Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Investor2014]

Because I hate the cabal that for years have been stopping Anavex from performing to their own repeated expectations.

[WolfofMia]

Exposition #22561

Absolutely Pathetic!!!

Why so angry? LOL

[WolfofMia]

The WDGT group refuses to sell their all shares even after dilution and "questionable data"!

What do YOU make of that?

[sab63090]

Tom,

We are both on the same page!

[sab63090]

ATM's are normally used for cash poor companies....

This time it's being used by a cash rich company.....what's up with that prior to July 5th?

[WolfofMia]

And it was down because a large percentage of its constituents were down yesterday.

It was a RISK-OFF day, and nothing to do with AVXL in particular.

I can not believe I actually thought you used to bring valid points to this board.

22.5K post later, I finally admit there is more to this agenda from this birds eye point of view.

GL with your 95% chance of being wrong on AD!

[sab63090]

different view, but I did like your last sentence...

[sab63090]

The failure to surpass 12 yesterday gives me pause:

I thought the momentum was perfect for a further push higher regardless of the overall markets, but someone came in and pressed it to stop the advance....the pullback did at least stay as an "inside day" with the trading range contained within the previous day's range.

I did see a 5 wave advance with the 5th wave ending for Elliott Wave fans...a reasonable target upside remains at 13 for me after which I think a challenge to 13.50 would again take place...Leo has made some good observations and has admitted that he is not biased and rather neutral will the idea that he only trades from the long side with a trader's view.

Intermediate Trendline is still UP and would need to break below the 200 day sma which is around 10.20...

oh, btw, the "death cross" did not work for the bears...

[bas2020]

I'm expecting AD and RETT approvals this year. Absolutely amazing!

[bas2020]

Sell me all your shares.

[Investor2014]

Yun Zhong

Okay. Great. So the last question, I believe that the original plan is to initiate all those studies that you talked about by year-end last year. And I understand that the focus was on the Alzheimer's disease program. But are there any specific reason for the delay? Or -- also, are you able to provide any specific in terms of timing? When do you expect to initiate those studies?

Christopher Missling

Yeah. So we were very ambitious last year when we made those plans. And the attention to detail required really to finance and work on the specific protocol because it's easy to start any trial. It's more difficult to finish a trial successfully, and that's what we're aiming for. So I think we should appreciate that initiating a trial is not difficult, it's about making the trial successful and meaningful for when it's growing.

And so when you look at each trial, there's always things to consider and you learn to improve it as you go before you really start it. And we didn't want to rush it. So that's why we want to say -- we want to do this with the right timing. But obviously, we will catch up very nicely now with all these trials, which we plan to do. And they are still on track to be executed.

Seems to be the general trend with Missling's plans. Soon is anything from several months to years.

No answer at all to the question asked, except for:

But obviously, we will catch up very nicely now with all these trials, which we plan to do. And they are still on track to be executed.

Which just means Anavex soon and a good parallel to the Secret Rare Disease indication trial that has been hanging around for a couple of years along with expectations for the PDD study peer reviewed paper with the full "Proof of Concept" data, which will likely be the fait of the P2b/3 paper too.

Lots of planning, meaning procrastination, going on and little action. I guess it takes time to come up with the most cunning schemes for manipulating the stats for plausible deniability to show success.

Absolutely Pathetic!!!

[Gator328]

All speculative. Nobody has any idea who is interested in partnering, what discussions have taken place, or what the future holds. Right now, there's not even a drug that can be sold to patients.

I wish iHub would permanently block the guy who keeps saying Roche is guaranteed to buy the stock. The truth is nobody has any idea what will happen. We can speculate all we want but it's wait and see for now.

[Gator328]

I didn't realize the WGT crowd were to be taken seriously. The people shouting $1249 are probably just as wrong as the ones insisting the stock will become worthless. So I ask again, who cares what they think or what they were certain of?

I don't claim to know the first thing about investing, but I do know that investing based on the whims of an internet message board is a dumb strategy.

[Twice Worthy]

Several big pharmas are interested in partnering with Anavex on their drugs. No decision/s reached yet. Anavex is awaiting the publication in the medical journal as to prepare for both ... the partnering which will likely involve shared expense between the 2 companies ... and, setting the stage for the meeting with our FDA.

[Gator328]

Let LPC sell. It's short-term volatility. I can see how it may upset traders who mistimed their entry before the offering announcement, but long-term investors shouldn't care about how long LPC holds. Someone is buying those shares, what is their holding strategy?

It doesn't matter if the stock trades at $1 or $100. At some point in the not so distant future, the FDA will decide whether to approve Blarcamesine for Rett syndrome. If that happens, actual cash flow models will be created and speculative volatility will disappear, as will those who want to day trade the stock.

[Investor2014]

The WGT lot were absolutely certain Anavex would never again dilute given approval and revenue SOOOON is a sure thing!!!

Those guys keep lying to themselves just like Missing continuously succeeds in misleading them.

Sad, but LPC is fine imo.

