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Bullish crude according to the P&F chart:
Some of the talking heads have oil at $70-90 by EOY. IMO, $60 is more likely, with an occasional spike to $70. A $60 handle will make oily stocks in the Texas Permian, and Okie Stack plays fly.
The only thing that can really derail oil is if the OPEC members, and Russia "cheat" on the production cuts recently agreed to. Russia has a history of cheating on past agreements.
Short term, there is a glut in storage inventory which has to be drawn down. Currently US refiners are alternating between oil-gasoline builds/draws. Need to start seeing simultaneous oil and gasoline draws in the US inventory before oil prices get a boost from the low 50s.
Yet to be figured out is the role of US Shale producers in making the US a swing producer/supplier of oil. And its effect on oil prices.
On the side is Chinese demand. They have been building up their strategic reserves on the cheap, with the 2 yr flood of cheap OPEC oil.
It's going to be a green yr in the oil patch.
How Government Regulation Makes Us Poorer
by Tyler Durden Dec 28, 2016 5:15 PM
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-28/how-government-regulation-makes-us-poorer
So the issue of exploitation, and especially how to get rid of it, is a matter of finding the real and ultimate cause of the situation. It’s usually not a matter of employers having “power” over the worker. Such power does not occur naturally, but is caused by something, and my argument suggests that the employers’ economic power is a symptom, but not the cause. The real cause is government regulation.
Merry Christmas!!!
Anutter year. Time for the Bear's crystal ball 2017 predictions...
Gold prices will remain down. A potential low of 1050 Q1-Q2. The problem for the gold bugs is and will continue to be, the USD strength. Although it has run like hell, it still has running room. Pushed along by a US GDP blip upward due to infrastructure, and defense spending. The spending making the US economy appear stronger, with inflation starting to grow after Q2. The Fed will hike rates in response to inflation starting due to the economy heating up. Also helping to prop up the USD.
At some point late in 2017, the infrastructure spending effect will ebb back down. The Fed won't be able to hike anymore, without throwing the economy into a recession. The market will suddenly notice a mega annual budget deficit. The USD gives way, and Gold starts to recover. Track the EUR/USD Forex trade. Overall the gold bugs will have to wait till 2018 for butter times.
Meanwhile I'll be swimming in the oil patch. Where PoO has temporarily detached itself from the USD. If lucky the oil patch will be the focus for a forthcoming commodities bubble. Safe in 2017. Potential to pop in 2018-2019. How fast the bubble comes up, and when it pops, depending on what the gators in Washington do to Dodd-Frank, and how soon. Late 2018 might make it prudent to mutate into a gold bug. Exact timing remains in a haze. In the meantime 2017 is party time in the oil patch! Bon appetite.
Megatrends 2020: What They Mean For Gold - Peter Diekmeyer
December 13, 2016
https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/megatrends-2020-what-they-mean-for-gold-peter-diekmeyer.html
Deutsche Bank Provides "Smoking Gun" Proof Of Massive Rigging And Fraud In The Silver Market
by Tyler Durden Dec 8, 2016 3:03 PM
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-08/deutsche-bank-provides-smoking-gun-proof-massive-rigging-and-fraud-silver-market
IT’S OVER. Jim Sinclair (markets completely explained, LISTEN)
Posted on December 4, 2016 by The Doc
http://www.silverdoctors.com/gold/gold-news/its-over-we-killed-capitalism-jim-sinclair/
Miners Continue to Diverge from Crashing Gold
Friday December 02, 2016 15:12
http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2016-12-02/Miners-Continue-to-Diverge-from-Crashing-Gold.html
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally-too early
In the near term gold will continue to go down. Unless one believes holiday jewelry buying is going to "trump" the Fed. It's going to take 2-3 yrs for the next golden era.
In the forthcoming Xmas spirit of giving, the Bear crystal ball sees:
A profitable commodities bubble starting as soon as Dodd-Frank is repealed. Oil & base metal derivatives coming out of the kazoo.
The USD to remain strong near term, with Fed rate hikes supporting it. Gold to remain weak near term.
As the commodities bubble is approaching burst size, the USD finally starts to crash. Accelerating the bubble blowing up even more. Gold starts a slow recover.
The commodities bubble bursts. The US economy goes into recession, along with inflation. It will make the late 1970s look like good times. USD crashes, and Gold runs strong. We can all bee gold bugs then.
But a lot of things have to happen, and it's not going to happen in just a few months. Again, 2-3 yrs out. In the meantime, there's a bubble to be played.
