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XLF - ascending triangle underconstruction..
Qs - rising wedge pattern formation ?? 34$ as top ?
RIMM looks ready for a next leg up, ....
http://www.grumpstump.com/squidoo/ingenuity-11875.jpg
well..it's still looking strong
Ego can be a good or bad thing...
depends if I have it in check or not.
I've watched your honesty... admirable trait
It's tough being wrong but if we can...
eat it and log it, we can reflect back on it to learn from our mistakes.
...how to establish an idiot condor...
"...one has to own their mistakes...& owning your mistakes sometimes means that you shame yourself..."Jim Cramer just said that on his 1000th show...
...~BAC~ & ~FAS~...
yeah, still have those gaps to deal with...
...it could still bounce. Who knows?!!
VIX is trying to form a falling wedge
I'm willing to wait and find out:)
...you may be right after this afternoons action...markets not as bullish as it looked earlier...its still holding key levels though...
...lets see what this last hour brings...
I wouldn't count on it. We're working on a full moon and the big boy's
know statistically people do dumb reactionary things during it.
On the other hand maybe the last few falling days was it's precursor.
It's hard to ignore the weakness in financials xlf
also nearing the lower 60m Bbands... so who knows
staying short
man,something told me jump on that boat...this TARP news surely messes up the gap down I was expecting...
...combined with the uptick happenings,the whole market may explode...
TARP extended to life insurers. Huge runs coming and big opens. LNC, HIG, GNW to name a few.
VRAZ..yum,yum,yum nice board..boardmarked....em
well well well..time will tell ..
thanks for the highlighting 69'
that would be wonderfull if RIMM could climb some more ...
that would represent a huge Short & huge gains !
...~BAC~ ~RIMM~ ~AZO~...
~AZO~...gap down tomorrow...targeting calls @ 150???
...high probability play...
160 may calls...~AZOEL~ @6.5 x 6.70...should be much cheaper...
160 april calls...AZODL~ @2.50 x 2.60
...red beaming targeting ~RIMM~ for potential leg/n straddle scalp tomorrow or soon...big move coming...quite possibly a continuation of the uptrend...
...~RIMM~ 3-day candle pattern = BEAST.$...
...Day 1...Huge Gap...
...2...Engulfing Bull...
...3...Inside Day on low volume...
...4...???
A: possible double bottom w/out a handle breakout...
or
B: possible failed breakout
...interesting T/A indeed...I'll be watching...
btw,friends thank you again for ~GGP~,appears that they made out like bandits so far...
TUESDAY MORNING EXTREME MARKETS
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Key Market Reports and Commentary for Tuesday
Tuesday, April 7, 2009 8:32 AM
From:
"INO.com Morning" <morning@ino.com>
T U E S D A Y M O R N I N G E X T R E M E M A R K E T S
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KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
7:45 AM ET. Apr 4 ICSC/Goldman Sachs Chain Store Sales
Chain Store Sales Index - WoW (previous +1.1%)
Chain Store Sales Index - YoY (previous -0.2%)
8:55 AM ET. Apr 4 Johnson Redbook Index
MoM % Change (previous +0.2%)
12MonChgPct (previous -1.1%)
2:00 PM ET. Mar FOMC Minutes
3:00 PM ET. Feb Consumer Credit, in dollars (expected -1B; previous 1.76B)
4:30 PM ET. Apr 3 API Oil Industry Report
Crude Stocks (Net Change) (expected +2.3M; previous +3.27M)
Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (expected -700K; previous -451K)
Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (expected -200K; previous +1.77M)
Refinery Runs (expected 82.1%; previous 81.8%)
5:00 PM ET. Apr 4 ABC/Washington Post Consumer Confidence Index (previous –49)
Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via MarketClub (http://www.marketclub.com/)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes
The June NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of last week's rally but remains above the upper boundary of this year's trading range crossing at 1286.50. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the reaction high crossing at 1386.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1229.40 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1327.50. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1386.25. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1269.82. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1229.40. The June NASDAQ 100 was down 17.25 pts. at 1294.75 as of 5:48 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by June NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.
The June S&P 500 index was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of last week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 867.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 793.60 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 847.90. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 867.50. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 816.59. Second support is the 20-
day moving average crossing at 793.60. The June S&P 500 Index was down 10.90 pts. at 819.50 as of 5:50 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the March S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
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June T-bonds were higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Monday's decline but remains below the 20-day moving average crossing at 127-27. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends Monday's decline, March's low crossing at 123-23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 128-09 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 127-27. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 128-09. First support is Monday's low crossing at 126-15. Second support is March's low crossing at 123-23. ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy
May crude oil was lower overnight as it extends Monday's decline and is trading below the 20-day moving average crossing at 50.50. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.26 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews last week's rally, March's high crossing at 54.66 then January's high crossing at 58.31 are the next upside targets. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 53.90. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 54.66. First support is the overnight low crossing at 50.00. Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.26.
May heating oil was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of last week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 129.98 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May resumes last week's rally, March's high crossing at 151.54 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 147.15. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 151.54. First support is Monday's low crossing at 138.57. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 136.68.
May unleaded gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends last week's rally, March's high crossing at 155.46 is the next upside target. Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 134.11 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 151.90. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 155.46. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 143.96. Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 134.11.
May Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it extends last week's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are still possible near-term. If May renews this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 3.390 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.962 would signal that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.839. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.962. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 3.629. Second support is monthly support crossing at 3.390. CURRENCIES
The June Dollar was higher due to short covering overnight as it extends Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 85.66 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted and would signal that the c-wave of an a-b-c correction off March's low is underway. If June renews the decline off last week's high, March's low crossing at 83.15 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 85.66. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 86.61. First support is Monday's low crossing at 84.10. Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.
The June Euro was sharply lower overnight as it extends Monday's decline and is trading below the 20-day moving average crossing at 132.984. Stochastics and the RSI are tuning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last Monday's low crossing at 131.140 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a larger-degree decline during April. If June renews last week's rally, March's high crossing at 137.37 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 135.820. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 137.37. First support is the overnight low crossing at 132.270. Second support is last Monday's low crossing at 131.140.
The June British Pound was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of last week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral hinting that Monday's high might have marked a double top with February's high. If June extends last week's rally, January's high crossing at 1.5300 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4374 would confirm that a double top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1.4962. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.5300. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4515. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4374.
The June Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends Monday's decline and is trading below the 20-day moving average crossing at .8741. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .8741 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a larger-degree decline during April. If June renews last week's rally, March's high crossing at .8980 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at .8908. Second resistance is March's high crossing at .8980. First support is the overnight low crossing at .8724. Second support is last week's low crossing at .8672.
The June Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends Monday's decline and is trading below support marked by the 10-day moving average crossing at 80.41. Despite overnight weakness, stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off last week's low, March's high crossing at 82.09 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.06 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 81.84. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 82.09. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.06. Second support is last week's low crossing at 78.71.
The June Japanese Yen was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of last week's decline but remains below broken support marked by March's low. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2008 rally crossing at .9799 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .10214 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at .10118. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .10214. First support is Monday's low crossing at .9867. Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at .9799.
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PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals
April gold was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline but remains below support marked by March's low crossing at 882.70. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the overnight decline, the 50% retracement level of the October-February rally crossing at 848.70 is the next downside target. Closes above last Wednesday's high crossing at 932.50 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 911.70. Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 932.50. First support is Monday's low crossing at 865.10. Second support is the 50% retracement level crossing at 848.70.
May silver was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-
term. If May extends Monday's decline, March's low crossing at 11.890 is the next downside target. From a broad perspective, May silver needs to close above 13.885 or below 11.890 to confirm a breakout of March's trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 12.937. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.020. First support is the overnight low crossing at 12.045. Second support is March's low crossing at 11.890.
May copper was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline, which tested broken resistance crossing at 192.28. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off December's low, the reaction high crossing at 211.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 180.64 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 203.70. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 211.90. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 187.76. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 180.64. FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food
May coffee posted an inside day with a lower close on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off March's low. The low-
range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 12.021 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.406 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
May cocoa closed sharply lower on Monday and below the 10-day moving average crossing at 26.17 signaling that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 25.15 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends this month's rally, the 87% retracement level of the February-March decline crossing at 28.26 is the next upside target.
May sugar closed lower on Monday and below March's low crossing at 12.42. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends today's decline, the reaction low crossing at 11.81 is the next downside target. Closes above last Thursday's high crossing at 13.20 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.
May cotton closed lower due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidates some of last week's rally but remains above the 50% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 46.72. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month's rally, the 62% retracement level crossing at 48.08 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 44.14 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Complimentary Options Trade Recommendations And Crash Course
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GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains
May corn was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. Overnight strength in the U.S. Dollar along with weakness in the energy complex weighed on corn prices overnight. The low-range close overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, the reaction high crossing at 4.13 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.92 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 4.07 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.13. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.96 1/2. Second support Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.92 3/4.
May wheat was lower due to profit taking overnight as it extends Monday's decline. A stronger U.S. Dollar, which makes wheat less attractive to foreign buyers weighted on prices overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Despite overnight weakness, stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If May extends the rally off last week's low, February's high crossing at 5.89 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.32 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 5.72 3/4. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 5.89 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.34 1/2. Second support is Monday's low crossing at 5.32.
May Kansas City Wheat closed down 4 1/2-cents at 6.03.
May Kansas City Wheat closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of last week's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends last week's rally, the 62% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 6.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.74 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 6.15. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level crossing at 6.25. First support is last Friday's gap crossing at 5.93. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.81 3/4.
May Minneapolis wheat was mostly steady overnight as it consolidates some of last week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month's rally, the 75% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 6.83 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.32 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 6.77 1/2. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level crossing at 6.83 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.38 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.32 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX
May soybeans were mostly steady overnight as it consolidates some of last week's rally. The mid-
range close sets the stage for a steady opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 10.11 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.37 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 10.09. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level crossing at 10.11 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.58. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.37 3/4.
May soybean meal was slightly lower in quiet trading overnight as it consolidates some of its recent gains. The low-range close overnight set the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off last week's low, February's high crossing at 316.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 292.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 310.90. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 316.60. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 295.60. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 292.00.
May soybean oil was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 32.65 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 35.77 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 35.68. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level crossing at 35.77. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 33.90. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 32.65. LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed down $0.55 at $59.72.
April hogs posted an inside day with a lower close on Monday as it consolidates below the 10-day moving average. The low-
range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline, February's low crossing at 56.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.11 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 60.43. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.11. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 59.50. Second support is February's low crossing at 56.90.
