Elliott Wave TRIGGERS and TARGETS

[TREND1]

wednesday update by tony caldaro
SHORT TERM: market continues to rise, DOW +5

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.7%. European markets opened higher and gained 0.6%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 Building permits hit a 4 year high: 894K vs 803K, as did Housing starts: 872K vs 750K. Nevertheless, the market opened flat at SPX 1455, dipped to 1454, and then started to rally. Around 12:30 the SPX touched 1462, displayed a negative divergence, and then started to pullback. About one hour later the SPX hit 1456 and then rebounded. After hitting SPX 1462 again, around 3:30, the market dipped to end the day at 1461.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds lost 24 ticks, Crude slipped 10 cents, Gold added $1, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1440 and 1386 pivots, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, then the Philly FED and Leading indicators at 10:00.

The market opened flat today then rallied higher. This rally has now retraced 80% of the 45 point decline from SPX 1471-1426. At today's high both the DOW and SPX were less than 1% below their bull market highs.

***** Currently we still have the SPX/DOW still in confirmed uptrends, and the NDX/NAZ in confirmed downtrends.

A fragmented market. Last night we posted two potential counts on the SPX/DOW hourly charts. The SPX count suggests the uptrend topped at SPX 1471/75, and the current rally is a B wave. The DOW count suggests the uptrend is still onoging, and the recent low only ending Int. wave iv with Int. v currently underway. Both counts are valid until the market tips its hand, one way or the other. Remember, the current fragmentation is only short to medium term activity, and does not effect the long term bull market.

Short term support remains at the 1440 pivot and SPX 1422/27, with resistance at SPX 1463/64 and the 1499 pivot. Short term momentum continues to display a negative divergence. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the swing level now around SPX 1447. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend in jeopardy

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp