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AFRNF CUSIP suspended. FINRA deleted symbol:
http://otce.finra.org/DLDeletions
How significant is this news?
Octant Energy To Purchase Afren Assets in Tanzania and Kenya http://ht.ly/U7zQR
FINAL PUSH TODAY - READ THE VIEWS OF OUR FELLOW SHAREHOLDERS AND ADD YOURS
Could Everyone please copy and paste the text below and post it aggressively all BB's and Social media where ever you can we need the numbers and comments on this petition.
This will be submitted soon to our contacts in the Press, TV, Media and associated industry specialists both nationally and Internationally, times running out for us to be represented as a majority, we will be taken notice of.
The de-rampers and those trying hard will not appear here as its exposes their identification and add's support as another name on our petition.
LETS GET THIS COMPANY SAVED
******** PLEASE SHARE ********** NO IDIOTS HERE ***********
Get across and add your support, read the points and views of over 160 fellow investors in Afren and be part of the campaign to be part of the recovery
You do have a voice use it, this will be released to the press media in due course and we will have some representation on the Board to look after the interest of the PI's but only with your support
Times are changing
hxxps://www.change.org/p/afren-board-of-directors-bondholders-listen-to-your-shareholders
diluting mm's dropping ask, I'm out @ .09
nah, just gambling on a good chart setup, sorry!
good buy Have you any word as to when AFRN will drill Kenya? tia
Any one know if AFRN is still going to drill in Kenya in 2014?
I don't get any reply form their investor relations
I haven't followed Afren close enough to have noticed.
Tobb did I dream it or did I see a report that the tract Afrn is to drill for TAIPF has tar pits similar to the Labra tar pits in Los Angeles? I can't fimnd that report now.
Gosh jsc, I haven't looked in here
in 2 1/2 years, I'm sorry.
SCREAMING EAGLE or WildcatDriller may know if they're still around.
Wildbilly do you know if or when AFRN will drill the TAIPF block tia
How Much Lower Can Afren Plc Go?
(Afren is operator of Taipan's Kenya Block 1, Afren (EAX) 80%, Taipan 20% working interest)
Below text from the Full Article
Investors quickly turned their backs on Afren (LSE: AFR), after the company revealed that its chief executive and chief operating officer had been suspended, for allegedly benefitting from unauthorised payments.
In cases like this, the market often over reacts and Afren’s sell-off over the past few days is a great example of this.
Further, Afren’s underlying business is apparently unaffected by the debacle. So is this a great buying opportunity?
Net asset
Recent declines have sent Afren crashing to a near three-year low, as a result, the company is now trading at a significant discount to its net asset value per share.
Estimates vary, but at present levels the company could be trading around one third below its core net assets value, an impressive discount, and one that may be too good to pass up.
But some City analysts have warned that even this deep discount to net asset value may not be enough. Analysts at Canaccord Genuity have lowered their price target on Afren’s shares to 120p, from 150p, stating that the shares were “not cheap enough”.
Bad news
Nevertheless, this news comes at a bad time for Afren. While some analysts have stated that the news could be a sing of improving corporate governance, a long-term positive for the company, others have picked out falling profits and a lack of information surrounding the scandal.
In particular, some City analysts expect Afren to report gross profit of $247m for the first half of this year, down 34% year on year. Pre-tax profit is also expected to fall 37% to $164m. Afren’s interim results are currently delayed and their release is unlikely to come any time soon.
What’s more, Afren has a number of key assets located within the Kurdistan region of Iraq, a region that during the past few days has seen fierce fighting. There is a risk the region could be overrun by militants, or even flooded.
Unfortunately, there are now just too many variables and uncertainties that could affect Afren’s results and outlook going forward.
What to do?
So what should investors do following this news? Well, there is no doubt that Afren is now a high-risk investment. There is a chance that the company’s shares could fall much further, especially if no information is forthcoming about either the delayed results, or management’s investigation into the unauthorised payments.
Still, Afren's underlying business continues to perform well and the company is currently trading at a discount to net asset value. Afren could be a good bet for investors with a high risk tolerance.
First half revenue $771,700,000, up from $161,000,000 yoy!
Over $500,000,000 cash flow!
OilVoice Morning Movers - Afren, Ophir Energy and Heritage Oil
Tuesday, August 21, 2012
Afren (LON:AFR) announced this morning record financial results, driven by the year-on-year increase in net production from the Ebok field offshore Nigeria. Total revenues for the six months to the end of June were $771.7m, up from $161m in the same period last year.
