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A true tour de force, upshegrows.
I have only a vague memory of an auditing class taught by a longtime practicing auditor. It is a most unpleasant, lonely job with more pitfalls than a volcanic field of mudpots. But the auditor was only conditioned to look for embezzlement, theft, and misuse of corporate funds in whatever form. A raid on the treasury through options is probably more pervasive but I have never had the subtlety you found displayed so nakedly.
Thank you for the lesson.
The grimmest message could be that the management has abandoned hope of dealing with the mess. I have had stock in more than one struggling company where the founder or CEO's checkbook kept the company alive. When the checkbook was closed, the end was rapid.
Will be watching.
Best, Terry
Thirdly
You can spout as much as you want about what is or was said. From the very onset, you have attacked me personally, attacked my intelligence, name called (to be honest, you sounded like an immature high schooler), and have questioned anything and everything I has said or provided.
Now you can spout as much as you like about dilution, that doesnt mean it is a bad investment necessarily. A good investment is one that you buy low, sell high. So, if I buy Alterrus at 0.04 cents a share, and sell them at $1 a share, no matter if there was a dilution, it is a good investment (depending on time obviously). Obviously if I wait 50 years for that growth, well then it isnt a good investment. But if in 5 - 10 years, the stock jumps to $1 to $5 a share, from 0.04, well then, in many eyes, that is a good investment.
And what I was saying all along was that, if their business model can show a profit, and I believe they can in Vancouver, and can considerably increase that profit with more units in more cities, then even with the dilution, I think that their stock at 0.04 or 0.05 or even at 0.09 cents a share is oversold, and well under valued, even with the dilution. It is a stock that has high risk, but high reward. And as I said before, I think it is overly cheap, as I said before. With only $1.5 million in profit, they would have $0.01 a share, with the dilution, meaning it would have a PE of 100 at $1, or a PE of 50 @ $0.50 (that's a 10 fold increase).
And with the numbers I crunched, and the amount of customer base that they have, and the fact that they see demand for 4 - 5 systems in Vancouver alone, I think $1.5 million profit would easily be achieved, even with loans of 500K per unit. Again, I never said that they had amazing revenues, just that they doubled revenue, and I believe they will or would have (if not for the tray breakage), continued to grow revenue.
This argument is a vicious circle. We disagree, and I am not some paid author from a investor blogging site working for Alterrus, or any company for that matter. Just trying to give insight to the potential of a company.
And on a final note, WHY WOULD YOU BUY STOCK IN A COMPANY THAT HAS MADE SUCH HORRIBLE DECISIONS DILUTING THEIR SHARES? Seriously, if you do not believe they can achieve profitability atleast in the short term, why would you have even bought shares. Why not wait until you think they could start being profitable, and let them dilute the shares down? I mean you arent even following your own advice! Who is the bad investor?
Here is some insight. Probably something not many have thought through...
November 1, 2010:
Share Count is currently 57,389,550
December 14, 2010:
Press release announcing the Institute B relationship and Christopher Ng is coming from Lululemon
March 31, 2011:
Through signing bonuses, Stephen Fane holds 4,323,598 shares and Christopher Ng owns 4,323,597 shares. These numbers include 1,000,000 options each, granted upon signing with the company. The terms of the options were not disclosed at that time.
September 28,2011:
The share count has risen up to 84,254,834 through a combination of private placements and other issuances to settle claims/debt. It’s disclosed at this time that Christopher Ng invested $100,000 of his own money in a private placement giving him an additional 666,667 shares and 333,334 warrants. The shares were purchased at $.15/share and the warrants were 2 years at $.25/share. At this time Stephen Fane continues to own 4,323,598 shares including his options. Christopher Ng now owns 5,323,598 shares including his options.
July 30, 2012:
It’s disclosed in the March 31, 2012 AIF that the share count is now 95,816,003. Stephen Fane has increased ownership to 7,750,000 shares and Christopher Ng has increased ownership to 7,250,001 shares.
March 31,2013:
The share count has again increased slightly and no changes occurred in ownership for Stephen and Christopher. However it’s revealed that their signing bonus options have a price $.15/share and are 5 years in duration. Very generous terms.
