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5 min ASKH chart.
though its 20 minutes delayed, this chart shows exactly 2 full trading days, and what i see here is simply a continuation of the speculation in my rendering of the 2 month daily chart. once again we have a stock trading in a tight range, with a rising A/D line, and an OBV that continues to fall. interestingly enough, the ChiOsc only just now turned negative. some of the previously eaten float has begun to leak back in. shares are still available here.
i have the feeling we won't be long in hearing news of some sort.
best to ALL
rich
hey!!! a blast from the past. nice timing ya' got. after being relatively keyboard-less -- been Android Tablet restricted -- i finally bit the bullet and got a notebook late last week. spent the last days installing and setting up a Linux partition. i have little nice to say about the big W, and when my brother, a lifetime user of the Op, starts complaining about the Mac, well...
so, where was i? probably adrift in the ether, but its possible i'm back. and speaking of back, ASKH you ask. got a couple charts for you. pasted below is the 2 month daily. its rather interesting, and, of course, i'm to going to offer some thoughts. perhaps another chartist will pipe in.
good to catch ya' here, old buddy!!
as is my wont, i generally post far more indicators than are necessary to tell a story. but the narrative based on the details of them can often be reflected in using just a few. on this chart, i see a range bound stock in the midst of a consolidation following its recent retracement, one which began when the 50ma became a line of resistance. on the 25th of June this closed at .063 and it has not traded above that point since. that is where we begin our exploration of the chart.
though ASKH closed on the very next day at the 100ma, that line of support -- one which had been duly tested and held for nearly a month -- was quickly flipped into resistance when it was subsequently broken on the down side. the question is 'what does the chart offer in explanation?' we can obviously see through the cmf the falling pressure on the ask, the waning to negative momentum via the ppo and macd, the changeover from buying to selling as pertains to the williams abd the sto's, and the dropping sentiment in the rsi, but none of them have entered oversold territory. why not? the answer is there on the A/D line. ASKH doesn't lack for buyers, its being accumulated, and, as the volume increases, its being done in greater numbers. so why isn't it moving up or breaking out?
for me, the relevant indicator here is the OBV. i generally use this to gauge company or insider trading. take note that on the previously referenced day of June 25 the signal line for the OBV began its down turn, and yesterday saw a spike down on the daily. it looks to me as though these shares might be part of a covered short; one in anticipation of the coming merger. in the case of a cancellation, these shares would have then been sold above the anticipated price drop, or, should it go through, those shares might have been accumulated by insiders confident that the deal was closing. as is always the case, there are two sides to every coin. iirc, i believe the share structure is going to change with the merger.
anyways, having written all that, my chart rendering here sez' that retailers, as seen via the ChiOsc, have stepped up and they are the accumulators. this has the potential to get quite a bit more interesting.
next post: 5 min chart.
best of trading to ALL
rich
AEMC -- thecandlestick pattern on this chart is that of the 'three white soldiers'.
though this might take a moment in some consolidation, this pattern can be very positive. its usually at its strongest when seen as the reversal of a downtrend, but it can also occur in an uptrend, signifying an increase in the momentum of an ongoing bull phase.
otoh, it can also signal the end of an uptrend. tomorrow may tell the tale.
RJDG -- a bullish engulfing candle was formed on yesterdays chart. this is a two day pattern wherein a white candle engulfs the previous days red candle, and, when it comes at the at the end of a downtrend, it signals a potentially powerful reversal as it represents a capitulation bottom.
as always, confirmation is needed before jumping in, and this is generally seen when the next candle has a close higher than that of the engulfing bullish pattern
looking at todays small, tightly compacted white candle, i take note that it a) traded all day in the upper quadrant of yesterdays white candle, and b) bounced off the support line at the 200ma.
as for the indicators on the chart, there's been a positive divergence on the macd -- an absolute abating of the negative momentum -- and both the williams and sto's have come out of oversold territory. while this is not enough for an absolute confirmation of the reversal, its a favorable portent of what's coming.
on a break of the resistance at .014, this should test the 50ma around .017. and, should that happen, a trade above .0175 offers a parabolic buy signal. an indicator to watch here is the CCI. when it gets over 100 this will in running mode.
of course, other chartists may disagree with nearly everything i wrote, and keep in mind i didn't expect this to drop this far under the 50ma, so play accrdingly.
that said, i think this is getting ready. i suspect a run towards .02 - .024 is in the offing.
best to ALL
rich
INMG daily chart
because stocks trade inside of defined channels -- we see this on the chart by looking at the top and bottom bollies -- it is a general rule of thumb that when a stock breaks down sans news, in a sudden drop under the bottom bollie, it represents a good buying opportunity. the reasons for this are twofold. one is that its simply due for a bounce; this is the very short term flip play. the other is that the recent trading range is a more honest reflection of the markets sentiment, and, as such, the price will correct to once more play inside ghe bollies.
as of this posting, bottom to top, the projected channel for INMG runs from .0069 to .0103. though this seems to be a very wide range, the reason for the exaggerated width is that this has recently played at both ends.
which brings me to todays dump. it looks like a flush out. someone exited. so far there's only been a little less than 2M shares traded below .007, and that's not even 2% of the current float. iow, its a small offset that offers little in the way of impact except for those who waste their time in worry while watching the minute-by-minute price fluctuations within their accounts. i can't speak for anyone else, but to me a hold is generally measured in days unto weeks unto months unto. unless, of course, you're minute trading.
btw... i added on today.
