Ardelyx Inc (ARDX)

[ErnieBilco]

Thanks for your CNN analysis of Trump's ability to fire up fossil fuels - THERE IS NOT MORE DRILLING UNLESS ITS FOR FANTASIES THAT BIDEN HASN'T, SORRY OBAMA HAS BEEN MOVING TO DESTROY AMERICA'S ENERGY SOURCES IN FAVOR OF HIS BELOVED TERRORIST RUN SHITHOLES AROUND THE WORLD.

This board is for ARDX so let's get back on track.

[Cosa]

If they thought that was going to continue they wouldn't have done what they did today

That's incorrect. It clearly says that the policy and the manner in which CMS intends to implement it are likely to cause significant restrictions on the use of XPHOZAH. Restrictions mean limiting how and when it is to be used.

[Whalatane]

Well eventual sales worldwide ...or at least US, EU and Japan ...if the Kidney Care Act passes and the EU countries agree to reimburse generously .
What's the status in the EU ????

From quick search ...no deal / sales in the EU ...maybe they looking for a partner
Kiwi

[Whalatane]

Dialysis bundles are fixed payments from the Govt to the Health providers doing the dialysis .
The way its set up is that any money saved ...is kept by the dialysis provider .
This incentives the private dialysis Co's US Renal , DaVita to push generics for pho lowering even if the MD in the dialysis center thought Xphazoh would be better for the patient .
Thats the essence of why ARDX wants the Kidney Care Act passed ...that keeps them out of the dialysis bundle for 2 yrs .

Re sales last qt smashing expectations . Don't read to much into that . If they thought that was going to continue they wouldn't have done what they did today
JMO
Kiwi

[Johnstonj27]

Xphazoh was supposed to be and 1 billion dollar per year rev drug.

[Cosa]

In my opinion management read through the policy and realized it is not best for the company. And at the rate Xphozah is being prescribed, I believe they are correct. The sales last quarter smashed through expectations.

Ardelyx said its analysis of the CMS policy to include oral-only medicines in the PPS and the calendar year 2025 ESRD PPS Proposed Rule released on June 27, revealed that the policy and the manner in which CMS intends to implement it are likely to cause significant restrictions on the use of XPHOZAH for all patients because it interferes with the essential and appropriate shared decision-making between healthcare professionals and their patients.
From Erica Kollman article.

[The Canes]

There's ZERO logic to your faith in Trump's love affair with oil. Zero! Under the current administration more drilling has taken place than under Trump. More permits to drill too. Our country produces more barrels per day than any other country in the world. In addition we're a capitalistic society. Even if the oil companies produced more than we consume they're not going to sell us gas at a discount. That's a Fox fantasy. The companies answer to their shareholders. They have a corporate charter. Your logic is nothing short of irrational. PERIOD!

[Whalatane]

I just listened to the CC .
Buying ARDX here is a huge bet on the Kidney Care Act being passed by the Senate . It's apparently passed by the Congress.
The Kidney Care act allows new oral dialysis drugs to remain outside the dialysis bundle for at least 2 yrs .
The problem with the dialysis bundle is that it forces prescribers to shun expensive drugs if cheap generic are available even if the generics are poorly tolerated.
The Tdapa process thats due to start at EOY would mean ARDX would have limited access due to being an expensive drug in the dialysis bundle

I thought their action was more about avoiding the coupon restriction but its actually about being able to have free access to market for 2 yrs before dialysis bundle restrictions

So buying here is a bet on the Kidney Care Act passing in the Senate and becoming law.

Kiwi

[Cosa]

I shot those numbers out of my A55 lol. But you get the picture. Even if its flat at $150M for year 2025, to trade at $300M market cap is highly unlikely. I think from here it will see 50 - 100% gain within a few months. Good luck

[Whalatane]

Ardelyx currently expects full-year 2024 U.S. net product sales revenue for IBSRELA to be between $140.0 and $150.0 million.

Doubt you will see another $150m rev from Xphazoh to get to your $300m total rev by next yr ( ie by EOY )

Co will still have $ 170 m cash on hand .
It's not going down 80% from here based on COH and IBSRELA rev .

