123Tom's TA study group

[Citrati]

Me too. I would rather be building a position again instead of waiting for a bottom.
Would like a $6.74 or higher close today.

[Citrati]

Tomorrow is an OEX Friday. Could be really volatile. 45% calls 55% puts is the expiring split.
See how this plays out in market and AVXL.

[Kentucky123]

What a great call. Hope it holds

[sab63090]

FWIW
Tom DeMark Indicators.....I think we've seen both the S&P 500 reach an oversold level (8 count) so a 9 then a 13 would complete (I just use 8 for myself)...also interest rates are recording at least an 8 count (overbought)....so I guess a short term pause is at hand..

[sab63090]

Years ago Gold and Silver were used as a hedge against a down market, Gold has tried to stay above $2000 for a very long time without success...I guess Crypto has attempted to do this?

Also, Bonds were used as a non-correlated asset class and have at times not worked...right now they are working in that higher yields are crushing stocks...notice that "Doctor Copper" normally confirms a bull trend in stocks and it's selling near its lows...not good! (copper normally is a commodity that really hangs on to its trends....so maybe it turns here at a prior low?

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d&t=HG

[Citrati]

AVXL. I am currently watch 6-6.62 zone on weekly. On daily I am watching to see if we have a bottom here. Rising fast MACD and flat standard MACD.
Money is negative (outflows) no matter which indicator you choose. Fast ADX10 is positive. SlowStoch10 has not turned up yet.. Candles are attempting a bottom on the Daily. Price still cannot sustain price above the falling daily 4ema. Ain't going up until the 4ema gives up its pressure.

[Citrati]

Tom, IMO yes metals are being weakened. It may be that that Key countries who own US debt are selling that debt and not rolling it over. This strengthens the $$ and pushes PM's down. Look at a TLT chart. China and Japan and possibly Saudi Arabia are dumping. China and Japan want to strengthen their own currencies to help overcome their economic woes. Saudi's probably following China and Japan however more likely they want to reduce their US$ risk with the added exposure to rising oil prices.

Gold. On a weekly if the rising 50period doesn't hold then the 100period is in play. Currently 1903 and 1862. That is as far as I am looking at present.
Silver. Testing the 50period weekly now 23.23. 100period at 22.64. Silver 200period is at 22.62.

Those are my targets, which if they fail I will reevaluate. How this week ends is important as is next week for confirmation or continuation.

[123tom]

AVXL testing 6.75. Are we looking for possible steps, 6.50 And ... 6.25?
I keep lowering my bids in the docket. I remember in past patterns, when for the longest time... the " bottom" was holding around 10 dollars. Until it dropped into the 9's. Then the next pattern hit the 8's, and then bottoms hit 7's and bottomed at 6.85..... now we're retesting 6.80, and not acting like it wants to hold 6.75. I'm thinking it's looking down more steps.

[123tom]

Markets drop today but so does gold and silver. Are the metals being bled down ? My gold chart is looking at 1800 for a possible target. Silver at 21?

[sab63090]

Luckily, for us, our children and grand kids don't feel that way and are responsible...all of them!

But, I was speaking in general terms of the Gen Z age group...

BTW, as you know I follow the commodity markets although I no longer trade in them: some are in strong moves up adding to inflation, like Oil, Live Cattle, Orange Juice, Sugar.....but some of the old leaders like Lumber, Grains, Metals (especially Copper which has sway on the stock market...often holds trends longer and a strong push up enhances the thought of an an "up market" (Doctor Copper)...all topped out and are hugging the LOWS. The interest rates on 10 20 30 year bonds is not helpful either....oh well, so it goes!

[Kentucky123]

The younger people wish the old people dead.
There is blood in the streets. May be more to come.

[sab63090]

Yes, there is "no order" in the USA now in urban areas; and with all the "freebies" being handed out, like candy, it seems pretty lousy.

A lot of the younger people just feel self entitled, too....not good.

We are most probably very much oversold, but not yet seeing blood in the street...many commodity prices seem to be turning up and putting the Fed continuing to put pressure on rates which is not helpful; they are lost offshore with navigation not working and a hurricane approaching!

Since I am an older person, I want to express my opinion that we do need age restrictions for serving in congress and especially running for President of the USA.