Gold Market Update Clive Maund November 20, 2016
http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/gold-market-update-193
Lots of charts and commentary at the link above... PL
Precious Metals Stocks May Be Poised for a Major Upswing
Source: Clive Maund for The Gold Report (10/31/16)
https://www.streetwisereports.com/pub/na/17161
Technical analyst Clive Maund outlines why he believes the correction in gold and precious metals stocks is coming to an end.
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally
Adam Hamilton October 28, 2016
http://www.zealllc.com/2016/gswtrral.htm
The bottom line is gold stocks are just entering their seasonally-strongest period of the year. Their big winter rally is fueled by gold’s own, which is driven first by outsized demand from holiday jewelry buying and later new-year investment buying. So both the metal and its miners’ stocks have strong tendencies to rally between late October and late February in bull-market years. It’s the best calendar span to own gold stocks.
And this year’s coming winter rally looks exceptionally bullish because the seasonal tailwinds won’t be overpowered by bearish sentiment, technicals, or fundamentals. All of these primary drivers are bullish today and closely aligned with the strong seasonals, making for a powerful united force to propel gold stocks dramatically higher. Speculators and investors alike should be fully deployed for the coming months.
Something's terribly wrong with metals trading...
... HFT spoofing and Comex selling 58% of all available metal??? WTH???
See the imbedded links above...
Well, well... what bottom? LOL
So Stagflation is upon us? Currently 10 yr UST bills have a yield of 1.5%. This implies a market expectation of 1.5% inflation per year over the next 10 years.
What has caused the largest rise in gold prices: Actions of the central banks, or Fund investments in gold ETFs? Tick tick tick... time is up. It's a trick question. The answer is neither. The largest driver has been the demand for gold in China quadrupling. Why? Because the average Chinese buying gold jewelry (e.g. 24 karat 99% gold) still doesn't trust their system of government. Or using their money to invest in the Chinese stock market - can't blame em there. But as that trust increases, their demand for gold will drop. Why? Because they will be investing in higher return stocks, and bonds.
That's right, over the past 40 yrs US real estate returned an average of 12% per year compared with 11.4% for stocks, 7.5% for bonds and 5.4% for gold. Only in the bear markets of 2000-2002 and 2008-2009 did gold outperform US stocks. This blue print will eventually occur in the emerging Chinese market.
So unless stagflation occurs (instead of the current deflation pressures), and one believes the Chinese will never invest in their own market or diversify their investments in the future, then the bottom for gold is not in. Do I hear a bid at 1000? 900?
Well, well, well... on Friday, these gentlemen, Eric Sprott and Franklin Sanders, called the bottom in the PM's.
What The Next Gold Confiscation Will Look Like (And How To Protect Yourself)
by Tyler Durden Aug 11, 2016 6:30 PM
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-11/what-next-gold-confiscation-will-look-and-how-protect-yourself
Submitted by Nick Giambruno via http://www.InternationalMan.com,
On April 5, 1933, under the pretext of a national emergency, President Franklin D. Roosevelt issued Executive Order 6102, making it illegal for U.S. citizens to own gold.
The decree forced Americans to sell their gold at an artificially low “official price.” If they refused, the government could hit them with stiff penalties: a $10,000 fine (equivalent to $180,000 today) and/or up to 10 years in prison.
The government blatantly stole wealth from the American people.
Many worry the U.S. government might confiscate gold again if it becomes desperate enough. I don’t think those fears are unfounded. The U.S. government’s abysmal financial situation is only getting worse.
But would it really do a 1933-style grab again?
I don’t think it will. However, there is another growing threat to your gold.
More Likely Than Outright Confiscation
Today, only a tiny fraction of the U.S. population owns gold. Heck, I’d bet most Americans have never even seen a gold coin, much less appreciate its value.
This wasn’t the case in 1933, when the U.S. was still on a variation of the gold standard. That’s why the government probably won’t repeat the 1933 rip-off. It’s simply not worth the effort.
If the government wants to confiscate wealth, it’s far more likely to go for the easy option… steadily debasing the currency by printing money. It’s a stealthy way to confiscate from savers.
That doesn’t mean gold owners are in the clear.
I think the government will try a new scam: taxing windfall profits on gold. This would make it much easier for the government to accomplish something similar to its 1933 heist.
There’s precedence for it, too. In 1980, Congress passed the Crude Oil Windfall Profit Tax Act, which taxed up to 70% of “windfall profits” of domestic oil producers.
What the heck is a windfall profit anyway?
As far as I can tell, it’s whatever politicians decide it is. It’s completely arbitrary. There are no objective measures to define it.
