointed to the company's bench strength.
On Thursday, Aurinia (AUPH) shares spiked as investors highlighted the purported takeover approach made by pharma giant Bristol Myers (BMY) exactly a year ago.
"After speaking with CEO Peter Greenleaf, we are confident that their leaving does not involve any disagreements with the company or management," the analyst wrote, reiterating the Buy rating and $26 per share target on the stock.
the analyst Ed Arce remarked, citing AUPH's Chief Executive Peter Greenleaf.
With the market hammering us today it looks like those two jumped from our sinking ship. They obviously know more about what is going on at Aurinia. What a cluster this is.
Because they were the architects of the failed patent strategy
Candidate & Indication | Development Stage | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preclinical | Phase 1 | Phase 2 | Phase 3 | Market | |
VOCLOSPORINLupus Nephritis (LN) | Preclinical Phase complete | Phase 1 Phase complete | Phase 2 Phase in progress | Phase 3 Phase not started | Market Phase not started |
Aurinia is committed to working in areas of high unmet medical need and is poised to deliver the first approved therapy in the U.S. and Europe for the treatment of lupus nephritis, or LN.
Voclosporin, an investigational drug, is a novel and potentially best-in-class calcineurin inhibitor (“CNI”) with clinical data in over 2,000 patients across indications. Voclosporin is an immunosuppressant, with a synergistic and dual mechanism of action that has the potential to improve near- and long-term outcomes in lupus nephritis (LN) when added to standard of care mycophenolate mofetil (MMF). It has been granted “fast track status” by the U.S. Food & Drug Administration (FDA).
Voclosporin has the potential to become a best in class medication and the first approved treatment for LN in the U.S. and Europe, effectively altering the current treatment paradigm for the disease.
Our clinical data suggests that adding voclosporin to the current SoC of MMF for the treatment of lupus nephritis (LN) will yield superior results to using the standard of care alone.
Additionally, voclosporin may prove to be an ideal therapy for lupus nephritis due to advantages such as:
In clinical trials, Voclosporin has been shown to be especially effective in the presence of low dose steroids with rapid reduction of LN inflammatory markers and overall improved renal stability.
The list of potential product benefits includes:
LN Critical Need | Voclosporin (based on AURA Results) | |
---|---|---|
Control of Active Disease | ||
Rapid Disease Control | ||
Lower Steroid Burden | ||
Impact on Extra-renal disease | ||
Convenient Treatment Regimen |
In previous studies, over 2000 patients have been treated with Voclosporin with no abnormal or unexpected SAE’s
Efficacy of calcineurin inhibition has already been established. Voclosporin has a well-characterized safety profile (over 2,000 patient exposures across multiple years) across indications.
No new safety signals were observed with the use of Voclosporin in LN patients; Voclosporin was well-tolerated and renal function remained stable in clinical studies. The overall safety profile is consistent with other immunosuppressive drugs.
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