[XenaLives]

The market is broken --- EOM

[Citrati]

At the rate Biden is spending the citizens money, while the debt limit is off, until the coming fight over the budget resumes, plus the needed replacement rollover of US Debt, plus the major holders of previous lower interest US debt like China that are not buying and in fact have been reducing their exposure to US Debt, plus the worlds Central banks buying more gold, plus talk of China and Russia through the Brics creating gold backed currency now looking more and more like realty.
Oh well, I think the picture is pretty clear even without enumerating more of the endless monetary shenanigans foisted off on the public by congress, the Fed and the President.
The handwriting is no longer on the Wall. It is on millions of neon billboards throughout America and the public refuses to do anything about it because of all the handouts being given to them.

Guess I'll go take some meds and calm done. This ain't the America I once knew and lived in.

[Kentucky123]

Bonds in free fall.

[Kentucky123]

Matthew Frailey agrees with 4200. There is no shortage of bears.

[123tom]

I'm keeping one eye on the SPX chart....
4500-4400 , shoulder zone, could it become the Wiley coyote cliff edge some day? The whole stock market seems a bit unreal to me in recent years. I still think it's controlled by the government, maybe not so much by corrupt Wall Street as it used to be, but more by the White hat Military government. We live in changed times. There's a hidden War going on, and within the government, conspiracy theories and conspiracy realities, .... what would the next
" stock market crash" look like in this climate. The nation, in my view, is under Military Occupation now, but they're keeping it quiet and making it look normal. How does one analyze stocks in this matrix ? I'm thinking if we ever do see something that looks like a crash.... it will be fast and will bounce right back up , like March 2020 did.

[Citrati]

Observe and adapt. Great comment. Totally agree on that as a strategy.
4200 $SPX is the current 100period on a weekly chart. Very possible to test close to that.

[sab63090]

Old saying....Copper leads the markets and it is now hitting the 200 Week MA (4 years) which should be support, but is also fighting a down slant line....it might break down which is not so good. Best to wait for a signal....

As far as the general market is concerned, I think that the $SPX might come down to 4160-4200 which would be a normal set back, not a crash...RSI is low now so I keep that in mind...

We just need to observe and adapt until we see how far this goes or reverses course.. my 2 cents

[Citrati]

Here is commentary from another poster on same site. Anyone here want to comment?

Yep, I see the 10-year yield was still rising overnight...now at 4.50%....that should push TBT higher and sink TLT tomorrow if it holds....that long bond yield is popping quite quickly...!

...an expert portfolio manager says there was a very weird bond spike a few days ago and he thinks it could be the smart money dumping bonds.......the most liquid, ultra-safe asset in the world suddenly went illiquid a few days ago...now, he thinks there is a big credit event coming!!! He says the entire US banking sector could collapse if this bond spike is a hint of things to come!!! Yikes....!!!😯

This guy says watch for GOLD as at some point, it will make a big move when bond yields go out of control....he also says watch Utility stocks (XLU as an example) as they are signaling a market crash, just as they did back in 1929.....but US Treasuries may be the credit event, but after a crash, bonds could rally as they always do after a market collapse.... 😮

He also compares the current year to 1987, which is a thesis I have been pointing out too for the past few months ....very interesting!

[Citrati]

Got this from a poster on another site I frequent. Agree or disagree.

https://investorshub.advfn.com/uimage/uploads/2023/9/21/fknraScreen_Shot_2023-09-21_at_9.05.02_PM.png

[Kentucky123]

Thanks for your insight. I have noticed that Americanbulls record is poor. Bear markets can last a long time.

[sab63090]

I agree that American Bulls has a weird analysis and does not conform with TA that most consider...I no longer use very short term time frames 5min/10min, 15min, or 30 min...too busy for my taste, but glad it works for you....I would be even more exhausted than I am now after trading like that when I had super energy in younger years with commodities....what a rush it was...ha ha

[sab63090]

kentucky
That's the ticket....I agree with you totally!
We need not a normal takeoff like a plane, but a space launch from a rocket !!!
I'm better today after some sleep...

:)

[Citrati]

I do not agree with the candlestick identifications from American Bulls for either one. (Daily)
Yes yesterday was a dragonfly doji however today was an inverted hammer for AVXL.
These two candlesticks together denote potential for reversal not yet full speed ahead.
I do agree it needs more confirmation.

So far what I see is there was tentative buy on a 30minute chart at 7.08-7.10 for those who who like to scale into a stock with a potential bottom and they are planning on adding if it continues to drop and retest the low or have a tight mental stop they can sell at. I always use mental stops so the MM's can't catch me in a break of stripping stop prices initiated by their trading bot.

Looking at a Daily
SAVA has a hammer candle yesterday and an inverted hammer today. Again this is not a confirmed buy signal by itself.
What SAVA has going for it is the higher low pattern developing which AVXL does not yet.

