Elliott Wave TRIGGERS and TARGETS

[TREND1]

SURVEY as of 11//5/12
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[TREND1]

*****THIS BOARD IS CLOSED.*****
WHY?
MOVED TO E-Wave for the S&P 500 Index
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http://investorshub.advfn.com/E-Wave-for-the-S&P-500-Index-24516/

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[RCKS]

Pretzel view and charts:

"Last week the market gave several buy signals, but Friday's action aborted some of those signals. Hourly MACD on the S&P 500 (SPX) flipped to a sell signal, and several markets formed very bearish reversal candles.

The good news is my short-term target from Wednesday (of 1430-1432) was reached before the market reversed, capturing 20 SPX points of profit. The bad news is the intermediate-term outlook has been clouded by the strength of Friday's reversal, and bulls will need to reverse the market directly to maintain their hopes. Trade below 1403 SPX would suspend the potential intermediate turn I talked about in Friday's article."

[TREND1]

Weekend Review by tony caldaro

REVIEW

The US trading week began on pause, as exchanges were closed ahead of the expected Hurricane Sandy. Weather forecasters probably saved thousands of lives as they correctly anticipated the westward turn of Superstorm Sandy into the east coast. Kudos to them! As a result of the storm the NYSE was closed for four straight days, for the first time since the Blizzard of 1888. After a quiet opening on wednesday, the market surged on thursday (the first day of the month), and then gave it all back on friday. For the week the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.3%. Asian markets gained 0.8%, European markets gained 0.5%, and the DJ World index rose 0.6%. On the economic front positive reports outnumbered negative reports 13 to 3. On the downtick: the monetary base, the WLEI and the unemployment rate rose. On the uptick: personal income/spending, PCE prices, ISM manufacturing, Case-Shiller, the Chicago PMI, the ADP index, construction spending, auto sales, the monthly payrolls report, consumer confidence, factory orders, and weekly jobless claims declined. Next week we will get reports on ISM services, Consumer sentiment and Consumer credit.

LONG TERM: bull market

For the past few months we have observed the economy improving week after week, while the stock market has rallied and recently corrected. While the stock market has remained in a long term wave pattern since the spring of 2009. The economy, however, has had several starts and stops during this period. Recently the economy has been improving since the fall of 2011. This is exactly when Primary wave II bottomed in the stock market. Until we observe a 47% reading, or lower, on the WLEI, (it's currently 55.9%), we expect the economy to continue to grow.

We have been counting this bull market as Cycle wave [1]. These types of bull markets unfold in five Primary waves. Primary waves I and II completed in 2011, and Primary wave III has been underway since that low. Primary wave I divided into five Major waves with a subdivided Major wave 1. Primary wave III appears to be following a similar path, as Major 1 has also subdivided in five Intermediate waves. Major wave 3, however, also appears to be subdividing into five Intermediate waves as well.



The weekly chart displays this entire pattern, and the bull/bear wave patterns that preceeded it. The weekly MACD continues to display typical bull market characteristics: remaining above neutral most of the time. The weekly RSI is bullish as well, with extremely overbought reading during uptrends and barely oversold during downtrends. Currently the RSI is quite close to the typical oversold level, for Intermediate wave ii's, during this bull market. This is noted by the green arrows. The bull market remains on track.



MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

For the past few weeks we have observed a downtrend unfold in the four major indices. This downtrend is likely to be Intermediate wave ii of Major wave 3. The DOW completed a nice five waves up from early June into its October uptrend high. The SPX, however, displayed another fifth wave failure during its uptrend. Reaching a wave 3 high at SPX 1475, then a wave 5 high at 1471. This is the second fifth wave failure in a row for the SPX. This may be a characteristic of Primary wave III. Keep in mind the DOW is the bellwether index, and the SPX is the traders index.



After the SPX topped at 1471 it started what appears to be an ABC downtrend. Wave A declined to SPX 1426, wave B rallied to SPX 1464, and wave C has thus far declined to 1403. As we have noted before, wave A could have been counted as a three or a five. With this in mind it made it a bit difficult to anticipate the wave structure of wave C. After this week's activity it appears the short term count has finally cleared up. More on this in the short term section.

While the downtrend was underway we made some calculations for Fibonacci wave relationships, and downtrend retracement levels. We arrived with three levels. First at the OEW 1386 pivot range, (1379-1393), wave C = 1.618 wave A and represents a 38.2% retracement of Intermediate wave i. Next is the OEW 1363 pivot range, (1356-1370), which represents a 50% retracement. Then SPX 1345/46 which represents a 61.8% retracement, and where wave C = 2.618 wave A. Currently we are expecting the OEW 1386 pivot level to provide support for this downtrend. This correction has already unfolded for about one month with less than a 5% decline. Usually steeper corrections, of this degree, decline quite rapidly in the same period of time. Medium term support remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots.


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SHORT TERM

Short term support is at SPX 1413/16 and SPX 1402/03, with resistance at SPX 1422/27 and the 1440 pivot. Short term momentum ended the week quite oversold. The short term OEW charts flipped up and down this week, ending negatively biased, with the swing level now at SPX 1422.



The internal wave structure of this Intermediate wave ii correction has been a bit tricky to decipher. After this week's market activity the structure is beginning to look a bit clearer. The first decline, wave A, appears to be an abc within itself: SPX 1431-1444-1426. Then there was a B wave rally. This second decline, wave C, also appears to be dividing into an abc: SPX 1403-1434-and now c of C underway. This suggests either a retest of support at SPX 1402/03, a slightly lower low at SPX 1396/98, or a drop to the OEW 1386 pivot range. Whatever the actual outcome, it is most likely to occur this week. Best to your trading!
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FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets were mostly higher on the week for a net gain of 0.8%. Japan, S. Korea and Singapore are currently in confirmed downtrends.