November 8,2013:
It’s announced from the company with a positive spin that creditors of the company have agreed to convert their debt to equity. Christopher reiterates that this is a strong indication of the creditors belief in the future value of the equity.
The company now has 144,827,871 shares outstanding after the conversion. The conversion was done at $.07/share. The dilution from Day 1 is massive. 152% to be exact. Upon further inspection it’s revealed that 80% of the debt that was converted to shares was done by insiders and related parties. (Stephen, Christopher, Ray, Clay, Institute B). For these parties involved, this has been an absolute windfall. For instance, after conversion of debt to equity Stephen Fane now owns 19,047,143 shares including his options. Christopher Ng now owns 19,501,601 shares including his options.
You see, by allowing their salaries to accrue on the balance sheet as liabilities, they were able to dupe their #1 supporter - Barunuuk. They hid a fairly large salary expense from the income statement and in addition to that they also gained the ability to time the eventual conversion of their own accrued debt to equity. By choosing to convert the lump sum now while the stock prices is so low,(they have done so at $.07/share)they have allowed themselves a significant increase in shares owned.
If you believe in the long term prospects of Alterrus and you are shareholder like Barunuuk - you should be pissed. Why? Because in lieu of salary today they have taken a huge piece of the companies future earning power away, instead.
The timing of the debt conversion stinks.
Here is an example to wrap your head around it:
Day 1:
Share Count = 57,389,550
Barunuuk invests $20K and buys 100,000 shares representing .175% of the company
Stephen owns 4,323,598 shares/options representing 7.53% of the company
Christopher owns 4,323,598 shares/options representing 7.53% of the company
Today:
Share Count = 144,827,871
Barunuuk raves about sales growth and discusses all things positive with what Alterrus is doing. He/She still owns his/her 100,000 shares now representing .07% of the company. You been completed diluted. You have effecctively lost 60% of the stake you once did.
Stephen on the other hand now owns 19,047,143 shares/options representing 13.15% of the company
Christopher now owns 13.46% of the company.
In laymen’s terms. Stephen and Christopher have increased their own ownership from 7.53% to north of 13% at the expense of all other shareholders in the company who have been significantly diluted. It’s true that Stephen and Christopher are due fair compensation for their work but I disagree strongly with the timing (and price)of when this debt was converted. And furthermore, the comments about creditors having strong convictions about the future earnings potential is somewhat tainted when your provided the insight that 80% of the creditors were actually the management team, themselves.
FWIW, upshegrows.
I bought a penny stock - as in one cent - today that has gone silent for over 2 years because it dares not say anything since it discontinued reporting. Has no money for accounting and sales have been zero.
I bought because of unverified and unverifiable "rumors" that very good things are happening.
Considering the situation I will not name the stock.
Maybe, just maybe, there are some rumormongers around to give us hope here.
Thanks for heads up.
Best, Terry
I suspected as much Terry as the US pink sheet OTC (ASIUF) exchange didn't impose a trading halt, just the CNSX (ASI). That points one to expect the news was exchange specific and fee related. It's not a large expense. Perhaps just an ovesight or with the machine breaking down and no cash in the bank, pennies arae being pinched?
Thanks for the link to confirm it.
Trading Halt:
Alterrus Systems halted at 6:43 a.m. PT
2014-01-15 09:45 ET - Halt Trading
Alterrus Systems Inc. has been halted at 6:43 a.m. PT on Jan. 15, 2014.
Online blog by CEO of another "needy" development-stage company:
USG: Then jump ship if its so bad. Each of your posts highlights how "bad" their financial situation is, and that they wont see a profit (or at least you do not give a timeline if you do believe they will see a profit). Or you think they need to start selling units and will make a boat load on those, even though they completely aligned their business plan away from that.
Alterrus (Valcent at the time) had a bad financial (if not non-existent) situation prior to even developing the rooftop. If anything, the fact that they showed ~$200K a quarter revenue (and probably somewhere between $250K - $400K a quarter since then with increased products and customer base), has positioned themselves in a much better financial situation then before or ever. With VanCity financially vested (and one reason why they have allowed them delay and push their interest only payments throughout 2013), it is in their interest that Alterrus succeeds as well. The fact that they have shown revenue potential, is very much in their favor, and if Chris Ng can find funding with a company that had negative equity at the onset, I am sure this bump in the road will be solved.