How much does Xphazoh cost if you can use their discount coupon ??? Anyone know .....cos thats the reason IMHO not to go the Medicare route

https://xphozah-hcp.com/dosing/

Call ArdelyxAssist
877-527-3927 Option 2

Kiwi

[Cosa]

So you're waiting for the market cap to go $300M, which is basically what their revenue will probably be next year? That doesn't make sense to me. I don't think this will go down another 80% from here. That would put the share price at pre Xphozah approval in 2022. I guess we will agree to disagree here.

[ErnieBilco]

Only way I buy at this point is if I see my original buy price appear again, with the lawyers circling ARDX it could realistically go even lower than the $1.13 I bought in at years ago, just so damn glad a friend of mine talked me into letting go of my $30 dream and sold out in the mid $7s.

I do still manage a very small position in my brother's account but the other 6 accounts are empty.

[ErnieBilco]

Piper Sandler has the most realistic price target of $7 while the others must be gooberment economists with the fake outperform targets.

[Johnstonj27]

Used to hold a big position in this and Raab plays games with retail shareholders always has. Multiple times now have seen this tank on shareholders like this with all the PT's getting dropped like he works hand and hand with the analyst and hedges. Watch you will get news silence all the way to 10q.

[ErnieBilco]

Somebody told something to someone to create the massive drop of 31% on quadruple volume -

Not sure it's even close to bottom yet - What happens when the rest of you shareholders find out what they whispered to the buddies?

[Cosa]

Added some today. I'm pretty sure the numbers Q2 numbers for the next ER will turn this right around.

[enthalpy]

So pissed. He should have played ball.

[Johnstonj27]

M. Raab should be investigated for providing inside information I would suspect it. Seems like too many times the shareholders have just gotten completely bent over by him.

[ErnieBilco]

As always, very good well thought out information is appreciated.

My biggest gripe is the insiders selling almost constantly doesn't give me a positive feeling.

Even a fantastic product can be destroyed by greedy management and that is the feeling I get looking at all the "incentives" and "RSU" they bestow upon themselves at every opportunity.

THAT IS WHY I'M SITTING THIS ONE OUT putting my money to work on up and coming gainers in many different industries.

Right now I'm building my energy sector holdings for a Trump return to oil and gas being good not evil like it is now.

[Whalatane]

Their pricing for X was always F'd up IMHO .
My wife rounds dialysis clinics and is authorized to prescribe and she said ...I can prescribe X but most of my patients are Medicare / Medicaid and none of them are willing to pay the monthly copay ...which I estimated to be at least $700 - $900 a mth .

My guess is the Co hopes to get the monthly copay down to around $400 a mth . It's probably around $600 a month using the current coupon for non Medicare patients .
More sales but less profit per sale ...helped by passage of legislation before Congress .

Wether patients are willing to pay $400 a mth rather then trying to tolerate current generic binders ( low cost ) ...remains to be seen

But Co must be trading almost at the IBSRELA value alone at these levels. IBSRELA scripts are strong and copay more reasonable for a population that is usually younger and working age

Kiwi

[ErnieBilco]

A 27% drop is a huge drop IMO, If I had any faith in the company it would be a reasonable place to buy.

I'm just not a buyer up here and it wouldn't be the first time I let my gut cost me gains, there is just something about this group that gives me the willies.

[Whalatane]

I'm buying down 27%
I had sold ARDX on approval and then the stock continued to ramp ...so have been out of it for some time .
I didn't like how they priced Xphazoh for dialysis patients ...they are charging a premium for the same drug used by IBSC patients ( Tenanapour )
Currently the monthly retail price is close to $3,000 a month for dialysis patients .
As a tier 5 formulary drug the co pay can be as high as a third of the retail price for Medicare patients who can't use the Co's coupon.

So the question is ..... if Xphazoh is not covered by Medicare ......will these patients be able to use the X coupon and effectively be able to buy X at a lower price.
Medicare patients can't use Co's coupons .

The legislation to keep X out of the dialysis bundle has a good chance of passing ....so should make it easier to prescribe .

The other question is if more patients can now use the X coupon ...will ARDX make any $ as the coupon has to be a large enough discount to reduce copay lower then what Medicare patients would be paying .

Small spec buy on my part
Info only. NOT investment advice
Kiwi

[ErnieBilco]

Will be interesting to see if the insiders accelerate their selling beyond the obscene amounts they have been selling weekly and monthly.