The European markets were nearly all higher for a net gain of 0.5%. France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the STOX are currently all in confirmed downtrends.

The Commodity equity group were mixed for a net gain of 0.8%. Brazil and Russia are in confirmed downtrends.

The DJ World index is downtrending but was higher on the week for a gain of 0.6%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are now uptrending, but still choppy, and gained 0.2% on the week.

Crude remains in its two month downtrend losing 1.6% on the week. A positive divergence may be setting up shortly.

Gold tumbled on friday, remains in a downtrend, and lost 2.0% on the week.

The USD is now uptrending and gained 0.7% on the week.

NEXT WEEK

On monday we have ISM services at 10:00. Tuesday: Election day. Wednesday: Consumer credit. Thursday: weekly Jobless claims and the Trade deficit. Then on friday: Consumer sentiment, Export/Import prices and Wholesale inventories. The ECB meets on thursday, with a press conference to follow. The FED has nothing scheduled. Best to your week!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

[TREND1]

friday update by tony caldaro
SHORT TERM: gap up opening faded again, DOW -139

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.1%. European markets opened lower but gained 0.3%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight until the monthly Payrolls report: +171K vs +114K, with the Unemployment rate: 7.9% vs 7.8%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1433, hit 1434 in the first few minutes, then began to pullback. At 10:00 Factory orders were reported higher: +4.8% vs -5.2%. The pullback continued until 11:00 when the SPX hit 1424. After a bounce to SPX 1427 by 1:00 the market pulled back again. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1413 and ended the week at 1414.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -1.00%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.20%. Bonds gained 1 tick, Crude slid $2.15, Gold dropped $35, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Last night the FED reported the Monetary base was lower: $2.642 tln vs $2.652 tln.
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Today the WLEI was reported lower: 55.9% vs 56.0%.
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The market gapped up at the open today, and then closed the upside gap before noon. This is the third consecutive gap up opening, in the past two weeks, that has acted this way. At the open the SPX was within the range of the 1440 pivot. At the close it had broken below support at SPX 1422/27 to lower support at 1413/16. This should be a very interesting weekend review.

Short term support drops back to SPX 1413/16 and 1402/03, with resistance again at 1422/27 and the 1440 pivot. Short term momentum displayed a negative divergence right after today's open, and ended the day quite oversold. The short term OEW charts turned negative again this afternoon, with the swing level now around SPX 1422. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

[RCKS]

Pretzel view and charts:

"My work suggests that an intermediate low is in place, and the market is now headed toward the (first) intermediate target of 1480-1490, but any trade beneath 1403 would invalidate that outlook. The first step for bulls to gain confidence is to overlap the key 1430.64 price point. Conversely, over the short-term, sustained trade beneath 1416 could suggest problems for the bull case."

[TREND1]

thursday update by tony caldaro
SHORT TERM: market rallies, DOW +136

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5%. European markets opened higher and gained 1.3%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:15 the ADP index was reported higher: 158K vs 88K. Then at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 363K vs 369K. The market opened higher at SPX 1415 and started to rally. At 10:00 ISM manufacturing was reported higher: 51.7 vs 51.5, Construction spending higher: +0.6% vs -0.6%, Consumer confidence was reported at a 4 year high: 72.2 vs 70.3, and Auto sales were reported higher. The rally continued until around noon when the SPX hit 1428. After a small pullback to SPX 1424 by 2:00 the market tried to rally again. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1428 again and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +1.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.45%. Bonds lost 9 ticks, Crude gained 70 cents, Gold slid $7, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Tomorrow: the monthly Payrolls report at 8:30, then Factory orders at 10:00.

The market opened higher today, quickly breaking out of its recent SPX 1403-1421 trading range. Then it rallied slightly through the SPX 1422/27 resistance area, when hitting 1428. After that the rally stalled, but remained within a four point range for the rest of the day. Today's 16 point rally is the best one we have seen since the B wave rally of this month long correction. Certainly looks like the path of least resistance is now up. However, to get all the indices aligned again we would like to see at least a retest of the lows in the next few days. If this does not occur, and the market continues to rally, we will have to assume the downtrend ended at SPX 1403. We can currently count three waves off that low: SPX 1419- 1406-1428.

Short term support is now at SPX 1422/27 and 1413/16, with resistance at the 1440 pivot and SPX 1463/64. Short term momentum was quite overbought today, and remained overbought at the close. The short term OEW charts turned positive today, for the first time since SPX 1450, with the swing level now at 1422. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

[TREND1]

wednesday update by tony caldaro
SHORT TERM: US markets open, DOW -11

Yesterday the FED issued the following press release: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20121030a.htm. Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.8%. European markets opened lower and lost 0.8%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened higher at SPX 1414. The SPX had closed at 1412 on friday. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported slightly higher: 49.9 vs 49.7. The market continued to rally until just before 10:00 when the SPX reached 1419, hit short term overbought, and then began to pullback. At 12:30 the SPX had pulled back to 1406, and then tried to rally. Around 3:30 the SPX hit 1414, then pulled back into a 1412 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.50%. Bonds gained 9 ticks, Crude rose 45 cents, Gold rallied $9, and the USD was lower. Medium term support for the SPX remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Tomorrow: the ADP index at 8:15; weekly Jobless claims at 8:30; ISM manufacturing, Consumer confidence and Construction spending at 10:00; then monthly Auto sales in the afternoon.

