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Alan, dual die Woodcrest will not be competitive. They'll choke on the FSB. And I'll guess you won't see them before Q207 at the earliest.
Another oldie but goodie.
Misen
Probably not too much credit - QC is highly likely to be shipping in Q4 of this year for Opterons (feel free to bookmark this!) not sure at what frequency though but 2.66 no longer fits - I reckon 2.4GHz.
Just cruising some of my old, bookmarked posts. Got a chuckle out of this one.
Misen
Re: What got me annoyed in 2006 after hearing about Turion chips rumored to come out was waiting and waiting and waiting and
waiting. And they're still not here.
That has got to be frustrating. I think AMD has lost a lot of customers by overpromising and underdelivering.
Re: I get the feeling that AMD is giving Dell bigger discounts for pushing AMD harder.
This has been my assumption all along.
Re: WRT the X2 5600+ vs E6600 issue in the E520/E521 line - I've
always wondered if that's due to cost or if it's due to other
issues. With the E6600 coming in at parity next week
The E6600 comes in parity with the 6000+. It's actually quite a bit faster than the 5600+. See this review for details.
http://www.xbitlabs.com/articles/cpu/display/dualcore-roundup_8.html
The reason was that AMD had executed quite well for a few years and it can be hard to believe that a company doing well for what seems like eternity (3 years probably is to some of these guys) earns a reputation.
What got me annoyed in 2006 after hearing about Turion chips rumored to come out was waiting and waiting and waiting and
waiting. And they're still not here. Then the socket nonsense.
I've been arguing with a lot of AMD proponents on other trading boards since last summer and had been arguing with them even two weeks ago. Their earnings report has basically silenced proponents. The latest nit is not releasing benchmarks after the CRO talked about huge performance improvements earlier this year.
I get the feeling that AMD is giving Dell bigger discounts for pushing AMD harder. It's not only the advertising (I get regular emails pushing the Dell E521 which is AMD-based over the E520 which is Intel-based). The way that they do the pricing, it's hard to conclude anything else.
WRT the X2 5600+ vs E6600 issue in the E520/E521 line - I've
always wondered if that's due to cost or if it's due to other
issues. With the E6600 coming in at parity next week, I would
like to see that processor offered in the E520. I think that
change would result in Dell selling more E6600 processors.
AMD/Dell has a lock in price/performance at that performance
level at the moment. Overclocking notwithstanding.
I concur.
I was able to shift my bias to short AMD/long INTC in time to profit from the changeover. Always better to swallow your pride
than empty your trading account.
Spaarky, thanks. I think Intel's recovery and effective way they competed with AMD just goes to show how efficient and competent Intel is as a semiconductor company. I've known that for a long time, and have structured my investment accordingly. It was pretty painful as Intel had to work its way through the Prescott design, but with that behind them, it's clear that the driving force behind the company still remains. I think that Intel has the ability to distance themselves from AMD, and that AMD will have to redefine their business model if they want to survive as a company.
By the way, see my post to Maui on the other thread if you want to see my opinion in terms of longer term INTC growth.
As it turned out views from posters like you, Elmer, IMHO, Alan, chipguy, etc. were if anything conservative in light of what has actually happened.
Y'all saw the writing on the wall LONG before most. Well done.
Thanks for your kind words but it was actually pretty obvious. The real question is why didn't the analysts see it as well?
They saw AMD slip every schedule multiple times, just like we did. They saw the paper launches. They saw the lame taskmanager demo in January then nothing since. Yet:
They still believe Barcelona will be out mid year and ramp.
They still believe Barcelona will be 40% faster than Intel's then available Quad core.
They still believe AMD will have 45nm production in 1H'08.
Well most thought barcelona was going to be available in some numbers by this time, it now looks like it may not even be a factor untill 2008. Giving intel the high ground for over 18 months is never a good idea.
> Looks like I was off by 1/2 a year.
But it looks like you nailed the message. Great job!
Thank you. You know, some of the stuff posted on these boards early-mid last year seemed, to me, over the top WRT the crisis looming for AMD. As it turned out views from posters like you, Elmer, IMHO, Alan, chipguy, etc. were if anything conservative in light of what has actually happened. AMD has fallen so far, so fast that it's quite surprising to me. I thought the reversal would be much more drawn out and 'even' for lack of a better term. Y'all saw the writing on the wall LONG before most. Well done.