Looks like the party may be coming to an end due to greedy management.

[Johnstonj27]

Watching this what an A hole M. Raab is.

[Whalatane]

Well it looks as tho ARDX is making a huge bet on the pending legislation to keep Xphazoh out of the dialysis bundle

We believe that the proposed bipartisan legislation extending the exclusion of oral-only medications from the Medicare ESRD PPS is the best option to ensure continued patient access, and we call on Congress to pass the bill.

As I've posted previously ....about 80% of dialysis patients are either Medicare or Medicaid and can't use the coupon the Co is currently offering . So these patients have about a $700-$800 monthly copay which few are willing to pay

I'm assuming that if this legislation pass's then all could use the coupon ...correct if necessary
Kiwi

[Whalatane]

Well it will certainly help the stock ( and sales of Xphazoh ) if X is kept out of the dialysis bundle which should give prescribers more freedom to prescribe .
House passed the new law ( to keep new pho lowering meds out of the bundle ) and I guess market now expects it to pass in the Senate
Kiwi

[enthalpy]

It was a 40% fibonacci pullback and imo a potential buyout or just the start of the 2nd wave up over 6 months. I'm expecting 12 by end of Q3.

[ErnieBilco]

Hopefully it is just the beginning or a huge rebound - time will tell. Also did some adds on RNLX on its smackdown.

ARDX made a big move on it fluffish news about educating medicos about irritable bowel symptom. I really don't where their expertise lies to qualify them for such a project but what the hell it got the stock to move and that's what the insiders are all about, moving the stock to sell more at a higher pps for themselves. JMHO

[Whalatane]

Well UNCY worked for U today
Good luck
Kiwi

[ErnieBilco]

I completely understand your position, I'm just saying that even with the destruction of the share price, I personally like the risk/reward at a 40 cent pps vs the ARDX at $6+. All I see ARDX doing is enriching themselves with freeflowing shares almost monthly. I'm just a hillbiilie so that greed upsets me and sparked my total exit from ARDX.

I understand you have a deeper understanding of the medical things I just buy stocks I think I can make money on.

[Whalatane]

Ernie ...they had time to get the extra enrolled patients evaluated . The risk is that so many were dropping out therefore they needed to enroll more .
The danger is ...if enrollees are dropping out so much ...good luck getting OLC widely accepted .
I still hold some shares and will follow but right now I'm not very positive on the Co
Kiwi

[ErnieBilco]

I did not listen to the CC, I usually don't so that is not unusual. Right now I can get so much more bang for my $$.
I never overload any position so I'm comfortable waiting to see how it turns out.
The 25% shortage of evaluated patients versus enrolled, but as I remember they increased the enrollment towards the end of the trial so they may not have had time to get the extra enrollees evaluated.

[Whalatane]

Good luck. Were you able to listen to UNCY's CC . It kept cutting out for me .
Did they ever explain why 106 were enrolled but only 71 evaluated ... to lose roughly 25% of enrollment in such a short time needs some convincing explaining
Kiwi

[Whalatane]

I sold most of my UNCY immediately on the results . Obviously markets wasn't buying what the Ceo was trying to sell during the CC.
Re crowded binder market ...it's mainly generic Sevelmar ( Renvela ? ) I think and some on Fosrenol .
80% of dialysis patients are on Medicare / Medicaid and can't use the coupon and most won't pay the $700-$800 monthly copay ....unless Co comes up with a different plan for them
20% of dialysis patients can use the coupon ....so theres your low hanging fruit.

Kiwi

[enthalpy]

That explains the drop then.

[ErnieBilco]

UNCY They just doubled the AS 7 days ago from 200mm to 400mm

I'm buying the drops

[enthalpy]

UNCY will be reverse splitting imo. Good luck on that with a crowded binders market.

[Whalatane]

Oh cheer up . UNCY's trial ended with a whimper not a bang ( enrolled 106 but only had 71 to evaluate ....raised some questions as to market place viability ) .
So OLC as a competitor now in doubt.
Legislation was passed by the house , on its way to the Senate that will keep Xphazoh out of the dialysis bundle ( thats a good thing ) .
ARDX is aggressively marketing X on websites visited by Nephrologists so even if the Medicare / Medicaid dialysis patients can't use the coupon ...at least about 20 % of dialysis patients that aren't on a Govt plan, can .