Again, they are selling microgreens and basil, so it's not like they have nothing coming in and going out. I just dont understand the "Alterrus is in a bad financial predicament!" They were never in a good financial predicament. This is a penny stock that until 2013, never made revenue. So why would they ever be in a good financial setting. I mean come on! Its deciding if they actually have the potential to achieve a profitable business case. From the numbers I have crunched, I believe they can, it just may take some time to get there. If you think of it, they have made monumental strides for a company that did nothing but have a Time Magazine Innovation Award, back in 2009. So if you are so down on Alterrus, USG, why not sell your shares, and stop reiterating that they have bad financials. Because, of course they do, they only just started producing and making a product.
the current reality is factually and materially different from your rose coloured glasses scenario:
their current direct product costs and labour costs sum to a number that exceeds their current level of sales. Yes, sales can expand and cover this but there are other quarterly expenses that are yet to be accounted for;
a)project development ..............................$125K
b)G&A ..............................................$90K
c)Executive salary as it's being accrued ...........$128K
d)Interest on debt................................. $112K
other concerns;
a)only have $36K in cash in the bank
b)accounts payables of $2M vs. receivables of $45k
c)$5.3M in negative shareholder equity
(* These are prior to recent debt conversions, however the majority of the debt conversion was actually accrued salary commitments being converted to equity. It created greater that 50% dilution to shareholders)
d) they are already in breach of the covenants on the loan given to them through their first banking relationship.
e) there are currently $380K in legal claims against the company.
f) they don't own any visible unencumbered assets.
This isn't subjective thinking. It's a statement of facts taken directly from their presentations. They have an ugly balance sheet, limited financial flexibility at the moment to fix their machine let alone expand and the one bank that has provided past funding holds them in default for breaking their covenants just months after providing the loan.
It's not good at the moment. Plain and simple.
Breakdown/Maintenance
As much as the tray "breakdown" is not positive news, one must take everything with a grain of salt. Previous CSNX updates also had non-optimistic views of achieving funding to continue to operate (this back in April). Alterrus management has written updates that are far from optimistic, to guard (in my opinion) against stock holder lawsuits (which happen all the time due to companies providing too optimistic outlooks).
It looks like they are still producing microgreens and basil, just not the lettuce packages. Of course this isnt good news, and there are always growing pains, particularly in new processes, but once or if back up to full operation, this doesnt mean that they can not be back on track. Not trying to be the eternal optimist, but also not ready t o jump ship due to some hiccups. Again, they have been operating a year, but in that year have increased their customer base 3 to 4 fold, increased products 3 - 4 fold, and havent even operating a full year at full potential, so they still have a ways to go.
The breakdown of the VertiCrop system in Vancouver sounds serious enough to cause major concern, particularly the comment in the CNSX Monthly Progress Report "It is not clear as of todays date how this situation will affect the Company on a go foward basis". As usual however, Management is keeping the information it releases to its shareholders to a minimum, so it may be some time before we find out exactly what is going on. There were some significant changes made in the size and design of the plant trays for the Vancouver plant compared to the Paignton prototype, and one wonders if this has resulted in some structual failures due to the extra weight of the larger trays. In any case, with the Company's debt load, the court actions pending (plus legal costs) and now these problems, some of the recent submissions to this journal concerning spectacular projections for growth must look a tad optimistic.
Thanks for doing that legwork, B.
It is Epcot Center
The system is not yet completed at the Epcot Center, but I called there and it actually is the Epcot Center that this system is being installed. Though it never stated this anywhere, it was pretty much assumed as much. Just thought I would confirm it.
Malfunction Affected Salad production
From their FB site, it looks like salad productions were affected, but Basil and Microgreens are still available. Hopefully the get taht back up and running properly.
Also it looks like Alterrus is in the process of specific certifications (HACCP)that Whole Foods requires, so it looks like they are hoping to add them to their customer base as well.