In short, a windfall profit is simply a profit politicians don’t like. The whole concept is a scam—a word trick to camouflage and sanitize legalized theft.
If the price of gold explodes, I wouldn’t be surprised if Congress passes a Fair Share Gold Windfall Profit Tax Act levying a tax of 80%, 90%, or more on gold profits.
Fortunately, there are some practical steps you can take to protect yourself from this form of politically motivated expropriation.
What to Do
One way you can avoid a windfall-profits tax on gold is to renounce your U.S. citizenship. But that’s a drastic step. It’s just not realistic for most people.
Thankfully, there’s a far more practical option. You can do it from your living room. And you don’t have to turn in your passport.
The solution is to own gold stocks in a Roth IRA.
A Roth IRA is a tax-free zone. You fund it with after-tax savings, and any future capital gains or income derived from investments in your Roth IRA are not taxable. While you can never be 100% sure what the U.S. government will do, it’s far less likely a future tax increase, even a windfall-profits tax, would affect investments in a Roth IRA. A Roth IRA is the most practical way to protect yourself from the most likely form of future gold confiscation—a windfall-profits tax. It makes you a hard target. All the details are in Doug’s latest video...
Big day for precious & semi-precious metals...
Our favorite Uncle Ted... The Greatest Lie Ever Told
Theodore Butler | July 18, 2016 - 11:25am
http://silverseek.com/commentary/greatest-lie-ever-told-15774
It’s important to understand that there is a big difference between a large short (or long) position held by many different traders and a large position held by a few traders. It’s impossible for hundreds or thousands of different traders to intentionally conspire to manipulate prices. Crowds may be irrational at times, but that’s far removed from deliberate price manipulation. Only a few traders conspiring together make manipulation possible and US commodity law recognizes that. That’s why the CFTC monitors and publishes concentration data. Of course, monitoring and publishing are different from preventing manipulation or busting it up when it exists.
The concept of preventing concentration is common in the body of all antitrust and anti-monopoly law and, in fact, is the basis for such law. And while simple in concept, it takes some effort to grasp why the concentrated short position is at the center of the silver manipulation.
In my case, the lightbulb that went off in my head when I first uncovered the COMEX silver manipulation 30 years ago had to do with the size of the total open interest in COMEX silver being so out of whack with all other commodities in terms of world production. It was years later, in the mid-1990’s, that I uncovered that the key feature was not just the size of the open interest, but in how few in number were the traders who were short. That’s the key and because I began to press the CFTC on the specific issue of concentration on the short side of COMEX silver, this is what led to greatest lie in the history of market regulation.
Because the issue of concentration is at the core of market regulation, whenever I wrote to the agency about the matter, particularly if great numbers of readers joined in, the CFTC was, in essence, forced to respond. In fact, not only did the agency respond to my concerns about the short side concentration in COMEX silver on more than one occasion, it also did so in public releases, both in May of 2004 and 2008 in separate 15 page letters. Of course, the CFTC vehemently denied on both occasions that there was any manipulation as a result of a short side concentration in COMEX silver futures.
Far from resolving the matter, the issue of concentration has never been more important than it is today, because the concentrated short position in silver (and gold) has never been larger than it is currently. But let me deal with the greatest lie ever first. In the 2008 public letter, the CFTC lied through its teeth. It took me a year and a half to uncover the lie because there was not sufficient data available to know that at the time. I try to avoid+ incessant linking to past articles, but this one won’t take very long. (Embedded in the article is the link to the CFTC’s 2008 public letter).
http://www.investmentrarities.com/ted_butler_comentary12-21-09.shtml
Let me summarize what the CFTC wrote and why it was a lie. The subject of the letter was the activity of large short traders in COMEX silver and the agency took great pains to dismiss any and all concerns of a short concentration causing any price manipulation or potential clearing failure. But check the timeline and the facts as we all have come to know them to be. The CFTC’s letter was dated May 13, 2008, nearly two months after Bear Stearns, who we now know was the largest concentrated short in COMEX silver and gold, went under, with its massive concentrated short position passed along to JPMorgan at the urging of banking authorities.
Why would anyone actually wish for bad to happen??? What would prompt such a question?
Other than your position, the world stock markets are on the cusp of crashing, with massive global hyperinflation to follow, making Gold good to go as the only investment?
Is wishing for global economic collapse, and hyperinflation to justify Gold as an investment suppose to be wishing for sumpthin "good" to happen? I don't understand that logic.
Since there is nothing to learn from you (and vice versa) today, I'm taking my toys and going home
Well, that's disconcerting. And to think the 2nd Brexit FUD tsunami wave is hitting the market today. Gold bugs should be happy today.
