Wednesday, June 29, 2011 2:07:26 PM
Further information, like internal dialogs would make the IT allegations easier to prove - like who knew what - but beyond that they already have the key information that was provided to the HF and used for negotiation purposes. They have the trading records. The HF are already caught if the EC needs to pursue this path with all vigor.
Don't forget BR wouldn't really give the HF anything truly damaging to his cause, as he would lose control of that piece of information. This case is all about control.
I don't even think the IT is really the key issue, nor has it every really been. That is why the EC didn't pursue that avenue to begin with. With the allegations presenting themselves (thank your Nate) they have run with them. However, even now it is more about getting every little scrap of information available.
The EC will certainly use the IT as a weapon, don't get me wrong. However, this case has always and will always hinge on valuation. The EC has a good picture on valuation already. They are ready for battle at confirmation.
I still believe that the EC objection may not reach it to the public. The confirmation hearing itself is even less likely to begin. As was pointed out by another poster here today, POR 6.5 is DOA. The EC has been positioning themselves to get more power in these proceedings and that is happening. It may not always be obvious but it is there.
Don't forget the recent "failed" negotiations. I don’t think they were really a failure, only a way to insert more value in the discussion and give the EC more leverage if the confirmation becomes necessary. The EC never intended to accept the deal on the table; it was a puny offer as it was predicated on the GSA. While we want POR 6.5 to be done away with, the more important item is to destroy the GSA and get the FDIC and JPMC back to the bargaining table. Then we will be getting somewhere.
Hang tight everyone; this roller coaster has a few more twists and turns. When I saw the recent short report showing that shorts are back above 50M I knew nothing was imminent.
This is just my two cents worth. I'm with many folks here that get a little more anxious on days when the PPS takes a major drop. I have to remind myself to get away from my computer, get some fresh air, and then I can regain my perspective.
Listening to the proceedings today and not receiving everything the EC asked for was disappointing. However, this is only a little bump in the road and I'm sure not unexpected at SG. If this was really important you would have been more likely to have seen Susman attend personally. This wasn't a game changing hearing, save Susman for the really important hearings - and I don’t believe that Susman will be at the upcoming confirmation hearings either, if the current version makes it that far.
This post is my own opinion, and should not be relied on for your investment decisions.
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