The market opened slightly higher today, rallied above friday's high 1417, then pulled back to 1406. This is the first time, in the past seven trading sessions, that the SPX did not make a lower low. This market has remained a bit choppy since October 23rd. Trading within a narrow SPX 1403-1421 range, with only a slight downward drift. We do expect this pattern to end soon, along with the Intermediate wave ii downtrend.

Short term support remains at SPX 1402/03 and SPX 1396/98, with resistance at SPX 1413/16 and SPX 1422/27. Short term momentum hit overbought today, then ended the day above neutral. The short term OEW charts remain negatively biased with the swing level now around SPX 1421. Best to your trading and welcome back!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrending

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

[RCKS]

Pretzel view and charts:

"Despite two days of storm-related market closures, there's been no material change in the outlook since Friday. It is still anticipated that the market is likely to find a bottom in this zone and head toward 1480 -- though if for some reason it doesn't, then things could get very bearish."

[TREND1]

Thanks for info.

[NASARAVI]

Trend1;

The nature and character of the sto(5,1) will change based on whether the MACD is below zero or above zero.

as long as MACD signal and trigger are above zero, one can buy every dip of sto(5,1) below 20.

Once the MACD starts coming or is below zero, the relationship becomes highly non-linear and could be correlated with higher sto values.....hard to dicern.

regards.

[TREND1]

northam
Look at Tony's buy and sell
Look where the STO(5,1) is at those points.
One would tend to wait until the STO(5,1)
gave a BUY and SELL . IMHO.
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SPX_D_MID_TERM

[TREND1]

northam and others.
I can see your point of view.
Let me explain how I follow TONY
Only follow Tony's medium tern
Do not follow Tony's Short or Long term any more.
For Medium Term I look for three words
(1) UP
(2) DOWN
(3) NEUTRAL

PS: Have given up trying to follow Pretzel or any other EWAVER.

PS2: What I try to get from following any one is the "FEEL OF THE MARKET"

[northam43]

He still has not called a medium downtrend. The Weekly has now confirmed a Phase 1, the SPX has dropped over 70 points from the 52 week high.

[TREND1]

weekend update by tony caldaro
REVIEW

The market continued to correct this week, as it has for most of October. After starting the week at SPX 1433, it quickly dropped to 1408 by early tuesday morning. Then for the rest of the week the market tried to rally but ended with a slightly lower low every day, right into friday. For the week the SPX/DOW were -1.65%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.55%. Asian stocks lost 1.0%, European stocks lost 1.7%, and the DJ World index was -1.7%. On the economic front things continue to improve: positive reports outpaced negative ones 6 to 3. On the downtick: consumer sentiment, new home prices and the WLEI. On the uptick: new/pending home sales, FHFA housing prices, durable goods orders, Q3 GDP and weekly jobless claims declined. While this week's market action was mostly technical due to the lack of economic reports. Next week the will likely be all about the economy. The monthly Payrolls report highlights the week, with Auto sales and the Chicago PMI.

LONG TERM: bull market

While recent corporate earnings reports have been rather flat, we have been observing a pick up in the economy over the past several months. This week's Q3 GDP report, (+2.0% vs +1.3%), added some support to our observations. This bull market has displayed seasonal tendencies as it has unfolded. Q2 has consistently created a market peak followed by a correction. While Q4 has consistently created a short/medium term low followed by a new/continued uptrend. This Q4 was no exception.

This bull market continues to unfold in clear Elliott waves in the DOW, but not so in the SPX. It appears the market's objective is to keep as many as possible on the sidelines, or looking for a bear market, while the bull market unfolds. This phenomenon has been most noticeable in Q2 and Q4 of this year. Both times the SPX failed to make a new print high during a fifth wave, while the DOW did not. Whether, or not, this continues into 2013 is yet to be seen. Nevertheless, the market's message is clear: the DOW is the bellwether index for the US market.



Our weekly chart continues to display the 2002-2007 bull market, the 2007-2009 bear market, and the current bull market from 2009. Since we counted the Mar 2009 low as a completed Supercycle wave zigzag. We have been anticipating a five Primary wave, Cycle wave [1] bull market to kickoff the next Supercycle wave. Thus far, Primary waves I and II completed at SPX 1371 and SPX 1075 in 2011. And, Primary wave III has been underway since that low. Primary wave I divided into five Major waves, with a subdividing Major wave 1. And, Primary wave III appears to be following the same path. Thus far, Major wave 1 subdivided into five Intermediate waves concluding in Q2 of 2012 at SPX 1422/17. Then after a Major wave 2 correction to SPX 1267, Major wave 3 began. There is now technical evidence that Major wave 3 will also subdivide into five Intermediate waves. We are carrying this count on the DOW charts. When the current correction concludes we will have a more precise idea of the most probable wave count.

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend likely underway

The recent uptrend began in early June at the Major wave 2 low. The uptrend progressed, in five waves, into early October in the DOW. The SPX failed by just five points to make a higher high at that time. The Tech indices, NDX/NAZ, topped in September and have been downtrending since then. Since the NDX/NAZ topped earlier they have been leading the Cyclical SPX/DOW lower.



We have been counting this decline, from the early October SPX 1471 high, as a simple ABC. Wave A SPX 1471-1426, wave B to 1464, and wave C still underway into the friday's low of 1403. Since the recent uptrend ended with a weak fifth wave, it created the possibility of a fairly steep correction: a 50% to 61.8% retracement. Thus far this has not occurred as the SPX is down less than 5%.

