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Good going Murray!
Unfortunately volume on a 1" chart is not that reliable but PA is. Here's the lunch time up trend yesterday during which the 6E repeatedly found support and ultimately resistance (end of trend) on the 20 min Donchian. No TF is ideal all the time but I find it to be the best compromise.
I much prefer trading trending markets to oscillating as I suspect most do. If the market is trending strongly and the stair steps are >5t one can buy/sell the Donchian channel BOs and not worry about buying a Hx or selling a Lx. Although buying above a HL in an up trend or selling below a LH in a down trend is a safe bet.
Unfortunately in strong trends these opportunities do not always present themselves hence buying above the 20 min Donchian support and selling below it. Of course in a stong tend price does not always reach the 20 Donchain but when it reaches it in the proximity of a TL and/or 5 min 20 EMA, PRT, Daily pivot etc. they all add confidence to the trade.
Ultimately one has to read the PA and decide for himself where the best R/R is and enter the trade at that point. PA on 1 min bars speaks volumes. Unfortunately the IB data does not always the outlying ticks so I frequently get errant bars and sometimes errant fractals and TLs.
The more I use a 1 min chart to trade from the more I like it. If I could just stop myself from trading when PA is not ideal! I like small bars which are trending as in the attached chart.
nice call to buy 200 ema on spy
The signal remains on BUY.
Hi M. It's nice when the divers work, no?
gloe
HI woodfish, thanks for stopping by.
The "game" is always challenging but fun.
gloe
Still on BUY.
Just droppin a line
Just wanted to say Hi Gloe , it's been awhile. Hope this finds you well. Glad to see you are still pluggin away at this game , and I'm sure yer doin fine!
Woodfish
PS Hi to all the rest of ya 2
Agreed, however no TLBs on the MFI & CO yet and the higher PVO means volume is still increasing on lower prices. This last leg completes 3 declines in a wedge so now we get a correction but there is plenty of resistance over head including the 200 day MA on all the major indexes.
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:percentage_volume_os
Just look at your own chart that you posted. Lower lows in price but higher MFI and CO. And your PVO is moving UP not down with the lower prices.
The signal remains on BUY.
Right . . . yes, there are positive divers all over the place.
You are welcome, Lower Low as in Price Action (PA) swings.
Thanks for the chart. What's does "LL" mean?
Negative volume on the NYA is not increasing above prior levels on the LL (so far). Therefore the institutions are not heavily participating in this sell off. Although many of them probably already sold and are looking to accumulate soon. This Wychoff type positive divergence is indicative that a bottom may be near.
Hi M, thanks for the chart. Sling shots have a good record. I'll have to consider your comments.
Thanks gloe, seems like the Sling Shot should have taken priority when it appeared. I wonder if it's track record should have given it priority or does a contrary signal nullify the Main Signal and indicate no trade?
Here's a comparison of TLs on 3 indicators for the current sell off with prior sell offs. It appears that the Force Index TLBs are more reliable than the CO and therefore a better secondary indicator to the CCI.
masterthegap.com has free daily videos. pretty interesting if u want to take a look
The main signal is on Caution but still BUY. Do I like it? No, but it is what it is.
Nothing is perfect.
From the iBox:
Mark Douglas: The 5 Fundamental Truths of Trading
1. Anything can happen. 2. You don't need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money. 3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge. 4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another. 5. Every moment in the market is unique.
Thanks! Seems like this timing signal not the most "timely"here?
The main signal (MVI) and the sling shot are both end of day, though I can sometimes tell intra-day what the signal will be before all the data is in.
Hi gloe,
Which time frame are you using for your signals? Are they EOD and therefore a daily signal or do they appear intraday?
Another example of where I had a sling shot short signal (a couple of days ago) in the middle of an MVI BUY signal.
Still on BUY.
In conclusion I would say that in periods when the MACD Histogram was negative and falling it would not have worked consistantly to buy the VIX when the RSI 5 was below 30. One such occasion occurred the last week of last month and would have worked nicely however.
I presume that in periods of high volatility an inverse of the VTO will not work. It does appear that buying the VIX when the RSI 5 was below 20 and selling above 80 would have worked on a negative weekly MACD signal. In some cases the hold was months long however I believe they all 4 worked.
HI M, I always though the RUT (futures or ETFs) trended well for daytrading. Certainly better than some of the other indices.
Have no other suggestions.
I'm not surprised you like 6E. It is very news driven and there's plenty of news these days to drive it.
The main signal is still on BUY.
Hi gloe,
I have been trading the 6E because it trends well ON & RTH. Do you have any suggestions for other trading vehicles (Futures, ETFs or Stocks) which also trend well for day trading? Yesterday the Stock Indexes broke below their bear flags. Looks like the Indexes which have not yet reached their 200 DMA will force those that have below it.
TIA,
Murray
Still long here Gloe?
The signal is still on BUY.
Still on BUY.
It's complicated, so I'm just posting the signals.
I am talking about the indicators you are using to make the decision, not the actual decision. In other words do you act as a black box?
I don't know what you mean by making it public. I am posting the signals here.
Gloe, have you made your system public or are you just calling out the signals as you see them?
The signal is still on BUY.
Still on BUY.