-=spaark=-
Max Pain $14. Looks like it's going to trade around $14 today.
There must have been a ton of puts all over the market for this
kind of jam.
Conference Call Transcript
http://seekingalpha.com/article/32901?source=d_email&u=71381
wbmw, in spite of Dell's steep Opteron ramp.
...with an HPC model and a 4-way server. That´s about as steep as it gets when it comes to server volumes.
It suggests the other OEMs are moving back to Intel faster than Dell is ramping AMD.
What that suggests is that server buyers bought more INTEL-based servers last quarter.
And yet they are still proclaiming their Intel product lines, too.
Yes, they always have. The difference is they now offer AMD as well.
This is unlike Dell, who is actually touting their AMD products much louder than their Intel products.
The vast majority of Dell´s server sales are INTEL based, just like their advertising. Your perception is seriously flawed here.
This is a huge mistake for them, given that customers are clearly demanding Intel now.
They are not making any mistakes in that regard. They have a comprehensive INTEL server line-up that they advertise accordingly. Customers that "demand INTEL" get it from them as always.
> This is unlike Dell, who is actually touting their AMD products
> much louder than their Intel products. This is a huge mistake
> for them, given that customers are clearly demanding Intel now.
I suspect that Dell is selling a lot of cheap AMD systems. If you want a performance system, you have to go with Intel and XPS and that knocks you into a higher price range. Especially given the dearth of coupons on XPS systems.
Dell's stock is up 15 percent in the last month so I assume that there are some expectations of a good quarter. I've noticed that they have cut back on the discounts this month which is unusual.
I'm looking casually for an E521 X2 5600+ or a Conroe 2.4 Ghz system and coupons are scarce on the E521 right now. Usually they're discounting like mad this time of the year.
The AMD price cut from April 9 hasn't made it into Dell's boxes yet too. When it does come through, I think that the price will be similar to the system I bought a few months ago.
Re: Looks like I was off by 1/2 a year.
But it looks like you nailed the message. Great job!
Re: HP continues to advertise AMD products.
Sure, but if you'll notice, Intel gained a bit of server market share last quarter, in spite of Dell's steep Opteron ramp. It suggests the other OEMs are moving back to Intel faster than Dell is ramping AMD. I thought that would be obvious by now.
Re: IBM has done a big turn and is finally offering a comprehensive AMD server line-up
And yet they are still proclaiming their Intel product lines, too.
http://news.com.com/IBM+plans+new+high-end+Xeon+server/2100-1010_3-6122413.html
This is unlike Dell, who is actually touting their AMD products much louder than their Intel products. This is a huge mistake for them, given that customers are clearly demanding Intel now.
Well this made me laugh:
Then, analysts will ask two key questions: first, where did AMD go wrong? And second, what needs to be done to get the company back on track?
A few months ago I posted:
My prediction: reading the tech press in a year or so one is going to find "probing" _How AMD Went Wrong_ stories, and on the message boards a great deal of consternation among the loyalists.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=13299889
Looks like I was off by 1/2 a year.
-=spaark=-
Intel Winning Processor War, for Now
analysts are bracing for AMD to report on Thursday a net loss of almost $342 million, a dramatic about-face from the $184.5 million profit it posted a year earlier
http://www.pcworld.com/article/id,130726-c,researchreports/article.html
How Can AMD Be Fixed?
http://www.extremetech.com/article2/0,1697,2113522,00.asp
They continue to update their lines. a difference I'm not sure you would understand.
wbmw, Now, HP and IBM seem to have done a big turn, since they are now advertising Intel leadership products
HP continues to advertise AMD products. IBM has done a big turn and is finally offering a comprehensive AMD server line-up (in the rack and blade segment), and they are also advertising that instead of INTEL-only for most of ´06.
while Dell is still selling brown bananas (except now it's AMD brown bananas rather than Intel's).