Osman Shahenshah, Chief Executive of Afren plc, said: "The first half of 2012 has been a period of notable success for Afren across all fronts. The strong financial results, with over seven hundred million dollars of revenue and half a billion dollars of net operating cash flow, all from Afren's greenfield developments, is testimony to our strong and established operating track record. The Okoro East and Ebok North Fault Block discoveries in Nigeria and Simrit-2 discovery in the Kurdistan region of Iraq will add significantly to the already material 2P reserves base of 185 million barrels and 2P/2C base of 995 million barrels of oil equivalent. In East Africa, the on-going maturing of the portfolio has resulted in a mean prospective resources upgrade to 5,838 million barrels of oil equivalent (from 2,113 million barrels of oil equivalent). With a number of high impact exploration wells to be drilled in both West and East Africa and the Kurdistan region of Iraq, and the growing production base, Afren is well placed for continued success".
Broker FoxDavies said: 'Prospective acreage positions in the markets which are target M&A potential along with the established track record of successfully delivering through high-impact exploration campaigns, we believe Afren's share price is highly discounted despite strong fundamentals.'
Afren are currently trading at 127.50 pence a share, up 0.79% on opening.
http://www.oilvoice.com/n/OilVoice_Morning_Movers_Afren_Ophir_Energy_and_Heritage_Oil/5c4da50a7220.aspx
JB
I bought in at 1.83
Very good 5/15/12 Interim Management Statement:
http://www.afren.com/news_and_media/press_releases/
Merril Lynch and Morgan Stanley have very bullish price targets:
http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/42831/afrens-2012-exploration-campaign-could-be-a-game-changer-says-broker--42831.html
GL,
JB
Big potential here all it will take is time. They are in all of the right places.
PPS appears back on track now.
Afren reports $121.71mm for 2011 v. $45.26 mm for 2010
Mar 29, 2012 (Datamonitor via COMTEX) -- Afren plc, an independent upstream oil
and gas exploration and production company, has reported a profit of $121.71
million, or 11.5 cents per diluted share, for the year ended December 31, 2011,
compared to $45.26 million, or 4.8 cents per diluted share, for the year ended
December 31, 2010.
Revenue for the year ended December 31, 2011 was $596.66 million, compared to
$319.45 million for the year ended December 31, 2010.
Operating profit for the year ended December 31, 2011 was $268.15 million,
compared to $88.99 million for the year ended December 31, 2010.
Gross profit for the year ended December 31, 2011 was $302.35 million, compared
to $129 million for the year ended December 31, 2010.
Osman Shahenshah, CEO of Afren plc, said: "The 2011 results reflect the growing
maturity of our business, with record net profit of US$125 million, up 172% on
2010 and an increase of 2P reserves by 132% to 185 mmboe. We have a made a
successful start to our multi-well exploration campaign for 2012 with a
significant new discovery offshore Nigeria. We have a visible production
trajectory to 100,000 boepd by 2017 and a mature capital structure that will
internally fund both organic and inorganic opportunities.
"Since the Company was listed in 2005, we have demonstrated strategic foresight
and taken significant positions in Nigeria, East Africa and the Kurdistan region
of Iraq, at a cost of entry highly accretive to our shareholders, coupled with a
strong track record of operational delivery."
URL: http://www.datamonitor.com
Source: Comtex Wall Street News
Big oil groups join scramble for east Africa
Statoil set the oil industry abuzz late last month when it announced it had found large volumes of natural gas off the coast of Tanzania, confirming east Africa’s reputation as one of the energy world’s most promising new frontiers.
The find is “fantastic”, says Tim Dodson, Statoil’s head of exploration – “our biggest ever discovery as operator outside Norway”.
African waters can be treacherous, however. Statoil had lockdown facilities on all its rigs and support vessels to keep staff safe in the event of a pirate attack, while a small flotilla, operated by security contractors and Tanzanian navy personnel, guards the drilling site.
The threat of piracy might loom large, but it has not prevented a new scramble for east Africa, led by some of the world’s biggest oil companies. Suddenly Mozambique and Tanzania, which until recently did not even feature on the world energy map, have become some of the gas industry's hottest real estate.