Ouch. Not a good turn of events: http://cnsx.ca/cmsAssets/docs/Filings/2014/2014_01_10_12_53_18_ASI_December_2013_Monthly_Progress_Report.pdf
"On December 26th, 2013 the Company experienced a serious malfunction with the
VertiCrop conveyor system. This malfunction has dramatically impacted production
levels and general operations. The conveyor rehabilitation could take a significant
period of time. The impact of this has not been fully determined."
Barunuuk, are you in any capacity affiliated to Alterrus/Institute B?
As I'm asking you this question, it is only fair that I answer it too. For me, the answer is no. I have no affiliation. Just an investor.
Morning, Barunuuk.
Are you speaking with authority on behalf of Institute B?
You are a waltzing conundrum.
USG wrote back on August 20th/2013: Post #622:
Producing medical marijuana would not jeopardize their B Corp status. If it is a legal venture, then it wouldn't go against it. Actually, Institute B might even be up for it with the added publicity it would bring. So of all the reasons against Alterrus jumping in, this is a pretty weak reason.
Profit
As we have seen from USG's comments and the Alterrus Quarterly's, ASIUF is not making a profit. We know this. However, they have been operating for a year now, and have yet to reach their full consumer and production potential. From the spring to summer, sales doubled. Since then they have tripled their customer base, increased product lines (with more products), and continue to improve their production process. To use their $210K last quarterly sales as the sale going forward to show they arent profitable is irresponsible. It is going to take them time to increase sales. Yes there are other general admin costs (Ng and Fane's salary included). But as I mentioned before, if they can show more revenue than COGS, then will be able to achieve more capital and more funding for more installations.
Ask USG this, if he/she doesnt believe Alterrus will be profitable any time soon (and what is that 10 years?), then why buy their stock. Also, they dont necessarily have to be profitable for the stock to jump. If they can show that they can generate revenue greater than COGS, they could attract a lot more outside investors attentions.
AGAIN, LET ME CAPS LOCK THIS. ALTERRUS SALES?REVENUE HAS NOT PEAKED YET. SO HOW CAN YOU SAY THAT THEY CAN NOT BE PROFITABLE IF YOU DO NOT KNOW THEIR PEAK REVENUE POTENTIAL. If they doubled revenue for the next 3 quarters, they would be making $1.6 Million a quarter (Now I am not saying that is going to happen, just that we have already seen sales double in one quarter, and it all depends on how fast sales grow, and how much).
One thing that hasnt grown quarter over quarter is cost of sales; $323K last quarter, and ~$316K the quarter before that. So it looks like that number is a good cost to use. If sales doubles another quarter, it would exceed cost of sales. AGAIN, I AM NOT SAYING ALTERRUS IS GOING TO BE PROFITABLE BY THE NEXT QUATERLY! Just saying they are moving closer and closer to it. I expect sales to have grown even more on their next quarterly statement.
On marijuana to upshegrows, et al.
Marinol is an FDA approved synthetic marijuana in pill form that has been around for decades - but you can't buy it. It was a market failure despite superb medical uses mostly because of an extreme high that even potheads found objectionable.
INSY, the most successful new IPO to date, is taking a crack [no pun] at reintroducing it in liquid form instead of Marinol's pill, with somewhat dubious prospects IMHO.
http://www.insysrx.com/products/dronabinol/
Fellow in California who was licensed by the state after voters approved medical marijuana sunk a small fortune into producing and selling marijuana for medical use only with a doctor's prescription got a 20-year mandatory sentence after he was convicted of being a drug dealer. Jurors were angry that the court would not allow them to know those details.
The whole matter smells of a legal opium parlor in Bangkok that I visited long ago, and they do really smell. The parlors were legal but the cops made their money off opium runners who were not legal.
Legalization of marijuana, besides allowing treatment of cancer patients with nausea and extreme loss of appetite, preventing some blindness, reducing or eliminating tremors of various diseases and hypothetically treating brain cancer, would be a mortal blow to many drug gangs and reduce the income of politicians and many money-laundering banks.
Seems like a good idea to me but I would sell Alterrus as soon as I was able if they decided to do good with the Weed for obvious reasons.
