AGNC Investment Corp (AGNC)

[bar1080]

Thanks BC, nothing but several flavors of mortgage securities. No stock in other companies. Most IHUBers buy fixed income gimmicks based purely on flashy yield and have no idea where it comes from. Or the risks.

"AGNC actually buys stock in other companies"

[blackcat]

INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO
As of March 31, 2015, the Company's investment portfolio totaled $66.2 billion of agency MBS and TBA securities, comprised of:

$64.0 billion of fixed-rate securities, comprised of:
$25.7 billion d 15-year securities,
$(1.4) billion 15-year net short TBA securities,
$1.2 billion 20-year fixed-rate securities,
$32.2 billion 30-year fixed-rate securities and
$6.3 billion 30-year net long TBA securities;
$0.6 billion of adjustable-rate securities; and
$1.6 billion of collateralized mortgage obligations ("CMOs"), including principal and interest-only strips.

[bar1080]

??? "AGNC actually buys stock in other companies"

What other companies? That would be a change in policy -- possible given the bad years they've had -- but I don't see anything about the other firms they invest in.

[Nebuchadnezzar]

sold for profit months ago. will get in later once fed raises rates

might get in in the high teens like $18.50 or so

but AGNC actually buys stock in other companies so it is pretty safe play even at current level.

thanks for concern.

[bar1080]

Great call from a year ago:

"AGNC is a no brainer..." Yep, the more you use your brain to learn about complex mREITs the riskier they look. If you see them correctly as outrageously leveraged bond funds with costly (and sometimes unaccountable) management then the downside becomes clear."

[bar1080]

ARR, a similar mREIT, just slashed its dividend.

[Just1MoreUpTick]

Great stock to own for right now... just did the same. Over doubled my position this week.

Loving the Monthly dividends. Adding more shares.

[GVInvestments]

Loving the Monthly dividends. Adding more shares.

[Dallas66]

American Capital Agency Corp. Declares Monthly Common Stock Dividend for October 2014

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/american-capital-agency-corp-declares-200100414.html


PR Newswire
American Capital Agency Corp. October 16, 2014 4:01 PM


BETHESDA, Md., Oct. 16, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- American Capital Agency Corp. (AGNC) ("AGNC" or the "Company") announced today that its Board of Directors has declared a cash dividend of $0.22 per common share for October 2014. The dividend is payable on November 7, 2014 to common shareholders of record as of October 31, 2014, with an ex-dividend date of October 29, 2014.

This is the Company's first regular monthly dividend to common shareholders, representing a change in the payment frequency of its common stock dividends from quarterly to monthly. The Company anticipates that the 2014 dividend distributions on its common shares will likely represent ordinary dividend income for shareholders when the final tax characterization of such dividends is determined and reported to shareholders on Form 1099-DIV after the end of the year

[sleepydunn69]

Well I am 44 and AGNC is on my long term buy and hold list. Compound the dividends monthly sounds good to me. IMO this is one of the better dividend plays

[mogman]

For this retiree, a 12+% return on a now monthly basis with more frequent NAVs...... it sure does smooth out the prior nasty bumps in the road. And as Neb said "anything under $26 is a buy". However, $31 per share would be nice Q1 of 2015.

[conix]

SEEKING ALPHA article

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2448005-american-capital-agency-corp-s-dividend-sustainability-analysis-post-q2-2014-earnings-part-2

[Nebuchadnezzar]

taper is one thing but interest rates rise does that not hinder AGNC?

yes the yield is great but that is taxed as ordinary income bc its REIT--sure u know this

however, yes, i think it is cheap under $26 and who knows

[mogman]

Looks as if folks are buying now though. With the 'taper' dissolving, is there anyone that feels an increase in AGNC from 11 to 15% and a stock price around $30 is in the 1-2 year future?

[Nebuchadnezzar]

that's easy---people selling MREITS to buy into "rally"

Dow 17,000--INSANE

i am slowly moving toward cash and other cheaper stocks with nice yields, too many EXPENSIVE stocks now

[noretreat]

Wondering why this issue has hit the skids the last few days...

[Nebuchadnezzar]

so

the economy is false pumped up by Fed and QE

stocks will crash eventually, sooner than later.

market is boring, much less money is made in a boring stock market.

so what if AGNC is down, anything under $26 is a buy

have fun

[mogman]

Hmmmm.. what happened this morning after the opening? Economy down 2.9% and AGNC down :<

[Nebuchadnezzar]

easy money like i said

$$$$$ up a few grand already + divy

thanks

"winning" hahah

[Nebuchadnezzar]

AGNC is a buy under $24 IMO

right now it is a good time to nibble

[MR MUTT]

Tell me, now that this issue has hit the skids, what will the yearly dividend end up being? 13.5%?

Considering other reits have some protection is this still a deal at $22?

[big-yank]

If Congress vaporizes Fannie & Freddie there will be NO government-backed mortgage paper. Right? Won't that put a huge hurt on AGNC, even if interest rates remain low?

[Nebuchadnezzar]

sorry bud, this bottomed at $14 or so in 2009 i am not worried about it now especially after share buybacks and the stock is some $10 cheaper than it was last year.

NO BRAINER


EASY MONEY

[bar1080]

"AGNC is a no brainer..." Yep, the more you use your brain to learn about complex mREITs the riskier they look. If you see them correctly as outrageously leveraged bond funds with costly (and sometimes unaccountable) management then the downside becomes clear.

[Nebuchadnezzar]

There's no way AGNC is going to be liquidated if that's what you're suggesting.