Last weekend we posted some Fibonacci/retracement levels suggesting important support levels for this correction. At SPX 1391/93, we will have a 38.2% retracement of the uptrend and wave C = 1.618 wave A. Then SPX 1369 represents a 50.0% retracement, and SPX 1345/46 a 61.8% retracement with wave C = 2.618 A. Since the first two of the levels, SPX 1391/93 and SPX 1368, are within the range of the OEW 1386 and 1363 pivots we will default to the pivots as support. Medium term support remains at the 1386, 1372 and 1363 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots.

SHORT TERM

Short term support is at SPX 1402/03 and 1396/98, with resistance at SPX 1413/16 and 1422/27. Short term momentum ended the week just above neutral. The short term OEW charts remain negatively biased from SPX 1448, with the swing level now around 1423.



The internal wave structure of the ABC decline from SPX 1471 is a bit difficult to interpret. One view of wave A suggests it was five waves down, and another view suggests it was a smaller abc. Wave C is even more complex. As a result of this short term complexity we need to rely more on the daily and weekly charts. And, of course, the OEW pivots.

Currently the weekly RSI is sufficiently oversold to start looking for a low. Previous Intermediate wave ii lows have occurred just below the current level. The daily RSI is currently in oversold territory. But the MACD could drop a bit further, suggesting a possible low as early as next week. With the SPX closing at 1412 on friday, one more push down into possibly the OEW 1386 pivot range could do it. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets were mostly lower on the week for a net loss of 1.0%. China and Japan remain in confirmed downtrends, but S. Korea looks quite weak.

The European market were mostly lower as well for a net loss of 1.7%. France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the STOX index all look weak.

The Commodity equity group were all lower on the week for a net loss of 2.6%. All three indices, Brazil, Canada and Russia look quite weak.

The DJ World index also looks weak and lost 1.7% on the week.

COMMODITIES

Bonds have remained in a choppy downtrend pattern since their peak in early June. Bonds gained 0.1% on the week and 10yr yields declined 18 basis point to 1.75%.

Crude continues to downtrend losing 4.8% on the week. The next support level looks like $83.65.

Gold continues to decline from the early October $1798 high. The next support appears to be around $1675.

The USD appears to be uptrending from the September DXY 78.60 low. It gained 0.6% on the week.

NEXT WEEK

A busy economic week ahead. Monday: Personal income/spending and PCE prices at 8:30. Tuesday: Case-Shiller and Consumer confidence. Wednesday: the ADP index and Chicago PMI. Thursday: weekly Jobless claims, ISM manufacturimg, Construction spending, and Auto sales. Friday: the Payrolls report and Factory orders. One speech on the schedule for the FED. On friday FED governor Tarullo speaks at Yale. Best to your weekend and week!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

[TREND1]

friday update by tony caldaro
SHORT TERM: new downtrend low, DOW +4

Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.1%. Europe opened lower, but gained 0.4%. US index futures were lower, and at 8:30 Q3 GDP came in higher than expected: +2.0% vs +1.3%. The market opened slightly lower at SPX 1412, bounced to 1417 in the first few minutes, then began to pullback. At 10:00 Consumer sentiment was reported lower: 82.6 vs 83.1. Then at 11:00 the FED released this: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20121026a.htm. The pullback continued until around noon when the SPX hit a new downtrend low at 1403. Then it started to rally. By 3:00 the SPX had rallied back to the high of the day at 1417. Then a pullback into the close ended the week at SPX 1412.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.20%. Bonds gained 21 ticks, Crude added 5 cents, Gold lost $1, and the USD was flat. Medium term support remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. The WLEI was reported slightly lower today: 56.0% vs 56.1%.

The market opened relatively flat today, bounced to SPX 1417, then rolled over to make a new downtrend low at 1403. After four days of bouncing around the SPX 1413/16 resistance area the market finally hit the SPX 1402/03 support area. After hittng the low, however, the market rallied right back to SPX 1417. While this market has worked its way lower this week, it certainly has been quite choppy since tuesday.

Short term support remains at SPX 1402/03 and then 1396/98, with resistance at SPX 1413/16 and then 1422/27. Short term momentum ended the week above neutral. The short term OEW charts remain negative, with the swing level now around SPX 1423. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend likely underway

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

[RCKS]

Pretzel:

http://www.pretzelcharts.com/

"I'm going to use an analogy I've used before, because I believe the current market fits: The market is like a rubber band stretched to its breaking point -- either it will snap back and begin a strong rally over the next few sessions (quite possibly as soon as today's session) or it could break.

As we look at the options, it's important to remember that QE-Infinity hasn't actually started yet. Some bears are calling QE-Infinity a "failure," and even the mainstream media (who should know better) has been guilty of this. The effects of the QE MBS (Mortgage-Backed Securities) purchases won't be seen until the Fed cash actually makes its way into the Primary Dealer accounts -- there was no liquidity flood released when the media announcement happened. And no liquidity added even once the first purchases were made, as MBS settlements are done on a forward basis. The first MBS purchases aren't scheduled to settle until November 14, so that's roughly when we'll finally begin seeing the "real" effects of QE-Infinity, which is anticipated to be inflationary (i.e.- rising equities and commodities prices).

The old adage of "don't fight the Fed" sticks in my mind going forward.

Yesterday's preferred short-term count played perfectly, as the market rallied up to my wave 4 label and reversed immediately to a new low. So, the short-term count was correct -- but what about the intermediate-term counts?


The predictive power behind Elliott Wave analysis is underpinned by two key strategies:

1. Using the available price action to attempt to anticipate the pattern that will unfold going forward.
2. Understanding the key levels where that anticipated pattern becomes invalidated and mutates into something else.