May bellies closed up $0.97 at $89.80.
May bellies closed higher on Monday as it extended last week's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally, March's high crossing at 92.60 is the next upside target. Closes below last week's low crossing at 83.05 would open the door for a larger-degree decline this spring. First resistance is today's high crossing at 89.82. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 92.60. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 87.11. Second support is last week's low crossing at 83.05.
April cattle closed up $0.47 at 86.52.
April cattle closed higher on Monday as it extends last week's rally and above March's high crossing at 86.10. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally, February's high crossing at 88.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 84.69 would temper the near-term bullish outlook.
April feeder cattle closed up $0.55 at $95.95.
April Feeder cattle closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off February's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally, February's high crossing at 98.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-
day moving average crossing at 93.25 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. _____________________________________________________________________
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~QQQQ~ looks extremely toppy...(along with the rest of the market)...although,Im seeing signs that big money could still decide to push this market further up...the last two days remind me of a low volume pullback...
...Im using ~XLF~ as sort of a bellweather...everthing is above their 45 degree angles...until we bust those 45's,IMO,we continue to trend up...
morning Tony,Im good...sitting on cash right now just watching...
...patiently waiting for a high probability trade...thanks for the indice charts...everything still looks bullish to me...
...just not bullish enough to buy anything...Id rather let it play out for now...no need to rush or chase...
Good morning e how are you here's a look at the major Indices.
The Weekly Report For April 6th - April 10th, 2009
Monday, April 6, 2009 1:59 AM
http://www.chartadvisor.com/
Chart Advisor= Weekly Market Review
The Weekly Report For April 6th - April 10th, 2009
April 5, 2009- Market Summary
The rally that we have been experiencing since seeing the March lows continued this week, setting new pivot highs in all four major indexes. With all indexes now trading above their 50-day moving averages, it seems that, at least in the short term, we are seeing a stong turnaround in investor sentiment. Now up more than 20% from our lows, we are in a new bull market according to the boiler-plate definition.
All four indexes are still far off of their 200-day moving averages, so from a longer-term perspective the trend is still down. It will be interesting to see what happens as the Dow, Russell 2000 and S&P 500 approach significant resistance in the future. If these indexes manage to break through these influential levels, we may see a further upwards movement towards their moving averages. If not, then the legs may fall off this rally, which could turn out to be a bear market rally. Traders looking to get long in this market may wish to do so, but be ready to take profits as the Dow approaches the 8300 level. Levels to watch for in the S&P and Russell are 875 and 475, respectively. (To learn more about levels of resistance, be sure to check out the Support And Resistance section or our Technical Analysis Tutorial.)
The Nasdaq 100 had a great rally this week, gapping up sharply through a significant resistance level. Nasdaq traders may wish to continue their long positions up towards the 200-day moving average.
Join me in Investopedia's FREE Stock Picking Community. Check out what other traders are watching and post your own takes on where you think your favorite stocks are headed. Click here to learn more!
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Have a Great Day!
Ayton MacEachern
Analyst, ChartAdvisor.com
ChartAdvisor is not a registered Investment Adviser or a Broker/Dealer. The trading of securities may not be suitable for all potential users of the Service. You should be aware of the risks inherent in the stock market. Past performance does not guarantee or imply future success. You cannot assume that profits or gains will be realized. The purchase of securities discussed by the Service may result in the loss of some or all of any investment made. We recommend that you consult a stockbroker or financial advisor before buying or selling securities, or making any investment decisions. You assume the entire cost and risk of any investing and/or trading you choose to undertake.
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welcome prado,
its a slow board but there are some good picks from time to time...Im going to turn it up here soon...
Great board here 6979. Looking forward to hanging out here from time to time.
Glad I'm loaded on LNC.
Lincoln Financial Group Pays $500 Million Debt Maturity
Tuesday April 7, 2009, 8:41 am EDT
Also Plans To Repay $200 Million of Commercial Paper As it Matures
PHILADELPHIA, April 7 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Lincoln Financial Group (NYSE: LNC - News) today announced that it has repaid a $500 million debt maturity and plans to repay $200 million of commercial paper as it matures over the next several weeks. The source of funds for the debt repayment includes a $400 million ordinary cash dividend from The Lincoln National Life Insurance Company and a $300 million dividend from the company's principal reinsurance subsidiary.
(Logo: http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20050830/LFLOGO )
After these actions, short-term debt at the holding company will be reduced to approximately $450 million, a level at or below prior years. Lincoln expects to meet the holding company's ongoing cash needs with a combination of commercial paper as available and a contractual inter-company borrowing facility of up to $1 billion. The company also has access to $1 billion in bank credit lines, none of which are currently drawn. The company expects available holding company borrowing sources, combined with savings from the previously announced dividend cuts, will satisfy reduced holding company cash requirements for the foreseeable future.
Dennis R. Glass, Lincoln's President and Chief Executive Officer, said, "We continue to prudently and actively manage our liquidity and capital positions. With the repayment of this $500 million in maturing debt and planned repayment of $200 million in commercial paper, we are reducing leverage and significantly improving our financial flexibility at the holding company. The combination of strengthened holding company liquidity and well-capitalized insurance subsidiaries positions Lincoln to move forward in a difficult environment."
