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Monday, December 30, 2013 11:03:01 AM
I don't see the population going into decline but constantly adding more than is dying off.
Predicting the future is always "dicey" but the rate of reproduction has slowed and is already close to the replacement rate... we just have an overstocking issue that will take a while to die off.
again, the fact is that the growth rate has been declining since the 60's. it hasn't fallen all the way to replacement level yet, but is close. The population numbers lag the rate because of the longevity of people. This is in contrast to the estimates and projections by the groups you displayed. Don't get me wrong, we have probably exceeded the carrying capacity of the planet already, what i am showing is the actual census data. It is interesting that the explosion was simultaneous with the decline in infant mortality rate about a hundred years ago or so.
A future declining population is not much consolation for those starving now... what i think this chart is showing is that the corner will be turned even without a major catastrophic event. Looking at the past exponential growth isn't really all that helpful as both lifespan and infant survival gains combined to form a once in a species bubble that is likely to self-correct in a few decades. the question is will we have fouled the planet to the point of an abrupt crash or will we have the genetic wisdom and multiple feedback mechanisms for a soft landing.
Predicting the future is always "dicey" but the rate of reproduction has slowed and is already close to the replacement rate... we just have an overstocking issue that will take a while to die off.
again, the fact is that the growth rate has been declining since the 60's. it hasn't fallen all the way to replacement level yet, but is close. The population numbers lag the rate because of the longevity of people. This is in contrast to the estimates and projections by the groups you displayed. Don't get me wrong, we have probably exceeded the carrying capacity of the planet already, what i am showing is the actual census data. It is interesting that the explosion was simultaneous with the decline in infant mortality rate about a hundred years ago or so.
A future declining population is not much consolation for those starving now... what i think this chart is showing is that the corner will be turned even without a major catastrophic event. Looking at the past exponential growth isn't really all that helpful as both lifespan and infant survival gains combined to form a once in a species bubble that is likely to self-correct in a few decades. the question is will we have fouled the planet to the point of an abrupt crash or will we have the genetic wisdom and multiple feedback mechanisms for a soft landing.
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