This is why I usually give both a preferred and alternate count. The preferred count is "here's what looks most likely, given the price pattern that's currently visible"; the alternate count is the "okay, that fell apart, so this might be unfolding instead.""

[TREND1]

*****Please take survey for ..Elliott Wave TRIGGERS and TARGETS
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board_surveymenu.asp?board_id=25386
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[TREND1]

By: TheWaveTrading | Thu, Oct 25, 2012

Despite the "bullish" reasons I mentioned yesterday which favored an oversold bounce, price did not kick off the expected rebound.

However since bears did not take the opportunity to extend the down leg in progress towards the next obvious support at 1396 and SPX ended the day with a an inverted hammer

I maintain my short term bullish bias.

Therefore if bulls are able to regain the old support now resistance at 1422 then the bounce could reach the range 1434 - 1437.

I expect the overdue bounce a selling opportunity since price should carry out at least one more down leg, which could complete the Double Zig Zag off the September 14 high.

I add this scenario to the Ending Diagonal option in the daily chart below (Black Count).

If the wave (B) rebound materializes then once it is in place we will have a potential extension target for the pending wave (C) down.

http://www.safehaven.com/article/27445/spx-follow-up-of-the-short-term-ewp

[TREND1]

thursday update by tony caldaro
SHORT TERM: gap up opening faded again, DOW +26

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5%. European markets opened higher, but lost 0.1%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 369K vs 388K, plus Durable goods orders were reported higher: +9.9% vs -13.2%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1418, and in the opening minutes hit 1421. Soon after, the market started to pullback. At 10:00 Pending home sales were reported higher: +0.3% vs -2.6%. The pullback continued. Just past 10:00 the FED released this: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20121025a.htm. Around noon the SPX hit 1405, a new low for this pullback/correction. Then the market tried to rally. Heading into the close the SPX rebounded to 1413 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.10%. Bonds lost 16 ticks, Crude added 45 cents, Gold gained $11, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Last night the FED reported New home prices slipped: $292.4K vs $293.9K. Tomorrow: Q3 GDP at 8:30, then Consumer sentiment around 10:00.

The market gapped up at the open today for the second day in a row. This has not occurred since late July. Unlike late July, however, when the market gained about 4% over those two days. The recent gap up openings were completely sold off, and the gaps were closed. Not unusual for downtrend behavior. Yesterday's selling led to a new downtrend low at SPX 1407, and today's did the same when the SPX hit 1405. We continue to target the SPX 1391/93 fibonacci/retracement area for the first test of a potential low.

Short term support remains at SPX 1402/03 and SPX 1396/98, with resistance at SPX 1413/16 and SPX 1422/27. Short term momentum spent most of the day below neutral. The short term OEW charts remain negatively biased, with the swing level now around SPX 1427. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend likely underway

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

[TREND1]

*****TONY_SSO_D_MID_TERM GAIN = 8.6%
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[RCKS]

Pretzel charts:

[TREND1]

*****TheWaveTrading | Wed, Oct 24, 2012


SPX has finally breached the pivot support at 1422.
Price is no longer in a trading range and clearly now the trend within the corrective pattern from the September 14 high is clearly heading south.

It is a fact that given the internal structure of the move from the September high price is involved in carrying out a Fibonacci retracement of the up leg off the June 4 lows.

As I have mentioned several times once 1422 is breached the next potential bottoming area is located in the range of 1396 and the trend line support in force since the October 2011 lows. Given that the rising 200 d MA is standing just below the trend line I don't not rule out that price may want to test its solidity.

http://www.safehaven.com/article/27430/spx-follow-up-of-the-short-term-ewp

[TREND1]

***** wednesday update by tony caldaro
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend likely underway

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.3%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.4%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market gapped up at the open to SPX 1418. The SPX had closed at 1413 yesterday. Within the first few minutes the SPX hit its high for the day at 1420, and then began to pullback. At 10:00 New home sales were reported higher: 389K vs 373K, and the FHFA housing price index rose: +0.7% vs +0.2%. The market pulled back to SPX 1412 by about noon, then bounced to 1416 ahead of the FOMC statement: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20121024a.htm. After a copy and paste report the market then headed lower. In the final hour of trading the SPX hit 1407, then bounced to close at 1409.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.35%. Bonds lost 3 ticks, Crude slid 95 cents, Gold dipped $5, and the USD was flat. Medium term support remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims and Durable goods orders at 8:30, then Pending home sales at 10:00. The first look at Q3 GDP is on friday.

The market gapped up at the open today, made it to SPX 1420, and then headed back down for the rest of the day. In the last hour of trading the Techs made a new low for their downtrend, and the Cyclicals did as well. We continue to believe this current decline is targeting the SPX 1391/93 fibonacci/retracement area next. At these levels we would have a 38.2% retracement of the uptrend, and Minor C will equal 1.618 Minor A. There are a few short term support levels, just under today's low, before that could occur.

Short term support remains at SPX 1402/03 and SPX 1396/98, with resistance at SPX 1413/16 and SPX 1422/27. Short term momentum hit neutral today, then ended the day slightly oversold. The short term OEW charts remain negatively biased from SPX 1448, with the swing level now around 1431. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend likely underway

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

[RCKS]

Pretzel charts:

[TREND1]

Is THEWAVETRADING just using SUPPORT and RESISTANCE ?
You decide for your self...
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[TREND1]

By: TheWaveTrading | Tue, Oct 23, 2012
This EWAVER also sounds like a Trend follower. IMHO
WHY?
Because he shows note on chart ...
If it breaks 1422 it is going to 1397



Sorry but today I don't have any inspiration to write a "productive" technical update so I will keep it extremely short.

