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Benny. How much are U losing each quarter and when do U expect to at least break even ?
First thing the CFO’ s / analysts will ask the CEO at JPM
So what’s your opinion ?
When will AUPH stop losing money and at least break even ?
Kiwi
Ha ha, you still remember the good old days eh. At least 2da is a little credible than this no-position-competition-promoting poster.
Benny. I’ll only explain to you how the Ceo cherry picked the earnings data pre JPM if U accept what I’ve told U re my position
I’m not short AUPH
I may short it after JPM … depends on the JPM presentation and if the stock spikes on buyout rumors
Kiwi
How was the earnings release "cherry picked"? How is your short doing after the $3.44 gain in 10 days?
Talk about a broken record! SoS every post he makes. You really have to wonder why he is so persistent. He's either being paid or extremely nervous about his short or both.
Nope not public service . Just trying to determine if AUPH is a likely buyout .
Nov 2022 data
Lupkynis ....53% complete renal response at 3 yr ...expensive but an oral drug
Belimumab ....62% complete renal response at 2 .5 yrs ...Roughly 1/3rd the cost of Lupkynis but IV or subQ injection .
Nephrologists prefer Lupkynis for their severe LN patients but insurers want them to try Belimumab first
AUPH's Ceo looks to be fishing for buyout offers with his cherry picked earnings release .
Doubt anyone bites at JPM next week ...but good luck anyway
Kiwi
We got Zzientists!!! We got Zzientists!!!
So U back out the one time royalty payment and they lost ( spent ) around $42m in the last Qt to get around 200 new patients on Lupkynis .. 50% of whom will drop the drug at end of a year
That about right ?
Kiwi
Benny I doubt many short small biotechs before a JPM conference. This is their time to hang out the “ make me an offer “ sign
I may post a critique later on this earnings pre announcement….,such as how much they spent to get 200 ? roughly on Lupkynis in the last Qt … 50% of whom will drop it within a yr
Kiwi
Benny. I’m not short AUPH
Relax. Enjoy the pre JPM pop.
Ceo looks like he has his “ offers welcome “ sign out with his pre release
Kiwi
Correctamundo, brother!
Hitting these numbers with everything that’s going on and with an extremely small, limited experienced sales staff, and a relatively small, unknown company speaks volumes . We’re primed for a BO, can you imagine the sales revenue from a big Pharma company?
I think they wanted to get the news out before JPM next week, they never report this early normally.
For the people who were smart enough to load up on this when it hit 4.07, we’ve almost doubled our position…this is great news!
…I can’t believe how many of you are replying to the dude in the basement that keeps misquoting his “wife”
Jess. U can sign up to that site and read the latest on LN ...its free
From a poster in ST:
“No body knows anything but all BP companies already knew that BENLYSTA failed at week 104 after extended study. Serious infection occurred at week 104 and patients died / kidneys failed after week 104 with a ‘p’ value ~ 0.1355 (completely failed for LN). Patients then will need to go for dialysis.
Whereas Lupkynis passed A2 data readouts with zero death in VOC arm after 3 years of extended study. The longer the patients take Lupkynis, the better for their kidneys in long term.”
renalandurologynews.com/hom
Watson.... The Ceo's of KZR and AUPH are presenting at JPM on Jan 11th .
Suggest you chk out both webcasts .
The JPM conference is where U want to be if you want to encourage any buyout interest .
BP may " kick the tires " but doubt if anything serious develops.
Lupkynis is currently a Tier 5 drug ( at least at Kaiser ) .
He will at the next annual meeting, I guarantee it.
Would be great if they could PR the terms of settlement. Will they get a little piece of Cequa in the form of royalties.
Wonderful analysis! From your lips to God’s ears, it really is occam’s razor based on your level headed analysis.
did the buy out rumor fizzle once again?
Kiwi makes fair point about insurance company hurdles due to cost ... but data is outdated. I
- with lit done, costs will come down -- and should fall in the range of 40M to 50M.
- from BB script data, it would appear Auph is having a very good quarter ... and there will be an inflection point in 2023 IMO.
- Per Kiwi, Nephs already on board.
- Per cowen, Rheums getting more comfortable (which I find funny, ... like they have a choice because you either start following evidence-based treatment or you will lose all your patients and credibility). Benny is not a real option for LN patients in class 3-5. Having watched a family member go on dialysis and die of kidney disease, treating LN is not only about getting results, but getting there fast. The insurance companies have for the most part stepped up and approved. Evidence based treatment (coupled with a very favorable icer report) will carry the day.
- Just speculation, but IMO BO will be completed in 2023. Why? BP could probably pick this one off for 30 to 35 pps now ... but if sales hit an inflection point ... it will take 3x that number.
WT
History Benny is I think now generic , priced at $36,000 a yr vs Lupkynis at around $92,000 yr
Health providers get big discounts on this figures
Nephrologist prefer Lupkynis vs Benlysta but payers ( insurers) want them to try Benlysta first because it’s far less expensive
50 % of those with a Lupkynis script don’t continue with it past 1 yr either because the insurer won’t cover , patient can’t afford the copay or patient simply doesn’t want the drug anymore.
So doubt if BP is interested as much as it’s hyped on second tier social media
But good luck. I could’ve wrong on this ..we’ll see
Kiwi
Benny. I’m not currently short AUPH
I’m just trying to decide if it’s worth it .