BTW I have never smoked a joint or puffed on an opium pipe but there are those who refuse to believe it.
I hear it's a lot of fun.
Best, Terry
Alterrus is joined at the hip to Institute B. They are already a certified B Corp but I doubt that would be the case as a pot grower. That's more up Nick Brusatore's lane.
_____
B Corps are certified through a rigorous screening process administered through B-Labs, an independent non-profit organization. To qualify as a B Corp, a firm must have an explicit social or environmental mission, and a fiduciary responsibility to take into account the interests of workers, the community and the environment as well as its shareholders. It must also publish independently verified reports on its social and environmental impact alongside its financial results.
A Fundamental View.
Here is what is not being discussed with all the pro forma fluff floating around:
I'll use the current quarterly for reference:
Sales were $209K
COGS were $323K
Ouch.
Gross Profit is an oxymoron at the moment. They had a gross loss of $114K for this quarter. Upon closer inspection we see the $323K in COGS is comprised of the following items:
Direct Product Cost = $138K
Direct Labour Cost = $127K
Depreciation $48K
Selling/Marketing = $2K
Other = $7K
The Depreciation is related to the Building, Tray's and Rigging and the verticrop system itself. While depreciation itself is a non-cash charge, it is certainly a real expense. All depreciation does is spread a real cost over the useful life of the asset. Trays will need to be replaced, equipment serviced etc ... So, while it doesn't effect cash flow in the reporting period it certainly must be accounted for in any analysis.
But stop for second and simply look at the sum of the Direct Product Costs and Direct Labour which sum to $265K. This sum exceeds the unit sales figures for the quarter all by itself. The Direct Labour appears to be too costly. This is a hint that something went wrong during the quarter. Higher than expected costs or lower than expected Sales. It's possible that expected orders didn't pan out. You can't make money taking inputs worth a $1 and selling outputs to the public for $.90.
This margin should be closer to +50%. Why? because you still have to pay for G&A, R&D, expansion, and interest on debt. So let's have a closer look at those additional expenses which we've yet to address.
Product Development cost are comprised of Site contractor Fees and Consulting Fees. They were relatively stable Q over Q. They are currently costing the company $125K per quarter. If the company is to expand, contractor fees etc will expand with that. I would guess these are related more to Epcot at the moment.
General and Administrative expenses were roughly $90K. See anything wrong with that? (see below for the answer) This category includes rent, travel, office, consulting etc . As the company grows these expenses are not going to shrink.
Next is interest on debt and royalties paid. This totalled $113K for the quarter. Some good news here will be the positive effect of the debt conversion to equity. This will lower their interest costs as debt was eliminated. However, you should understand how this all came about.
$3.4M was recently converted to equity. A logical question would be who in their right mind would give up a debt claim for a stock certificate offered by a company that had negative equity? The debt is a more senior claim.
Lo and behold upon inspection you'll find that of the $3.4M which converted, all but approximately $500K was done by related parties and Institute B. In other words, the friendly hands and the executives.
So, to sum up:
At the moment the companies sales must increase dramatically without incurring any additional expenses to have a shot of making money.
Good: Sales ................................. $209K
Bad: COGS .................................. $323K
Product development ................... $125K
G&A ................................... $90K
Interest .............................. $113K * will decrease next q due to conversion
All else being equal, sales would have needed to be greater than 3X what they are in order to create a positive bottom line without a penny of increase in additional expenses.
Finally, one last thing that Barunuuk clearly doesn't understand.
The expenses listed above are actually drastically understated. Why? Because Stephan Fane and Chris Ng are currently accruing a salary rather than actually being paid in cash. I applaud them both because I believe that past accruals are what they both just converted to equity and therefore they are eating their own cooking to some extent. However, it has cost the rest of the shareholder base significant dilution!
In 2012 Stephan's accrued salary was $336K. Chris Ng's was $176K for a combined total of $512K annually. That represents another $128K per quarter if the salary was actually being paid and not accrued. When they finally do take regular pay it will become part the G&A line item.
If executive salaries were actually being paid and included on the income statement, then the total sales hurdle per quarter would become roughly $780k before the shareholders got to spilt even one penny.
