Replies to post #129700 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[Tadasana]

thanks alphapuppy, nice work! Has a nice ring to it, Statistically Significant! I like that!

[exwannabe]

Sorry, but the K/M chart you just posted is impossible (no math can create it).

The 7 events at 35 months dropped the curve about 25%, implying 28 or so were at risk, yet only 2 censors (and no events) were post that point.

OK, maybe you want to add 20 more censors in at 35 months and did not show it well? No math there either, as you they did not enroll 60 patients in a single month.

Further, it should be obvious that you have a lack of censors from 20-27 months on the treatment arm. That means you think all (but 1) that enrolled in summer/fall '15 have evented. Strange, I guess the German "optimization" is killing patients.

All you are doing is trying to draw K/M charts that show what you want to show. That is not a model.

[aboobmove]

Alpha,

Thanks for the effort. A couple of questions:

1. Is IMUC data the best basis to use? Is there any other data set to compare to? My worry is that IMUC is a company with a market cap of $2.5 million, which means what IMUC has done is totally a BS.

2. With your model, a p-value of 0.029 looks great. I assume that's the best senerio? What do it look like if more stringent conditions were used? What's the worst senerio? How much can we give?

Nonetheless, a great analysis!