AGNC Investment Corp (AGNC)

[bar1080]

None did well in the past year including AGNC. Two or three were way off.

[Lime Time]

Cool. Market is down. Looks good to me. Liking this one but will watch mortgage rates.

[Just1MoreUpTick]

I think so. Price movement is never great but the divy keeps on coming...

Good time to buy AGNC? $17.80.

[Lime Time]

Good time to buy AGNC? $17.80.

[rosemountbomber]

Isn't AMID a Master Limited Partnership with all the hassle of K-1 tax reporting?

[jeffree]

ok then..lets list the reasons its good to be short AGNC...




go ahead...you start-


1.







...jk…

(long 2,000 shares)

[Dallas66]

I hear ya,...I've been in AGNC, NLY, and NRZ for quite some time...will check out these others you mentioned. I got into CIM years back when they were having filing issues and hte pps tanked....that has been a very very happy investment over the years since.

[shotgun]

yeah, Dallas AGNC, NLY, NRZ, UNIT, NNA and AMID are all really good dividend payers...take your pick and be a happy camper

[jeffree]

Could they ever Raise the dividend...

say...back to 20c/mo...

It would create a swift movement in the SP I would think...


hmmm...just thinking aloud...



...jk...

[Dallas66]

this is a nice payng div stock...took a nose dive 4 yrs ago, but now seems to be slowly coming back. Just got into NRZ a week ago...very nice div and the pps is moving up as well.

[blackcat]

Sure-. I have nice positions in all of the family accounts. No complaints.

[mogman]

I am here and just having a good time watching it for now.
Had a good bit of it a while ago and looking at a repurchase.

[jeffree]

Short Interest
9/15/2017
19,777,137


That's the Highest its been for as long as I can remember...
(I like it that way)


And If the current dividend payout were calibrated at 8% annual yield-
well that equates to a SP of $27

justa fyi


...jk...
(anybody here?...anybody hear?)

[jeffree]

New pricing of offering of AGNC Preferred at 7% yield...



to replace 8% Preferred and supply $$$ for more agency mortgage purchases/hedges/etc...




Okeedokee


...jk...

[jeffree]

hmmmm...Current yield 10.24%...

and short interest is again at a "high level"...

7/14/2017 settlement date
10,955,378 shares short
A month and a half ago it was a LOT less...
5/31/2017
6,742,344

The FED is Unlikely to raise interest rates for some time...so


AGNC is a strong buy at this time, imo...


...jk...

[jeffree]

Comparative yields...is an 8% yield enough in these markets...??


ok...What would be the SP of AGNC at 8%...???
IF they raise the monthly dividend back to 20c...???


not too hard to imagine a $30 SP...eh...??!


jmo


...jk...

[Fibanotch]

maybe not

[Calculated risk]

Haha, with a P/E under 5 still? This stock is cheap!

[Knuckboy]

Risky at this price with interest rates rising. If she got in lower, great. Otherwise wait a bit to get in. $16?

[jeffree]

With about 10,000,000 shares Short here...


Dr. Phil just Has to ask...


"How's that workin' for ya"...??!



10.86% yield, monthly dividends, share borrowing costs, and margin too...??!

Why...?!

just asking


(My Mom owns shares)


...jk...

[trendmkr]

Analyst Activity – Maxim Group Lowers Its Price Target On American Capital Agency Corp. to $20.00 https://marketexclusive.com/analyst-activity-maxim-group-lowers-its-price-target-on-american-capital-agency-corp-nasdaqagnc-to-20-00-2/71119/?icd1

[shub]

Us both..Roughly ,i figure that over the years the dropping SP has been compensated for by the distribution...Not what i had in mind when i bought, but better than nothing.

[Dallas66]

yes it is...would love to see it move back up to where it was 5 years ago.

[Just1MoreUpTick]

nice move upward the last few weeks

[GVInvestments]

Nice move up today. Company seems like its going to move up in the right direction.

[bar1080]

Six haircuts in a row <<is>> hard to believe. The latest reduction was quietly announced recently. Declining firms rarely shout such actions. You can see the chart drop around April 28.

I considered buying an mREIT three years ago. After carefully researching the sector's 5-decade-long record of failure I decided to pass. I especially noticed that none of the earliest mREITs are still in business.

[blackcat]

You thought I made it up? FWIW, I waste little time on SA articles. Where there are a very few knowledgeable writers, the majority of them know little and understand less.

[bar1080]

"A Shocking Dividend Cut At American Capital Agency"

•AGNC posts a mediocre Q1 2015.

•The company saw a 7.1% annualized economic return.

•Book value was down $0.21 to $25.53 per share with increased losses in hedges.

•AGNC also lowered the monthly dividend 9%, from $0.22 to $0.20 per share.

•AGNC now yields 11% yield and trades at a 16% discount to book value.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3108446-a-shocking-dividend-cut-at-american-capital-agency

[bar1080]

Hey Blackcat, you're right! "well, they did just cut the divi, from .22 to .20."

[bar1080]

Your chance of beating the S&P 500 Index significantly for an extended period is very slim. CERTAINLY AGNC hasn't done that.

When put to the test most individuals lag the averages HUGELY. That's not due to stock selection, so much, but most investors are in the market at the wrong time and out of the market at the wrong time. THAT'S THE KILLER.

talk with you later... I'm a lawyer and run a company. Still not quite retired.

