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The Ord Oracle By Tim Ord (12/21/11)_TY_George


* Wednesday, December 21, 2011


For 30 to 90 days horizons SPX: long the SPX at 1241.30 on 12/20/11.
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 173.59 on 9/21/11
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat



A possible Head and Shoulder bottom may be forming where the Head came in at the November low. We have a resistance zone form 125.5 to 127.5 ranges which is where Neckline lies from two different Head and Shoulders patterns. The Red Neckline is from the Head and Shoulders top where the May high was the Head. The smaller blue Neckline is the from the potential current Head and Shoulders bottom where the Head is the November low. A bullish intermediate term signal would be generated if the SPY rallied through the 125.50 – 127.50 range with a “Sign of Strength” (SOS). This condition would give an upside target to 150 on SPY. If an SOS fails to show up in the 125.50 to 127.50 range then that range will become resistance and market may fall back. Next chart will show this potential bullish setup.




Above is a potential analysis that may setup in the weeks ahead. There are a lot of Head and Shoulder patterns here but the large one that may be setting up is the one where the Head is the August to October bottom. The Neckline of this H&S comes in near 126 range and a large volume push through this level “Sign of Strength” (SOS) would confirm this pattern and give a target to 150 range on the SPY (SPX 1500). If this SOS is going to happen it will most likely hold off into January. Volume over the next week or so to finish off this year most likely will be below average. If a “Sign of Strength” does not appear through the 125 – 127 range on the SPY then market will form a high. As for right now a bullish signal has been triggered and trend remains up.




Above is a shorter term view for GDXJ. Yesterday’s rally jumped above the previous highs near 26 and implies that 26 range should now act as support. GDX did not jump above its previous highs and suggests GDXJ is stronger. Yesterday’s rally in GDXJ turned up the Slow Stochastics which was below 20 and suggest a rally may be beginning. Good rallies have formed when both the RSI hit below 30 and the Chaikin Oscillator traded below minus 2.5m and turn up together. On the current potential low the RSI hit below 30 and the Chaikin Oscillator hit below -5m which was more extreme and suggests a potential stronger rally. The monthly charts for the XAU/GOLD ratio gave a buy signal on the close of 9/30/11 and remains on a buy signal.
Long GDX 58.65 on 12/6/11. Long SLV at 29.48 on 10/20/11. Long GDXJ at 36.24 on 9/21/11. Long GLD at 173.59 on 9/21/11. Long BRD at 1.67 on 8/3/11. Long YNGFF .44 on 7/6/11. Long EGI at 2.16, on 6/30/11. Long GLD at 147.14 on 6/29/11; stop 170 hit = gain 15.5% . Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. We will hold as our core position in AUQ, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long cryxf at 1.82 on 2/5/08. KGC long at 6.07. Long AUQ average of 8.25. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html

George.