AUPH could drastically cut their WAC ( drug pricing ) and ramp up their script numbers …, like Amgen did with Repatha
So they still have that option before they burn thru their cash on hand
If I short it you’ll be the first to know
Kiwi
Kiwi would be well advised to cover his short while he can. Might become very expensive for him otherwise very quickly.
Increased position today by 1.5%
Been adding slowly since Feb 2017.
I hope this ends soon.
Isn't Benlysta off patent soon? Wouldn't GSK like Voc?
Kiwi: There's too much pointing to a buyout here to doubt that it will happen. It's more of a "when" than an "if".
It sounds like you're hoping against the event.
Z. from the Co's last report
Only 120% more to reach my break even…
Waited for Soooooo long!
Refreshing to have hope again!
GLTA
$AUPH
TheFly.
1, 04, 2023
AUPH, BMY
09:53
Aurinia worth 'keeping closer eye on' after settlement, Dealreporter says
After Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) announced a patent settlement with India's Sun Pharmaceuticals regarding lead asset Lupkynis, Dealreporter said in a flash note to its subscribers that it will "be keeping a closer eye" on Aurinia for signs of momentum toward a sale with this patent overhang lifted. The M&A focused publication noted, according to contacts, that Bloomberg reported in late 2021 that Aurinia had received a takeover approach from Bristol-Myers (BMY), but a sale never materialized.
AUPH BMY
BullishBearish
Took a starter yesterday for a buyout. Patent situation should help the stock turn around.
$AUPH
Z. I agree that parts of our healthcare system are disfunctional .
Dialysis costs …. end result of LN … is federally covered thank to Pres Nixon ( one thing he did right )
So from the insurer ( payor ) pt of view … “how much do I want to spend before the Feds pick up the tab “
My wife wastes up to an hr a day arguing with insurers… trying to get them to cover drugs she prescribes
Re my sale. I posted it in 2021 on this board and copy and pasted part of it earlier today
Good luck on a buyout out
I consider it a looooong shot …. But may be wrong
Kiwi
Great drug, crappy management but loads of potential. Obviously going to be acquired now that nothing is blocking the sale. Current script counts are meaningless; BP can turn that around very quickly and they will. Just a matter of how badly they want it.
Nope. I was just trying to determine if AUPH was worth a larger position
Decided it wasn’t so exited in late 2021 as posted
Since then it’s dropped from around $20 to where it is today
I should have shorted it
Total Rx is trending flat and New Rx is trending down
Good luck
Kiwi
After factoring out his time posting on this board, he netted about 3 cents an hour.Ha!
There is no way it trades flat with this much volume. Retail orders are being "parked" in the darkpool. That is the only way to pin the price like this.
Great way to start the year! I finally have lots in the Green.
Didn’t know he has such a big stake in this stock. From now on, I’ll listen to his advice??
Again, then WHY are you still here? (Not expecting an answer).
Benny / Z I only owned 300 or so shares . Last sale was as follows
payors usually want patient to fail on Benlysta
I sold on the last buyout rumor months ago
You just figured that out now? He takes his cue from what he sees in his partner’s practice.
You just figured that out now? He takes his cue from what he sees in his partner’s practice.
If you "sold on the last buyout rumor months ago" then why are you still here? I think you are lying.
Candidate & Indication | Development Stage | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Preclinical | Phase 1 | Phase 2 | Phase 3 | Market | |
VOCLOSPORINLupus Nephritis (LN) | Preclinical Phase complete | Phase 1 Phase complete | Phase 2 Phase in progress | Phase 3 Phase not started | Market Phase not started |
Aurinia is committed to working in areas of high unmet medical need and is poised to deliver the first approved therapy in the U.S. and Europe for the treatment of lupus nephritis, or LN.
Voclosporin, an investigational drug, is a novel and potentially best-in-class calcineurin inhibitor (“CNI”) with clinical data in over 2,000 patients across indications. Voclosporin is an immunosuppressant, with a synergistic and dual mechanism of action that has the potential to improve near- and long-term outcomes in lupus nephritis (LN) when added to standard of care mycophenolate mofetil (MMF). It has been granted “fast track status” by the U.S. Food & Drug Administration (FDA).
Voclosporin has the potential to become a best in class medication and the first approved treatment for LN in the U.S. and Europe, effectively altering the current treatment paradigm for the disease.
Our clinical data suggests that adding voclosporin to the current SoC of MMF for the treatment of lupus nephritis (LN) will yield superior results to using the standard of care alone.
Additionally, voclosporin may prove to be an ideal therapy for lupus nephritis due to advantages such as:
In clinical trials, Voclosporin has been shown to be especially effective in the presence of low dose steroids with rapid reduction of LN inflammatory markers and overall improved renal stability.
The list of potential product benefits includes:
LN Critical Need | Voclosporin (based on AURA Results) | |
---|---|---|
Control of Active Disease | ||
Rapid Disease Control | ||
Lower Steroid Burden | ||
Impact on Extra-renal disease | ||
Convenient Treatment Regimen |
In previous studies, over 2000 patients have been treated with Voclosporin with no abnormal or unexpected SAE’s
Efficacy of calcineurin inhibition has already been established. Voclosporin has a well-characterized safety profile (over 2,000 patient exposures across multiple years) across indications.
No new safety signals were observed with the use of Voclosporin in LN patients; Voclosporin was well-tolerated and renal function remained stable in clinical studies. The overall safety profile is consistent with other immunosuppressive drugs.
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