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I can see many of your trades... and not just "a small sample from Friday."
My advice boils down to this: "Never Short Stocks." I decided that over 40 years ago while watching a college buddy get wiped out quickly. Note that I've often posted that Buffett never shorts, after his bad experience doing it 50 years ago.
GL
Here is just a small sample from Friday for you. Minimized badly but still nice gains. Some people work all week for money you can make shorting in a few minutes.
I do get for those that are clueless about trading and don't have the skills the best approach is to slowly put away money over time and let markets work long term. Within 10-20 year time frame gains will exponentially add up as market over time appreciates. Some of us like to make money every day though vs playing a monkey that sits on a position for years.
12/16/16 Sold Short 1,500 of DRYS @ $6.06 9,085.81 12/16/16
12/16/16 Bought To Cover 750 of DRYS @ $5.5667 -4,179.02
12/16/16 Bought To Cover 750 of DRYS @ $5.83 (Order #4278) -4,376.49Bought To Cover 1,500 of DRYS @ $5.204 -7,809.99
12/16/16 Sold Short 1,500 of DRYS @ $5.27 7,900.83
12/16/16 Sold Short 1,400 of DCIX @ $4.08 (Order #4271) 5,707.88
2/16/16 Bought To Cover 1,400 of DCIX @ $3.93 (Order #4277) -5,505.99
2/16/16 Bought To Cover 2,000 of DCIX @ $3.8454 -7,694.79
12/16/16 Sold Short 2,000 of DCIX @ $4.02 8,035.83
though all these years you still haven't figured out that I am not an investor. I am day trader. If you suck at shorting doesn't mean other people do.
Andy, you'd be among the world's greatest investors if you turned all your advice 180 degrees. As for me, I've still never shorted a stock in my life, or regretted that.
So Many Risks To ConsiderThe Biggest Market Risk For The Rest Of 2016
Beyond fundamentals, the U.S. Presidential election looms as a short-term downside risk in the coming weeks and potentially beyond depending on the outcome. Markets will likely feel reassured that an uncertainty has been removed come November 8 regardless of the outcome.
The Greatest Risk For The Rest Of 2016 is the following: It is the constitutional referendum vote in Italy set for Sunday, December 4. The outcome has the very real potential to turn what was an isolated incident in the United Kingdom leaving the European Union suddenly into a trend.
lot of bear markets start during election years and we got a zoo of an election coming up. Europe seems to be falling apart. ISIS. Bombings/mass killings all over. Zika. Real estate finally starting to cool some areas. Economy not doing all that great and interest rates been low forever. More and more $ being pulled out of funds month after month. So much bad news everywhere yet markets keep making new highs. Kinda reminds me of 2007, early 2008 but not ready to call the top.
Pull up a 5+ year chart on SPY. Looks like a promo pink sheet chart from years back lol It'll get ugly in a hurry when koolaid finally spills.
a short is just an upside down long, there is nothing wrong making money both ways. I'd agree with you to never short but only if you are clueless about trading and have 20 year plan putting away monthly savings in an index fund.
Started a new account couple weeks back where have per share vs per trade commissions. Got 208 short trades today lol
This could be the start of that recession, today. When the margin calls hit and your cushion for retirement is gone, you will tighten your belt.
JPMorgan: The odds of a recession starting in 12 months has hit a high
"The probability of a recession occuring (sp) within the next 12 months has never been higher during the current economic recovery. This is according to the economists at JPMorgan."
JPMorgan: The odds of a recession starting in 12 months has hit a high
MG: More than a decade ago a member had the sensible idea of creating an "average" for the most popular IHUB stocks: A Dow 30 or SP 500 for pennies, or at least pennies pumped on stock boards. He was an energetic and smart guy, but his creation didn't last long... perhaps a month or two as I recall.
No one bothers to track unflattering stats. LOL. Put another way, whomever invented baseball's Batting Average long ago... you can bet it wasn't a pitcher with a .040 average.
--
BTW, notice my frequent advice on this board... never short stocks. Andy seemed like a nice guy; I hope he took my advice and stuck to going long.
GM bar1080, congrats on never having bought a penny stock- a wretched memory for most all of us who have.
Yes, indexing is a no brainer for most- beats the "managers" consistently and little fee drain. A wonderful approach for the masses.
But indexing is not beating 99% of ihubbers, imo- though I get your point.
Hubbers who hang in to deep learn are often enjoying wonderful gains- I estimate those having 7-8 or more yrs tenure on their personal page.
Ultimately, no one knows the stat but it'd be interesting as heck to learn it. A survey would be useless- veracity would be out the window, lol.
Continued success bar!
MG
How The Next Market Crash Happens
How The Next Market Crash Happens
Summary
•A debt-driven recession has occurred twice in the 20th century.
•In the 21st century, we have not yet witnessed this type of recession, but it looks to be quickly approaching.
