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Still on SELL.
That weekly MACD cross on the SPX . . . nice. Still, we should be getting a bounce sometime soon.
Main signal (MVI) still on SELL.
Thanks, but I don't see how the Force indicator shows a positive divergence. It looks really weak to me. But the CO on the daily charts has a positive diver at these lows.
Have no idea what will happen. A bounce up to at least retest the 20 day MAs and maybe the 50s could easily happen. Then down we go. I can see that.
gloe
Hi gloe, this post may interest you.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=75523948
Main signal (MVI) still on SELL.
I should add to that: volume is a very useful indicator of trapped traders for S & R levels.
Totally agree. Price is the ultimate indicator.
12 ticks in 1 second at the bottom of a run is a clear stop run and the subsequent reversal made their intentions abundantly clear.
The less quick but still fast ramp to the prior top made 4 attemps up. The subsequent decline was fully anticipated.
All indicators aside there is nothing that beats a good read of Price Action.
4 range is pretty fast/small. And nothing can pick a top in an irrational short covering ramp.
Hi Murray, I always thought GH and VT worked the best. My favorite patterns.
MVI still on SELL. Good TNA buy for a trade against the main signal. Market is oversold and various indicators on 60 min charts are showing bullish divergences with today's test of yesterday's low.
Thought so . . . it's the only thing I see there. I didn't think Woodie ever used it. I learned it from someone who used to be in Woodie's room. He used it on a 5 min chart of RUT futures.
I believe that it is a Slingshot. I don't recall it therefore I believe it to be adopted subsequent to our time in Woodie's room. The slingshot pattern is when the 14 period CCI rejects the zero line and the turbo CCI hooks at around the 100 line. Trigger is the hook of the CCI.
G = Ghost. I see that one. What is an S?
MVI now on SELL. That "caution" Thursday was right on!
Above 60 would have caused one to get whip sawed twice last week: not nice!
CCI 20 on IWM daily has a decent TLB also.
Yeah, we could get a 3 day buy this time.
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The StockCharts.com Market Message
NASDAQ LEADS REST OF MARKET LOWER -- A DEEPER CORRECTION NOW APPEARS LIKELY -- WEAK COMMODITIES ALSO WEIGH ON STOCKS AS BONDS RALLY -- YEN RALLIES AS AUSSIE DOLLAR WEAKENS
By John Murphy
"STOCKS INDEXES WEAKEN ON RISING VOLUME... It looks like traders and investors took the "sell in May" mantra seriously this week. Stocks fell sharply after Friday morning's weak April jobs report was released. The worst performance came in . . . QQQ . . . tumbling 2.5% on Friday on huge trading volume. That's a bad combination. In addition, the QQQ fell well below its 50-day moving average . . . and negated the "island reversal" that formed the previous week (see top circle). That puts the April low in jeopardy. A close below that low would initiate a pattern of "lower highs and lower lows" which is symptomatic of a deeper correction. The next level of potential support would then be the early March low near 63. The QQQ/SPX relative strength ratio (below Chart 1) also shows the QQQ underperforming the S&P 500 over the last month. That shows loss of leaderhip by the technology sector which is another negative development. . . From a sector standpoint, technology was the week's worst sector. . . The three top sectors -- utilities, consumer staples, and healthcare -- are all defensive sectors. That type of defensive rotation is consistent with market weakness."
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Then he goes on to discuss commodities, bonds and currencies, all indicating the "risk-off" trade is on.
TLB on the VIX this week. See it?
The last VTO before this one -- the break below the 50 day MA looked so ominous, yet the market recovered.
RSI 5 above 70. Maybe above 60 to allow for a little bit of wiggle room.
Hi Murray. Maybe persistently low VIX readings = strong bull move.
What is amazing is all the recent VTO buys worked as they should, no one got trapped on them. There haven't been any VTO buys for a long time as the market was too strong. Now the market is showing weakness and increased volatility and there were a multitude of VTO buys. In this respect VTO buys are some what like trying to catch a falling knife but over all they work!
I think that the RSI parameters could be modified to work duing strong bull markets such as we recently experienced but I am currently at a loss to define what one could use as a filter to define a strong bull market.
Unfortunately, as market tops are usually rounded and bottoms are frequently spikes I don't feel that the RSI could be used for shorts.
Yeah, that's what we discussed as a possible filter. Let's see how it turns out.
Gap fill on IWM from the 4/25 gap up. You knew it had to happen. Qs and SPY gap still not completely filled.