It is always possible that any particular signal will not result in a satisfactory move in the indicated direction. A stop would be helpful, but we do have good support nearby (below). I personally did not like getting the BUY signal here; I personally will buy more TNA when/if SPX hits its 200 day MA, and stop out if SPX cannot hold that level.
Still on a buy here? Indications look like this might have just been a whipsaw.....?
The signal switched to BUY. I got out of my TZA today and bought TNA.
For Friday, I'd have to interpret the signal as CAUTION, though still on a SELL. How's that? The signal does not turn on a dime. It is designed to catch the "meat" of most moves.
If NDX, INDU and SPX were to get down to their 200 day MAs I'd be confident of a good sized relief rally. Those three are sitting within spitting distance of their 200 day MAs. NYA has already breached its 200 day MA and so has RUT, though just today.
The market is very oversold by some metrics. For example, the $NDXA50R and $SPXA50R (percent of stocks in the index above the 50 day MA) are both below 20, levels from which strong rallies have started. Though they of course can go lower.
[T]he rhythm [of the market] always changes and our ongoing job [as traders] is to recognize it on a daily basis and simply react. As I've said before, the finger always points one way -- inward. . . . [A]s with everything in trading, there's no one-size-fits-all answer and every successful trader on this planet has to discover his/her own way. From my hero Don Miller: http://donmillerjournal.blogspot.com/2009/04/wednesday-notes-watch-out.html
A few more favorite quotes:
To whatever degree you haven't accepted the risk, is the same degree to which you will avoid the risk. Trying to avoid something that is unavoidable will have disastrous effects on your ability to trade successfully. ~ Mark Douglas
Becoming a successful [trader] shares a lot with sports: the need for an edge, the absolute requirement for discipline, and Bill Belichick's comment, "more important than the will to win is the will to prepare to win." from rosen.blogspot.com
Mark Douglas: The 5 Fundamental Truths of Trading
1. Anything can happen. 2. You don't need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money. 3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge. 4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another. 5. Every moment in the market is unique.
Some trading Tactics and Set Ups: http://www.hardrightedge.com/tw.htm
The Psychological Risks in Trading http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=10679356
A favorite site: http://www.brettsteenbarger.com/weblog.htm and http://www.minyanville.com/ http://marketstockwatch.blogspot.com/
Great market comments and trade ideas: http://caracommunity.com/main_posts
Market Commentary and Charts: http://xrysos.blogspot.com/
Markets and Trading: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/
Market Wizards collection: http://www.hardrightedge.com/wizard.htm
Charts I like: http://fallondpicks.com/index.htm Winfree: http://tinyurl.com/eduy2 New: http://tinyurl.com/k85ej
Chan: http://tinyurl.com/wzrk Craig's List http://tinyurl.com/tpqoc
Breadth Charts: http://www.etfinvestmentoutlook.com/index.php
Sector Performance at a glance: http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/SPSectors.html
Eco/politics: http://robertreich.blogspot.com/
Free gurus:http://trendythird.blogspot.com/ http://gurutimer.com/index.html http://technitrend.blogspot.com/ http://xtrends.blogspot.com/
Quotetracker Charts Help: http://www.forum.qtusers.com/index.php
Charts: http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ES&p=m5
*New: Daytrading/Journal Blog: http://donmillerjournal.blogspot.com/
*New Essentials of Trading Blog: http://www.theessentialsoftrading.com/Blog/index.php/trading-articles/
*New from Dr. Brett: http://becomeyourowntradingcoach.blogspot.com/ His new book: http://www.amazon.com/Daily-Trading-Coach-Becoming-Psychologist/dp/0470398566/ref=pd_sim_b_2
Machines: http://www.tradingcomputers.com/
Good stuff here: http://slopeofhope.com/ http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showforum=2 here: http://www.philstockworld.com/ and here: http://www.ttheory.com/ http://unbiasedtrading.blogspot.com/ http://www.ubtnb3.blogspot.com/ http://benbittrolff.blogspot.com/ http://www.tradingtheodds.com/
Great blog, now X2: http://ronsen.blogspot.com/ http://sixtybyten.blogspot.com/
CME Holiday Calendar http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/holiday-calendar/
One final great quote: Human potential is the same for all. If you have will power, then you can change anything. ~Dalai Lama
Gloe with Sally Dog (RIP dear Doggie): http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=39881400
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Trading Strategies:
MarketSci Sector Rotation: http://marketsci.wordpress.com/2010/05/18/roundup-fundztrader-sector-rotation-strategy/
Blogs About Trading Strategies: http://en.wordpress.com/tag/trading-strategies/
The 10/20 MA Bullish Percentage Strategy: This is a LONG-ONLY strategy and trades the QQQ or QLD (or similar) using the $BPNDX with the 10 and 20 MAs. From 100% cash, go long 50% of your port when the BPNDX crosses above the 10 MA; go long the other 50% of your port when the BPNDX crosses above the 20 MA. Cash out 50% when the BPNDX goes below the 10MA; then cash out the other 50% when the BPNDX goes below the 20 MA. And yes, you might sometimes get out 50% to cash, and then get back in fully 100% invested, as the 10 MA breaks and then retakes. Using this method, you will avoid all major bear market plunges.
ETF site: http://www.etftrends.com/
Disclaimer: These posts are for educational purposes only. If I knew what I was doing, I would be rich by now! Do your own due diligence and consult your licensed financial advisor before making any trade.
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