Ibresla scripts still strong

Kiwi

[ErnieBilco]

Looks like the decline is going to accelerate from here. Unless they can put out some worthless fluff - anymore employee RSUs and it could see $4 - $3 in short order.

[ErnieBilco]

More CEO selling - this week 237K shares - these people all have about a qtr million shares left to dump but don't worry they will grant themselves as much as they may want - NEVER SEEN ANYTHING LIKE THIS GANG.

[ErnieBilco]

OMG they continue to make the whole company about giving away stock to insiders and employees instead of drugs to patients that need them. They have turned ARDX into their own personal ATM machine.

[Whalatane]

Thx for the DD
Kiwi

[ErnieBilco]

This value they claim is based on fairytale assumptions and really mean nothing.

Again these preferred warrants of many different letters A,B,C are milestone based not share price based - this may be how they were able to overvalue them best on possible outcomes, if the milestones don't happen the warrants are worthless unless they sneak back in and come up with a different gimmick to allow the handing out of no cost Preferred classes of stock. This is not a normal way to do warrants but I guess they had to spike the punchbowl to get the hedgies to drink the koolaid.

[ErnieBilco]

Here is what I see, nowhere does it mention an exercise price on any of the warrants they handed out to the hedgies. It is really based on milestones rather than share price but what I believe to be free flowing warrants that do not cost the holders a penny to exercise rather they will probably automatically convert at time of each milestone for each different class of warrant. It's really a screw the shareholders way of presenting hidden warrants to the monied investors and insiders is my guess.

, each share of Series A-1 Preferred Stock is, subject to the Stockholder Approval (as defined below), convertible
into a unit (“Unit”) consisting of (i) shares of common stock, par value $0.001 per share, of the Company (the “Common Stock”) and, if applicable, shares of Series A-2 Convertible Preferred Stock, par value $0.001 per share, of the Company (the “Series A-2 Preferred Stock”), in lieu of Common Stock, (ii) a tranche A warrant to acquire shares of Series A-3 Convertible Preferred Stock (the “Tranche A Warrant”), (iii) a tranche B warrant to acquire shares of Series A-4 Convertible Preferred Stock (the “Tranche B Warrant”), and (iv) a tranche C warrant to acquire shares of Series A-5 Convertible Preferred Stock (the “Tranche C Warrant”, together with the Tranche A Warrant and the Tranche B Warrant, the “Warrants”). The shares of Series A-3 Convertible Preferred Stock, Series A-4 Convertible Preferred Stock and Series A-5 Convertible Preferred Stock issuable upon exercise of the Warrants collectively are referred to herein as the “Preferred Warrant Shares”. The Tranche A warrants for an aggregate exercise price of approximately $25 million are exercisable until 21 days following the Company’s announcement of receipt of FDA approval for Renazorb, the Tranche B warrants for an aggregate exercise price of approximately $25 million are exercisable until 21 days following the Company’s announcement of receipt of Transitional Drug Add-On Payment Adjustment (“TDAPA”) approval for Renazorb, and the Tranche C Warrant for an aggregate exercise price of approximately $50 million are exercisable until 21 days following four quarters of commercial sales of Renazorb following receipt of TDAPA approval. Subject to the terms and limitations contained in the Certificate of Designation, the Series A-1 Preferred Stock issued in the Offering will not become convertible until the Company’s stockholders approve the issuance of the Units upon conversion of the Series A-1 Preferred Stock and the issuance of all Common Stock upon conversion of the Series A Preferred Stock (as defined below), among other items (the “Stockholder Approval”). On the tenth (10th) Trading Day (as defined in the Certificate of Designation) following the announcement of the Stockholder Approval, each share of Series A-1 Preferred Stock shall automatically convert into a Unit. Subject to the limitations set forth in the Certificate of Designation, at the option of the holder, each share of Series A-2 Preferred Stock, Series A-3 Convertible Preferred Stock, Series A-4 Convertible Preferred Stock or Series A-5 Convertible Preferred Stock shall be convertible into one share of Common Stock.