The company has also taken steps to protect and build capital at the insurance company subsidiaries. These actions include a recent reinsurance transaction that provided approximately $240 million of statutory capital for Lincoln's primary insurance subsidiary and an enterprise-wide restructuring program that is expected to generate $250 million in annual run-rate savings before taxes. Further actions, including reinsurance transactions, securitizations, and possible asset sales, will be focused on continuing to strengthen Lincoln's already well-capitalized insurance businesses.
Lincoln Financial Group is the marketing name for Lincoln National Corporation (NYSE: LNC - News) and its affiliates. With headquarters in the Philadelphia region, the companies of Lincoln Financial Group had assets under management of $178 billion as of December 31, 2008. Through its affiliated companies, Lincoln Financial Group offers: annuities; life, group life and disability insurance; 401(k) and 403(b) plans; savings plans; mutual funds; managed accounts; institutional investments; and comprehensive financial planning and advisory services. Affiliates also include: Delaware Investments, the marketing name for Delaware Management Holdings, Inc. and its subsidiaries; and Lincoln UK. For more information, including a copy of our most recent SEC reports containing our balance sheets, please visit www.LincolnFinancial.com.
VBDG update ~~> New 2 minute VBDG video:
http://irgnews.com/coi/VBDG
From video --> "Just to give you an example, Bed Bath & Beyond has 930 stores. From Thanksgiving Day for the next 3 weekends they sold 160,000 of these pieces. It was a million dollar a week unit."
Two additional VBDG products not yet announced that I found in this presentation:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=35901135
Tool Band-it Infomercial:
https://www.toolbandit.com/flare/next
VBDG board:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=10478
JetBlue Airways Corporation (nasdaq: JBLU) Stock Symbol:Company Profile:
http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/quote.htm?ticker=JBLU
Knobias MEMBERS get: Quotes | Charts | Technical Analysis | Quick Profiles | EDGAR Filings | News & Alerts | TearSheet Profiles | Historical Statistics | Insider Transactions | Institutional Holdings | ...and Much More
http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/quote.htm?ticker=JBLU
Last Trade: 4.290 Change: -0.120 ( -2.721 %)
Previous Close: 4.410 Today's Open: 4.260
# of Trades: 602 Volume: 135,699
Avg. # of Trades: 25,436 Avg. Daily Volume: 6,198,845
Bid: 4.270 Bid Size: 1,200
Ask: 4.290 Ask Size: 1,600
Day High: 4.290 Day Low: 4.210
52 Week High: 7.740 52 Week Low: 2.810
Market Cap: 1.17B Dividend: N/A
EPS: N/A P/E Ratio: N/A
6 Month Chart
RAiDAR alerts Learn More About RAiDAR-LT
04/03/2009 (15:53 ET) JBLU: Argus Cuts to Hold from Buy; Analyst Notes - Knobias
04/03/2009 (14:54 ET) JetBlue Airways & Aer Lingus Celebrate Partnership's First Anniversary - PR Newswire
04/02/2009 (07:00 ET) For Today Only: JetBlue Non-Stop Flights Between San Francisco and New York or Los Angeles on Sale for $14(a) Each Way, Less Than Other Airlines Charge for a Single Checked Bag - PR Newswire
04/01/2009 (06:57 ET) JetBlue launches JetBlue Features films on flights to the Caribbean and Latin America - M2 Communications - Airline Industry Information
03/31/2009 (12:30 ET) Now Playing at a Seatback TV Near You: Free 'JetBlue Features' Movies on Caribbean and Latin American Flights - PR Newswire
03/31/2009 (11:44 ET) Stockwire.com: JetBlue Airways (Nasdaq: JBLU) just released some important news. - M2 Communications
03/31/2009 (06:04 ET) JetBlue Airways launches Spring Sale on fares - M2 Communications - Airline Industry Information
03/30/2009 (11:59 ET) JetBlue Airways Celebrates Spring with a Seasonal Sale: Fares Start at $39 (a) - PR Newswire
03/27/2009 (07:18 ET) JetBlue Airways launches Orlando-San Jose service - M2 Communications - Airline Industry Information
03/26/2009 (14:00 ET) Award-Winning Value Airline JetBlue Airways Begins Daily Nonstop Service from Orlando, Florida to San Jose, Costa Rica - PR Newswire
03/24/2009 (16:18 ET) JBLU: Short Interest DN 24.9% to 13.3M in Mid Mar 2009 - Knobias
03/23/2009 (16:22 ET) JBLU: Jumps +6.70%; Vol +64%; Last 90 Min of Trading - Knobias
03/19/2009 (12:00 ET) Book It to the West Coast, Boston! Make Two Trips on JetBlue Airways and Get a Third Ride Free - PR Newswire
03/18/2009 (16:46 ET) JBLU: New Form 4 Filed, Change in Beneficial Ownership - Edgar
03/17/2009 (21:04 ET) JetBlue Airways Corporation (JBLU) Corporate Event Announcement Notice - Wall Street Horizon
03/17/2009 (16:22 ET) JBLU: Jumps +4.01%; Vol +53%; Last 90 Min of Trading - Knobias
03/17/2009 (13:04 ET) JetBlue Airways reports expansion of Promise Program - M2 Communications - Airline Industry Information
03/17/2009 (09:00 ET) JetBlue Expands Promise Program to Include Getaways Vacation Packages - PR Newswire
03/16/2009 (20:52 ET) JetBlue Airways Corporation (JBLU) Corporate Event Announcement Notice - Wall Street Horizon
03/16/2009 (16:22 ET) JBLU: Drops -7.11%; Vol +87%; Last 90 Min of Trading - Knobias
03/12/2009 (07:14 ET) JetBlue Airways to fly from Boston to Santo Domingo - M2 Communications - Airline Industry Information