Both stocks have some decent indicator support, however the chart position of price in SAVA is much stronger than AVXL.
IMO, SAVA has potential upside to 50 period which is descending. If it can confirm above the brown 50 then the green 100 is in play. Lots of resistance as noted in the longest VbP bar.
AVXL is dealing with a strongly down angled lower bb and negatively stacked 4,8,13ema's before even testing the down angled mid lines. Today it just barely clawed out a close inside that lower bb.

Conclusion IMO, both need more building with SAVA in the stronger position of the two.
My view is though they have potential the feel they give is overly optimistic. If they are that optimistic what are their target prices before taking profits.

Not a financial consultant or anyone authorized to give trading advice. Just my interpretation of the tea leaves of a TA chart.

[Kentucky123]

How high we go is unknown. The sector has been decimated, sentiment is putrid, confusion abounds, blood in the streets and capitulation rotates from one issue to the next. Technically extremely oversold on all time frames. Every swing high has been lower than the last and the lows continue lower. A strong reversal with clear positive news from an unbiased source with unassailable credentials is the only thing I can think of that can stop this bear. JMHO

[Kentucky123]

We do have a buy signal on the candlestick chart.
https://www.americanbulls.com/SignalPage.aspx?lang=en&Ticker=AVXL

As does Sava
https://www.americanbulls.com/SignalPage.aspx?lang=en&Ticker=SAVA
XBI does not.

[Citrati]

I trade more because I day trade from 3 ETF pairs. On any day I can trade the direction and gain a little green. Never thought I would become a daytrader, but I refuse to leave that money in the market overnight or weekends. Also, don't want to give up anything from decay. They reset every day so I do too. It makes life simple for me. Then I have a few big board stocks I will ST swing trade on and off rotationally. Lastly a couple lotto plays.

For the most part I focus on steady profit, liquidity, cash and lowest funds at risk as possible that will accomplish my goals. Also, need to keep it simple so wife can know what to do if I don't wake up tomorrow or can't trade for any length of time. For now it keeps me busy at home while she does her hobbies. Then travel to see some more of this amazing world and visit grandchildren or their parents.

You earned the relaxation and some fun. Good for you.
My first great grandchild is due next month. Looking forward to greeting that beautiful girl.

Green Trading Everyone.

[kevindenver]

Probably more than you bargained for as a response

absolutely not. It was an excellent response and glad to see we are in agreement on the topics.

[sab63090]

Good comments....I'm in the same boat as you with a few years more, but I trade much, much less, not more!
I sleep well, basically because I need to for medical conditions and normally in bed by 8pm or so, unless I am able to get excited about a football game...ha ha

[Citrati]

That reduction IMO is like merging stores, auto dealerships, appliance companies or any other business. Retail customers get screwed again.
Retail is so small of the market flow any and every advantage is consumed by the MM's, Hedgfunds, Dark Pools, Institutions etc. Who as a retail trader can afford level 3 access or pay for programming skills on a level to compete with those big boys when they get all the data and news before we do?
Then you are undoubtedly aware that "SOES bandits" have now become the current HFT's.
I won't even get into the cushy relationship between the FED, SEC etc with the investment industry and banking at the expense (rape) of retail.

My trading has definitely changed over the years based on such issues and then my age. I trade a lot differently at 74 than I did in my 30's.
I use TA far more and trade much more often.

The DTCC, ex-broker systems, Dark Pools and everything else that allows for counterfeit stock is illegal and unfettered. SEC doesn't care. The rule of thumb is "retail trader/investor beware". What happens today with shorting is flat out wrong. (won't go into full blown rant).

Probably more than you bargained for as a response. 🙈🙉🙊

Any other board but Tom's and this would likely be deleted. lol

[sab63090]

Almost 2 years, kevin....order imbalances normally stay in the direction of the move, so I think maybe a fade on a false move....I watch!

[kevindenver]

Has the reduction in the number of individual MM's to todays model of primary market centers changed the way you trade or analyze charts?

I cut my teeth trading assisting the end of the "SOES bandits" era in fractions before the computer took over. LOL

Any thoughts on the level of short interest and IMO very questionable accounting at the DTCC and EX-broker systems allowing for the creation of counterfeit stock?

Going a bit off topic from T/A, but I miss good old office talk somedays.

[kevindenver]

This question is for everyone and for any ticker. It's totally open question for anyone who has opinions on T/A and the way orders are executed in todays automated electronic markets.