This is the reality of where Alterrus is currently at.
Pro forma blue sky projections are meaningless and this is why;
1) I get my back up when the board is sprayed with a bunch of pro forma garbage.
2) anyone hanging their hat on bottomline earnings at this stage of the game is delusional.
They are climbing Mt. Everest in barefeet at the moment.
USG: Why buy ASIUF stock?
If you believe that it is delusional to think ASIUF can ever be profitable (and you state years; is that 2 years, 10 years, 17 years?), why buy the stock? Don't you buy stock thinking (predicting even?) that it will go up in value? The only way ASIUF's share price goes up is with profitability.
As I said before, I believe profitability will be achieved in a couple years. I also think that they need to continue to expand with more units to get there as well. However, if they can show that one unit is profitable in terms of COGS, and not the general, administrative costs that would be shared by all units (as I stated before), they will have a strong business case for more loans, to develop more units. And may even get some outside investment firm's attentions.
And yes, no wants > 50% dilution, but it is necessary, and I think still allows for much room for the share price to grow. Many biotech stocks need to dilute during Phase 3 trials (if they do not have the capital or Big Pharma), and those with successful products, still see their shares jump, even after dilutions. Again, every case is different, and I still believe that ASIUF low share price of 0.05 is overly low, even for a volume of 150 Million Outstanding shares. I think the reward well outweighs the risk.
The Feds havent legalized it, however, they also have allowed these states to regulate this area on their own.
"But in August, the U.S. Justice Department said it won't challenge Colorado or other states with laws legalizing recreational marijuana. Instead, federal officials will focus on serious trafficking and keeping the drug away from children."
Colorado is expecting tax revenue of ~$70 Million, half of which will go to building schools and education. New York just moved to legalize medical use. The realty of this, is that this is a momentum shifter. Once more states realize the tax revenue potential of this, the increased business, and the little if any negative outcome from this (it is well documented that legalized alcohol causes well more problems than MJ), more states will move to this legalization.
Alterrus could easily enter this area, and would be poised as an expert grower. They would need to be careful as I think they do not want to harm their brand, so they would need to split this off as a side entity, away from Local Garden.
It definitely is an opportunity for them, as they could wait until more states legalize, and they would have an edge in entering these markets with their higher yields.
Howdy, Terry!
Regardless of the federal position on pot, there is a window of opportunity to make A LOT of money very quickly, and Verticrop provides those willing to take the risk with a secure, controlled way to bring those crops to market.
Hi, CigsNWhiskey.
Well, they are headquartered 20 minutes from the land of legalized pot (and only an hour from Bellingham, which could easily -- and enthusiastically -- support such an operation).
LOL!, Coonman.
Alterrus-Nations largest producer of Hydro-cannabis. This is the future of Alterrus, and it's inevitable. The biggest player in the very soon to be 20 Billion dollar national Marijuana trade.They are allready set up for it. They have the infra-structure, the contacts, the reputation, the know-how. In one quarter they could be pulling in 10 million a month. It's coming. $100.00 a share. Press release on the way.
Morning, upshegrows.
you said you were done last time.
Just sayin'
Predicting Rain
Okay, so here are some more predictions (some that have begun to realize and others not yet). And by predicting them, one can make alot of money (or lose).
Predicting that Netflix will become the full cable providerp; stock is already up from its low last year of $50 up above $300. Netflix has more customers than any cable provider (i.e. Comcast, Charter, etc....). Netflix produces its own shows. Just a matter of time before no more cable providers and all shows are video streamed.
Predicting that MSFT will be in similar position to BBRY; 4% share of smart phones, <5% of tablet market share. When Smart Phones (and Tablets as the stepping stone) become what we commonly call a PC, MSFT will no longer have a monopoly on oeprating, let alone strong market share. They are in a rush to develop new products and revenue streams; they even developed their own tablet to run their software, bought Nokia, etc...
I could go on, but here is the thing. By predicting rain, you build an ark. And what is investing without predicting? You are buying an investment, because you believe it will do well.
Done.
