Not exactly...
When you look at WTI oil, it's up +81% from its lows of 28 early this year. But its current 50 handle is still -50% below the 100+ it was add in 2014. My oil stocks would be giggling with joy if it got to 65 by EOY, and held. And it would represent more inflation then today, but nowhere close to where it had been in 2014, or even earlier. OPEC flooding the market essentially exporting deflation to the West has been a problem.
Base metals are also in the crapper. No inflation there.
Draghi, and the ECB now buying junk bonds to pump money into the EU economy. Hoping to generate inflation, and not getting there. The USD rising in response, with the Fed on the verge (Jul) of raising rates, making the USD stronger. Hardly inflationary for the US consumer buying foreign made goods.
Then one will have US manufacturing fighting against cheaper foreign made goods. Will they raise US worker salaries against weaker sales? Not likely. Inflation occurs when wages&prices go up.
The only real inflationary force in the US is healthcare. Food prices is cyclic, and depends on the weather.
What we need for inflation in the US is for the EU to get its act together. Where they are trying to recover from their PIIGS syndrome of 2011-2012, just in time for a potential Brexit. If a Brexit happens, the USD will just get stronger. The only way Gold wins in that scenario is for the EU to completely collapse, taking the global economy including the US into a deep recession. Trashing all currencies. Creating fear, and panic. Not the greatest thing to wish for.
The best case scenario would be for the EU to recover while avoiding a Brexit. With the EUR strengthening against the USD. OPEC dropping production, with oil prices going up. China's economy becoming stronger again, taking base metals up. And the US Fed lagging behind on raising interest rates as these inflationary pressures mount, with the USD falling. A good set up for Gold to go up. This scenario seems far off at the moment. Too many things are blocking the way currently.
The Jewel of the Mind is Colored with the Hue of what it Imagines