Yesterday bears failed to trigger sell stops below the critical pivot support at 1422, instead dip buyers prevented a slump and achieved a potential bullish candlestick with a large lower shadow.

Despite the set up clearly favors the bulls I remain skeptical as long as bulls seal the deal by reclaiming the 20 d MA, which stands at 1445.

The internal structure of the down leg off the October 18 lower high is not clearly impulsive hence maybe we don't have a terminal pattern.

This is why in the daily chart I put a question mark at yesterday's lod.

http://www.safehaven.com/article/27416/spx-follow-up-of-the-short-term-ewp

[TREND1]

PRETZEL_MID_TERM
On 10/22/12 now says bottom = 1422-1397
or bears take over.
This EWAVER sounds like a trend follower. IMHO.

[TREND1]

TONY_MID_TERM
SPX_D

[TREND1]

tuesday update by tony caldaro
SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW -243

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.4%. European markets opened higher, but lost 1.9%. US index futures were sharply lower overnight. As the FED started its two day FOMC meeting the market gapped down at the open to SPX 1422 and continued to slide. Around 10:30 the SPX hit 1408, setting up a slight positive divergence, and then tried to rally. At 2:00 the SPX hit 1418 and then began to pullback again. After hitting SPX 1412 around 2:30, the market bounced to 1419 by 3:00, and then pulled back to end the day at 1413.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -1.65%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.95%. Bonds gained 11 ticks, Crude slid $2.10, Gold dropped $22, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Tomorrow: New homes sales and the FHFA housing price index at 10:00, followed by the FED's FOMC statement in the afternoon.

The market gapped down at the open today for the first time since monday October 8th. In the first few minutes the SPX broke below support at 1422/27. Then it broke support at SPX 1413/16, one half hour later, on its way to 1408. At that low it set up a slight positive divergence and tried to rally. Also at the low our Minor wave C (1464-1408) is now longer than Minor wave A (1471-1426). Suggesting wave C may target the 1.618 relationship at SPX 1391 next. Over the weekend we noted the Fibonacci/retracement levels at: SPX 1391/93, SPX 1369, and SPX 1345/46.

Also last weekend we updated the DOW charts with the most probable long term count. This suggests the recent uptrend high was the end of Intermediate wave i of Major wave 3, and not Major wave 3 in its entirety. We also posted a potential bearish count at the very end of the public stock charts list. Recently there has been some interest in a potential bull market top, at the recent uptrend high, in our OEW group. It's October! After reviewing the entire bull market. The possibility of an upcoming end to a potential bearish pattern did arise. This pattern suggests there is at least one more uptrend high, after this correction concludes, before a potential diagonal triangle top could form. Right now, this is only a 20% probability.

Short term support is at SPX 1402/3 then SPX 1396/98, with resistance at SPX 1413/16 and SPX 1422/27. Short term momentum is displaying a slight positive divergence at today's low. The short term OEW charts remain negatively biased, with the swing level around SPX 1437. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend in jeopardy

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

[northam43]

If we get a confirmed Weekly Phase 1 on Friday, lets see if Tony's medium term market trend has changed to down.

[TREND1]

monday update by tony caldaro
SHORT TERM: correction/pullback continues, DOW +2

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5%. European markets opened lower and lost 0.5%. US index futures were lower overnight as well. The market opened one point below friday's SPX 1433 close. In the first half hour it dipped to SPX 1429, bounced to 1435, and then headed lower. Around 11:30 the SPX touched 1427, bounced to 1432 by noon, and then head lower again. Then around 1:30 the SPX hit the lower limit of support at 1422, and rallied into a 1434 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.50%. Bonds lost 13 ticks, Crude slid $1.35, Gold added $5, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. The FED starts its two day FOMC meeting tomorrow.

The market opened relatively flat today, pulled back in a stair-step decline to the lower end of the SPX 1422/27 support zone, then rallied into the close. This afternoons rally, SPX 1422-1434, is the best rally since the recent 42 point decline began from SPX 1464. At the lows, the hourly RSI hit one of its lowest levels of the entire year. It was reset to neutral this afternoon when the market rallied. At the close the market ended the day relatively unchanged.

Short term support remains at SPX 1422/27 and 1413/16, with resistance at the 1440 pivot and SPX 1463/64. Short term momentum ended the day slightly above neutral. The short term OEW remain negatively biased with the swing level now at SPX 1443. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend in jeopardy

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

[RCKS]

Pretzel view and charts:

"I think it's easiest for readers to focus on the simple message in this chart:"

[TREND1]

friday update by tony caldaro
SHORT TERM: market pullback/correction continues, DOW -205

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.8%. US index futures were lower overnight. The market opened at SPX 1454, three points below yesterday's close, then continued to decline. At 10:00 Existing home sales were reported lower: 4.75 mln vs 4.82 mln. The decline continued throughout the afternoon until just before 3:00, when the SPX hit 1430. A small rally to SPX 1436 followed. Then the market dipped to end the week at SPX 1433.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -1.60%, and the NDX/NAZ were -2.30%. Bonds gained 12 ticks, Crude lost $2.15, Gold dropped $19, and the USD was higher. Medium term support drops to the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Last night the FED reported an increase in the Monetary base: $2.65 tln vs $2.59 tln, and an increase in the M1 multiplier: 0.911 vs 0.900. Today the WLEI was reported higher yet again: 56.1% vs 55.7%.

The market opened lower today and continued the decline that started around noon yesterday. After hitting resistance at SPX 1463/64 yesterday the market steadily declined until hitting 1430 today. Nearly the entire 2+% gain on the week was wiped out in a bit more than 24 hours. This type of market activity certainly looks like a C wave in the NDX/NAZ. And now, the SPX/DOW as well. More on this in the weekend update.