The interest was underscored last month when Royal Dutch Shell and PTT Exploration, the state-controlled Thai energy group, launched rival offers for Cove Energy, a small Africa-focused oil and gas explorer with an 8.5 per cent stake in a big gas field in Mozambique.
Two state-owned Indian groups, GAIL and ONGC, have also expressed an interest in bidding for Cove, though an announcement by the Mozambique authorities last week that they might impose a capital gains tax on the sale of the London-based group could deter potential bidders.
Even the threat of tax hits, however, cannot diminish the appeal of an area that has yielded a series of big discoveries over the past couple of years, of which Cove’s field is one. “With gas exploration you have to find an elephant field to make it worthwhile,” says Simon Ashby-Rudd, an oil investment banker at Standard Bank.
“They didn’t just find one elephant – they found a herd.”
The biggest finds were offshore Mozambique, by Anadarko Petroleum and Cove, and Eni of Italy. Their two fields combined could contain up to 60tn cubic feet of recoverable resources of gas – nearly as much as Kuwait’s entire reserves. That should be enough to turn Mozambique into a key exporter of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, to China and India’s fast-growing economies.
And with the region still relatively unexplored, there could be plenty more where that came from, analysts say.
Fewer than 500 wells have been drilled in east Africa, compared with some 20,000 in the north and nearly 15,000 in the west of the continent, according to explorer Afren.
Eni’s gas discovery was “one of the most important we’ve had in our history, in terms of the quality of the reservoir, its dimensions and the markets it’s close to”, says Claudio Descalzi, chief operating officer of Eni’s exploration and production division. “It’s transformational for us.”
For years, exploration in east Africa was dominated by small UK-based drillers, such as Afren, Aminex and Ophir Energy, which is backed by the Mittal family. The majors shunned it because there was more gas than oil.
But the growth in Asian demand for LNG has made gas a lot more valuable.
Still, few expected a country such as Mozambique to become a big natural gas operator.
“Three years ago, when we were discussing where the future sources of LNG supply would be, east Africa wasn’t even on the list,” says Frank Harris, head of LNG at energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie.
Drawn by the minnows’ promising exploration results, the majors gradually began to move in. Statoil, Shell, Petrobras and ExxonMobil are in Tanzania, while Eni is established in Mozambique.
Analysts expect others to follow as smaller participants sell out, deterred by the big expense of funding big gas liquefaction and export projects. Anadarko has announced it is looking to sell some of its stake in the Mozambique field, and Cove put itself up for sale in January.
As the majors pile in, the pace of drilling is picking up. Morgan Stanley expects 23 wells to be drilled off Kenya, Tanzania and Mozambique this year, almost double the number in 2011.
“Eastern sub-Saharan Africa has a lot of potential to grow quickly, and create a lot of value for us,” says Eni’s Mr Descalzi. “It’s a very exciting moment, both for us and the countries we’re in.”
Demand for liquefied natural gas forecast to double in next decade
Underpinning the appeal of east Africa is demand for liquefied natural gas in the Asia-Pacific region, which according to Bernstein Research is growing at 20 per cent year on year.
That is part of a strong global picture. Bernstein expects demand for LNG to nearly double over the next decade to 408m tonnes a year.
Bernstein says LNG’s rising fortunes are driven by three factors: the effects of the Fukushima disaster, which encouraged Japan to switch from nuclear to gas; a long-term increase in European demand as North Sea supplies decline and countries such as Germany back away from atomic power; and the emergence of LNG buyers in China, India, the Middle East and Latin America.
Kenyan Block 1 Partners Afren PLC and Lion Petroleum Commence 1800 KM 2D Seismic Program
LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM, Mar 12, 2012 (MARKETWIRE via COMTEX) -- Lion Petroleum
Corp. ("Lion" or the "Company") announces that its partner Afren plc (LSE:
AFR.L) has started the acquisition of 1800 km of 2D seismic in Block 1,
north-eastern Kenya. This is a key step in the exploration of Block 1, which has
not seen exploration activity since approximately 1990. The seismic crew first
entered the area in late November, 2011. After building the seismic camp and
logistical preparations, recording of new seismic data has now commenced.
The purpose of the new seismic is to delineate exploration prospects for
drilling during 2013. Depending on rate of acquisition, the 1800 km survey
should be completed during the third quarter of 2012. The partnership is
utilising real-time field processing and interpretation of the new data.