As already stated, HP and IBM continue to sell AMD stuff, they continue to broaden their AMD line-up, and Dell offers INTEL across every product line. They sell as much INTEL systems as customers will buy from them. What has changed here is that Dell now offers customers some AMD choices in some segments on top of the comprehensive INTEL choices.
My question is, if Dell is following IBM and HP, how far behind do you think are they following; or in other words, how long until they catch up and start advertising Intel based systems...?
Dell has always advertised INTEL systems. The vast majority of systems they advertise are INTEL-based. How many times has that
been posted on the INTEL thread?
Are they just planning to advertise AMD through the Barcelona launch, or will they catch the drift before IBM and HP eat their lunch?
I think you don´t understand, Dell sells INTEL everywhere, even
more than HP and IBM. And they advertise accordingly. What has changed is that they now also advertise some of their AMD systems on top of the INTEL systems.
Dell follows HP in broadening their AMD-based business product line-up, that´s what I said in my first reply to you.
Re: I don´t find it simple at all. I don´t know what you mean by it, and you have been unable to clarify it, or narrow it down.
I will rephrase:
Dell was very late with including an AMD system in their lineup, and as a result, they lost share in 2005 and in H1 2006 against HP and others. When they finally adopted AMD, it was obviously a knee jerk reaction to the analysts and the media, who were praising AMD's product lines in servers, but they should have realized internally that Intel's roadmap was improving. Now, HP and IBM seem to have done a big turn, since they are now advertising Intel leadership products, while Dell is still selling brown bananas (except now it's AMD brown bananas rather than Intel's).
As you said, Dell seems to be following the market leaders (HP and IBM), but they are obviously about a year late to the party. AMD does not have a leadership product, and as Dell pushes AMD products, they open themselves up to even more share losses to IBM and HP. Ironically, if they had done nothing, they would now be well suited to compete by advertising Intel based systems.
My question is, if Dell is following IBM and HP, how far behind do you think are they following; or in other words, how long until they catch up and start advertising Intel based systems...? Are they just planning to advertise AMD through the Barcelona launch, or will they catch the drift before IBM and HP eat their lunch? Maybe in return for staying "loyal" to AMD through Barcelona, Dell will get first dibs on Barcelona products. Wouldn't that be ironic....
wbmw, All I asked was a simple question
I don´t find it simple at all. I don´t know what you mean by it, that´s why I asked, and you have been unable to clarify it, or narrow it down to what you have in mind.
I'll just presume that the answer is exactly what I expect, and that you chose to evade the question for obvious reasons.
That´s pure nonsense. And what answer do you expect? I don´t even know what you mean by the question.
Keith, you seem to be getting way off topic. All I asked was a simple question, and in fact, others seem to know what I was talking about: #msg-18729329.
I'll just presume that the answer is exactly what I expect, and that you chose to evade the question for obvious reasons.
In fact, after you read this, feel free to delete the post and get back to your regularly scheduled programming, as you usually do. The contents are just for your benefit anyway.
wbmw, Not sure, Keith.
I see. That explains it.
He is saying (duh) that how long do you expect dell to lag behind HP.
Re: again, what is your answer to your question "how far behind HP do you expect them to follow"? What sort of answer are you looking for?
Not sure, Keith. You posed the original statement. I was hoping you would know.
wbmw, again, what is your answer to your question "how far behind HP do you expect them to follow"? What sort of answer are you looking for?
Re: Not sure what you mean here.
Me: I have to question the wisdom of Dell's executive staff to constantly place their bets on the loser. Is there money to be made with that, as HP ramps up on Intel systems and takes share from Dell...?
You: they are following the market leader
Me: how far behind HP do you expect them to follow?
Where is the confusion? Why are you confused? How would you like me to rephrase this to reduce your confusion?
wbmw, but how far behind HP do you expect them to follow?
What are the answer choices? What kind of answer are you looking for? What would be your answer? Not sure what you mean here.
Re: they are following the market leader.
How appropriate, but how far behind HP do you expect them to follow?
wbmw, they are following the market leader.
Keith - Maybe not, but it's what they have for the next several months. Such is life. At least it's some improvement.
But of course... I have to question the wisdom of Dell's executive staff to constantly place their bets on the loser.