Short term support drops back to SPX 1422/27 and then 1413/16, with resistance at the 1440 pivot and SPX 1463/64. Shirt term momentum hit extremely oversold at the low. The short term OEW charts turned negative right after the open with the swing level now around SPX 1447. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend in jeopardy

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

[RCKS]

Pretzel view and charts:

"The intermediate outlook is materially unchanged and continues its bullish bias. The short-term outlook has become slightly ambiguous, but suggests a minor top may be near. It is currently expected that this will only be a short-term top, and that new swing highs will follow."

[TREND1]

THEWACETRADING: 10/17/12
The rebound is much stronger then I was expecting with price easily recovering above both the 10 & 20 d MA and achieving an eod print above the 0.618 retracement of the down leg off the October 5 lower high.

We have a daily Marubozu, which could be an exhaustion candlestick if today we have a small range body or a reversal bar.



Obviously the question that you should ask me is:

Is the correction over?

I am not stubborn, I never obstinate with a given EW count, but

so far I am firmly convinced that EW wise the pattern from the September 14 high needs a pending wave (C) down in order to be considered completed.


http://www.safehaven.com/author/607/thewavetrading

[TREND1]

thursday update by tony caldaro
SHORT TERM: techs decline again, DOW -8

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.2%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.3%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 388K vs 339K. The market opened lower at SPX 1458, three points below yesterday's close. In the opening minutes the SPX dipped to 1457 and then rallied to 1461 by 10:00. At 10:00 the Philly FED was reported positive: +5.7 vs -1.9, and Leading indicators were reported positive too: +0.6% vs -0.1%. The market pulled back to SPX 1456 by 10:30, then rallied to 1464 by noon. When GOOG's earnings miss was released, prematurely, the market began to pullback. At 2:30 the SPX hit 1453 then rallied to close at 1457.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.05%. Bonds lost 3 ticks, Crude slipped 20 cents, Gold slid $8, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1440 and 1386 pivots, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots. Tomorrow: Existing homes sales at 10:00, and it is Options expiration friday.

The market opened a bit lower today, bounced around, then made a new rally high at SPX 1464 around noon. After hitting resistance at SPX 1463/64, and GOOG's earnings report, the market started to pullback.

*****The pullback to SPX 1453 was the first significant one of the entire rally from last friday's low at SPX 1426. With the Tech stocks, NDX/NAZ, again under selling pressure this could be the beginning of the next leg down in the potential SPX/DOW downtrend. If not, the SPX/DOW is not likely to make much upside progress in this fragmented market. Unless, the NDX/NAZ reverse their downtrend and start uptrending again. With options expiration tomorrow the market may tip its hand friday/monday.

Short term support remains at the 1440 pivot and SPX 1422/27, with resistance at SPX 1463/64 and the 1499 pivot. Short term momentum declined from the negative divergence ending the day around neutral. Short term OEW charts remain positive with the swing level around SPX 1450. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend in jeopardy

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

[TREND1]

EWAVERS_TONY_PRETZEL_THEWAVETRADING_MID_TERM
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[TREND1]

THEWAVETRADING 10/14/12


PrintEmail


This weekend I don't have much new to say since price is following the scenario that I have laid out.

Last Friday's brief description remains my preferred road map:
¦"Price is involved in unfolding a corrective pattern from the September 14 high.
¦If price breaks the 1430 - 1422 key support layer then the current corrective EWP should at least extend towards the target = 1397 - 1395. I consider it a likely outcome.
¦Once price reaches the mentioned target and we have positive divergences then price should attempt to resume the intermediate up trend.
¦If price fails to establish a bottom then the next likely potential reversal zone is located in the range of the rising trend line support in force since the October 2011 lows and the 0.5 retracement of June's up leg where we also have the 200 d MA = 1370.

Since yesterday price negated an impulsive sequence from the October 5 lower high, the overall EWP is getting more complex and probably the final target will be closer to 1396 than 1370."

http://www.safehaven.com/article/27306/weekly-technical-analysis

[RCKS]

Pretzel view and charts:

"For several weeks, I have projected that after this correction completed, the market would make new swing highs for the intermediate term. In the most recent update, I discussed two short-term possibilities: a short-term turn near 1444-48 SPX, or a run directly to new swing highs. I listed 1453 as the key level to differentiate one outcome from the other, and the market both sailed through that level and also closed above it, which now causes me to favor the view that the bottom is in at 1425. It's simply going to take a break of that level for bears to get anything going at this point."

[TREND1]

EWAVERS_TONY_PRETZEL_THEWAVETRADING_MID_TERM
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THEWAVETRADING

[TREND1]

wednesday update by tony caldaro
SHORT TERM: market continues to rise, DOW +5

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.7%. European markets opened higher and gained 0.6%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 Building permits hit a 4 year high: 894K vs 803K, as did Housing starts: 872K vs 750K. Nevertheless, the market opened flat at SPX 1455, dipped to 1454, and then started to rally. Around 12:30 the SPX touched 1462, displayed a negative divergence, and then started to pullback. About one hour later the SPX hit 1456 and then rebounded. After hitting SPX 1462 again, around 3:30, the market dipped to end the day at 1461.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds lost 24 ticks, Crude slipped 10 cents, Gold added $1, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1440 and 1386 pivots, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, then the Philly FED and Leading indicators at 10:00.

The market opened flat today then rallied higher. This rally has now retraced 80% of the 45 point decline from SPX 1471-1426. At today's high both the DOW and SPX were less than 1% below their bull market highs.