•Few will see the recession coming, as few have any reason to look at the overall state of company balance sheets.
Stocks Are About To Sink
Stocks Are About To Sink
Summary
•Fundamental analysis indicates that a collapse of the fundamental factors driving and sustaining the current U.S. bull market has begun.
•For the first time during this raging bull market, technical analysis also supports a broad market collapse.
•The S&P is likely to turn decisively south during the Summer of 2016 and continue to decline for one to two years.
Crash coming?
Date Open High Low Close Volume Adj Close
4/30/2015 2105.52 2105.52 2077.59 2085.51 4,509,680,000 2085.51 Down on increased volume.
4/29/2015 2112.49 2113.65 2097.41 2106.85 4,074,970,000 2106.85 Down on increased volume.
4/28/2015 2108.35 2116.04 2094.89 2114.76 3,546,270,000 2114.76
4/27/2015 2119.29 2125.92 2107.04 2108.92 3,438,750,000 2108.92 Down on increased volume.
4/24/2015 2112.80 2120.92 2112.80 2117.69 3,375,780,000 2117.69 ATH on less volume.
Volume analysis
Date Open High Low Close Volume Adj Close*
Dec 18, 2014 2,018.98 2,061.23 2,018.98 2,061.23* 4,703,380,000 2,061.23
Dec 17, 2014 1,973.77 2,016.75 1,973.77 2,012.89* 4,912,370,000 2,012.89
Dec 16, 2014 1,986.71 2,016.89 1,972.56 1,972.74** 4,958,680,000 1,972.74
Dec 15, 2014 2,005.03 2,018.69 1,982.26 1,989.63** 4,361,990,000 1,989.63
Dec 12, 2014 2,030.36 2,032.25 2,002.33 2,002.33 4,157,650,000 2,002.33
*Up on lower volume
**Down on higher volume
"time to go short again" Yet another nice call!
My long-held index funds are beating 99% of ihubbers.
oh thanks for VXX reminder. picked up 50 $29 calls 1.78
I am in Shanghai right now. Hard to trade. Not impossible though. I have calls on VXX and the short ETF.
yep thats why I want to be at least some early and add into the trade when it starts working. took a bunch 204 puts near highs this am, sold 1/2 for maybe .10-.15+ will try to ride rest as long as it doesn't start grinding to new highs again.
Those computers will move it fast. Finish today was strong. One might expect to see some follow through at the open. I don't think one will be able to go short easily once the sell off begins.
double top? who would have thought we'd be here 2 weeks ago. Crazy, curious what next week brings. Only got small puts hold but definitely looking to jump back in with both feet.
I was just hoping for under 50 dma for quick bank. Had 100 puts and woke up to SPY $1.5 red in the am. Of course by the open it was slightly red and almost green $1 now. ended up a wash, sold some gain, some even and rest for loss. will be eyeing to re-enter.
Shorting the top can be a good trade, but the way it came back from below the 200 DMA tells me a trading range until after Jan. The seasonal positive trends for Nov-Dec may keep the averages above the 200 DMA.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=djia&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p38090673899
QEs just about done? Waited long time thinking this will be trigger to downside. Markets mostly held up today but thinking its time to start establishing shorts a bit more aggressively. Took losses on my SPY puts from last week earlier in week but repositioned 6x position last hour today. GDP/jobs/Janet all before open tomorrow. gulp...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-28/u-s-futures-slip-before-fed-as-n-z-stocks-rise-with-oil.html
thinking this has to be near top. maybe 197 next week but doubt much higher. 8% bounce for SPY with no real pullback yet. picked up some 199 puts to hold 3.27.
think its time to start loading puts/shorts on this bounce. Market not far from highs but feel like top is in and this big bounce on SPY to 196 from 182 is like a gift IMO Seems like first real breakdown on stocks/indexes is always followed by huge bounce before new lows.
Have a feeling going to be sick tomorrow am. Was having a tough couple days and was getting beat up on SPY puts some today. Usually if wrong try to take small loss and reestablish but kept adding today. Sized into SPY 198 puts, about 200 contracts. Sold all eod to turn my day around to descent green but watch SPY gap down $2-3 tomorrow.
Buffet doesn't try to time it either :)
Tomorrow looks to be up, and time to go short again.
Quite correct about 2007/2008. Back then I waited daily for the market to decline amid the terrible housing news and later calamities regarding credit/banking and jobs.
I remember noticing tons of warning signs in mid-2006 from the formerly hottest home markets, such as Florida where speculation had reached insane levels. Florida home prices were collapsing by summer 2006. Still the stock market remained strong thru 2007 with only a moderate decline into early 2008. The bottom suddenly fell out in summer 2008. Low was around March 2009.
By 2009 many newbie stock players walked away from the market to their later regret. Timing these things is just about impossible. I don't try.