The loser has to price their chips the cheapest. Dell doesn't
compete on good engineering, style, or customer support.
It competes primarily on low pricing. Seems like the logical
choice.
Keith, the shoe is definitely on the other foot now. AMD should benefit from Dell's fervor, just as Intel benefitted last year.
But of course... I have to question the wisdom of Dell's executive staff to constantly place their bets on the loser. Is there money to be made with that, as HP ramps up on Intel systems and takes share from Dell...?
[middle "C" on the harmonica]
How many updates must a man hand down, before they call him a scam?,
And how may PC's must a whitebox sell, before he runs out of sand?
Yes, 'n' how many times must the bullshit fly,
Before it's for ever banned?
Yes, 'n' how many ears must one man have
Before he can hear people cry?
Yes, and how many times will it take 'till he knows,
That too many people have lied?
The answer, my friend, is blowin' in the wind,
The answer is blowin' in the wind.
Paul, that´s not enough. (eom)
Elmer, it´s just a Dell PR. Pretty standard, no matter where you look. They want to sell that stuff. Just like they wanted to sell
those Paxville servers back then. It´s all great stuff in the world of PR, big numbers everywhere.
The point was really the release of mainstream business Opteron servers from Dell (my comment).
Keith -
This has been discussed on several boards. The benchmarks referred to in this article compare AMD's offerings to an old Intel Paxville system, not to a new C2D design. It is another example of deceitful misrepresentation of AMD performance.
Dell Extends Commitment To Lead Industry In Server Performance Per Watt And Energy Efficient Design
Dell’s PowerEdge 2970 and PowerEdge Energy Smart 2970 will be the first servers from a major systems provider to market with the new Dual Dynamic Power Management feature ready to enable optimized quad-core performance and power management. Both servers are designed to handle multiple generations of AMD OpteronTM processors, providing a seamless upgrade path to quad-core and allowing customers to increase computing capacity, consolidate and deploy virtualized environments without altering their data center infrastructure.
http://www.dell.com/content/topics/global.aspx/corp/pressoffice/en/2007/2007_04_10_rr_000?c=us&l...
Looks like Dell is starting broaden their Opteron line-up to include the business mainstream.
AMD Updates First Quarter Outlook
SUNNYVALE, Calif. -- April 9, 2007 --AMD (NYSE: AMD) today announced it expects to report revenue of approximately $1.225 billion in the quarter ending March 31, 2007. Revenues declined sharply quarter-over-quarter for the Computing Solutions segment, primarily due to lower overall average selling prices and significantly lower unit sales, especially in the resale channel.
AMD plans to restructure its business model to increase operational efficiencies and lower its operating cost structure. AMD will reduce 2007 capital expenditures by approximately $500 million, which the company believes will not materially impact capacity plans for the year. AMD will also significantly reduce discretionary expenses and limit hiring to critical positions. The company will provide more details during its conference call to report first quarter 2007 financial results on April 19.
AMD will report first quarter 2007 financial results after market close on April 19, 2007. AMD will hold a conference call for the financial community at 2:00 p.m. PT to discuss first quarter results. A real-time audio broadcast of the teleconference will be provided at www.amd.com and www.streetevents.com. The webcast will be available for ten days after the conference call.
About AMD
Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD) is a leading global provider of innovative processing solutions in the computing, graphics and consumer electronics markets. AMD is dedicated to driving open innovation, choice and industry growth by delivering superior customer-centric solutions that empower consumers and businesses worldwide. For more information, visit www.amd.com.