Comparing Growth on a Share Price
I dont want to argue anymore, but using Lululemon wasnt to compare Alterrus to them as they have completely different financials. I was showing how the growth of a company can effect a stock price.
If Alterrus shows a profit (again this is if), on just one or two units, then what I am saying is there is still alot of growth potential in the share price. That was all I was saying. Looks like you get lost alot and dont follow these comments. Anyways, I am done explaining to you. You dont agree, and that's fine.
Let me get this straight. You're pointing the finger directly at me (although as you claim you don't do that) and suggesting I don't use comparable analysis...
Fundamental research
Funny how all you want to do on this board is argue. I wouldnt say that my calculation was based on detailed, fundamental research, though some of my revenue calculations were based on information accumulated thru numerous Alterrus articles and research, in terms of their production capacities, and product sales, operating costs, etc... Obviously, the outcome of ASIUF stock skyrocketing is only in the case that they make a profit.
As I mentioned before, I believe that if they hit > $2 Million revenue per unit (sized similarly to the rooftop), profit is achievable. And with that, substantial share gains. Remember, Lululemon's IPO was in 2007 at $18.00 a share. Obviously my calculations of share price potential isnt an overnight event, and would take 5 - 10 years more than likely with continued expansion. So let's look at Lululemon between 2007 and 2013.
At IPO, profit was 0.05 at the second quarterly from IPO (the first one was $0.00). At $18/share, that was a PE ratio of 360 (at their peak share price, sometime last year, the PE would be 160/0.05 = 3200). So the growth over those 6 years was a maximum of ~9 times. And, they are still growing, opening stores in Asia, Europe and even more in North America with new stores, such as iVivva.
So to state that even if Alterrus is able to achieve $0.005/share profit, with an installation in major North American City, even with 150 Million shares, there is considerable growth potential in the stocks price. Again, not saying its going to happen, just saying the potential is there. High risk, high reward.
Interesting how USG never provides any comparable scenarios or analysis. It is evident USG's only purpose on this board is to refute any opinion or insight I may have. Listen, at this point it's obvious you disagree with all my opinions and insights, so no need to give any comments disputing my opinions unless you can provide evidence/facts, or critical thinking insight that would be worthy of a discussion.
Also, I think you have stated in 5 different posts that it was going to be your last one. Jus sayin'....
Gotcha, upshegrows, but spectacular gains are not all that unknown.
Do take care.
Terry
duplicate
For the Record:
Reading the posts this morning its clear that some have failed to interpret my words below properly. My tongue was firmly planted on the inside of my cheek in writing the following. It was a parody on the "fundamental research" that Barunuuk claims to use. I am not an accountant nor am I an MBA. That is Barunuuk according to his past posts. Incidentally Terry, I agree 100% that an MBA is not what it once was.
Again, the words below have no bearing on what I truly think this company is worth. It was written in jest.
Probably why Barunuuk agrees with it all....
I've never once discussed my level of education or background. You've got the wrong chest thumper.
Last post from me for a while so you're in luck.
USG
Local Garden (Alterrus) Favorite Company of 2013
Looks like Alterrus has gotten the attention of the Globe and Mail and was listed as one of the favorite small companies of 2013.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/small-business/sb-growth/day-to-day/photos-our-favourite-small-businesses-of-2013/article16088915/?utm_source=Shared+Article+Sent+to+User&utm_medium=E-mail%3A+Newsletters+%2F+E-Blasts+%2F+etc.&utm_campaign=Shared+Web+Article+Links
Interesting Assumptions
I would say your calculation is extremely conservative, barring that they actually build 315 units. I think there would be much more than 5 units per 63 regions. That would mean British Columbia, where Vancouver is located could only have 5 farms, which is exactly what they would have for just Vancouver. New York/New Jersey could sustain more than 10 farms overall. New York is 16 times larger than Vancouver, so they could sustain much more farms.
I would have estimated it by population, whereas Vancouver could sustain 1 unit for every 100 people. The population of the US is 300 Million, so 3000 units perhaps. And that would be a ceiling amount.