03/11/2009 (16:14 ET) Markets End With Slight Gain; Oil Continues Lower - Knobias
03/11/2009 (16:01 ET) Knobias Sector Commentary - Knobias
03/11/2009 (12:10 ET) JBLU: Volume Spike; 21% > 20-adsv, Stock +11.59% - Knobias
03/11/2009 (11:55 ET) OTC Select Announces Morning Nasdaq Stock Watch - World Stock Wire
company profile
The Company is an innovative, low cost passenger airlines, which provides customer service on point-to-point routes & offers its customers generous legroom, free in-flight entertainment, pre-assigned seating, unlimited snacks & reliable performance. ... MORE INFO
CONTACT: David Barger (CEO)
JetBlue Airways Corporation
29 Queens Boulevard
Suite 118
Forest Hills, NY 11375
P: (718) 286-7900
P: (203) 656-7651
F: (718) 709-3621
Company Home Page | Email
Industry: Transportation
SIC: 4512
Employees: 8,902
Locations: 4
State of Inc: DELAWARE 1998
Development Stage? N Transfer Agent:
Computershare Investor Services
Golden, CO 80401
Investor Relations:
Company Authorized Shares: 500,000,000
Source: 10-K ( 02/11/2004 )
Outstanding Shares: 271,814,559
Source: MGFS ( 01/31/2009 )
Fiscal Year End: December 31
MANAGEMENT & INSIDERS:
Need More Stock Research? Subscribe NOW!!!
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Good morning and thank you most kindly 6079.
Lincoln National Corporation (nyse: LNC) Stock Symbol:Company Profile:
http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/quote.htm?ticker=LNC
Knobias MEMBERS get: Quotes | Charts | Technical Analysis | Quick Profiles | EDGAR Filings | News & Alerts | TearSheet Profiles | Historical Statistics | Insider Transactions | Institutional Holdings | ...and Much More
http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/quote.htm?ticker=LNC
Last Trade: 6.900 Change: 0.000 ( +0.000 %)
Previous Close: 6.900 Today's Open: 6.300
# of Trades: N/A Volume: 0
Avg. # of Trades: 64,256 Avg. Daily Volume: 15,489,175
Bid: 6.270 Bid Size: 100
Ask: 6.410 Ask Size: 100
Day High: 6.900 Day Low: 6.900
52 Week High: 59.990 52 Week Low: 4.760
Market Cap: 1.77B Dividend: N/A
EPS: N/A P/E Ratio: N/A
6 Month Chart
RAiDAR alerts Learn More About RAiDAR-LT
04/06/2009 (07:00 ET) LNC: Goes Ex-Dividend Tuesday, Apr 07; $0.01/Shr - Knobias
04/06/2009 (06:57 ET) LNC: mentioned in latest Barron's Publication - Knobias
04/06/2009 (06:57 ET) LNC: mentioned in latest Barron's Publication - Knobias
04/06/2009 (06:45 ET) LNC: mentioned in today's Wall Street Journal - Knobias
04/06/2009 (06:45 ET) LNC: mentioned in today's Wall Street Journal - Knobias
04/06/2009 (06:05 ET) LNC: mentioned in today's Wall Street Journal - Knobias
04/04/2009 (07:00 ET) LNC: $0.01 Cash Dividend; Approaching Record Date - Knobias
04/03/2009 (21:02 ET) Lincoln National Corporation (LNC) Corporate Event Announcement Notice - Wall Street Horizon
04/03/2009 (14:07 ET) Delaware Investments Funds Receive Recognition at 2009 Lipper Awards - PR Newswire
04/03/2009 (06:56 ET) LNC: mentioned in today's Wall Street Journal - Knobias
04/02/2009 (21:04 ET) Lincoln National Corporation (LNC) Corporate Event Announcement Notice - Wall Street Horizon
04/02/2009 (16:40 ET) Lincoln National Seeks Growth in Life/Long-Term Care 'Combo' Product - A.M. Best
04/02/2009 (16:13 ET) Markets Rally on Relaxed Mark-to-Market Rules; Traders Position for Jobs Data - Knobias
04/02/2009 (16:04 ET) Knobias Sector Commentary - Knobias
04/02/2009 (14:46 ET) SmarTrend(R) News Watch: Analyst Downgrades & Negative Comments - Mid-day Update - Comtex SmarTrend Morning Call
04/02/2009 (13:53 ET) LNC: New Form 4 Filed, Change in Beneficial Ownership - Edgar
04/02/2009 (11:49 ET) LNC: New Form 4 Filed, Change in Beneficial Ownership - Edgar
04/02/2009 (11:47 ET) LNC: New Form 4 Filed, Change in Beneficial Ownership - Edgar
04/02/2009 (11:46 ET) LNC: New Form 4 Filed, Change in Beneficial Ownership - Edgar
04/02/2009 (11:39 ET) LNC: New Form 4 Filed, Change in Beneficial Ownership - Edgar
04/02/2009 (11:29 ET) LNC: New Form 4 Filed, Change in Beneficial Ownership - Edgar
04/02/2009 (10:47 ET) LNC: New Form 4 Filed, Change in Beneficial Ownership - Edgar
04/02/2009 (10:41 ET) LNC: New Form 4 Filed, Change in Beneficial Ownership - Edgar
04/02/2009 (10:40 ET) LNC: New Form 4 Filed, Change in Beneficial Ownership - Edgar
04/02/2009 (10:31 ET) LNC: New Form 4 Filed, Change in Beneficial Ownership - Edgar
company profile
A holding company and its subsidiaries operate multiple insurance and investment management businesses through six business segments and sell wealth protection, accumulation and retirement income products. ... MORE INFO
CONTACT: Dennis R. Glass (CEO)
Lincoln National Corporation
150 N. Radnor Chester Road
Suite A305
Radnor, PA 19087
P: (484) 583-1400
P: (877) 275-5462
F: (484) 583-3962
Company Home Page | Email
Industry: Insurance
SIC: 6311
Employees: 9,696
Locations: 5
State of Inc: INDIANA 1968
Development Stage? N Transfer Agent:
BNY Mellon Shareholder Services
Pittsburgh, PA 15252
Investor Relations:
Company Authorized Shares: 800,000,000
Source: 10-Q ( 08/08/2003 )
Outstanding Shares: 256,042,499
Source: MGFS ( 02/20/2009 )
Fiscal Year End: December 31
MANAGEMENT & INSIDERS:
Need More Stock Research? Subscribe NOW!!!
