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Re: Soslan post# 6345

Saturday, 01/15/2011 3:03:55 PM

Saturday, January 15, 2011 3:03:55 PM

Post# of 29204
Yes, the translation is correct,

Oh, I wasn't worried about the correctness of the language, I just wanted to be sure it was the right article that I found. I've not seen any of the automated translations that really get it all right.

It is too bad that we don't have a (preliminary?) replacement schedule that give time-frames, quantities and sizes of micro-turbines that might be used. And if they are to manufactured at the Russian facility or at the U.S. facility would be nice (if the principal parties would even release such information).

With over 2K units to be replaced, that could be used to project an addition to sales volume, over and above the already known backlog of ~US$89MM, IIRC, that should push the projected positive cash flow even higher and profitability to much earlier than the current analyst projections for profit/loss:

2011 (-0.12)
2012 (-0.04)
2013 +0.03
2014 +0.20

Assuming nothing else happened, if, say, 50% of the buses were to be replaced by the end of 2012, share price should spike immediately as that puts sales per quarter, from those buses alone, up by 125 micro-turbine units per quarter over a 24 month period. Added to existing backlog and typical new order flow we could expect, profitability should be either earlier, maybe 2012, or greater in magnitude in 2013.

Since DJ has stated that their current capacity is ~4K units per year in the current facilities by just adding lines, robotics and a few people, the bost in revenue would come without substantial cost increase and little or no CAPEX.

And regardless of that, positive free cash flow would be improved by a much larger degree than folks were expecting.

The fact that we see the price of CPST shares still where it is at, and still heavily shorted, seems to indicate that the news has not been properly evaluated yet or that the lack of a (preliminary?) schedule is keeping folks from assigning the proper weight to this kind of news.

Bill

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