So $1 million in profit is ~ $0.01 a share. So 3000 times that is well, $30.00 a share. And with a share price of 0.05, that's a PE of 0.0016. Now I am not saying Alterrus well install 3000 units, but that would be a good ceiling amount. So let's take 1/4 of that, 750 units, with $0.01/share profit, that is a PE of 0.0064. At a share price of $100, that is 13.33. So yes well in the range of $45 - $100 a share. I agree that that is the potential. Wow, we finally agree on something.
AND THAT'S ONLY NORTH AMERICA.
PS, as you see at the end of my comments, I do not insert any personal attacks, rather just add to the discussion. But again, its baby steps. You are getting there. Atleast you aren't name calling.
I signed in today just to say this....
I have been reading posts here for some time now, many years, and have become VERY tired of Up She Grows posts. You DO attack personally. Go back and read your posts. For someone with the education you claim too have you at times sound like an arrogant adolescent at best.
Please stick to posting GOOD information and insights. The bickering between you two is irritating and provides very little to the rest of us. I'm sure both of you can be helpful and give good info to think about but I don't want to read through all the other crap in the post just to extract a small amount of relevant information.
I'm not accountant, how boring, nor am I an investment consultant. Just a production manager in the heavy steel fabrication industry of an 18 million dollar a year company where I've been employed for 27 years.
I'm not going to get into arguments with you two "know it alls" and I wish you two would stop. I just want info on the news / progression and growth of this very interesting company. That I own, what I consider, a decent amount of stock in. I have for many years. I love the direction this company is headed now and I hope it makes us ALL allot of money.
Differences of opinions are fine and mistakes can happen. That doesn't necessitate constant on-going bickering and name calling.
This is the last post you will see from me so attacks on this post will be laughed off and NOT replied to.
Good Day!
Morning, upshegrows.
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Alterrus Systems Inc. is an environmentally responsible, publicly trade company (CNSX:ASI & OTCQB: ASIUF) located in Vancouver, Canada. Alterrus has created a sustainanle vertical growing system, Verticrop, that grows fresh, nutritious leafy green vegetables in urban environments wher ethey are to be consumed. VertiCrop high density vertical growth system, technology that provides a solution to rapidly increasing food costs caused by transportation/fuel costs spiraling upwards with the cost of oil. Together with higher cost comes a reduction in availability and nutritional values in the food we consume. Using a fraction ofthe resources needed for traditional field agriculture, this patent pending technology generates substantially higher yields than conventional farming and was sleected by TIME MAGAZIN as one of the world's greatest inventions.
Developed over several years by Alterrus, the system is designed to grow vegetables and other foods much more efficiently and with greater food value than in agricultural field conditions. The VertiCrop system demonstrates the following characteristics:
Share Capital as of Dec 1, 2009
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Estimated Market Cap $1,052,526 as of Mar 30, 2010 |
March 23, 2010 | Valcent's AlphaCrop Prototype Is Operational | |
March 10, 2010 | Nike, U.S. State Department, Nasa and USAID-Sponsored Competition Picks Valcent as One of the Ten Best Companies in the World for a Sustainable Future | |
March 08, 2010 | Valcent's Smaller Vertical Growing System "Alphacrop"(TM) Received Strong Sales Approval From Its Master Distributor for the United Kingdom | |
January 26, 2010 | Robert Kennedy Jr. Presents Verticrop At Us Mayor's Conference | |
January 18, 2010 | Director Resignation | |
January 08, 2010 | Dubai Forum Presents VertiCrop Vertical Farming System | |
December 02, 2009 | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Will Join Valcent's Advisory Board | |
November 13, 2009 | Time Magazine Names Valcent's Vertical Farming Technology as one of the Top 50 Best Innovations of 2009 | |
October 27, 2009 | British Parliament Backs Valcent's Verticrop (tm) Systems | |
October 22, 2009 | Stephen Kennedy Smith Jr EMLINK LLC Engaged by Valcent to Launch Verticrop in U.S.A. |
RECENT FILINGS
http://quicktake.morningstar.com/stocknet/secdocuments.aspx?symbol=asiuf
CONTACT
Investor Relations:
Email: cng@alterrus.ca
Address: 120 Columbia Street
Vancouver, BC
Canada V6A 3Z8
Telephone: 604-720-4223
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