http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/quote.htm?ticker=LNC
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good morning Tony,they are declaring an ex-dividend date of april 7th(tomorrow)...that means in order to receive the .01 dividend,one must purchase the ~LNC~ shares before that date...
the dividend will actually be paid on may 1st...the ex-dividend date declared is simply a way for the company to determine which shareholders get the dividend...all share-holders that buy in tomorrow or later,will not get the dividend...
hope that helps you...chart looks decent...
Symbol LNC: Goes Ex-Dividend Tuesday, Apr 07; $0.01/Shr
Monday , April 06, 2009 07:00ET
http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/quote.htm?ticker=LNC
http://www.knobias.com/story.htm?eid=3.1.7a0a087e4e8e1721071ddb4ad8a54ebdf97146073882747d049c44ddb1cc031a
According to the NYSE Corp Action List, Lincoln National Corporation (NYSE: LNC) are expected to go ex-dividend on April 07, 2009. This $0.01 cash dividend was originally declared on February 24, 2009.
DECL-DATE X-DATE REC-DATE PAY-DATE
----------- ----------- ----------- -----------
02/24/2009 04/07/2009 04/09/2009 05/01/2009
AMOUNT: $0.01 cash (USD)
FREQUENCY: QUARTERLY (based on history)
CHANGE: DECREASE in regular dividend
Knobias may issue additional reminder alerts to track the important dates surrounding this corporate action.
Public Companies Associated with this story:
LNC
Knobias Subject Codes Associated with this story:
Important Co. News Shareholder Issues Stock Dividend
Content transmitted by Knobias.com Copyright © 2009 Visit Knobias.com
http://www.knobias.com/story.htm?eid=3.1.7a0a087e4e8e1721071ddb4ad8a54ebdf97146073882747d049c44ddb1cc031a
http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/quote.htm?ticker=LNC
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Data and information is provided for informational purposes only, and is not intended for trading purposes. Neither Knobias.Com, LLC, nor any of its data or content providers shall be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. By accessing the Knobias.Com website(s), a user agrees not to redistribute the information found therein. Knobias.Com, LLC is not a registered broker-dealer and does not endorse or recommend any securities listed herein or any services of any brokerage company.
Good morning e please explain what this means on LNC, thanks.
LNC: Goes Ex-Dividend Tuesday, Apr 07; $0.01/Shr
Monday , April 06, 2009 07:00ET
http://www.knobias.com/story.htm?eid=3.1.7a0a087e4e8e1721071ddb4ad8a54ebdf97146073882747d049c44ddb1cc031a
According to the NYSE Corp Action List, Lincoln National Corporation (NYSE: LNC) are expected to go ex-dividend on April 07, 2009. This $0.01 cash dividend was originally declared on February 24, 2009.
DECL-DATE X-DATE REC-DATE PAY-DATE
----------- ----------- ----------- -----------
02/24/2009 04/07/2009 04/09/2009 05/01/2009
AMOUNT: $0.01 cash (USD)
FREQUENCY: QUARTERLY (based on history)
CHANGE: DECREASE in regular dividend
Knobias may issue additional reminder alerts to track the important dates surrounding this corporate action.
Public Companies Associated with this story:
LNC
Knobias Subject Codes Associated with this story:
Important Co. News Shareholder Issues Stock Dividend
Content transmitted by Knobias.com Copyright © 2009 Visit Knobias.com
http://www.knobias.com/story.htm?eid=3.1.7a0a087e4e8e1721071ddb4ad8a54ebdf97146073882747d049c44ddb1cc031a
ABOUT | PARTNERS | ADVERTISING INFO | CONTACT US | COPYRIGHT | PRIVACY | LEGAL | DISCLAIMER
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Data and information is provided for informational purposes only, and is not intended for trading purposes. Neither Knobias.Com, LLC, nor any of its data or content providers shall be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. By accessing the Knobias.Com website(s), a user agrees not to redistribute the information found therein. Knobias.Com, LLC is not a registered broker-dealer and does not endorse or recommend any securities listed herein or any services of any brokerage company.
...surrender to ~FAZ~...cash for now...
...plenty of fish in the sea...plenty of time...
...market getting interesting...
...~XLF~ staged a breakout friday,suggesting higher prices...
...may get a round two ~AZO~ put opportunity...puts on target again with the help of a few more up days...
...trying to catch a falling knife is exactly what not to do...
closed the options yesterday atleast...
...Im hoping that ~XLF~ doesnt break out from current levels...
...add 9 ~FAYDD~ @ 5.70 total of 11 now...
current position:
300 ~FAZ~ @ 19.45
11 ~FAYDD~ ave@5.507
Initial Basis = $11,885...
...I smell a beautiful gap-n-trap today...
...I'm hoping to close @ LOD with ~XLF~ leading the way...
...someones going to get suckered today...LOL,(may be me)
...looking for ~XLF~ to test/break it's 45 angle...admittedly,there is very strong possibility of support here above the 45...time will tell it...gl
...a lesson in greed...
~FAZ~...position summary...
~FAZ~ 19.45-24.64 = +26.68% - still open
~FAYDD~ 4.60-7.20 = +56.52% - still open
...some may view my action(or inaction) to sell ~FAZ~ as greedy...they are probably right...my main reason for holding is the multiple weaknesses that I see on the daily ~XLF~...as long as ~XLF~'s stochastics are going down,I'll most likely continue holding...IMO,there seems to be plenty of room left on the downside...tomorrow could possibly birth a huge rally...that is the risk that I am willing to take with respect for stochastics...
...I have my target set @ 35,which is subject to change...we all know how animalistic ~FAZ~ is...
...interesting...~$VBX~ $ ~$XII~
Maybe the possible irregular wave count took place in this 4 (Nov-Jan) I have no idea if this ewave count is correct...
but the recent wave 4 breach of wave 1 doesn't sit well with me and shouldn't be ignored.
If we look back at wave 4 (Nov-Jan)...
...I have a hard time counting and trading 4's but when something is clearly violated we must look back.
Can you count 4's... could this be correct?
Live #msg-36658668 VIX is also trying to breakout of the falling trend line and now has a huge gap under we can all mull over.
Could be a whopper of a 3of5 coming. I guess time will tell.
6mo VIX
~FAYDD~'s up nicely today(19 days to decide)...debating whether or not to sell shares @ 27-28...
...watching keno yesterday...44 was a hot #...it may take a strong stomach to hold ~FAZ~ that long...haven't decided...
...NYSE keeps shutting down today (per IB) then coming back online...could get ugly fast this week...waiting for volume to kick in...
in ~FAZ~ 300 @ 19.45 for the potential scalp/swing...
~FSYS~...interesting
watcher....looks like possible wave 4 rally unfolding...
~AZO~ ...when Technical Analysis Strategies CLASH...
After some Elliott analysis,we may witness a climatic top coming,which could send ~AZO~ much higher...
Pitchfork,stochastics,& trendline analysis reveals a different story(on multiple time frames)...this analysis has me currently targeting puts...cautiously of course...
~AZO~ appears to be running out of gas...I especially like the low volume tell in the last two sizable up days...
haven't decided which puts or how heavy to position,but wanted a copy of the put prices as of this day...
PUT OPTIONS Expire at close Fri, Apr 17, 2009
Strike Symbol Last Chg /Bid Ask/ Vol Open Int
120.00 AZOPD 0.25 0.10 /0.20 0.35/ 18 545
125.00 AZOPE 0.25 0.23 /0.25 0.40/ 130 774
130.00 AZOPF 0.50 0.05 /0.40 0.55/ 67 1,478
135.00 AZOPG 0.64 0.34 /0.65 0.75/ 52 2,543
140.00 AZOPH 0.90 0.13 /0.85 0.90/ 192 3,831
145.00 AZOPI 1.25 0.25 /1.20 1.30/ 939 2,709
150.00 AZOPJ 1.74 0.46 /1.75 1.85/ 2,181 2,416
155.00 AZOPK 2.56 0.74 /2.55 2.65/ 1,421 2,682
160.00 AZOPL 3.80 1.00 /3.70 3.90/ 944 1,290
165.00 AZOPM 5.50 1.90 /5.40 5.70/ 328 251
170.00 AZOPY 8.10 4.30 /7.80 8.10/ 19 64
PUT OPTIONS Expire at close Fri, May 15, 2009
Strike Symbol Last Chg /Bid Ask/ Vol Open Int
135.00 AZOQG.X 1.80 0.70 /1.70 1.85/ 7 52
140.00 AZOQH.X 2.34 0.66 /2.30 2.40/ 26 45
145.00 AZOQI.X 3.10 0.60 /3.00 3.20/ 10 117
150.00 AZOQJ.X 4.00 1.00 /3.90 4.10/ 135 134
155.00 AZOQK.X 5.30 1.30 /5.10 5.40/ 125 24
160.00 AZOQL.X 6.94 1.66 /6.70 6.90/ 22 115
165.00 AZOQM.X 8.70 2.39 /8.60 8.90/ 47 16
170.00 AZOQY.X 11.05 4.55/ 11.00 11.30/ 73 10
PUT OPTIONS Expire at close Fri, Jun 19, 2009
Strike Symbol Last Chg /Bid Ask/ Vol Open Int
120.00 AZORD.X 1.92 0.63 /1.80 2.00/ 27 903
125.00 AZORE.X 2.45 0.33 /2.30 2.45/ 1 1,781
130.00 AZORF.X 3.05 0.55 /2.90 3.10/ 2 1,000
135.00 AZORG.X 5.00 0.00 /3.60 3.90/ 11 4,305
140.00 AZORH.X 4.60 0.70 /4.50 4.70/ 23 1,151
145.00 AZORI.X 6.90 0.00 /5.50 5.80/ 45 655
150.00 AZORJ.X 7.20 0.80 /6.80 7.10/ 4 323
155.00 AZORK.X 11.12 0.00 /8.30 8.60/ 6 302
160.00 AZORL.X 10.20 1.90 /10.10 10.40/ 8 268
165.00 AZORM.X 12.70 3.40 /12.10 12.50/ 9 1,374
170.00 AZORY.X 14.80 3.20 /14.50 14.90/ 66 78
~TBT~ & ~PST~ (treasury shorts)
...manipulated...