[blackcat]

Whatever! I'll come check in with you when I retire. For now, your arguments are not relevant to me.

Don't understand why you post here though.

Have a good weekend everyone!

[bar1080]

BTW, wealthy retirees don't want additional income at all! And they certainly don't need it monthly vs quarterly. I plan to die with all of my appreciated investments... good tax planning.

I own a Closed End Fund that just went to a 6% minimum annual payout. How do the do that? Well, if the fund doesn't make 6% (and it won't in a bear markets) they just pay it out of principal. That is, I get paid MY money!

AGNC is just one of a bazillion gimmicky income investments... that most people should avoid.

You could also argue the leverage it uses is another gimmick. Although it's not one of the most leveraged.

[blackcat]

Well, I am an active, full time trader. I do not have any "financial adviser", and I do just fine. My take is that the entire stock market is full of risk. Some areas more, some less. Every stock I own is hand picked and researched. There are no ETFs in any of the accounts. Why would I want to pay someone else fees to do what I can likely do better myself?

I get that you think AGNC is not a worthy stock for you. That's fine. No one will force you to buy it. Just please don't assume that those who do are either "low income retirees" or financially stupid.

[bar1080]

Retiree focused income "products" are becoming loaded with gimmicks. I'd argue that just about anything that pays more than market rate (about 1% to 3% nowadays) is something of a gimmick or at least carries a ton of risk. AGNC and most mREITs are in that group.

Among the worst gimmicks are high yield ETFs where shareholders are mostly getting their own money returned to them... and pay high management fees for the "privilege." Those include some Alpine and Cornerstone ETFs.

They pay double digit yields but the shares fall double digits every year. LOLOL!

[blackcat]

yes, it's been paying monthly for awhile now. I have a mix of monthly, quarterly and semi annual divi payers. I don't agree with your

gimmicks to appeal to lower income retirees

, but that is neither here nor there.

[bar1080]

AGNC's div is now monthly, and no longer quarterly according to this SA article. 0.22 vs .65 . The fact that it paid quarterly was one thing I liked about AGNC. Monthly divs are gimmicks to appeal to lower income retirees. Other than that, I don't think anything changed.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2533025-update-american-capital-agency-announces-major-dividend-change-what-it-means-for-my-thesis

[blackcat]

well, they did just cut the divi, from .22 to .20. That should be good for awhile, and they have made adjustments for rising rates. With their NAV at $25+, if it drops below $20, I will add to the position, assuming they have made no wrong moves.

[Nebuchadnezzar]

yep go figure ;) with that said there is resistance at $22 and if fed starts raising rates this could fall under $20 to maybe $19. will be watching closely for new entry point. nice to see monthly distributions instead of quarterly and any cut in dividend could put pressure on stock.

[Nebuchadnezzar]

it came directly from CEO when interviewed or something in an article by forbes, seeking alpha, business insider the street. argue all you want it was mentioned.

don't worry though, market is topping out even after this false rally today.

ready for a correction when fed raise rates? I AM

[bar1080]

"buying other stocks instead of buying back shares." Sounds like a pennyland trick... announce a share buy to pump the stock and later reveal that they're buying shares in a pal's scam corp.

I doubt a mREIT could own a significant amount of regular corp stock without jeopardizing its status as a qualified Real Estate Investment Trust, which carries some benefits.

I did research that notion and can't find anything to support it.

[blackcat]

meanwhile, this morning our accounts get a nice influx of cash, which is the idea behind owning it.

[Nebuchadnezzar]

forget when I found the link that had article about AGNC buying other stocks instead of buying back shares. look hard enough and you might find it. not worth my time. I know what I read.

[bar1080]

I've owned preferreds, but years ago. They'll get killed in a rising rate environment. In bankruptcy they often don't fare as well as people think they will.

I do own lots of bonds, both corp and muni and they've both done very well, of course with prevailing rates so low. But they will certainly suffer in a time of rising rates and inflation. I remember when the prime rate went to 21% in 1980!

Overall it's hard to beat a simple S&P 500 index fund. That's been the core of my investments since about 1980. And I do have cash in money market funds, not the best place in the past decade.

Getting to be time for bed. GL

[blackcat]

Have you any preferred shares? There are many, many choices. Any sector, and from blue chip to fledgling biotech. The majority pay quarterly, but there are some monthly as well.

[bar1080]

It gets dangerous when investors, especially retirees, own tons of REITs. What other income investments do you have? I'm looking for ideas.

[blackcat]

They'll do ok. Not in any financial difficulty. Stock is well within my risk tolerance. And it does provide a good monthly income, which is why I have it. FWIW, it is the only REIT I do own.

[bar1080]

It takes one hell of a lot of income to make up for a chart like this. And AGNC has done better than some other mREITs.

[blackcat]

Yes. I do ok as an investor/trader. AGNC is 5.8% of the income half of my portfolio.

[bar1080]

Just as long as you understand the risks that come with double-digit mREIT yields, and you hold AGNC as a small element in a quality diversified portfolio.

Most investors would be better off with a bunch of blue chip growth stocks yielding 1-3%. Such stocks have doubled in the past 5 years while also doubling their divs.

mREITS have done just the opposite. It's chilling how poorly mREITs have done over very long periods. Many have failed.

[blackcat]

I own some. Have for awhile and I'm OK with it. They made some adjustments which will help when rates rise, as they will eventually.