***** Currently we still have the SPX/DOW still in confirmed uptrends, and the NDX/NAZ in confirmed downtrends.

A fragmented market. Last night we posted two potential counts on the SPX/DOW hourly charts. The SPX count suggests the uptrend topped at SPX 1471/75, and the current rally is a B wave. The DOW count suggests the uptrend is still onoging, and the recent low only ending Int. wave iv with Int. v currently underway. Both counts are valid until the market tips its hand, one way or the other. Remember, the current fragmentation is only short to medium term activity, and does not effect the long term bull market.

Short term support remains at the 1440 pivot and SPX 1422/27, with resistance at SPX 1463/64 and the 1499 pivot. Short term momentum continues to display a negative divergence. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the swing level now around SPX 1447. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend in jeopardy

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

[RCKS]

Pretzel day off

[TREND1]

tuesday update by tony caldaro
SHORT TERM: gap up opening continues rally, DOW +128

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5%. European markets opened higher and gained 1.7%. US index futures were higher overnight too. At 8:30 the CPI was reported positive: +0.6% vs +0.6%. At 9:15 Industrial production was also reported positive: +0.4% vs -1.2%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1446 and continued to rally. The SPX closed at 1440 yesterday. At 10:00 the NAHB index was reported at a 6 year high: 42 vs 41. The rally continued until around noon when the SPX hit 1456. Then with an extremely overbought short term condition the market started to pullback. Just past 3:00 the SPX hit 1451, and then rallied into the close to end the day at 1455.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +1.00%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.30%. Bonds lost 15 ticks, Crude added 25 cents, Gold rose $11, and the USD was lower. Medium term support rises back to the 1440 and 1389 pivots, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots. Tomorrow: Housing starts and Building permits at 8:30.

The market gapped up today, and continued yesterday's rally as the SPX hit 1456. This is now a 30 point rise in just two trading days. A bit more than a 61.8% retracement of the entire 45 point decline.

With the NDX/NAZ in a confirmed downtrend, and the SPX/DOW caught somewhere in the middle, the current situation is a tough call medium term.

The OEW short term charts, however, swung positive at the open for the first time since the recent decline began. Tech stocks and AAPL performed well, but the banks did not. Short term the market is positive but extremely overbought. The next pullback/decline should give us a clearer picture medium term.

Short term support is at the 1440 pivot and SPX 1422/27, with resistance at SPX 1463/64 and the 1499 pivot. Short term momentum ended the day quite overbought. The short term OEW charts turned positive with the swing level now SPX 1443. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend in jeopardy

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

[RCKS]

I don't disagree really.
His view is based on in E-Wave terms he thinks another wave back down fits best and percentage wise a lower low would be the more likely outcome.

[TREND1]

RCKS
I think what Pretzel is saying that price will hit Resistance
and not make it the "FIRST TIME"

But to say it will make a new LOWER LOW is more then I can see at this time.

SPX_60

[RCKS]

Pretzel view and charts:

"I realize that Elliott Wave Theory can be confusing at times, so please keep in mind that I am projecting two different time frames in this update (as in most updates):

1. On the longer time frames, the preferred view is that new swing highs north of 1480 will be made, one way or another. There are several more bearish alternate wave counts, but currently these appear to be long-shots; thus they will be discussed in more detail only if the market dictates.

2. On the shorter time frames, I'm slightly favoring the view that a new swing low (with a current target in the 1410-1420 SPX zone) will be made before the "final" low is in place and the market rallies beyond 1480. The first alternate short-term wave count is that the low is in place already, at SPX 1425."

[TREND1]

monday update by tony caldaro
SHORT TERM: market stages an oversold rally, DOW +95

On sunday FED chairman Bernanke's speech in Japan was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20121014a.htm. Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. European markets opened higher and gained 0.5%. US index futures were higher overnight as well. At 8:30 the NY FED was reported still contracting: -6.2 vs -10.4, but Retail sales were higher: +1.1% vs +0.9%. The market opened two points above friday's close to SPX 1431. Then after a further push higher to SPX 1433 the market pulled back. At 10:00 Business inventories were reported positive: +0.6% vs +0.8%. Around 10:30 the market hit SPX 1427, right at the 1422/27 support zone, and then began to rally. The rally continued until 1:00 when the SPX hit 1439, was slightly overbought, and it began to pullback again. By 3:00 the SPX hit 1434 then rallied into a 1440 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.75%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.70%. Bonds lost 1 tick, Crude slipped 20 cents, Gold lost $17, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Tomorrow: the CPI at 8:30, Industrial production at 9:15, then the NAHB index at 10:00.

The market opened a bit higher today, pulled back to support again at the SPX 1422/27 zone, then staged an oversold rally. The recent decline from SPX 1471-1426 can be counted as a five, or even a three, as there was only one significant rally before that low: 1431-1444. Today's rally can be counted from that SPX 1426 low and advanced to 1441 today. Making it the best rally since the decline began.

*****If this entire pullback was a C wave of Intermediate wave iv, as some have noted, the market should make new uptrend highs soon. If not, and this is just an oversold bounce in an ongoing downtrend,

considering the confirmed downtrends in the NDX/NAZ, then the OEW 1440 pivot range should again offer resistance to any further upside progress.

Short term support is at SPX 1422/27 and then 1413/16, with resistance at the 1440 pivot and SPX 1463/64. Short term momentum hit overbought today, and closed there. The short term OEW charts ended the day at neutral, with the swing level now SPX 1441. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend in jeopardy

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

[RCKS]

I agree but it is Pretzel's chart.

[RCKS]

Pretzel charts: