Ascena Retail Group Inc fka ASNAQ

[pete807]

ASNA is ready to go next week, month, year. Good consolidation this afternoon. Since more than the entire float traded today we know what happened...

[jugs]

What a beautiful post!

You are a gift.

[pete807]

Glass half full here..... I will appreciate the moves ASNA will announce, Fortune 500 company.

Today is an example why I do not bet against companies, life is too short to spend time there... I just ignore those folks. I know I may miss out on money made that way, but I won't change.

GLTlongs!

-pete

[RyGuy]

$ASNA should minimally be valued similarly to $TLRD. They should both actually be higher. If ASNA was valued in a similar fashion to LB right now ASNA would be a $20 stock at this moment.

REVENUE: (Last TTM numbers reported this won't be accurate now)
$LB - $12.90 Billion
$ASNA - $5.45 Billion
$TLRD - $3.16 Billion

DEBT: ( Including Recent Revolver Drawdowns)
LB - $6.43 Billion
ASNA - $1.48 Billion
TLRD - $1.37 Billion

MARKET CAP:
LB - $5.45 Billion LB is up $500 Million in Market Cap today
TLRD - $ 91 Million
ASNA - $ 33 Million

ASNA - Minimum of $10 to be valued proportionally with its peers.

Then it continues to grow to $20 - $30 by year end.

LB's Market Cap has increased $500 million today alone, nearly 20 times Ascena's entire market cap.

[pete807]

Holy Cow Batman!

ASNA

Buy from the scared, sell to the greedy!

[RyGuy]

$ASNA @ $3 compared to other peer market caps;

$ASNA - $30,000,000
$TLRD - $86,671,800 Tailores Brands
$EXPR - $125,263,600 Express
$TLYS - $146,010,200Tilly's
$CTRN - $205,622,500 Citi Trends
$DLTH - $211,118,400 Duluth
$CHS - $249,102,000 Chico's
$CATO - $253,628,300 Cato Corporation
$LE - $300,717,300 Lands End
$GCO - $403,098,900 Genesco
$CAL - $434,098,900 Calares
$DBI - $587,703,600 Designer Brands Inc
$GES - $729,931,200 Guess
$BKE - $899,249,400 Buckle
$URBN - $2,097,751,800 Urban Outfitters
$AEO - $2,184,098,400 American Eagles
$GPS - $4,479,600,000 The Gap
$PVH - $4,515,275,600 PVH Corporation/Van Huessen
$LB - $5,352,652,800 L Brands

Ascena is temendously undervalued. Many of the names on this list have more debt in comparison than Ascena does... Lots of room for ASNA to run.

[RyGuy]

Is the Squeeze Beginning? Shorts covering the 35% short

[Don]

Shorts beginning to cover...

[RyGuy]

Here is why I believe shorts could potentially get screwed by holding short positions in Ascena.

Series A Junior Preferred Shares rights dividend to holders as of Business Close on Friday June 5th.

https://www.otcmarkets.com/filing/html?id=14174825&guid=_R6HUq7q12tG_3h

The Board of Dir. of the Company authorized and declared a dividend distribution of one preferred share purchase right for each share of Common Stock outstanding on June 5, 2020 to the stockholders of record at the close of business.

On or after the Distribution Date, each Right would initially entitle the holder to purchase one one-thousandth of a share of the Company’s Series A Junior Participating Preferred Stock for a purchase price of $6.30

1 Full Preferred Share equals $6,300 or the right for 1,000 shares of common stock.

If you have a short position in ASNA, beyond close of business 6/5, you are responsible to delivering these rights to your short.

These Institutional holders each own greater than 4.9% of the O/S = Schwab, Blackrock,Renaissance, Stadium Capital and Dimensional Fund.

Could Ascena potentially have negotiated something with these institutional holders to implement this rights plan?

[RyGuy]

Pete, Do you have anything on the Cantor Fitzgerald price target.

[RyGuy]

That's awesome!

[bar1080]

"Company has never declared or paid cash dividends on its common stock. However, payment of dividends is within the discretion of, and are payable only when declared by, the Company’s Board of Directors. Additionally, payments of dividends are limited by the Company's liquidity and borrowing arrangements as described in Note 10."