u great 69' thankz
~GIS~ is hard to read...I like the way stochastics cooled off on the last dip and is going up slower during this advance...suggesting more gains to come...
interesting stock...it has alot of room to move up...as well as some room to go down...I would hope that the huge volume spikes at bottom may possibly be climatic...gl
Get Ready for Credit Card Hell
By Morgan Housel
March 18, 2009
http://www.fool.com/investing/value/2009/03/18/get-ready-for-credit-card-hell.aspx
So, the shadow banking system is blown to smithereens, mortgages have been gutted, and the credit default swap market is up in smoke. What's left to purge out of the financials system?
Easy. Credit cards.
And by purge, I really mean purge. Credit card companies aren't just sitting back and absorbing losses, but frantically slashing existing credit lines in a last-ditch effort to take the risk off their balance sheets.
Meredith Whitney -- who in December predicted existing credit lines would be cut by $2 trillion, or 45% of the total -- has already upped her estimate to $2.7 trillion. That essentially means 60% of all credit card lines could evaporate by the end of 2010. Bye-bye to 60% of the total dollar amount of extended credit.
The cuts mean two things for the industry. First, it's proof positive that lending standards were waaaay out of control in recent years. Card issuers offered credit at levels that could make some subprime mortgage shops look conservative. If you had a heartbeat and a mailbox, you qualified for about as much money as you could ask for.
But those glory days are coming back to haunt the industry in a big way. Charge-off rates are blowing through the roof. (Charge-offs are loans that banks write off because they don't think they'll be able to collect on them.) That isn't a shocker, but the speed at which things are deteriorating is.
For example, here's how net charge-offs at the biggest card companies looked over the past three years:
Company 2008 2007 2006 AXP 5.5% 3.5% 3.3% C 6.9% 4.3% 4.0% Capital One 6.3% 4.0% 3.1% BAC 6.7% 4.9% 3.8% JPM 5.0% 3.7% 3.3% DFS 5.0% 3.8% 4.0%
A big increase from 2007 to 2008, which was to be expected. But look at how much worse the most recent numbers are for a couple of card giants we have data for:
Company
February 2009 Charge-off Rate (annualized)
American Express
8.70%
JPMorgan Chase
6.35%
Data from Capital IQ (a division of Standard & Poor's) and SEC filings.
The default rates at Citigroup and Capital One both steadily approached 10% in February as well. Things are getting ugly quickly. Some analysts think average charge-offs could hit 9% to 10% this year, meaning the increase in defaults that sent card stocks tumbling in the past several months could be just a taste of things to come.
But that isn't even the worst of it
The second, and most important, implication of slashing existing card lines is the impact it could have on card processors Visa (NYSE: V) and MasterCard (NYSE: MA) -- companies that don't take credit risk, but instead make money on each transaction.
The two have been riding a global shift of consumers switching to a cashless society. Their growth potential is huge, the story goes, and investors accordingly bid up shares to multiples that leave little room for error. Even in this market, Visa trades at more than 20 times the estimates for its 2009 earnings per share; MasterCard at about 16 times. While the shares of both have plunged since last summer, the companies are still valued on the assumption that plastic transactions will grow by leaps and bounds indefinitely.
But now that a full 60% of credit lines could go up in smoke, you have to ask how feasible those growth assumptions really are. No, a 60% cut in existing credit lines obviously won't translate to a 60% drop in credit transactions, and plenty of transactions could simply shift from credit to debit. But it will have an impact on the group of consumers whose credit card is their sole means of survival during an unemployment spell -- a group whose ranks are growing by the minute. Factor in a negative savings rate during the boom years, and the amount of consumers who thought a credit card counted as an emergency fund is probably larger than we'd like to think.
Bottom line
Full-service card companies like American Express and Discover already trade like the world is coming to an end -- which it may be -- but Visa and MasterCard are two that could really get creamed if the shift from paper to plastic starts to slow. These are both great companies that have a stranglehold on the industry, but it's dangerous to assume business will flourish indefinitely while the industry as a whole is being flipped on its head.
"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times; it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness;
-- Charles Dickens
hi 69' ..thnx for the analyse.. much appreciated
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Everyone is responsible for their own entry & exit points.
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