Their case is different, it's in refractory GBM. Patients who fail all other treatments. They enrolled their Phase II in 3 months. It is going to be designed as an Open study. They can stop the study early if results are trending well. It is what I expect, and early interim stop. Results will be in by next year assuming the same quick enrollment timeline.
I owe you a post response, combining them:
"showed up" and thus "revealed itself" ... and it may never go lower. We do not have to break any upper resistance for the $2.11 low to have revealed itself. -- Evaluate
Technicals are lagging indicators, you can only see after it happens. It's too soon to tell if it's the bottom. But yes, $2.11 may be the bottom. However, right now, $1.89 is within the Boillinger range, and it will depend buys come in at $2.11, assuming it is tested, whether it holds up or not.
You mention you believe the bottom "is very close". However, you suggest that folks WAIT TO ADD if they are contemplating adding. Seems like if you believe that the SP is VERY NEAR the bottom, then one might well want to add right now rather than seeing whether it might just drop a tad more .... especially if you believe there might be a wildcard looming ... and if you believe the odds are reasonably good that DCVax might be pretty effective ... and a much higher SP could then be expected. In other words, if the stock has reasonable chance to go to $30, then why not buy now at $2.30 instead of waiting to see if your hunch might be right that it might drop down just a tad more ... to $1.99 for example. If it doesn't, then you may have lost a (another) good buying opportunity. -- Evaluate
When I said wait to add, I was referencing the post I had written a couple of days earlier while the stock closed at $2.89. Folks were already underwater, and if they were going to add, I suggested that it was going to fall below $2.50, and in fact it did. I do not want to see posters down on their new shares too. I'd rather see that they dollar cost average a level that entices new shareholders to get in. I also suggested that people only add if they feel comfortable with holding their shares until results come in. The market cap may end up being depressed and remain below the Fuererstein Ratain Rule for the duration of the study. It depends on what news is reported and when. It depends if shorts cover. It depends if new shares come in. And it depends if old shareholders sell. Lots of variables.
In Ready's case, my hope is that he adds back below a price he paid previously and that he does trade the shares to get his money back if he wants to get out. No reason for shorts to have his money. I do believe a wild card is looming but it may be months away, so who knows what the stock price will be at when news is reported. Money here may be stagnant for a while. No one knows. Again until momentum is able to get over previous supports which have now turned into resistance, no one will no if this is the bottom. The stock could trend lower.
You mention that you "are never concerned at where you get in", since you can "always add & trade my way out of a losing position" (provided no bankruptcy). So ... does that mean you would have no concerns about getting in at say $12/share .... even if it drops to $2.30/share, "since you can always get back out of this losing situation? I would think that you would always want to have some concern about where you get in. -- Evaluate
Correct. It means I'm not concerned when I get in. However, I now only get into stocks that I feel are fundamentally UNDERVALUED. Market caps dictate value, and of course, their respective share of the market they might get upon approval. I like to get into a position and then I can be pickier about where I add. But do understand that I only buy stocks that I'm not afraid to hold in the event that I find myself down on my holdings. I never add all at once. And if it goes down by 90%, believe it or not, I tend to be VERY happy about it. I like better deals. I don’t suffer from lack of confidence of my picks. It's all about DD. AND if I see that it's going to drop sharply due to an unforeseen event, well I can always sell my 25% of my shares while it's falling down and catch those same shares lower same day, essentially lowering my overall cost. Most of the times though, i don’t bother to do that, as I rather just add later on at bottoms, and then worry about trading out higher cost shares later once I have a better gauge of the market moves.
And yes, I can trade my way out of a losing position. The price of a holding does NOT matter to do that. AT ALL. Only your buys and sells do.
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