The location of Block 1 is shown on the following map. Block 1 occupies over
31,781 square kilometres (7.8 million acres) in the Mandera Lugh basin, which
extends north into Ethiopia where it is known as the Ogaden basin. Lion has a 50
per cent (50%) working interest and is carried through the first 600 km of
seismic expected to cost approximately US$6 million gross, by Afren, the
operator, which farmed-into the licence.
To view the map associated with this press release, please visit the following
link: http://media3.marketwire.com/docs/LION0312.pdf.
In the first half of 2011, the partnership acquired airborne gravity and
magnetic data to define the major basin geometry and to plan the new seismic.
There is clear evidence of a working petroleum system in the basin. The
well-known Tarbaj oil seep is located in the south-west portion of Block 1. In
Ethiopia, close to the Block 1 border, the El Kuran 1 & 2 wells drilled by
Tenneco in 1972 encountered oil; an offset exploration well is expected to be
drilled later this year by Africa Oil. To the west of El Kuran, the Genale oil
seep occurs on the basin flank. Further north, the basin is gas productive from
the Hilal and Calub fields, which also have light oil.
Block 1 presents a very exciting exploration opportunity. Lion is pleased that
the recording of the new 2D seismic has now commenced, and looks forward to
defining multiple drill targets from the interpretation of the seismic, leading
to exploration drilling.
About Lion
Lion Petroleum Corp. is a private, London-based independent oil and gas
exploration company in Africa with a particular focus in Kenya and wider
ambitions for growth in the emerging frontier regions of the African continent.
Lion holds acreage for exploration in Block 1 and Block 2B in Kenya covering
9.7mm acres and is driven by a management team with combined 140 years
experience in exploration and a proven track record of success in Africa.
ON BEHALF OF THE BOARD
LION PETROLEUM CORP.
Alec Robinson, President and CEO
Disclaimer for Forward-Looking Information
Certain statements in this release are forward-looking statements, which reflect
the expectations of management regarding the exploration activities in the
region. Forward-looking statements consist of statements that are not purely
historical, including any statements regarding beliefs, plans, expectations or
intentions regarding the future. Such statements are subject to risks and
uncertainties that may cause actual results, performance or developments to
differ materially from those contained in the statements. No assurance can be
given that any of the events anticipated by the forward-looking statements will
occur or, if they do occur, what benefits the Company will obtain from them.
Contacts:
Lion Petroleum Corp.
Alec Robinson
President and CEO
+44 (0) 20 7222 8512
+44 (0) 20 7222 8251 (FAX)
info@lionpetroleumcorp.com
www.lionpetroleumcorp.com
ckeller13 & blue3116 re-post
re: catalysts, soon
JP Morgan Cazenove published a note today on the oil exploration and production sector and has highlighted key wells and catalysts to look out for in the first half of this year. Analyst Jessica Saadat said that in the investment bank's opinion, Afren (LON:AFR), Ophir (LON:OPHR), Genel (LON:OPHR) and Tullow (LON:TLW) offered investors the most interesting drilling campaigns this year.
In my opinion, I think a buyout of the Kurdistan properties, at a premium, is another near term possibility(re: catalysts).
Hopes this helps guys, it is O & G, which is synonymous with volatile no matter what the size of the market cap.
~cheers
The Kurdish Globe Saturday, 03 March 2012
Exxon announces 25-year oil deals with KRG
The Kurdish Globe
Other oil conglomerates likely to follow Exxon Mobil
Exxon's entry into the region has doubled share prices of smaller companies with existing contracts.
Breaking months of silence, ExxonMobil, the world's largest oil company, announced in its annual report that it plans to explore oil in Kurdistan Region. The oil giant first disclosed information about its investment plans in an announcement back in November 2011 by the Kurdistan Regional Government Minister of Natural Resources. Due to the central government's outrage over Exxon Mobil's decision; however, the company remained silent about the contract and quietly began operations in the Region. The public announcement that it signed production sharing contracts (PSCs) with the KRG, allowing the company to explore and produce oil in six fields throughout the Region came on February 24.
"Exploration and production activities in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq are governed by production sharing contracts negotiated with the Kurdistan Regional Government in 2011," read the company's annual report. "The exploration term is for five years with the possibility of a two-year extension. The production period is 20 years with the right to extend for five years."
The central government of Iraq, which has long stood against KRG's oil activities and vowed to blacklist international oil companies working in the Region, excluded Exxon Mobil from the new round of bids for new exploration contracts in the south of the country. It threatened to cancel its service contracts in the south and to terminate the company's contract for West Qurna 1 oilfield, but Exxon is still operating in the field and recently raised production by about 150,000 barrels per day.
Exxon's contract is expected to be followed by other oil giants. TOTAL, the French giant, is considering investing in the Region as the KRG's production-sharing contracts become more attractive than the service contracts offered by Baghdad.
As the number of unlicensed blocs decreases in Kurdistan, newcomers are left with one choice, which is to buy the existing license holders.
Being the first contract signed with an international oil giant, Exxon's entry into Kurdistan Region had significant multi-dimensional impacts. While it outraged Baghdad and increased tensions between Erbil and the center, it simultaneously made the Kurds more confident in their oil activities and the future. But it was also a message to the central government that its package to oil companies is not competitive compared to the more generous Kurdish package. The most recent impact, which became apparent after the publication of Exxon's annual report, was the soar in the share prices of the existing small and medium oil companies.
Tony Hayward, the CEO of Genel Energy, the largest producer of oil in Kurdistan Region, said that Exxon Mobil's entry into the industry has doubled the share prices of some oil companies operating in Kurdistan Region. Speaking at a press conference, he said that due to the rise in price, they are no longer planning to buy shares of Gulf Keystone and DNO.
"We do not intent on doing another big deal in Kurdistan Region. Anyone who thinks we're going to go and buy DNO is wrong; we're not," Hayward told reporters at a media briefing on Thursday, February 23. "The thing that changed it most is that Exxon arrived; 100 percent inflation in six months. DNO has doubled and GKP has doubled."
Genel is now moving focus toward the Middle East and Africa to invest its $1.9 billion in cash. "I think we'd be competitively advantaged because of our Turkish brand and our Turkish background in North Africa, because the role that Turkey's playing in helping those countries creates a new future," Hayward said.
http://www.kurdishglobe.net/display-article.html?id=C1F203F9EF56C5BC22F8DA5DDD0E3793
LSE.co.uk from the blogs:
The block Barda rash is said to have 14 billion barrels with 1.47 billion recoverable (10%) with 60% to Afren. The block next to GKP is said to have 7 billion 10% recoverable 20% to Afren with upside on both. I think the recoverable figures are conservative. I remember Gkp initially targeting 3 to 500 million barrels when they first started.
_________________________________________________
With a potential 21 billion barrels of oil in place in our kurdistan blocks plus all our African assets and an oil price docketing we look to be ripe for picking
_________________________________________________
Whittock acknowledged that the firm's Okoro East exploration well offshore south-east Nigeria is 'potentially significant', and if things go well there more upgrades could yet lift the shares higher. Analysts have said that the oil discovered there could be brought online soon, according to industry publication Rigzone.
'In addition,' Whittock said, 'Afren plans to spend around $260 million this year on an ambitious exploration and appraisal campaign, with the drilling of high-impact prospects in Ghana, Kenya, Kurdistan, Nigeria and Tanzania.'
Shares in the group closed at 137.70p on Wednesday, down 1.60p or 1.15%.
Exxon's Kurdistan
Check out the M&A and Licensing chart.
This is a good article to show the potential in the O & G market as well as the pitfalls on the world stage today.
Why did Exxon strike a deal with Kurdistan at the cost of upsetting Baghdad? Because Kurdistan offered up one of the greatest oil basins in the world, roughly half the size of Abu Dhabi.
It was one of the oil industry's worst kept secret - that Exxon Mobil has quietly signed a deal with Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) for six exploration blocks.
The central government in Baghdad fumed and fretted but Exxon remained mum for months, even as KRG announced the deal with great fanfare.
Iraq's central government has long held the view that all foreign oil contracts with the KRG are illegal, and it has been working on an oil law for some time, which aims to reconcile these differences with the KRG and other provinces.
At first Baghdad threatened to cancel Exxon's existing service contract for the massive West Qurna-1 oilfield in southern Iraq, but then told Exxon it could keep working if it froze its Kurdistan project.
Exxon finally ended its months of silence in its annual report.
"Exploration and production activities in the Kurdistan region of Iraq are governed by production-sharing contracts negotiated with the regional government of Kurdistan in 2011," said Exxon in its report.
"The exploration term is for five years with the possibility of two-year extensions. The production period is 20 years with the right to extend for five years."
Why did Exxon strike a deal with Kurdistan even though it threatened its huge West Qurna-1 deal?
Oil and gas research consultants IHS Energy says much of the acreage in the highly prospective Zagros Fold Belt region in Kurdistan ranks among the best basins in the world for large oil prospects and is now entering a period of consolidation as major players enter the market.
Despite the discovery of seven billion barrels of oil during the past five years, the majority of the known geological structures remains to be drilled, reports IHS in its IHS Herold Kurdistan Regional Play Assessment.
"The Zagros Foothills exploratory play in Kurdistan is the highest potential onshore area in the world, especially to be looking for oil. The drilling results there from the last several years easily justify the high ranking given to the area by my colleagues at IHS Global Insight," said Robert Gillon, director of energy company research at IHS, and co-author of the assessment along with Katherine Flynn, energy company equity analyst.
"The key here is that with the exception of some distant blocks on the Iranian border, nearly all the exploration licenses have been issued since 2007 -- there is no more land available. Despite the uncertain geopolitical situation, the play is ripe for consolidation, particularly for larger companies who wish to take advantage of the potential of this huge play and who have the financial resources and intestinal fortitude to stomach the significant risks."
HALF THE SIZE OF ABU DHABI
The area in the northeastern part of Iraq that's in play is spread over 35,000 square kilometres and is half the size of Abu Dhabi.
And ExxonMobil is not the first company to strike a deal in the Zagros Fold Belt, as the area has seen numerous discoveries and developments.
"While some of the large structures within the core of the fold belt were drilled and proven to be productive, the IHS report noted, none were commercially developed prior to 2006 due to internal political considerations," notes IHS.
The initial production sharing contract (PSC) was issued by the Kurdistan regional government to Genel Energy in July 2002 covering lands that included the Taq Taq structure. During June 2004, DNO International was awarded a production sharing agreement that included the Tawke structure. Since that time, 47 additional PSCs have been granted, for a total of 49 licenses awarded to date in the region.
According to Gillon, these licenses all have a five-year exploration period with a two-year extension possible. "The play is at the stage now where the operators must make declarations of commerciality or relinquish the acreage without going to production. Secondly, many of these licenses are held by smaller companies with limited financial resources. Their need for capital should make this region of interest to E&P clients, to their capital providers, and to equity investors."
RISKS GALORE
The area is not without its risk but it makes up for it with low transaction values of its reserves and a lower net present value of existing fields compared to other parts of the country.
According to IHS Herold company valuation analysis, several of the companies currently operating in the play are significantly undervalued in the market--by as much as one-fourth to one-half, which is likely due to several risk factors, although the entrance into the play by ExxonMobil and the interest shown by French oil giant Total has clearly been a benefit to the equity pricing of these smaller producers.
Total chief executive Christophe de Margerie recently said that his company was interested in Kurdistan.
"From what we are hearing the conditions of the fourth bidding round in Iraq do not appear very attractive," Christophe de Margerie said at an event. "The interest in Kurdistan is that there are plenty of gas and oil reserves there and contractual conditions are better."
This last point is attracting many of the major players and may serve as a great exit point for many of the independent players operating there.
"Taking into account the size and geographic spread of their acreage positions, as well as drilling results to date, there are several companies that stand to benefit most as the play evolves," said Giddon. "They pose very attractive acquisition targets."
But the oil companies also face technical challenges, such as lack of capacity in the pipeline system and the service industry which is not equipped to manage increased production.
"The value in the play is there, that is clear. What is not clear is whether that value will be realized in a timeframe that is acceptable to investors. The key to success for E&P companies operating in Kurdistan is that they must have a very high tolerance for risk, and they must be patient in waiting for a payday. The rewards may be great, but they may not be realized for some time," wrote Gillon.
M&A ACTIVITY
The area has seen a number of acquisitions in the region over the past six months. Recent deals include the USD4 billion Vallares and Genel Energy merger and a USD600 million Afren farm-in, which highlight the size of the resource and potential upside.
Vallares has indicated its intention to spend a part of its US$2.1bn cash balance on further acquisitions in Kurdistan over the medium-term and expressed interest in DNO's Kurdistan assets, but the presence of Exxon has now raised all valuations.
Citibank expects the licensing activity to slow down in the short term, as very few areas remain unlicensed.