ASKH 2 month daily chart
5ma crossed over the 10ma and both are crossing the 20 ma. this is looking like a breakout is in the near offing. today, tomorrow, soon.
to my way of thinking, the 15-12g and its brethern has become a nearly indispensible tool for any trader wishing to stay alive in the pink and penny world. other than the occasional suspension for the egregious promotion, which is mostly flagged due to excessive money volume, the stocks most likely to incur the wrath of the SEC are those who are deliquent in their filing, and though you'd think the scam stocks would be more prevalent, that's not how the game is managed. fact is -- death by delinquency is not only more likely than anything else, its also a finality; there are no ashes from which the Phoenix arises. because there is no deniability built in to not filing, market makers will not re-represent a stock that has been suspended for such a failure. otoh, a scam stock is one that has probably been profitable for nearly all but those still holding when the shoe drops. and, just as importantly, there's a built in deniability in claiming third parties, etc, etc. a stock that goes grey in that case can come back. that said... the 15-12g(d) seems to be the panacea for all missing filings.
are you still in RJDG? on the daily chart below i see an oversold stock that looks to have found a bottom. there's some very strong support here from both the 100 and 200 day moving averages. and i take note, too, that the negative momentum -- ppo and macd -- has begun to wane, and the volume for the last four days has been below the 5 day average. i don't think this has a lot of consolidating left in it. if i find the loose cash, i may consider adding on to my second tranche. i already covered my core and bought the drop, but i mis-timed it and had my order in at the 50ma. who'd a thunk it would retrace all the way to the 200ma. oh, well!
i'm suspecting this will run shortly. lets just hope its not a short run.
best of trading to ya'
rich
a lifetime ago -- before fast chips and algorithm trading became de rigueur, in the days when market makers were numerous, and with only three digits to the right side of the decimal there was no such beast as a trip zero stock -- i did some charting for a small Internet related pink sheet company that obstensibly claimed to earn its keep via the advertising on its webpage, but was in reality a vehicle for the share swapping that we've all come to know and see as the game itself; they made the bulk of their money by carefully selling and then buying back shares, all the while making sure to keep the float as tight as possible. these were professional traders and there was no sense of urgency and no big dumps, just the steady rat-a-tat-tat of the back and forth flipping of the only liquid asset they had. it was all very controlled and my charts were used to time the filings and news releases, as well as determining when to sell, when to hold, and when to buy. back then we worked on the assumption that a proper gestation period for a stock to play in -- from the pregnant pitch at the bottom to the birth as the high -- was approximately 8 or so months, and during that period there would be 2 to 4 rolls where the stock would run, retrace, consolidate, and run again. nutured properly these usually occured every 2 or 3 months. mind you, all this was predicated on the idea that history is generally repetitive, which, btw, is the basis for charting. the reason history has meaning is that the patterns by which it exists often play out in much the same way over and over again.
so... using that as a prelude to a chart, let us look to see what i would have made note of in those 'daze of yore'.
below is the 2 year weekly chart for INMG and it offers a story for the parsing. if you go back to August 12 of 2016 you will see there was a high noted at .01, and then over the next eight months this stock drifted southward, ultimately falling to a relative bottom around .0015. on April 12 of last year this erupted and began a two week run to .032, before retracing and consolidating, and then ultimately culminating with a run to .043 on August 29 of last year. obviously then, those are the indisputable facts. now lets do some extrapolating.
first off, a caveat. basic stock gestation periods have changed over the course of the last decade. more over, the down time has become significantly longer than that of how long it takes to go up; but the basic patterns remain the same. it took exactly eight months for this to create a stable bottom from which to make its turn, and then it had a four and a half month climb to the top before returning to a bottom. so, what does that infer for the future?
time to do some math.
the walkdown from .01 to .0014-.0016 brought with it a loss to a value that was between one-sixth and one-seventh of the high. using the same relative math for the drop from .044, we have here a seven month channel drift to a relative bottom that runs from .0066-.0073. iow, we have a near duplicate pattern, with some of the same rolls on the way down, as that of the previous drop. don't believe me? look at the chart. show me where i'm wrong. the math doesn't need to be an exact fit; it merely has to stay around the same parameters.
ergo... if the recent history is to be repeated, i would look for this to begin to make a move sometime in mid to late April. of course, as is always the case, the chart is simply a map used to project the possibilities, and it offers no actual guarantees. but that's only because charts are historical, while crystal balls are speculative.
in any case, i'm still holding my third tranche, hoping to yet add on in, and patiently waiting to see how this plays out.
best of trading to ALL
rich
GW, looks like your picking them off in this industry one by one. this is an awesome move. the stock is not going to stay above the bollies forever -- a chart pullback here is generally mandated -- but it is quite impressive to see.
of course, as you know, i told you of those in the industry i liked this one best, and further stated that it would not pull back below .015. but...
i didn't play it. you did! my kudos to ya'
rich
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