Since there is nothing to learn from you (and vice versa) today, I'm taking my toys and going home. GN
Those that get, get it. Those that do not get it, sadly, may never get it.
Why would anyone actually wish for bad to happen??? What would prompt such a question? Stop trolling this board for your entertainment. Nobody here is in the mood. We have enough banksters doing all that for free and doing it daily.
The homework I recommended was never done and that is obvious.
Finish the 4th on a high note.
No. Keeping smaller investors out of the market is the aim.
How does higher margin requirements for gold contracts keeps you the small investor from buying a... believe you liked the Canadian Maple Leaf gold coin?
No, it's to prevent a speculative bubble from forming, and popping. And the resulting volatility in the market. Is there something wrong in trying to prevent speculative bubbles?
Delusional reasoning in my view...
I try to stay away from it. LOL
Why do Gold bugs always wish for economic disaster?
Example: The wish in 2008 was for another Depression. Yet if one had bought gold at the beginning of Aug, instead of going to cash, it would've been a -20% loss for Gold.
So now the wish is for hyperinflation. That would make for an interesting world. Never mind deflation is the problem. What did the Fed do in the late 1970s-1980s to break inflation? They raised rates. Cooling off the economy, and inflation. What did the ECB do this past year? They lowered rates to be negative. Do you see the Fed aggressively raising rates? Nope. Doing so would take the economy into recession. What major central bank is currently concerned about inflation, much less hyper inflation? None.
There is no hyperinflation just around the corner. There is no inflation just around the corner. The post 2008 after effects are still with us.
Delusional reasoning in my view...
No systemic bank problem as in 2008, or even 2012 with the EU PIIGS affair.
No. Keeping smaller investors out of the market is the aim.
It’s clear that the Central Banks are desperate to keep the stock markets from plunging
The only central bank which went into desperado mode on Brexit was the BOE. Providing liquidity to Brit banks, which were being stressed out by the wild FX volatility - especially the ones involving the Pound.
Also note the markets have recovered from the Brexit FUD. Throughout the USD gained strength - ref the EUR/USD trade which is important for US commodities. The problem for the US remains a strong USD, causing deflationary pressure, not hyperinflation around the corner.
Gold should start a retreat from here. The markets have unwound from their Bremain bet they lost. No systemic bank problem as in 2008, or even 2012 with the EU PIIGS affair. Volatility in the FX market should go down. Watch the EUR/USD, and the JPY trades. Watch the price of oil, and whether it stays within sniffing range of 50.
In another words speculative betting on gold
is becoming more risky, requiring higher margins.
CME Group Hikes Comex Gold Margins Again, Cuts Palladium Margins
By Kitco News Friday July 01, 2016 07:40
http://www.kitco.com/news/2016-07-01/CME-Group-Hikes-Comex-Gold-Margins-Again-Cuts-Palladium-Margins.html
In the meantime, Palladium shoots ahead... semi-precious moving w/precious... LOL!!!
(Kitco News) - CME Group is hiking margins for Comex gold futures for the second time in a week, while the margin for Nymex palladium futures will decline, the exchange operator announced late Thursday.
As of the close of business on Friday, the margin for new speculative positions in the main Comex 100-ounce gold contact will rise to $6,600 from $6,050. As of a week ago, before an increase that went into effect on Monday, this margin had stood at $4,950.
The maintenance margin for existing speculative, plus all hedge positions, will rise to $6,000 from $5,500. As of a week ago, this stood at $4,500.
Meanwhile, for Nymex palladium futures, the margin for new speculative positions will decline to $3,850 from $4,620. The maintenance margin for existing speculative positions, plus all hedge positions, will fall to $3,500 from $4,200.
Margins act as collateral on trades in the futures market. CME Group said the changes were “per the normal review of market volatility to ensure adequate collateral coverage.”
CME Group also changed margins for a number of other markets, including increases for cocoa, soybeans and Japanese yen futures. A link to the complete notice can be seen right here.
By Allen Sykora of Kitco News; asykora@kitco.com
Gold And Silver Smell Central Bank Blood
Posted on July 1, 2016 by The Doc
http://www.silverdoctors.com/silver/silver-news/gold-and-silver-smell-central-bank-blood/
It’s clear that the Central Banks are desperate to keep the stock markets from plunging, despite the fact that the deterioration of economic and financial fundamentals globally – including and especially in the U.S. – has begun to accelerate.
Smart investors smell Central Bank blood and the latest market intervention just reeks of desperation. This is the dynamic that is propelling gold and silver higher, despite the preponderance of bearish calls from all corners of the market, including many precious metals market analysts.