Cautionary Statement
This release contains forward-looking statements regarding results of operations for the first quarter of fiscal 2007, a planned reduction in capital expenditures for 2007 and potential actions that the company may take to better align its business model, cost structure, hiring, and capital and discretionary expenditures, which are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements are commonly identified by words such as “would,” “may,” “expects,” “believes,” “plans,” “intends,” “projects,” and other terms with similar meaning. Investors are cautioned that forward-looking statements are based on current beliefs, assumptions and expectations, speak only as of the date of this release and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from current expectations. Risks include the possibility that Intel Corporation’s pricing, marketing and rebating programs, product bundling, standard setting, new product introductions or other activities targeting the company’s business will prevent attainment of the company’s current plans; any inability to realize all of the anticipated benefits of the company’s acquisition of ATI because, among other things, the revenues, cost savings, growth prospects and any other synergies expected from the transaction may not be fully realized or may take longer to realize than expected; additional capital requirements and any inability to raise sufficient capital, on favorable terms or at all; a downturn in the semiconductor industry; unexpected variations in market growth and demand for the company’s products and technologies in light of the product mix that it may have available at any particular time or even a decline in demand; any inability to transition to advanced manufacturing process technologies in a timely and effective way, consistent with planned capital expenditures; any inability to develop, launch and ramp new products and technologies in the volumes and mix required by the market at mature yields and on a timely basis; any inability to maintain the level of investment in research and development and capacity that is required to remain competitive; and any inability to obtain sufficient manufacturing capacity or components to meet demand for its products or the under-utilization of its microprocessor manufacturing facilities. Investors are urged to review in detail the risks and uncertainties in the company’s Securities and Exchange Commission filings, including but not limited to the Annual Report on From 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2006.
AMD and the AMD Arrow logo are trademarks of Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. Other names used are for identification purposes only and may be trademarks of their respective owners.
http://www.amd.com/us-en/Corporate/VirtualPressRoom/0,,51_104_543~116805,00.html
Yet another small bump for 65nm....
Those new Turion skus speak a lot to AMD's progress at 65nm:
Part Name Freq 90nm TDP 65nm TDP
TL-52 1.6GHz 31W ---
TL-56 1.8GHz 33W 31W
TL-58 1.9GHz --- 31W
TL-60 2.0GHz 35W 31W
TL-64 2.2GHz 35W?? 35W
TL-66 2.3GHz --- 35W
TL-66(2.3G) coming in May to combat Santa Rosa
http://forums.vr-zone.com/showthread.php?t=142875
AMD to release Turion 64 X2 TL-66 to fight Santa Rosa in May
Turion 64 X2 (2 x 512KB L2, DDR2-800)
TL-66 : 2.3GHz, 35W TDP
TL-64 : 2.2GHz, 35W TDP
TL-60 : 2.0GHz, 31W TDP
TL-58 : 1.9GHz, 31W TDP
TL-56 : 1.8GHz, 31W TDP
http://www.hkepc.com/bbs/news.php?ti...me=0&endtime=0
Probably not Barcelona, as that is the server version and the quantities are not vast (assuming adequate yields and bin-splits). What it will affect is the consumer roll-out (Athena?) where there need to be a lot more wafer starts.
Does this impace Barcelona deliverables?
It sounds like this will impact someone elses bottom line, at least for the period of time that they are delaying expenses.
mmoy, on cut reductions
They're talking mainly about reduced capital expenses. This can be done simply by delaying delivery and installation of new machines and/or some work items on the conversion of Feb 30.
How do you go about cutting $500 million?
I would thing the only place would be the Fab. Backoff the purchase of new equipment. Don't convert the 200mm fab to 300mm, especially when they already have overcapacity.
How do you go about cutting $500 million?
I've been through the massive layoffs approach and the company
usually incurs huge current quarter costs doing this. And it
isn't great for morale going forward.
Are they going to cut back on R&D so that it takes products longer to bring to market? Well, they desperately need their new architecture out there to beef up their margins so that may be a tough sell.
So my question is how are they going to do the cuts; how soon before cash burn drops and how will it affect time to market of
Barcelona and related products? If there's an AMD delay in Barcelona, it leaves Intel with a bunch of tactical options for this year. Some which might enhance margins without requiring the release of their new products.
My son was complaining about a problem on his X2 4400 system. I asked him if he'd like a new system as I would like something nicer in the office than my Pentium 4 box. I'm guessing that his problem is application-specific but it doesn't occur on the Conroe system. At the moment, the kids prefer Core 2 Duo systems to AMD systems. Our daughter has the Conroe while our son has the X2 4400 which really isn't competitive with the Conroe but much better than what I have in the office.
I just wish that Dell had something competitive in price with the 5600+. Perhaps at the end of the month. No huge hurry. If it was a major problem, I'd just give him my 5600+.
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