Has the execution of large percentages of volume performed on the closing cross impacted the way you read charts?

My answer is: not really for general chart reading, but in my gut I know it should, but I haven't been keeping up with the industry, T/A, and modern markets enough to really know.

[Citrati]

Aw, you mean a 45million share buy day like in Sept only with follow through like Multiple 5-10million+ days or more of buying. That will take major news.
Shorters and bashers don't give in over 1 or 2 days. They need to be ground into dust.
Shorters know how to cost average just like buy traders.
The biggest difference is their profits can be tax free if they never have to buy, because every trade needs two sides to complete the transaction for tax purposes.
Provides great incentive to drive OTC companies and even lower priced NAZDAQ companies out of business or so damaged they never recover.

Without at least strong news it will be very tough to take out Aug, June and Feb highs. Lots of resistance until 9.65.

[kevindenver]

I don't know how long you've been an $AVXL watcher, but whenever I saw order imbalances, something is up...

[kevindenver]

Regarding today's volume and price spike. To me it looks like a trader f'ed up and used a market order thinking there was more supply overhead, but alas there were no mass of shares for sale and a buy side order imbalance went seeking for "next price"... and I bet someone got a scolding on proper order placement in thin markets.

Using Volume At Price the more realistic high was $7.44

[sab63090]

Had we closed at the high today, I would have considered a "potential reversal", but today was a failure....we need a strong push up beyond both the 50 day and 200 day with powerful volume....put me in the non-believer column until proof.....if you voice your opinion that does not go with the AVXL bull camp, you get no love!!! Say it ain't so....lol

[Citrati]

Agreed.
From a Daily I just round off an average of the horizontal candlestick tails and call it 7.60ish for beginning strongest resistance until longest VbP bar zone.
Swing candle theory marks a swing low (SL)candle in blue ellipse and between blue horizontals as a resistance zone from 7.44-7.78.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AVXL&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p64453455113&a=1503629128

PS: XBI got rocked today on 30minute. Huge deviation outside the bands. Both Kchannel and BB's.

Here is AVXL on the 30minute. click on AVXL and put in XBI to see XBI 30minute.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AVXL&p=60&yr=0&mn=0&dy=25&id=p23987043963

[123tom]

So today, price opened holding the support step around 7.07 and crawled up a little , then surged up 75 cents around the noontime hour, only to sell right back down, and crawls around 7.20 for the day. Seems like there is a lot of price surging and selling these days, that makes a mark on the chart but doesn't amount to any real pattern development. My take on this week's price development is a bottom at 6.81.... followed so far by a bounce that has held support, so far, at 7.10 area, right where it needs to, and the spike to 7.90 , is incidental to be dismissed. Support is holding for 2 days at the moment. Where is real resistance to watch... maybe around 7.50 area?

[Citrati]

Those were two big AVXL buys. 264,165 shares in two minutes. 😎

[kevindenver]

P&F chart shows how closely $AVXL has thus far averted a quad bottom fail.

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=avxl,P

Arguably it has failed, but don't tell my fundamental side of my brain which remains bullishly biased on the story and "softer side" of biotech investing paying attention to specifically the anecdotal clues within the Rett Syndrome indication.

[kevindenver]

Yesterday morning in the FB chat I run I made the comment "Besides more company news, a few other things I'm watching for is the stabilization of biotech valuations, using $XBI as a guide. Then shifting gears to T/A, I'm watching for a long tail on today's candle."

I am encouraged by the Dragonfly Doji as possible first signs of reversal if we get upside follow-through of course as you mentioned.

I gotta say, I'm enjoying the discussions in our own little part of iHub away from the noise.

[Citrati]

Tomorrow should prove interesting for AVXL. Daily closed with a dragonfly doji potential bottom.It is not generally considered reliable so confirmation is necessary.
Sellers prevailed first 35 minutes then buyers brought it back. 5minute shows resistance at yesterdays close for the last 4 hours of trading..

[123tom]

I always liked using the Williams indicator.
Price dropped down 2 steps this morning to hit 6.81 and bounced a step back up. I bought a little more here. Will be watching now. We have hit the double bottom on the extreme low now retesting 6.85. How long ago was that first one . It rallied back to 13 , I believe. I used to have about 5 thousand trading shares... sold most in recent wave patterns of the last 3 years. I've rebought about 1500 now. Small trading. If price drops to hit 6.50, maybe I'll buy a few more shares again.

[Citrati]

Yes, I follow XBI as well. It is certainly part of the price problem.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XBI&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p98460024673