The Central Banks went overboard with the latest round of stock market intervention. The recent increased movement of investment funds from fiat-based “assets” into gold/silver reflects the more widespread perception that the Central Banks are trapped by long series of bad policy decisions. The obvious conclusion is that Central Banks are now forced to hyperinflate the money supply or face a total stock market collapse.
Of course, the hyperinflation of currencies will do nothing to stimulate real economic growth or fix the completely unmanageable global debt and derivatives problem.
$SILVER w/a MONSTER move... +$1.23 today.
Short term rejoicing for the Gold bugs?
The Brexit saga has the FUD really swirling. The worst case scenario is basically it causes a severe global recession, extending to the US. The last currency of strength the USD goes down with the US economy. Only "currency" left standing is Gold. A short term spike in Gold could be coming up.
Large Pharma stocks with large revenue from the EU getting trashed today. They've had to fight the EUR/USD headwind for almost a year. Stir in Brexit FUD, and the effect on resulting pharma regulation.
Commodity stocks got hit Friday, and a little yesterday. Some are trying to hold today. WTI trying to hold 48.40.
VIX up. UST bills lowest level since 2012. Germany&Japan negative out to 12 yrs.
Still have a week to go before the Brexit vote. Such fun.
Yes, there I agree about the Gold Krugerand. Also, I really like the purity of the Maple Leafs - both Gold and Silver.
There is nothing left but agree to disagree about how all this will end... Ugly...
Note the market today is in a tizzy. Why? Because the sovereign bond market in the EU is crashing. Why? Fears of deflation in the EU. Flight to safety. Yes, it's benefiting gold prices, along with USD prices.
We don't disagree there is the potential for hyper-inflation in the future. Where we disagree is that it's guaranteed to happen, or that it's just around the corner. Deflation is the current problem.
As a side note if one wants to be a gold bug, then become a pure one. Buy 1 oz Krugerands. Being in a gold stock does nothing. Why? Because a gold stock represents a mining company. A mining company is... a company. Subject to loans, debt, and the economy in which it operates. I was following one NYSE $12-19 gold stock back in 2008 as the financial crisis started to occur. I had traded it off/on several times for minimal profit. The Long&Strong crowd was literally cheering as the 2008 crisis unfolded. Only problem is although gold went up, gold stocks went down. After awhile the cheering for gloom&doom stopped, as the stock PPS hit $4. Besides, I've always thought Krugerands look neat. ;)
There is nothing left but agree to disagree about how all this will end... Ugly...
In a world awash in phony currency without anything of value to back the currency, then, there is only one(1) way out... Hyper inflation. Already seen in shelter, food and clothing. Who gives a rats anything about oil except the producers. You have the charts and links to them. I know what I know. Good luck.
Not exactly...
When you look at WTI oil, it's up +81% from its lows of 28 early this year. But its current 50 handle is still -50% below the 100+ it was add in 2014. My oil stocks would be giggling with joy if it got to 65 by EOY, and held. And it would represent more inflation then today, but nowhere close to where it had been in 2014, or even earlier. OPEC flooding the market essentially exporting deflation to the West has been a problem.
Base metals are also in the crapper. No inflation there.
Draghi, and the ECB now buying junk bonds to pump money into the EU economy. Hoping to generate inflation, and not getting there. The USD rising in response, with the Fed on the verge (Jul) of raising rates, making the USD stronger. Hardly inflationary for the US consumer buying foreign made goods.
Then one will have US manufacturing fighting against cheaper foreign made goods. Will they raise US worker salaries against weaker sales? Not likely. Inflation occurs when wages&prices go up.
The only real inflationary force in the US is healthcare. Food prices is cyclic, and depends on the weather.
What we need for inflation in the US is for the EU to get its act together. Where they are trying to recover from their PIIGS syndrome of 2011-2012, just in time for a potential Brexit. If a Brexit happens, the USD will just get stronger. The only way Gold wins in that scenario is for the EU to completely collapse, taking the global economy including the US into a deep recession. Trashing all currencies. Creating fear, and panic. Not the greatest thing to wish for.
The best case scenario would be for the EU to recover while avoiding a Brexit. With the EUR strengthening against the USD. OPEC dropping production, with oil prices going up. China's economy becoming stronger again, taking base metals up. And the US Fed lagging behind on raising interest rates as these inflationary pressures mount, with the USD falling. A good set up for Gold to go up. This scenario seems far off at the moment. Too many things are blocking the way currently.
It needs inflation, and there isn't any globally.
The following is regarding families and families are always battling the inflationary cycles so if not one thing then always another:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=123107402
The following is regarding commodity assets YTD performance (look at all that food inflation coming... ) where $SILVER is #6 and $GOLD is #8 of ALL commodities:
http://finviz.com/futures_performance.ashx?v=17
The following is regarding rent as searched in Google and it looks like rent inflation has been discussed at length for some years now:
https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=rent+inflation&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8
And, a chart of the CRB:
McEwen Mining Sees Cash Holdings Increase 169% From Dec 2014
by Neils Christensen
Friday June 03, 2016 11:33
http://www.kitco.com/news/2016-06-03/McEwen-Mining-Sees-Cash-Holdings-Increase-169-From-Dec-2014.html
(Kitco News) - After suffering through a four-year bear market, the once-cash starved mining sector is seeing capital inflows.
McEwen Mining is a prime example of a mining company that is reaping the benefits of lower production costs, higher gold prices and higher production improving its balance sheet.
The company held its Annual General meeting May 31, with the company highlighting its balance sheet growth since the start of the year. As of May 27, the company saw its cash holdings rise to $33.26 million, up from $25.87 million as of Dec. 31 2015.
The company’s gold and silver stockpiles increased to $21.51 million, up from $5.07 million in December and its investment in junior minors has increased to $1.93 million, up from $1.03 million.
Since December 2014, the company has seen its cash reserves increase by 168%, its gold and silver inventory increase 341%, and its investments increase by 78%.
In an interview with Kitco News, Rob McEwen, CEO of McEwen said that the company doesn’t have any purchasing plans on the books this year; however, he added that you can never say never if they find a project with the right price.
“I think now would be a good time to buy but you have to find the right price. I wouldn’t want to buy something that is overvalued,” he said.
McEwen said the company’s general plan is to continue to accumulate capital, which he explained will be needed in 2017.
“We are planning to start construction of our Gold Bar project in the first quarter of 2017. The capex costs are expected to be around $60 million and we expect to be able to internally fund at least two-third of the construction costs,” he said.
According to the company’s feasibility study for its Gold Bar property in central Nevada, construction is expected be finished by 2018. The mine is expected to produce 65,000 ounces of gold per year with estimated per ounce cash costs of $728.
Another benefit of the company’s increase in cash holdings is that McEwen got a raise.
“After working for almost 10 years without a salary I have been given a raise to $1 a year,” he said. “I guess with a 169% increase in cash reserves, the board felt comfortable to pay me something.”
By Neils Christensen of Kitco News; nchristensen@kitco.com
A Few Questions To Those Who Slam Gold
The simple answer to all questions: Gold is the "currency" of last resort, against the USD in times of inflation. It needs inflation, and there isn't any globally.
Instead the global economies are struggling with deflation. The PBOC, BOJ trying to deflate their currencies so as encourage inflation, and stimulate their economies. Then the ECB responds. The only central bank siting tight, and not trying to race to the bottom is the US Fed. Thus, the USD strengthens against Gold. Then we have the Fed worrying they might get behind the curve on raising rates. Further strengthening the USD. What happened when Yellen (aka The Honey Badger) last week implied a rate hike was quite probable in Jul or even Jun? The EUR took a dump against the USD. More strength for the USD, and Gold went down.
A major source of the deflation is OPEC. Exporting deflation to the ROW in the form of flooding the market with cheap oil. It also has a deflationary effect on the US economy. Shale oil in 2014 accounted for somewhere close to 70% of business growth, and loans. It was a growth story, helping the US balance of trade. Also a potential inflationary growth story. But then the Saudis declared an economic oil war on the US oil industry. A deflationary story now, with the oil industry hunkered down. The banks which lend the money out, forced to set aside reserves to cover potential high risk loans. Less money to lend out. Deflationary to the US economy. But Honey Badger don't care. Hike those rates.
Until oil recovers, with base metals following, inflation is going to be hard to generate in the US, and globally. Instead it's the problem of deflation, which is worse outside the US. Resulting in a stronger USD, with Gold going down in response. Until then the USD will keep getting stronger (e.g. don't invest in US biotech with large earnings in the EU - they are getting a major hit via the EUR/USD FX exchange). Gold hasn't hit bottom yet. It won't until the deflationary pressures in the ROW goes away. Where the other currencies recover, with the USD going down.
Hecla to Acquire Mines Management
Tuesday, May 24th
http://www.silverseek.com/article/hecla-acquire-mines-management-15597
SPOKANE, Wash., May 24, 2016 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Mines Management, Inc. (NYSE MKT: MGN, TSX: MGT) (Mines Management) and Hecla Mining Company (NYSE:HL) (Hecla) today announced a merger agreement with Hecla acquiring Mines Management. In the proposed merger, each outstanding common share[1] of Mines Management will be exchanged for 0.2218 of a common share of Hecla. This represents a 41% premium to Mines Management, using both companies' 10 day VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) on May 20, 2016. The transaction is expected to close in the third quarter, 2016. The transaction is subject to approval by Mines Management shareholders and other closing conditions.
Following closing of the merger, Hecla intends to advance the evaluation program of Montanore. Located in northwestern Montana, Montanore is considered one of the largest undeveloped silver and copper deposits in North America. The project is approximately 10 miles from Hecla's Rock Creek project and 50 miles north of Hecla's Lucky Friday Mine in Idaho.
"The Montanore Project has been significantly advanced by Mines Management and, with the issuance of the final Environmental Impact Statement and Records of Decision early this year, now is the time to pass it on to Hecla to further advance the project and put it into production," said Glenn Dobbs, Mines Management's CEO and Chairman.
"Hecla is the logical company to move Montanore forward, with its close proximity to Rock Creek, as well as its similar geology and scale," said Phillips S. Baker, Jr., Hecla's President and CEO. "We have considerable experience operating Greens Creek in a National Monument which will, combined with our financial strength and commitment to the community and environment, help Montanore reach its full potential."
A Few Questions To Those Who Slam Gold
Submitted by Phoenix Capital Research on 05/27/2016 10:32 -0400
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-27/few-questions-those-who-slam-gold
Silver Miners’ Q1’16 Fundamentals
Adam Hamilton | May 20, 2016 - 11:39am
http://www.silverseek.com/commentary/silver-miners’-q1’16-fundamentals-15589
I want to look at the elite silver miners’ results, the biggest and best companies out there with the most-widely-held stocks. And they are all owned by the overwhelmingly-dominant silver-stock ETF, which is the SIL Global X Silver Miners ETF. As of this week SIL had $286m in assets. That was a whopping 6.2x larger than its next-biggest competitor’s mere $46m, the SLVP iShares MSCI Global Silver Miners ETF.
Alasdair Macleod: If You’ve Got Gold, You’ve Got Money; If You Haven’t Got Gold, You’ve Got a Problem - The Daily Coin May 5, 2016
https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/alasdair-macleod-if-youve-got-gold-youve-got-money-if-you-havent-got-gold-youve-got-a-problem-the-daily-coin.html
Akin to ancient Rome, the United States has over-extended herself. She has created a climate that could easily be transformed into a war on a slight pretext. Wars, as it is well known are also a means a nation can extricate itself from debt and financial responsibility. – The U.S. Endgame, Jeremiah Johnson (nom de plume, retired U.S. Special Forces, excerpt from Zero Hedge
One would have to be blinded from either denial or ignorance not see the escalating political and military tension between the U.S. and Russia/China. While the U.S. media spins the story into a tall-tale in which BRIC nation leaders are the provocateurs, the truth is that the U.S. has transformed its illegitimate “war on terror” into war on the world in a last-gasp attempt hold onto the economic and geopolitical hegemony it has enjoyed for several decades.
When you see that men get richer by graft and pull than by work, and your laws don’t protect you against them, but protect them against you – you see corruption being rewarded and honesty becoming a self-sacrifice – you may know that your society is doomed. – Francisco’s “Money Speech,” from “Atlas Shrugged”
If you reread that passage, think about how it applies to the Patriot Act, Homeland Security Act, Wall Street, the Justice Department and Hillary Clinton. It’s pretty obvious the U.S. is collapsing economically, politically and socially.
Perhaps the one last chance at saving the United States is embracing the truth – the truth as it is and not the “truth” the U.S. Government would have you believe. But economic and political truth is seeded in honest money – think about the Federal Reserve, the Comex and the political elitists in the context of this passage from “Atlas Shrugged:”
Whenever destroyers appear among men, they start by destroying money, for money is men’s protection and base of a moral existence. Destroyers seize gold and leave to its owners a counterfeit pile of paper. – Francisco “Money Speech”
The San Francisco Fed’s “President,” John Williams was blowing his weekly smoke on Monday. He said that higher interest rates would trigger “big movements downward” in asset valuations. He didn’t exactly discover plutonium with that revelation. But with his comments, Williams inadvertently admitted that the policy makers were responsible for creating what is now the biggest asset bubble in history. This is not going to end well.