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1498301/000149830119000092/asna10-k8032019.htm

[bar1080]

When did ASNA suspend its dividend? I don't see one paid in the last five years.

[RyGuy]

$ASNA could be a SHORT SQUEEZE between now and June 5th.

We may be on the verge of something big here. Not sure if anyone has dug this deep. But Ascena may have a plan in place to restructure the debt and royally screwing shorts in the process.

Items of note:

On May 21st the Ascena Board met voted and approved the creation of 20,000 shares of "Series A Junior Participating Preferred Stock" This stock upon issuance is subject to dividend payments in cash in March, June, September, and December in each year.

https://www.otcmarkets.com/filing/html?id=14174825&guid=KAWHUqSowR9ydth

They also approved the "Tax Benefits Preservation Plan" which gives common shareholders on June 5th, the rights to purchase 1/1000th of a series A preferred share for $6.30.

https://www.otcmarkets.com/filing/html?id=14174940&guid=KAWHUqSowR9ydth


The additional kicker is the fact that as of May 15th Short Report, there is approximately 35% of ASNA sold short. As June 5th, stock holders of record at the close of business on that date will be granted a dividend distribution of one preferred share purchase right.

If shorts do not cover between now an close of business on June 5th, they will also be responsible for delivering purchase rights on their shorted shares. And potentially any dividend distributions to those individuals and instititutions that purchase preferred shares with their rights.

If you shortsell a stock, then you are also short all of the rights that a stockholder has including any dividends, spinoff shares, rights, warrants etc. You will owe the rights as well. Could get really pricey for shorts if shares they sold are in the hands of the institutions who decide to take advantag of the rights offering.

[RyGuy]

$ASNA on May 21st the Ascena Board has created a class of new "Series A Junior Participating Preferred Stock" constituting 20,000 shares.

https://www.otcmarkets.com/filing/html?id=14174825&guid=KAWHUqSowR9ydth

The rights issued to Common Holders allow the purchase of 1/1000th of a preferred share for $6.30

Quarterly dividends payable in cash on the last day of March, June, September and December in each year.

The Corporation shall declare a dividend or distribution on the Series A Preferred Stock as provided in Paragraph (a) above immediately after it declares a dividend or distribution on the Common Stock

Dividends due pursuant to Paragraph (a) above shall begin to accrue and be cumulative on outstanding shares of Series A Preferred Stock from the Quarterly Dividend Payment Date next preceding the date of issue of such shares of Series A Preferred Stock,

[JohnSamuel]

Ryan, as we discussed, this could be a success if the 2 board members that we think may be the authors of the plan are also involved in the selling of the preferred shares to their connections. It is certainly a well put together option for paying off the debt.

Nice research on your part Ryan plus it makes sense ... ;)

John

[JohnSamuel]

8K is out ...
https://ascenaretailgroupinc.gcs-web.com/node/14186/html

[JohnSamuel]

VERY TRUE Pete ... also, as you probably noticed they brought us down to 1.85 but in a matter of minutes we are right back up to 2.03 ...
THIS is not last weeks ASNA and won't be again ... ;)
John

[pete807]

We longs could borrow them some of the thousands we made yesterday on their stock cuz longs have RIGHTS

Those that don't cuz they borrowed shares have no RIGHTS

tick tock

Have you shorts ever heard of a poison pill?

If I were you I would not waste time trying to post fear of BK here... roflmao...

Additionally I would be afraid this company could sell the 49% minority interest in Maurices for hundreds of millions to the guys that paid hundreds of millions for the 51% (which was a Duluth group that had a positive Q since,while paying 100% of the operating costs). However free money is what it is,... no?

In time all these apparel stores will open their doors to the mirror looking lady set... I would dare to bet you some of yesterdays cash

Have a great day!

[RyGuy]

You always fail to see the correlation.

Those numbers are hopelessly out of date and you know it.

You'll see I specified most recent reported TTM Sales. Yes they will be wrong for all retailers. Not just Ascena.

Cash has plummeted for all retailers and many stores are shuttered.

Once again these other retailers have the exact same problem. But they have not been impacted in stock price to a similar extent as Ascena.

How much delinquent rent does ASNA now owe?

Once again, how much delinquent debt do all of them owe? Again they are all in the same boat.

Ascena's predicament, doesn't change the fact that those other retailers are virtually in the exact same situation.

Yet ASNA was the only one punished to the extent it was.

Yes my numbers are 2 months old. But guess what all of those retailers numbers are 2 months old not just Ascena's. Prior to COVID-19 it does not change the fact that these other retailers had more debt in comparison. LBrands even desperately needed to make a sale of Victoria Secret. Sycamore Partners canceled the majority acquisition that was scheduled for Victoria Secret. Now LBrands plans to close 250 stores and astonishingly it has increased in Market Capitalization by some $1.65 Billion in the past 2 weeks.

Yet you fret over my claims that there is justifiable reasoning that Ascena could and should be valued at $60 - $70 Million minimum right now, instead of the $14 Million it was 2 days ago. Or the $23 Million it is today..

You know exactly what I'm saying, don't pretend you don't. If other retailers in the same situation continue to be valued significantly higher, then there is justification that Ascena should be valued at least similarly to JILL and TLRD.

[jugs]

Aren't you overlooking the effect of Goldilox and the four bagels in this age of four bearance?

[bar1080]

Those numbers are hopelessly out of date and you know it. Cash has plummeted for all retailers and many stores are shuttered.

How much delinquent rent does ASNA now owe?

[RyGuy]

$ASNA should be at least $6 - $7 today.

Comparing other Apparel Retailers with debt to ASNA.
Hanes Brands (HBI), L Brands (LB), Tailored Brands (TLRD), J Jill (JILL), PVH Corp (PVH), VFC Corp (VFC).

LT DEBT (Including recent revolver drawdowns):
LB - $6.427 Billion
HBI - $3.900 Billion
PVH - $3.475 Billion
VFC - $3.110 Billion
ASNA - $1.480 Billion
TLRD - $1.371 Billion
JILL - $ 269 Million

DEBT/SALES Percentage (Most recent TTM Sales reported)
HBI - 56%
LB - 50%
TLRD - 48%
JILL - 39%
PVH - 35%
ASNA - 27%
VFC - 22%

(5x's EBITDA + CASH - DEBT) Current Price & Percentage of Value
(VFC - $25.69) $61.10 = 238%
(HBI - $6.85) $10.72 = 157%
(PVH - $34.26) $51.20 = 149%
(LB - $17.08) $16.72 = 98%
(JILL - $1.96) $0.74 = 38%
(TLRD - $4.17) $1.29 = 31%
(ASNA - $19.92) $2.04 = 10%

What has happened to ASNA's share price is terrible. Minimally there is justification for ASNA to be priced at least $6 - $7 today in comparison to Tailored and J Jill.

[JohnSamuel]

There is one thing we know for sure ... the shorts took it in the shorts today and might I add, "it was long overdue".

The other point of over 6 million shares trading is the turn over of those traded shares were in the multiples...;)

John

[Don]

Note that the top 10 ASNA Institutional Holders hold 4.9 million shares as of 3/31/2020.
The most recent short count shows 3.1 million shares sold short. Data is current as of 5/15/2020.

[JohnSamuel]

$ASNA
... as of 5:33 p.m. Central time, 6,084,400 shares have traded in ASNA. There are 9,970,000 shares outstanding. That means that 61% of the float has traded in todays action. I wonder which group, if any, picked up their fair share today ?
THAT is the question of the day ... jmho.
John

[ClayTrader]

* * $ASNA Video Chart 05-27-2020 * *

Link to Video - click here to watch the technical chart video

[Toronto_Trader]

Congrats to all who made some today on Ascena! Great run!

$ASNA

[RyGuy]

$ASNA now L Brands has gone up another $60 Million in Market Cap this morning.

Just this mornings increase in L Brands is over 4X's Ascena's entire market cap of $14 Million.

LT DEBT:
$LB (LBrands) - $6.43B
$ASNA (Ascena) - $1.48B
$TLRD (Tailored)- $1.37B

DEBT/SALES: (Last Reported TTM)
LB (LBrands) - 50%
TLRD (Tailored) -48%
ASNA (Ascena) - 27%

MARKET CAP
LB (LBrands) - $ 4,445,798,400
TLRD (Tailored) -$ 63,430,200
ASNA (Ascena) - $ 12,982,350

5x's TTM EBITDA+CASH-DEBT VALUE
LB.......$4,723,000,000
TLRD..$ 201,968,000
ASNA..$ 199,000,000

CURRENT PRICE vs 5x's Value
LB.........$16.93/$17.08 = 99%
TLRD.....$1.31/$4.17 = 31%
ASNA.....$ 1.43/$19.93 = 7%

LIQUIDITY (As COVID closures started)
LB.........$2,000,000,000
ASNA.....$ 570,000,000
TLRD.....$ 400,000,000

ASNA @ $6.25 would be the same valuation as TLRD right now at 31%

ASNA.....$ 6.25/$19.93 = 31%

[harkmi]

Yeah, as we discussed I got some more today as well. I like the way this is shaping up as well...might have to see about a little more tomorrow.
Thanks to tdeck as well..

[pete807]

Good work keeping the comparative value regularly posted here.

Your work will be rewarded. I have seen and been involved with rights offerings before.

This is just the first shot across the bow, imo....

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3577685-ascena-retail-plays-defense-rights-plan?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=asna-ascena-retail-plays-defense-with-rights-plan&utm_campaign=rta-stock-news&utm_content=link-3

[JohnSamuel]

this just may be the match that lit the fuse ...
...John ... ;)

[tdeck]

Interesting turn of events, make one wonder, just what is going on out there, who is buzzing around, etc. If it were the 80's this would have been swallowed up at least controlling interest and it would have been broken up a while ago.

Too much value with LB and Ann Inc. iconic names and debt is nothing in the big scheme of things they played it perfectly. First paying their loan payments 18 months ahead a year ago, then buying discounted debt every chance they got.

I like how things are unfolding, you don't protect something that is worthless, nuff said shorty kins.

Peace out.

[JohnSamuel]

Ascena Retail plays defense with rights plan
May 26, 2020 4:33 PM ET|About: Ascena Retail Group, Inc. (ASNA)|By: Clark Schultz, SA News Editor
Ascena Retail (NASDAQ:ASNA) announces that its board adopted a tax benefits preservation plan.

Under the tax benefits preservation plan, the company will issue a dividend of one right for each share held by stockholders of record as of the close of business on June 5.

The plan is designed to protect stockholder value by mitigating the likelihood of an ownership change that would result in significant limitations on ASNA's ability to use its net operating losses or other tax attributes to offset future income.

The plan will continue in effect until May 25, 2021, unless earlier terminated or the rights are earlier exchanged or redeemed by the board.

ASNA -1.44%=% after hours to $1.32.

Source: Press Release

[JohnSamuel]

ASCENA RETAIL GROUP ADOPTS TAX BENEFITS PRESERVATION PLAN
May 26, 2020 at 4:05 PM EDT
PDF Version
MAHWAH, N.J., May 26, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- ascena retail group, inc. (Nasdaq:ASNA) (“ascena” or the “Company”), today announced that its Board of Directors adopted a tax benefits preservation plan.

Under the tax benefits preservation plan, the Company will issue a dividend of one right for each share of its common stock held by stockholders of record as of the close of business on June 5, 2020.

The plan is designed to protect stockholder value by mitigating the likelihood of an “ownership change” that would result in significant limitations on the Company’s ability to use its net operating losses or other tax attributes to offset future income. The plan is similar to plans adopted by other public companies with significant net operating loss carryforwards. The tax benefits preservation plan provides, subject to certain exceptions, that if any person or group acquires 4.9% or more of the Company’s outstanding common stock, there would be a triggering event potentially resulting in significant dilution in the voting power and economic ownership of that person or group. Existing stockholders who hold 4.9% or more of the Company’s outstanding common stock as of the date of the plan will trigger a dilutive event only if they acquire an additional 1% of the outstanding shares of the Company’s common stock.

The plan will continue in effect until May 25, 2021, unless earlier terminated or the rights are earlier exchanged or redeemed by the Board of Directors.

Additional information with respect to the tax benefits preservation plan will be contained in the Current Report on Form 8-K that the Company is filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. A copy of the Form 8-K can be obtained at the SEC’s Internet website at www.sec.gov.

Forward-Looking Statements

Certain statements made within this press release may constitute “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Forward-looking statements are statements related to future, not past, events, and often contain words such as "expect," "anticipate," "intend," "plan," "believe," "seek," "see," "will," "would," "estimate," "forecast," "target," "preliminary," or "range". The Company does not undertake to publicly update or review its forward-looking statements even if experience or future changes make it clear that its projected results expressed or implied will not be achieved. Detailed information concerning a number of factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the information contained herein is readily available in the Company’s most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K.

About ascena retail group, inc.

ascena retail group, Inc. (Nasdaq: ASNA) is a national specialty retailer offering apparel, shoes, and accessories for women under the Premium Fashion segment (Ann Taylor, LOFT, and Lou & Grey), Plus Fashion segment (Lane Bryant, Catherines and Cacique) and for tween girls under the Kids Fashion segment (Justice). ascena retail group, Inc. through its retail brands operates ecommerce websites and approximately 2,800 stores throughout the United States, Canada, and Puerto Rico.

For more information about ascena retail group, inc. visit: ascenaretail.com, AnnTaylor.com, factory.anntaylor.com, LOFT.com, outlet.loft.com, louandgrey.com, lanebryant.com, Catherines.com, and shopjustice.com.

CONTACT

For investors:
ICR Inc.
Jean Fontana
Managing Director
[phone]
[e-mail]

For media:
ascena retail group, inc.
Shawn Buchanan
Corporate Communications
[phone]
[e-mail]

[Toronto_Trader]

Nice moves from low $1’s the last few days.

$ASNA

[pete807]

Bought more ASNA with all the free money floating, but I am a contrarian so don't listen to me. Go with the herd.

[bar1080]

"With all the grim economic news,... none is_grimmer_than for retailers—especially department stores and apparel. Yesterday the U.S. Commerce Department reported that retail sales tanked 16.4% for the month of April. As for clothing retailers the news was almost unimaginably bleak: Sales plunged 78.8%. (That’s not a typo.)

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-jc-penney-j-crew-and-neiman-marcus-going-bankrupt-matters-120705290.html

[bar1080]

Link to ASNA 10-Q For Unaudited Quarterly Period Ended February 1, 2020, signed Mach 9, 2020
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1498301/000149830120000030/asna10q-q2fy20.htm

Link to 10-K dated 10/10/19 Deloitte & Touche
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1498301/000149830119000092/asna10-k8032019.htm

[JohnSamuel]

Those of us that own shares still believe in the viability of the company and you referring to six month old post shows you are a lacking in understanding of why we might feel that way, especially when the ads targeted Black Friday sales. ALL retailers promote heavy discounting on that weekend and I am sorry you were not aware of that.

No need to respond.

BTW: there are not any concerns about SEC violations here.

[bar1080]

"That 'aggressive retailer' is the Ascena Retail Group consisting of Lane Bryant, Ann Taylor, Dress Barn, Catherines and such. Shops grandma loved, and now mostly closed amid CV. Guess Christmas wasn't so great. Shares were vastly higher when that posted in November. A 1-for-20 reverse split came on December 18. Merry Christmas! Scoop them up for about a buck now.

Delisting from the NYSE may loom if shares fall under a buck. Also great news." Think of the cost savings?
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/09/stock-delist.asp

[JohnSamuel]

bar1080, you need to clarify exactly who you are accusing of pumping when you made the following statement:

"This kind of pumping borders on fraud."

[JohnSamuel]

That was Black Friday.
I won't waste time explaining what that means to apparel retailers.

[RyGuy]

Again while I understand there has been a huge decrease in revenues for 2 months. Every single apparel retailer has the same issues.

If an appropriate valuation model prior to COVID-19 was (5x's EBITDA + Cash - Debt) then these two companies are the most undervalued of a list of 35 retailers.

(5x's EBITDA + Cash - Debt) Current Price & Percentage of Value
(ASNA - $19.92) $1.16 = 6% Debt/Sales ratio of 27%
(FRAN - $27.19) $2.47 = 9%
(EXPR - $8.93) $1.71 = 19%
(JILL - $1.96) $0.47 = 24% Debt/Sales ratio of 39%
(TLRD - $4.17) $1.05 = 25% Debt /Sales ratio of 48%
(GPS - $30.00) $7.63 = 25%
(TLYS - $4.52) $4.74 = 26%
(CHS - $4.34) $1.31 = 30%
(CAL - $15.41) $6.78 = 44% Debt/Sales ratio of 20%
(LB - $17.08) $11.58 = 67% Debt/Sales ratio of 50%
(PVH - $34.26) $43.64 = 127% Debt/Sales ratio of 35%
(LE - $5.66) $7.26 = 128% Debt/ Sales ratio of 20%
(VFC - $25.69) $56.56 = 220% Debt/Sales ratio of 22%

ASNA's prices makes no sense

[Toronto_Trader]

Nice little pump earlier today. This stock is a flippers dream.

$ASNA

[Toronto_Trader]

I’m wondering if this falls back below $1 and retests its $0.90 low.

$ASNA

[Toronto_Trader]

Down today after a little teaser pump yesterday. Market cap inching towards $9,000,000 now.

$ASNA

[RyGuy]

This is very interesting...

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/05/07/2029684/0/en/Brookfield-to-Create-5-Billion-Retail-Revitalization-Program.html

Brookfield to Create $5 Billion Retail Revitalization Program

May 07, 2020 12:00 ET | Source: Brookfield Asset Management Inc
BROOKFIELD NEWS, May 07, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Brookfield Asset Management Inc. (“Brookfield”) (TSX: BAM.A, NYSE: BAM) today announced the launch of a Retail Revitalization Program (“the Program”) to bring much needed capital and assist with the recapitalization of retail businesses with operations in the major markets in which Brookfield operates globally. The Program, which will be funded by Brookfield and its institutional partners, will focus on non-control investments in retail businesses to assist with their capital needs during this period of dislocation. Brookfield is targeting $5 billion to be put toward this Program.

This Program will be led by Ron Bloom, Managing Partner and Vice Chairman of Brookfield’s Private Equity Group, who was a principal architect of the restructuring and rejuvenation of the automobile industry on behalf of the U.S. government during the 2008 financial crisis. “This initiative is being designed to assist medium sized enterprises in getting back on their feet. We believe this is a critical component to getting the economy moving again, and we would like to partner with companies and entrepreneurs that can draw on our capital and expertise to stabilize and grow their business,” stated Bloom.

In addition to capital, Brookfield intends to make available its resources and expertise as one of the largest global investors in both real estate and private equity, with a focus on supporting long-term business performance. “We look forward to contributing capital and expertise to support the retail sector through this time and position businesses for long-term success,” added Bloom.

The Retail Revitalization Program will focus on retail businesses that have $250 million or greater in normalized revenues and have been operating for at least two years.

Brookfield Asset Management Inc. is a leading global alternative asset manager with over US$515 billion of assets under management across real estate, infrastructure, renewable power, private equity and credit. Brookfield owns and operates long-life assets and businesses, many of which form the backbone of the global economy. Utilizing its global reach, access to large-scale capital and operational expertise, Brookfield offers a range of alternative investment products to investors around the world—including public and private pension plans, endowments and foundations, sovereign wealth funds, financial institutions, insurance companies and private wealth investors. Brookfield Asset Management is listed on the New York and Toronto stock exchanges under the symbol BAM and BAM.A respectively. For more information, please visit our website at www.brookfield.com.

[RyGuy]

Looks like we have a new EVP General Counsel and Secretary named Michael Veitenheimer. It appears he was General Counsel at Michaels for over 11 years before retiring in April 2019.

[Toronto_Trader]

I have my eye on this one. Market cap is $13 million. O/s is small at less than 10 million. I could see this running to a few bucks but where is the bottom? I’m waiting on some good chart action. Positive divergence isn’t quite certain yet but we may start to see a more definitive signal as we move through the month.

$ASNA