[Gator328]

The market would have dropped the stock no matter who financed the deal. Anytime there is a possibility of dilution, some people will panic and sell their shares and it provides an opportunity for others to take short positions.

Dr. Missling made it clear that there is currently 4 years of cash runway available. He's planning for the future to ensure he always has access to cash. What's so bad about that? The deal itself seems favorable and on par with Cantor Fitzgerald's.

Let me ask the board this question: if a blue chip investment bank offered the same $150mm financing, but at worse terms than LPC, which would you prefer Dr. Missling choose? Money is money, and fortunately this money isn't even needed right now. But Dr. Missling is in a far better position to negotiate a deal now with $140mm cash in the bank than he would be when the cash starts to dry up. If anyone wants to know how toxic death spiral financing works, it usually begins with a company that is strapped for cash making disadvantageous, highly-dilutive deals with vulture firms out of necessity. I applaud Dr. Missling for not letting Anavex get to that point.

Maybe the naysayers are correct. The drug is a bust, the FDA is corrupt, whatever the case may be, it's important to always leave some room for doubt. And if one is so easily talked into all the reasons to walk away now, Anavex probably is too high-risk or that person has too much invested. As a purely speculative, high-risk/high-reward gamble, however, I don't know of too many opportunities that are better than what we're facing today.

Much of the risk has evaporated over the last few years. Those attacking the science are slowly changing their tune to attack Dr. Missling because he's an easier target -- at some point the FDA will decide whether the science is valid but CEO criticisms are subjective and can last forever.

What happens if we reach March 1 and nothing happens? Nothing happens. What's so special about March 1 and who cares if the wolves begin to howl? Anavex doesn't have any debt due on March 1, it's just another day.

[Investor2014]

Yeah that’s true but an index is still priced by the action of its constituents by some weighting and inclusion / exclusion rules.

[crescentmotor]

The XBI or any index follows the action of its constituents, not the other way round.

The "constituents" are the index funds and exchange traded funds that control 70% to 80% of trades using automated computer trading. Passive investing using algorithmic models took over the markets/exchanges long ago. Gone are the days when most trading originated from research done by humans. Machine trading is the reason for the extreme volatility of today's markets and that volatility has very little to do with changes in business fundamentals.

[Investor2014]

$AVXL is in the high risk tail of the XBI and will exhibit more volatility as the market moves and often in both directions.

[Investor2014]

The XBI or any index follows the action of its constituents, not the other way round.

[Steady_T]

Please keep us informed about your short positions and trades in real time. I'm interested in learning how that all works.

[kevindenver]

The money all spends the same and investment banking is a critical component of capitalism.

Are these complainers a bunch of commies, LOL? Or people with an agenda to spread negative narratives? I think we know the answer.

[ALP7]

You asked what the difference was between Cantor and LP. I clearly spelled it out but I'm not surprised that you refuse to acknowledge it. Why the need to waste 75,000 shares up front (effectively waste $750,000)? The LP deal is very good if there is an intention to utilize the stock sale. Otherwise, a 3% deal with Cantor would be better.

[ignatiusrielly35]

Meaningless distinction. You are reading too much into it. 75,000 shares as a fee is roughly $750k at the current share price. That is not a lot of money in the finance world. To conclude from this agreement that Missling anticipates “x, y or z” in terms of future capital needs is baseless conjecture.

[ALP7]

We know that the data release and peer review will happen SOON!

As for NDA filing, isn't Missling going to first meet with the FDA to see how to proceed? So an NDA filing might be a little bit later than SOON?

I wonder how Missling defines SOON. 2024? 2025? He wouldn't commit to 2H23.

[ALP7]

1. For the June 7, 2019 Purchase Agreement with Lincoln Park up to $50.0 million, LP received 324,383 shares as a fee for its commitment to purchase shares of our common stock. Also a fee of up to 162,191 shares if Lincoln Park purchased, at AVXL discretion, the $50.0 million aggregate commitment.

2. On May 1, 2020, AVXL entered into an Amended and Restated Sales Agreement (the “Sales Agreement”) with Cantor Fitzgerald & Co. The Sales Agents will act as agents on a commercially reasonable efforts basis. AVXL will pay the Sales Agents’ commissions for their services of 3.0% of the gross proceeds.

3. For the latest agreement with LP, it appears AVXL gave them 75,000 shares up front with the ability to earn 75,000 more shares if the entire $150 M is placed.

If you're not sure you'll need the money, then paying 3% of stock sales seems to be the better deal. If you're sure that you'll release at least half the shares, then the LP deal looks better. Guess Missling thinks that he'll need a lot more money in the next 2 years than he already has.

[crescentmotor]

Once there is an approved drug those instys will be knocking on the door.

I believe that will happen earlier. Once the complete data is available with peer review, along with NDA (or equivalent) filings, the institutional buyers will rush through the door.

[jav0033]

Great Science, Terrible Management.
ATM will be on soon and he will ask for More options. Tired of this imbecile.