My MVI went into "caution" mode yesterday.
People have asked how to "trade around" the main MVI signal and whether there is ever a way to trade against the signal. I do have other tricks up my sleeve. My "sling shot" trade for example had a SELL signal on IWM a few days ago. It triggered at the close on 4/30. It also flashed a SELL at the close on 4/18. (At the time, the MVI had just triggered a BUY signal and I was looking for dips to buy.)
My VIX model has also been on a SELL signal since the sell off last month, but the trick is, it only triggered SELL near the bottom. It didn't catch the top or anything close to it. It is definitely NOT a "next day open" type of signal that changes alot and can catch all the little wiggles.
My SMDI (the smoother signal I talked about) I have decided may not be worth watching. It is too smooth.
I have volunteer commitments and so cannot watch the market all the time. When those commitments end, I can be more attentive to all the little wiggles in the market. The thing is guys, when I post a signal (even the "end of day signals" based on daily charts) I feel responsible that people are following me, and I like to be able to be around all day the next few days to "manage" the trade in public on this board. I don't want anyone to get hurt in their wallets because I posted a signal and then wasn't around to say "the trade isn't working; get out" or "here is where you need to take profits." For those who asked.
gloe
Hi, you're welcome. In general, I would use the main signal to buy dips when the signal is on a BUY like now (sell rallies when it is on a SELL). Right now I am not at home and don't have my charts available.
thanks for the signals gloe. following with interest. do your indicators call for buying this pullback?
I haven't been comparing them long enough to say but it appears equally as good so far. I will continue to monitor both.
I don't see what you're trying to say. Do you think the DI is better?
Still on BUY.
thanks sammy.
The signals have been working well using IWM and its derivatives (leveraged ETFs, futures, etc., even options)
Not so well using the Qs. Why? Because the Qs are currently dominated by one stock: AAPL. And AAPL had a huge strong rally which looks like a parabolic frenzy, and now what looks like a blow off top, followed by relative weakness. Can't trust the Qs. Might as well trade AAPL if you're going to trade the Qs.
Long term signal (MVI) still on BUY.
Previous MVI signals:
BUY APR 12
SELL MAR 29
BUY March 7
SELL Feb 13
BUY 3rd week in Dec. 2011
SELL mid-Dec.
BUY late Nov.
SELL early Nov.
BUY early Oct.
SELL 3rd week Sept.
BUY mid-Aug.
SELL mid-July.
BUY 3rd week June.
SELL early June.
BUY late May.
Some whip in April (Fast sell-buy-sell).
BUY mid March.
SELL 3rd week Feb.
BUY 3rd week Jan.
SELL a few days earlier in Jan.
BUY mid Jan.
SELL late Dec. 2010
BUY mid Nov.
SELL early Nov.
MACD cross was averted!
I am working on a second market direction indictor that is a good guide to determining when to buy dips or sell rallies. It sometimes gives a different signal from the volatility indicator I have been posting about (the long term signal). The volatility indicator is better (faster) at picking bottoms after a hard sell-off than the other smoother market direction indicator. So I'll call one the MVI (market volatility indcator) and the other SMDI (smoothed market direction indicator). I cannot really call the MVI a long term indicator as it does switch around a bit, yet keeps you in strong trends up or down.
As an example of their signals, both went into SELL mode last June, during which one could short rallies, or, (looking at various market structure considerations) hold a short for a while. But then the SMDI went into BUY mode last October, while the MVI chopped around a bit until the BUY signal just before Christmas, when both signals were on BUY and stayed on BUY for awhile. Then the whippier MVI had a SELL in mid-Feb, flipped back to BUY in early March, then another SELL, and finally a flip back to BUY recently. All during this time since last October, the smoother SMDI has been on a BUY.
I haven't decided how I will take into account their differences. One could make a good argument for GO TO CASH when they are on different signals, maybe except for an MVI BUY signal after a significant sell off.
Just thinking out loud.
ah well . . . resistance broken.
Personally, for me, I took my profits on my TNA and QLD. Both IWM and Qs have too much Resistance right ahead for me. IWM the 50 day MA, and the Qs, the 20 day MA.
Long term signal still on BUY.
Yes, the long term signal is still on BUY. Maybe I should call it an intermediate term signal, since there have been times when the signal changed quickly -- but I did list the trade signals going back more than a year so you get the idea.