"However, the industry's interest in the region continues to grow, and positive progress on the political issues could see M&A accelerate for the following reasons:
The exploration story for Kurdistan is now largely understood. The play has been de-risked by recent drilling. The availability of oilfield services and drilling equipment has improved in the last few years.
Despite recent activity, acquisition costs remain low on per barrel basis. Vallares' acquisition has valued Genel's 2P resource base at $6/bbl, and significantly lower if recent resource revisions are taken in account. Afren's recent acquisition was completed at US$2/ barrel.
A large number of licences are still held by small (often private) companies that have limited access to capital sufficient to fulfill exploration commitments.
"We believe some smaller players could be willing to reduce their stakes in exchange for financial and technical capacity to appropriately assess acreage prospectivity," notes Citibank.
A bilateral agreement between the KRG and the central government will likely serve a catalyst for majors to enter the region. The large-caps have so far been precluded from entering Kurdistan, and focused on developing supergiant fields in Southern Iraq.
Citibank see a final wave of consolidation, when these restrictions are lifted. "We believe large resource holders will be the focus of M&A activity by the majors (vs exploration acreage), unlocking value for small- and mid-cap players."
CONCLUSION
The arrival of Exxon Mobil and possibly Total has raised the stakes in Kurdistan and opened it up to fresh investment opportunities and also forced Baghdad's hand in finalising the oil law that has been pending for years.
In many ways it is a good development and the central government should seize it. The government could choose this moment to move forward with the oil and gas law and even make its own contracts more attractive to Big Oil.
That would usher in development not only in Kurdistan but wider Iraq as well.
http://www.zawya.com/story.cfm/sidZAWYA20120304053739
ckeller13...........................................................................................
Please understand, I'm very uncomfortable recommending a stock to anyone.
From the Ibox you can see that this isn't some micro-cap waiting on one well, or to dilute to raise money to begin production. This looks like a very focused group here. The company trades on one of the major exchanges in the world. AFRNF is the U.S. listing and it's pps reflects those of AFR:LSE, but without the volume. It also isn't likely to go on an astronomical run like SIOR recently did, a company positioned in a great area for the future, but without nearly the assets or maturity as Afren.
AFRNF's share price, like every other, anywhere, in any era, on any market can fall back on a setback or waiting for the next developements.
A small idea of the range of this company's interests from the Ibox:
________________________________________________________________
Our portfolio now extends to 31 assets in 12 countries, from Nigeria, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, Nigeria and São Tomé & Príncipe JDZ, Congo Brazzaville and South Africa, East African opportunities in Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Seychelles, Tanzania and more recently the Middle East through entry to the Kurdistan region of Iraq.??Our activities span the full-cycle E&P value chain of exploration, appraisal, development through to production, and are focused in areas that represent globally significant and growing sources of international oil supply and high impact exploration fairways.??Maintaining strong relationships with indigenous companies, National Oil Companies and suppliers are top Afren priorities - as are ambitious Corporate Social Responsibility and ethical policies that ensure significant resources re-enter local economies.
_______________________________________________________________
There is lots of information on recent developements contained in fairly recent posts. There are only a total of some 40 posts on the
board.
In the stickies, the raising of $300mm in capital last week may be dilutive near term, but is necessary to go forward to more fully
develop more of these assets listed above.
Good luck
Wildbilly,
I'm interested in buying alot of shares of AFRNF, but what other catlyst's you think are in play here?
I'm heavy in SSN, but thinking about putting my cash to work on a company that can take off quickly.
Seems like a lot of oil in Africa.
Could you please give me more information on AFRNF?
I need help on this one.
Do you think this stock could go run fast?
Looks like you know this company.
Thanks for your help.
In the 'stickies'
Morgan Stanley maintaining an Overweight is not insignificant.
A good source of potential can be found in recent posts and in the IBOX, astonishing imo. Also in the Stickies the just completed
$300mm raise in capital will be a big catalyst.
As far as projecting future pps, that's above my pay grade unfortunately.
If you're serious, do a little weekend reading, I think you'll be impressed. This isn't a momo, having said that, I've done quite well the last few months.
Hi All,
Recently stumbled across this board.
Can someone please list the upcoming catalysts as well as your projections for 2012-13? I realize no one has a crystal ball but I would like to hear ideas on estimates of SP as well.
TIA
The rate of growth here could be very, very impressive.