[jav0033]

No accountability on Missling’s behalf.
He should’ve been long gone long time ago.

[peeved]

Well

Seeing that that area appears to be where everyone wants to sell i doubt we get there.

I don’t even see any imminent news that would get us there

And not only that….the news may not be real news with missling endpoints

[Hoskuld]

AVXL often/usually moves 2x the xbi - you aren’t new here and presumably know this already.

[Kb1123]

I share your sentiment. After years of holding on to my shares I long for the day when we see $15+ again so I can sell the majority and hold onto a few thousand shares to see what happens. Too many red flags and procrastination.

[ignatiusrielly35]

How exactly is an ATM (at the market) financing agreement with LPC more expensive than an ATM with Cantor? Assuming AVXL ever actually uses it in the first place.

[123tom]

On the chart... we have the resistance zone 12-13 area. and it looks like traders sold the first resistance target around 12 (11.90+) and the sell off dropped a dollar basically. 11.80 to 10.80 and now we have to see what happens next. I have trading shares to close if it hits 12.25/12.50/12.75 and 13.00/13.25. Big jump yesterday gets erased today. what else is new.
Support area 10.50-11.00 needs to hold for the next rally leg to demonstrate any bullish momentum . In my view.

[BIOChecker4]

Money from vulture investors like LPC is expensive money and hurts shareholders. Look it up. In addition, money from LPC means Missling can do whatever wants without those pesky and demanding institutional investors holding his feet to the fire for results. At shareholders’ expense, Missling has become a millionaire who is accountable to no one. I guess that’s his genius to which I gotta give him some credit.

[BIOChecker4]

When a CEO is a poor communicator, the stock generally trades at a discount to fair value. Conversely, a company whose CEO communicates well generally trades at a premium. When Missling puts discounted stock to LPC, shareholders get diluted more than they otherwise would. That excess dilution hurts shareholders by diluting their position more than it otherwise would be. So for shareholders, it actually does matter if the CEO communicates well, and shareholders should care deeply.

[Steady_T]

So what? Missling has managed the company's finances just fine without those institutional investors.

Once there is an approved drug those instys will be knocking on the door. My take is that Anavex is still viewed by those instys as a high risk, untried approach to treating CNS diseases. As such they don't want the risk. Once the risk is reduced to a level they find acceptable they will buy into Anavex.

The MOA still has to be validated by an approval. Once that happens a whole lot of folks will take Anavex seriously. Till then it is just another high risk developmental biotech with an extremely novel approach addressing diseases that have proven to be intractable so far.

I think you are putting the cart before the horse.

[ExtremelyBullishZig]

The market absolutely said it cannot stand the decisions of Anavex management.

Learn how to compare percentages...after being up today, not only did it drop...it dropped twice as mIch as the XBI. The XBI is an index...thebstocks drive it...not the other way around.

[ExtremelyBullishZig]

Lol...welcome. Now you see what all my posts are about...

[ExtremelyBullishZig]

Apparently not.

[LarryMexico28]

Neil Rebowe + the underwhelming cast of characters on linkedin plus mayomobile plus 8 years of grift do suggest a grift....just enough attention (MJfox + ern heaven) to bring in retail in the shadow of unrelenting shadiness


AVXL is the cabal which is its only chance at appreciation imo

[mike_dotcom]

So, every doctor who has worked with the drug and seen positive results in patients has been grifted? That's the thing that keeps me in the stock. Good luck with that short position. You definitely have a lot of company. And misery loves company.

[Hoskuld]

There was no rough water IMO - the stock price is disconnected from value and progress on most days. A day will come soon, however…and we will enjoy that day!

[Hoskuld]

The market said nothing about AVXL today - it just followed the XBI as is often the case.

[Anshu2]

Not sure of the confusion.

I’m happy with $15 over the next few months. What’s the contradiction with that?

Buyout is a long shot — and yes, if it happens, it would only be 2-3x of the then-stable price.

[peeved]

Lol

Delusional? A month ago you said our buyout would be 12-14 dollars…nowyou expect us to trade 15 without buyout…

I go by the chart every time

You tell me which of us is delusional

[Anshu2]

Only the most delusional are expecting it to go over $20 in less than 6 months. I’m only dreaming of $15-16 in a few months!

[peeved]

Todays action was horrible

Its not the xbi or the market…from a technical standpoint we cannot break out with large volume, despite the “huuuge” short position. The chart matters and taking 3 weeks to break resistance and then fizzling is not a good sign. It means NO BIG MONEY WANTS THIS STOCK. [with missling as ceo can you blame them?]

If this is going to 1294 what big fund wouldn’t be buying hand over fist? With the short shares it would easily rocket.

All the other cabal believers and missling worshipers don’t change the technicals

Only hope is gap up and run…at least that could be construed as a fake out

[nidan7500]

OK, let's not let some rough water screw up all the good-great work done by the AVXL operations/Mgmt. team. Very rough SP day today after a strong effort to get here , We have been through worse than this.

CARRY ON.