The Shadow of Truth hosted Alasdair Macleod for a discussion which ties into the ongoing financial, economic and political collapse of the United States. Alasdair offers some original insight into the manner in which the inevitable geopolitical and financial “reset” might unfold:
Until and unless you discover that money is the root of all good, you ask for your own destruction. When money ceases to be the tool by which men deal with one another, then men become the tools of men. Blood, whips and guns – or dollars. Take your choice – there is no other – and your time is running out. – Francisco “Money Speech”
This is the biggest violet diamond Rio Tinto has ever found
Cecilia Jamasmie | 2 days ago
http://www.mining.com/biggest-violet-diamond-rio-tinto-ever-found/
The oval shaped rock, known as the Argyle Violet, will be the centrepiece of the 2016 Argyle Pink diamonds tender, the annual showcase of rarest diamonds unearthed from the mine.
The Argyle Violet, found in August last year, originally weighed 9.17 carats and had etchings, pits and crevices. The company says it took more than 80 hours of work to polish it down to what is now.
While the company did put a figure on the diamond’s worth, it is estimated the gem could attract offers anywhere from $1m to $2m a carat.
Is April 19th the Catalyst?
by Brian Cowan 14/04/2016 9:52 PM
https://www.marketslant.com/articles/april-19th-catalyst
Will April 19 2016 be the Catalyst?
Recently, there have been many articles about the new Chinese gold contract being launched on April 19. The popular opinion is that we may have real price discovery again in the precious metals sector. Why? The contract must be settled in physical gold, unlike most of the contracts in the west that settle in cash. The additional physical demand attributed to the contract could be huge. The western banks were asked to participate, but to my knowledge only Standard Chartered and ANZ have got on board. How will the rest of the banks be able to deal with this new contract? The precious metals derivative books of the major western banks are huge and should certainly feel threatened by this new contract. But don’t expect these banks to truly suffer, as it is widely speculated that they control precious metals prices on behalf of the Fed. And the Fed will bail them out in the name of national security. The Fed justifies this manipulation as price stability, which is a key mandate for the Fed and many central banks.
Currently, the Chinese are looking for a way to convert their paper into tangible assets. Real estate has been a huge beneficiary. As an example, it is generally agreed that most of the speculation in the Vancouver B.C. real estate market is being driven by the Chinese. But where will the Chinese money turn next? As we know the Chinese have a love of gold, and will look to this new contract as a way of diversifying out of paper.
On the horizon there are many bullish factors for this contract. Firstly, if this contract performs as it should, many of the miners who are currently giving their assets away, will look to supply this market and bypass the highly manipulated contracts in the west. Secondly, in October of this year the yuan is included in the SDR, which most central banks reference to adjust their reserves. This means selling of U.S. dollars as they rebalance. Historically whenever there is USD weakness, precious metals appreciate.
Thirdly, as the world economy slows we have a surplus of copper and other industrial metals. Copper miners have been a big supplier of precious metals and as they curtail operations there will be less precious metals supplied to the market.
Finally, as global debt levels continue to increase and central banks pursue negative interest rates, precious metals cannot be ignored as a hedge for disaster. More and more money managers will realize the attractiveness of precious metals in their portfolios.
In summary, no one can predict exactly how this event will unfold. It is interesting that a special meeting was held by the Fed last Monday. It wouldn’t surprise me if this new contract was discussed and a strategy devised to deal with it. Or maybe they realize they have kicked the can to the end of the road and hit a wall.
By the way anyone remember the central bank term “Escape Velocity” ?
Experiment never worked!
Almaden Minerals: finally... jumps on this news release from Yahoo:
95cents premarket... almost there...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/compelling-gold-silver-project-almaden-121000604.html
Compelling Gold and Silver Project at Almaden Minerals
NEW YORK, NY / ACCESSWIRE / April 8, 2016 / Almaden Minerals Ltd. (NYSE MKT: AAU) is an exploration stage company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development of mineral properties in Canada, the U.S. and Mexico. The company owns 100% of the Tuligtic project in Puebla State, Mexico. Tuligtic covers the Ixtaca Gold-Silver Deposit, which was discovered by Almaden in 2010. The deposit is an epithermal gold-silver deposit, mostly hosted by veins in carbonate units and crosscutting dykes with a minor component of disseminated mineralization hosted in overlying volcanic rocks. The project is in a developed area of Mexico accessed by paved road and is roughly 20 kilometers from an industrial park with rail service.
What could the development of the Ixtaca project mean for the company's stock price?
Get the price target and analyst comments on Almaden Minerals Ltd. (AAU) please follow this link. There is no cost obligation required to view analyst brief: broadstreetalerts.com/aau-analyst/
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