I presume you’re talking about a Judge’s decision on whether to issue a PI. Originally, I thought that the period after limited expedited discovery and before the Judge’s decision on a PI (i.e. the period we are in now) was the most likely time for a settlement to occur; it (IMO) still is the most likely time for a settlement in terms of probability density. However, the period in question runs for only seven days, so the absolute probability of a settlement during this seven-day period is modest; if I had to put a number on it, I would say 15%.
I think the cumulative probability of a settlement at some point before the litigation has run its course remains high.
“The efficient-market hypothesis may be the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated in any area of human knowledge!”
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