LOL who the hell ever said that????

when stock trade below BOOK, you BUY THEM!!!

hence 11M in volume on friday

AGNC is a no brainer at these levels

[Nebuchadnezzar]

$23 next week and will flip

easy money

[Nebuchadnezzar]

EASY MONEY!!! TODAY!!

once SP 500 and rest of market correct AGNC will back to $25-$28 range, maybe test $30's

investors already positioning themselves for a correction

;)

[bar1080]

AGNC v. S&P 500 for past two years:

[bar1080]

Another unknowable thing: What sort of hedging it's using at any point. You got a link to DD on today's AGNC BV?

In any event "below book value" doesn't mean it's a good buy. Many stocks--good and bad-- often trade at discounts to book for various reasons. AGNC trades at a probable discount mostly because its had a poor track record.

There's no way AGNC is going to be liquidated if that's what you're suggesting.

[Nebuchadnezzar]

it's trading below book

do your DD

been accumulating shares since it fell under $23

have a nice day

[bar1080]

Impossible to know CURRENT BV with highly leveraged mREITs. "i think it was around $23 or $24 last time i checked." Only thing you could have seen was BV at 3-month reporting points published long after the fact and not audited except once a year. With all their leverage, the BV changes in an instant.

Heck, mREIT Chimera (CIM) has been more than a year delinquent in their filings... two years behind, I believe, at one point.

[Nebuchadnezzar]

it's public knowledge and has been talked about a few times lately

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bookvaluepercommon.asp

i think it was around $23 or $24 last time i checked

[bar1080]

How do you know AGNC's book value?

[bar1080]

"Average investor likely has no idea how mortgage REITs operate and what circumstances could cause a material fall in their share prices. As an investor who deals in the MBS markets regularly, I am downright frightened that such a product is being created at a time when so many red flags are apparent."

http://blogs.cfainstitute.org/insideinvesting/2012/10/22/mortgage-reits-does-doubling-the-leverage-make-them-a-good-investment/

[TradeWinds]

yes and excellent relative strength on the down market days speaks for itself. great div also

[Nebuchadnezzar]

AGNC trading below book value!!!!!

adding 1000 shares very soon!!!

[dpsimswm]

Sign Nader's petition for GSE shareholders as soon as you can.

http://www.shareholderrespect.org/take-action/


This is very pertinent to your investment in AGNC. Fannie and Freddie issued $1.57 trillion in MBS last year alone. This represents 73.8% of the market. If the government can nationalize and socialize the entire mortgage market, then they can pretty much do the same thing with any business and any property in the United States.

We need at least 1,000 signatures to be taken seriously.

[NickDz]

I don't think anyone is against diversification; we just aren't allowed to discuss other stocks within the boards.

I think '14 is a good year for real estate in the US and that translates to a good year in REITS and agnc is one of my favorites and I think it's at a great entry point still

[bar1080]

mREITs have performed poorly over past 5 years even counting dividends. An S&P 500 index fund would have done far better. Putting 90% of funds in mREITS isn't very prudent, even if you got out in time. They have a very rocky 50-year history.

Plenty of mREIT buyers, often retirees, had entire portfolios in ultra high yield junk and they were destroyed in 2013. I don't understand what IHUBers have against sensible, diversified investing.

[NickDz]

Maybe not :(

[NickDz]

Head and shoulders bottom?

[big-yank]

I had 90%+ of my portfolio in mReits for about 5 years and exited all of them in late 2012. I made a small fortune from buying and holding while the Seeking Alpha bloggers all said hide under the bed. I really like this sector. But I do not think the downward run is concluded and I think the hit could be huge if the Fed grows a pair under new leadership.

I also fear the impact of the Corker/Warner legislation if it goes forward in this Senate session. It could effectively wipe out most agency-backed paper and permanently remove Fannie & Freddie from the reit landscape.

[alexander77]

All agency mreits have bottomed out and will rise again. AGNC, NLY, CIM, ORC, BMNM. This is the moment to get in mreits and enjoy growing dividends for next +10 years.

[big-yank]

This happens every year with stocks whose S/P took a heavy hit during the prior year. December sees heavy tax loss selling to ameliorate the IRS hit on portfolio gainers, elsewhere. The 31 day "wash rule" prevents a repurchase which equates to a January spike as the former sellers who really like the stock rebuy, in this case largely to harvest the reduced but still meaningful divvy.

Income Funds love mReits.

I think we will need to watch the inflow of $$$ for awhile longer before considering that any recovery is underway. I think a run to $25 is quite unlikely. If you follow the S/P to dividend relationship over a period of years, I think the S/P is likely to settle around $18 or slightly lower.

JMHO.

[GVInvestments]

I agree the stock is looking good now.

[Nebuchadnezzar]

AGNC- $$$ flowin back into stock not out of it

i guess a little DD on stock repurchases is in order ;)

AGNC is going up probably back to $25 level

i could be wrong but I am betting on the stock that I am right + I will get a nice little divy for holding. there is no reason for it to get much cheaper now.

[big-yank]

The share price has plummeted from $36 to $19 and the divvy has collapsed from $5 to $2.60. I admire your strategy for pure chutzpah, but I think maybe you started celebrating New Year's a little early?

This mReit will not bottom until all tapering concludes and the Fed zero-interest policy ends. And even then, I think it will be years before any agency-backed recovery reappears. Remember that Sen. Corker's initiative in winding down Fannie & Freddie will likely see a vote in the Spring Session and has bi-partisan support.

I really think there are safer places in which to be seeking high dividend returns. JMHO.

Good luck to you.

[koen2]

patience is the key here.

[Raphael De La Ghetto]

Just the other day, I saw a large block of March $15 puts go for 9 cents. I think that price target is in the cards.

[Nebuchadnezzar]

ok, just saw that it is $.65 cents per share