Ardelyx Inc (ARDX)

[Monksdream]

ARDX new 52 week high

[Cosa]

3 weeks of consolidation between $8 - $9. Maybe February 22 will give us a reason to break higher.

[ErnieBilco]

Wanna bet that lil weasel Rosenbaum is dumping again?

They should revoke all his shares if he is only going to sabotage all bullish moves with his greed

[ErnieBilco]

Came across this this morning.

7 Small-Cap Stocks to Buy for Big Gains in 2024

Ardelyx (NASDAQ:ARDX) is a Massachusetts-based pharmaceutical company.

Its top drugs are Ibsrela, which is used to treat irritable bowel syndrome; and Xphozah, a treatment for chronic kidney disease. It also has potential treatments in its platform for hyperkalemia and metabolic acidosis.

The company projects Ibsrela revenue for 2023 to reach $80 million, which is a solid number for its first full calendar year. Management believes that the number will grow to $140 million to $150 million in 2024, eventually reaching $1 billion annually.

Xphozah was only approved in October and sales began a month later. Ardelyx says it expects $2.5 million in sales for the first quarter.

The company is growing fast. Revenue in the third quarter was $56.4 million, up from just $5 million a year ago. The stock is up 166% in the last year and gets an “A” rating in the Portfolio Grader.

[ErnieBilco]

Man that chart is muyyy sexiest - big move up coming.

[ErnieBilco]

It looks to be ready to breakout - ready for the big leg up from here.

[Monksdream]

ARDX new 52 week high

[ErnieBilco]

I don't know flags - I only use candlesticks and directional movement and do pretty well. I'm very long on ARDX and look to cash out eventually in bits and pieces on the way up.

[Cosa]

Bull flag breakout to $12 possibly?

[Cosa]

I hope you're right! I'm exercising $2 calls today. If revenue plays out how the company forecast, we could see 2-4x in SP in the coming years.

[ErnieBilco]

Don't think it sees $6 - maybe $7.50 on the bottom but the chart appears to be ready to head north again back into the $9s

[Cosa]

The move up from $6 - $8 was pretty violent. Probably from MM's covering the naked calls, then shorts covering (like a mini gama/short squeeze). Then retail jumping in pushing it from $8 - $9. I'm not a day trader, so not good at reading charts. But it appears to me that there is no support until $6 range. I think we can fall to this area and maybe even into $5's. If it gets this far down, it would be an excellent time to enter or reload. But hey if we moon from here I'm all for it! This is a SOLID long term investment, so even buying in the $9's is fine as long as you're patient. All my opinion and I have no clue what I'm doing, but I did play monopoly as a kid which may qualify me as an expert.

[TimelessNavigator85]

Seems it just likes bluer skies, OK with me....Wish this drug was around for my dear Rebecca.

[Cosa]

With all the price targets being raised. Tutes may start unloading onto retail. I'm bullish but just be aware of the manipulation, look how long it took us to get here.

https://investorshub.advfn.com/uimage/uploads/2024/1/11/halroardx_2024.png

[ErnieBilco]

Nice healthy pullback preparing for the next leg up soon.

[Ywang1]

Good morning ARDXers!

What’s the target price after June? Many thanks!

[ErnieBilco]

Could it be another $1 day for 3 in a row?

[ErnieBilco]

I'm riding freebies from here on out, there were times when I wanted to dump it but with all the high hopes I decided it could be an excellent long term hold. I'm in at $1.13 for a few years now.

[buddynika]

Sold all i had on Jan 4 after riding this POS for 2 and a half years, This crap never ran on any good news, then out of the blue she runs right after i sold, So thank me for this big swing, I hate this pos company and Raab is a crook.

[Outcast27]

Glad I hung on to a few shares.....Always thought this would be a winner,,

[Cosa]

Epic 2 days! All those longs from 2020 and 2021 can also get out with profits. Great way to start the year

[JoeWo]

Ardelyx's (ARDX) Highest Stock Price: $32.89 (on 12-03-2014)

[Monksdream]

ARDX new 52 week high

[Whalatane]

Congrats ...strong guidance on IBSRELA sales . I don't think they have an EU partner yet so NVS is probably interested in Co as a BO
JMO
Kiwi

[Cosa]

Finally it’s running!!! Cheers guys!

[Cosa]

Finally it’s running!!! Cheers guys!

[ErnieBilco]

This is gonna be hotter than a Tesla battery fire.

[enthalpy]

They will drop the prices for medicare approval. Then sales will fly. Im waiting for it.

[enthalpy]

Im sticking with ardx and its 2 approved drugs. They have time to tweak prices. This is a wait and hold.

[Whalatane]

If the Co had priced XPHOZAH along the lines of IBSRELA ( it is the same drug ...just different strength / dosing ) then uptake might be as you expect .
However even if insurers cover, my wife , who prescribes to these patients doubts many of them could afford or be willing to pay , the expected copay the way X is currently priced
Chk out UNCY ...another phosphate lowering binder . Huge vol between Xmas -New Year .
If interested respond on that board .
Good luck
Kiwi

[enthalpy]

I understand that the X drug will take about 6 months for getting approved on the medcare and medcaid list of drugs for coverage.

Supposedly 40% of patients are covered is standard insurance.

Analyst projection of kidney sales were based on a very slow market penetration rate similar to the last many new kidney drugs in a crowded market. The analyst did mention that if the drug has a fast market perpetration that their estimates could be way off.

Ill wait thisvone out. 2024 is projected to have 300 million in revenue but i personally think the adoption of the second drug will rock and that sales will be over 500 million. Especially after June the scripts will increase after medcare approves it. They are using speciality pharmacies who are more intune with getting the drug covered by insurance than a standard pharmacy.

[Whalatane]

I think this was the expectation before the ER

XPHOZAH should likely price in this range, midpoint $12,600 / yr. Which is similar to IBSRELA. Apply 25% discount to Medicare (65% of all CKD patients) and that nets to $9,450 per year.

Instead Co decided to price at $35,400 a yr .......so expect push back from insurers
JMO
Kiwi

[Whalatane]

Well I will be the first to admit that I don't fully understand how Medicare / Medicaid work re drug costs so feel free to enlighten me..
My understanding
1) Those on Medicare ( and probably Medicaid ) can't use a company coupons ( used to lower cost to purchaser initially as a sale technique )
2 ) Being a brand drug .. thus non preferred with probably a tier 5 rating .....both medicare and medicaid patients will have co pays ( at least until their deductibles are used up ) ...which I think is around 30% of the cost for Medicare and 20% of the cost for Medicaid.
So that means around $900 a mth copay for Medicare patients and around $600 for those on Medicaid.

The majority of dialysis patients I think are over 65 and considered mostly low / some moderate income so I don't see widespread uptake of this drug .
Re potential BO
The fact they don't have a EU partner is probably a good thing in the short term . It will likely make NVS ( large EU presence ) more interested.

ARDX priced Xphozah at a premium for dialysis patients ...compared to what they charge for IBSC patients for same drug ...Tenanapor .
IMHO that was BOD decision and a mistake . CFO apparently agrees given the size of his recent sale . He initiated his 10b sales program in Sept and acted on it between Xmas and New year while most are away ...classic
JMO
Kiwi

[ErnieBilco]

Free money ???? What did the options cost him 99 cents ? At least we know the CFO takes care of himself.
I think it was more end of year selling but who knows the chart looked great and still looks good if we can break the downtrend next week.

[enthalpy]

The large quantity of orders will come Q2/Q3. I will hold 2 to 3 years for $30 or the BO which ever comes first.

[enthalpy]

Non issue once its approved for medcare/medicaid coverage probably around June!!! They started high probably to negotiate and settle at 2k imo for medicare/medicaid. June is the china approval. hopefully we get a EU partnership soon.

[Whalatane]

WT. Any comment on the large insider sell by the CFO ?
IMHO ARDX has priced Xphozah ...close to $3k a month ...tier 5 so patient copay is around $1,000 a month .....out of the reach of most dialysis patients ( majority are on Medicare / Medicaid )
Kiwi

[ErnieBilco]

There is the pullback I was looking for, time to move over $7 now

[ErnieBilco]

Raymond James puts a $12 price target on it - this is getting better every day.

[ErnieBilco]

Symbol Buy Outperform Hold Underperform Sell
ARDX@NASDAQ 6(+1) 4(0) 0(0) 0(0) 0(0)

[Cosa]

Go Baby go!

[Milesblue42]

6 in the Morning.......

No, not ICE-T 😀

[ErnieBilco]

I've never in my 12 years of trading have I ever even considered a stop loss order - too easy to make sure you lose IMO

Chart is still spectacular - I'm lovin it.

[JoeWo]

People should not put in stop loss orders for this one. MM's will steal your shares.

[ErnieBilco]

No worries, it needed that retrace before it can march higher IMO

[ErnieBilco]

Certainly looks like it could break above $6 on it's journey towards $9 (until they revise that target upward into 2024).

I absolutely love the action shown on the chart, it wants to move higher IMO.

[Cosa]

$1.50? Sounds like you just look at charts and do little DD. Nothing wrong with that and I'm sure it is profitable. But the company's revenue is on the incline and the newly approved X will add to the revenue stream. The market cap at $1.3B is slightly bloated for its current sales but it is justified by the potential of X.

[Milesblue42]

Might We see 6 by Friday??

[umiak]

Company will grow with 2 new approved drugs, I'm waiting for a pull back
to $4.50 to start buying. Every time the stock hits a high not necessarily the high
eventually it trades down at least $1.50. Could $5.45 be the exception? Maybe but chasing
a high has more than often turned out to be a lack of patience.

[Cosa]

I wrote some calls for January. I'm thinking MM's are going to magically push the price below $5 come the $19th, that OI Is huge compared to rest of strikes. Sold all my $3 strike and almost all $2 strike, going to exercise the rest. I was going to hold all and exercise, but MM's have a huge hold on this. Which was obvious with the FDA approval of X. Hopefully X and I scripts continue ramping up throughout next year. Get this to the $6-$8 range