https://www.otcmarkets.com/filing/conv_pdf?id=16469095&guid=lyQ-kasTiMf6B3h

[Whalatane]

Ernie. Chk the warrants for UNCY issued in early March 2023 .
They apparently used the Monte Carlo pricing strategy that gives these warrants option like qualities , without the usual time decay ...my basic understanding .
They were issued around 50c a share from what I can determine ...so huge upside if trial succeeds.
Kiwi

[Whalatane]

Wow

As of the issuance date (March 3, 2023), the estimated fair value of the warrants was $2.8 million, which increased to $13.2 million as of March 31, 2023 based on updated assumptions and inputs

From $2.8 m value to $13.2 m value in less then 30 days !!!! some supercharged warrants

Kiwi

[Whalatane]

Interesting Thx
Are you referring to this https://ir.unicycive.com/news/detail/44/unicycive-announces-up-to-130-million-financing-to

This is March 2023

Pursuant to the securities purchase agreement, the Company will issue to purchasers (i) $30 million in shares of the Company’s Series A Convertible Preferred Stock and (ii) three tranches of warrants that are exercisable for convertible preferred stock as follows:

The Tranche A warrants for an aggregate exercise price of approximately $25 million are exercisable until 21 days following the Company’s announcement of receipt of FDA approval for Renazorb;
The Tranche B warrants for an aggregate exercise price of approximately $25 million are exercisable until 21 days following the Company’s announcement of receipt of TDAPA approval for Renazorb; and
The Tranche C warrants for an aggregate exercise price of approximately $50 million are exercisable until 21 days following public disclosure of four quarters of commercial sales of Renazorb following receipt of TDAPA approval.
Shares of Series A Convertible Preferred Stock will be issued at a price of $1,000.00 per share. All of the shares of preferred stock, the warrants and the securities underlying such shares of preferred stock and warrants, are being offered by Unicycive.

Proceeds from the offering will be used to support the Company’s NDA submission with the FDA for approval of Renazorb for the treatment of hyperphosphatemia in the U.S. and, if approved, for the commercial launch of Renazorb in the U.S.

and

As of the issuance date (March 3, 2023), the estimated fair value of the warrants was $2.8 million, which increased to $13.2 million as of March 31, 2023 based on updated assumptions and inputs.
These recently issued warrants are distinct from the warrants associated with Unicycive's July 2021 initial public offering, which were exercisable for common stock at $6.00 per share for a 5-year period.

The March 2023 warrants represent a more complex instrument tied to the company's financing needs and clinical progress.

Kiwi

[ErnieBilco]

Warrants don't seem to be anywhere near being in the money. The 2021 warrants have a $6 exercise price(at least at time of issue) Current price of the stock is under 90 cents. The warrants are not registered that I could find because UNCY probably won't register them until financiers are ready to exercise them. I love trading warrants without wanting to ever exercise them, public warrants are a very cost effective way to bet on companies that issue them.

Unless anyone can find a change to the exercise price, there is no purpose to exercise them til commons break above $6

JMHO having traded warrants for the last 8 years without ever exercising a single one, but then again I not a hedge fund.

[Whalatane]

Well if the trial is considered a failure there probably won't be a capital raise. If successful I expect the hedge funds currently providing capital will exercise their warrants .
Not an expert in the field but think this is what will happen if trial succeeds

The key points on how warrants provide cash to companies:
Companies issue warrants along with other securities like stocks or bonds to make the offering more attractive to investors.
Warrants give the holder the right, but not obligation, to purchase a set number of the company's shares at a fixed strike price within a certain time period.
If the market price of the stock rises above the strike price before expiration, warrant holders are incentivized to exercise their warrants by paying the strike price to the company.
The cash paid by investors to exercise the warrants provides capital directly to the issuing company in exchange for newly issued shares.
However, if warrants are not exercised before expiration, the company does not receive any cash proceeds from the unexercised warrants.
So in summary, warrants act as a future source of potential capital for companies, but the cash is only received when and if the warrants are actually exercised by investors before expiry.

Also https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/NASDAQ/unicycive-therapeutics-UNCY/stock-news/93487624/unicycive-announces-50-million-private-placement

Kiwi

[enthalpy]

When is the capital raise going to happen on UNCY? After the results of the binder study?