VIX ia so high nothing is cheap
The averages have finally broken down to point where the chart support is now gone from the 50 & 200 DMA, you have to look at the 200 WMA at Dow 14000
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=djia&p=D&yr=0&mn=16&dy=0&id=p90029751166
Long funds in OIL & GOLD....
surf1944 10% long 50% short & 40% cash
wheels finally fell off.... time to short any bigger bounces now.
I missed on a lot of trades too. I feel we get a pull back like in 2007-8. I am trading options, but keep my short ETF for long term gains.
in terms of news environment and markets reacting it is similar to 2007s into earlier 2008s. Lot of warning signs and bad news but market just ate it up and went higher. Then massive rug pull out of nowhere.
agreed. markets way over-extended and $ is likely place to be right now. not really a short with all major support trend lines still in tact and fed still buying it up. shorting bounces near resistance levels now might work but thats still trying to time top vs going with down trend.
As for trigger there might be no trigger. FED kinda negative comments=market higher. Russia invading Ukraine= quick pull and markets higher. Instability in Israel= markets higher. ISIS= markets higher. Ebola scare= markets higher. Perhaps we need good news for a trigger down lol
Major market sell-offs take place every 6-8 years on average, I don't mean a trade down to support levels at the 200 DMA, something like a 20-30% move could be setting up here, I have been trading through all bear moves since the 87 crash. When it drops, it will take 99% of the stocks with it, I tell clients, the best place to be right now is cash, don't worry about it setting in a cash fund for now. There is no reason to be invested in a market that may have 5% upside in the coming year vs. a 30% contraction. The short game is likely the next big play, but there has to be a trigger.
That trigger could be anything, I would be guessing if I throw one out there, but the set-up is in place for such an event.
20% long 40% short & 40% cash
that was close. start shorting bounces now for lower highs or wait for confirmation on trend break first?
man missed this last swing down. bought big SPY calls 5-10 min before bottom, got spooked with flush sold way early on bounce. left big $ on the table.
DJIA likely testing the 200 DMA again:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=djia&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p90029751166
Yes, I sold it in the morning yesterday, for a small profit and bought it back later in the day for less.
I have held on to the DXSSX too.
I am thinking this is the start of a longer term correction. Volume is heavier.
VXX sweet move
Also, back on the short side this week.......
10% long 50% short & 40% cash
seems like SPY big support now will be 193-194 area. Half way there from peak, if you get another nice down day or two probably be smart to take it off.
those puts didn't work out that good....
TASR cracked to what would have been green trade a day after expiration. Was up nearly 50% early on but expected more. 16s ended up worthless, 17s got 2/3 back on last day.
TWTR 100% hit
LNKD sold for 20% loss after it bounced nearly 1,000% from lows. Then way more than doubled from that next am. Could have been a 20+ bagger with good timing.
CSIQ 100% hit
CAVM didn't post on this board but was only put that worked out well for a double.
Bot some calls on the VXX just now when the market recovered a bit. My chart guy Stock timing.com says:
In the past, we always had plenty of warning time before a crash situation, but I don't think we will enjoy that same privilege now. The reason is the Fed's involvement that is dedicated to continue moving ahead at all costs. The only thing that will derail them is if something in the system breaks and the divergences are starting to get large enough for that to happen.
SPY crazy another higher high on daily today. Will need some help on those puts next couple days.
At least my $16 and $17 TASR sept puts working from yesterday. Got some sept 46 TWTR, 220 LNKD and small 36 CSIQ.
big market bounce last week and a half or so. Took some SPY puts a little early yesterday, added some today. gulp. hopefully a double top/lower high here and we get a pull. amazing strength so far though...
What I don't understand is how the TRIN has been over 1.00 for days while the market advances. Today 1.65.
Marty Chernard draws an expanding wedge back to 2000. Valuable service and reasonable price.
http://www.stocktiming.com/Monday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
I was out for the crash in 2007. I have some shorts now and a lot of cash for this one.
Will be watching closely how it handles the 200 DMA:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=djia&p=D&yr=0&mn=12&dy=0&id=p90029751166
Further to fall I feel.
I created this board so we could share short picks during the rough times. All short candidates are welcome. Whether its for intraday, swing trade or longer term hold. Please no OTC/PINK shorts, can't short them. With your pick please include the reasons why its a good short, entry, exit and stop points. Technical analysis is a must here and any big fundamental issues should also be pointed out.
Shorting can be EXTREMELY risky since you can lose much more than your original investment. Stops are a must with EVERY short trade!!!!!
DO NOT short/buy any stock mentioned on this board without doing your own DD first. Its your money!!!! Don't let somebody else lose it.
Good luck and as always happy trading!!! :)
UltraShort ETF funds for hedging in a BAD market:
Two China Hedge Plays:
(2)New funds with 3 times the leverage:
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