During long trends, like the move up from last December, the signal can last for months.
hi g, are we on a long term buy still? tia
[T]he rhythm [of the market] always changes and our ongoing job [as traders] is to recognize it on a daily basis and simply react. As I've said before, the finger always points one way -- inward. . . . [A]s with everything in trading, there's no one-size-fits-all answer and every successful trader on this planet has to discover his/her own way. From my hero Don Miller: http://donmillerjournal.blogspot.com/2009/04/wednesday-notes-watch-out.html
A few more favorite quotes:
To whatever degree you haven't accepted the risk, is the same degree to which you will avoid the risk. Trying to avoid something that is unavoidable will have disastrous effects on your ability to trade successfully. ~ Mark Douglas
Becoming a successful [trader] shares a lot with sports: the need for an edge, the absolute requirement for discipline, and Bill Belichick's comment, "more important than the will to win is the will to prepare to win." from rosen.blogspot.com
Mark Douglas: The 5 Fundamental Truths of Trading
1. Anything can happen. 2. You don't need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money. 3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge. 4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another. 5. Every moment in the market is unique.
Some trading Tactics and Set Ups: http://www.hardrightedge.com/tw.htm
The Psychological Risks in Trading http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=10679356
A favorite site: http://www.brettsteenbarger.com/weblog.htm and http://www.minyanville.com/ http://marketstockwatch.blogspot.com/
Great market comments and trade ideas: http://caracommunity.com/main_posts
Market Commentary and Charts: http://xrysos.blogspot.com/
Markets and Trading: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/
Market Wizards collection: http://www.hardrightedge.com/wizard.htm
Charts I like: http://fallondpicks.com/index.htm Winfree: http://tinyurl.com/eduy2 New: http://tinyurl.com/k85ej
Chan: http://tinyurl.com/wzrk Craig's List http://tinyurl.com/tpqoc
Breadth Charts: http://www.etfinvestmentoutlook.com/index.php
Sector Performance at a glance: http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/SPSectors.html
Eco/politics: http://robertreich.blogspot.com/
Free gurus:http://trendythird.blogspot.com/ http://gurutimer.com/index.html http://technitrend.blogspot.com/ http://xtrends.blogspot.com/
Quotetracker Charts Help: http://www.forum.qtusers.com/index.php
Charts: http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ES&p=m5
*New: Daytrading/Journal Blog: http://donmillerjournal.blogspot.com/
*New Essentials of Trading Blog: http://www.theessentialsoftrading.com/Blog/index.php/trading-articles/
*New from Dr. Brett: http://becomeyourowntradingcoach.blogspot.com/ His new book: http://www.amazon.com/Daily-Trading-Coach-Becoming-Psychologist/dp/0470398566/ref=pd_sim_b_2
Machines: http://www.tradingcomputers.com/
Good stuff here: http://slopeofhope.com/ http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showforum=2 here: http://www.philstockworld.com/ and here: http://www.ttheory.com/ http://unbiasedtrading.blogspot.com/ http://www.ubtnb3.blogspot.com/ http://benbittrolff.blogspot.com/ http://www.tradingtheodds.com/
Great blog, now X2: http://ronsen.blogspot.com/ http://sixtybyten.blogspot.com/
CME Holiday Calendar http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/holiday-calendar/
One final great quote: Human potential is the same for all. If you have will power, then you can change anything. ~Dalai Lama
Gloe with Sally Dog (RIP dear Doggie): http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=39881400
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Trading Strategies:
MarketSci Sector Rotation: http://marketsci.wordpress.com/2010/05/18/roundup-fundztrader-sector-rotation-strategy/
Blogs About Trading Strategies: http://en.wordpress.com/tag/trading-strategies/
The 10/20 MA Bullish Percentage Strategy: This is a LONG-ONLY strategy and trades the QQQ or QLD (or similar) using the $BPNDX with the 10 and 20 MAs. From 100% cash, go long 50% of your port when the BPNDX crosses above the 10 MA; go long the other 50% of your port when the BPNDX crosses above the 20 MA. Cash out 50% when the BPNDX goes below the 10MA; then cash out the other 50% when the BPNDX goes below the 20 MA. And yes, you might sometimes get out 50% to cash, and then get back in fully 100% invested, as the 10 MA breaks and then retakes. Using this method, you will avoid all major bear market plunges.
ETF site: http://www.etftrends.com/
Disclaimer: These posts are for educational purposes only. If I knew what I was doing, I would be rich by now! Do your own due diligence and consult your licensed financial advisor before making any trade.
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